Hillary Clinton Has The Most Statistically Improbable Coin-Toss Luck Ever

originally posted by: onequestion
a reply to: MarioOnTheFly

We're electing our president through coin tosses?

No, no, no what are you insane?

We select nominees through coin flips. If you want to become president you have to wrestle a bear.

I used to think the Republican side of American politics was the shady side...you know Florida and Al Gore, but...now I know for sure that Democrats are way, way shadier this year. Good lord!

The Republicans just schooled the Democrats on how to run a good clean Caucus. Lord help us!

a reply to: Swills

I leave ATS for 6 months and come back only to deal with people that can't answer direct questions.

very simple......seeing as Bern-out is in direct polar opposite of Paul, how in the hell can someone go from supporting Libertarian views to Progressive/Marxist views?

This is not very difficult.

a reply to: amazing

And with record turnout no less.

originally posted by: Aazadan

originally posted by: AugustusMasonicus
Just wondering if all the Sanders supporters are feeling Bernt today.

C'mere, let this Ron Paul supporter give you a hug. I know your anguish.

Not at all, he wasn't projected to win Iowa and he came extremely close. A small loss is still a big win for his campaign. He's also projected to win New Hampshire by a lot. If he loses there it will be a sad day, but a small loss in Iowa isn't a big deal at all.

It is for Hillary. This was supposed to be a decisive win for her
because she hit the bricks hard... in order ro cushion the blow
of having her gorgeous ample butt handed to her in NH.
The latter of those terms, if I keep visualizing the context--
is going to make me reflux my gumbo tonight.
It's not that I dislike Hillary, but I genuinely hate what she does.
On second thought I guess you are what you do, NM insteada NH.

originally posted by: amazing
I used to think the Republican side of American politics was the shady side...you know Florida and Al Gore, but...now I know for sure that Democrats are way, way shadier this year. Good lord!

The Republicans just schooled the Democrats on how to run a good clean Caucus. Lord help us!

Every election, not just this year. Obama bussed people in and gave them free iPods in the 2008 primary.

The DNC Rules & Bylaws committee took 600,000 Michigan votes from Hillary and simply gifted them to Obama, in 2008, even though his name did not appear on the ballot per his own doing.

Yeah. The DNC is f***ked.

I ran screaming from them in 2008 for this very reason. Going independent was the best gift I could give myself. I am free from all the partisan evil.

a reply to: macman

Are you serious? I've answered your question twice. Do you really think people stick to one ideology, especially given their options during a presidential race? So tell me, what answer are you looking for because clearly I don't one for you.

Lets see if you can answer my only question to you, were you a Ron Paul supporter?

a reply to: Swills

Do people stick with ideology??? Those with morals do.

I am a Libertarian. Yes, I supported Ron Paul.

I, being a Libertarian, will not vote for the idiot Bernie. He, his policies and ideology are in direct opposite of what a Libertarian believes in.

If you are a Libertarian, and back/vote for Bern-out, you never were a Libertarian.

a reply to: macman

What do morals and ideology have to do with one another? People change their ideologies, it's called life. Those who once Democrats become Republicans and vice versa. Are you saying they have no morals?

It's clear you really don't like Sanders and you aren't looking for answers, you're just looking for anyway to let us all know how much you despise him.

I guess your man in this race is Rand Paul, who I like but clearly this cycle isn't for him. Hopefully the future is kinder to him.

originally posted by: macman
a reply to: Swills

Do people stick with ideology??? Those with morals do.

mor·al
ˈmôrəl/
noun
plural noun: morals

1.
a lesson, especially one concerning what is right or prudent, that can be derived from a story, a piece of information, or an experience.

People love to use words they don't understand. Morals change given time and experience, all people have them, regardless of their ideology.

a reply to: IAMTAT


Good grief. Even Anton Chigurgh can't put this woman out of our lives.

originally posted by: dashen
The Fate of a Nation decided by a COIN TOSS.
you cant make this stuff up.
or can you?
is this real life?

Oh it's real......in Iowa.

originally posted by: amazing
I used to think the Republican side of American politics was the shady side...you know Florida and Al Gore, but...now I know for sure that Democrats are way, way shadier this year. Good lord!

The Republicans just schooled the Democrats on how to run a good clean Caucus. Lord help us!

Good clean caucus? Republicans? With Cruz taking votes from Carson by falsely claiming Carson suspended his campaign? Give me a break. One party is dirty as the other. Politics as usual.

originally posted by: IAMTAT
LOL...So Hillary won 6 out of 6 coin toss ties (calling heads)...and that allowed her to beat Sanders in Iowa last night.
What are the odds? According to the math, a highly improbable 1 in 64!
Wow...Hillary is one lucky lady.
Of course, her integrity and that of her campaign is above reproach.

DES MOINES, Iowa — One of the most bizarre details to emerge from Monday’s Iowa caucuses was that in six Democratic counties, the ownership of six delegates was decided by a coin flip.

A single delegate remained unassigned at the end of caucusing in two precincts in Des Moines, one precinct in Ames, one in Newton, one in West Branch and one in Davenport, The Des Moines Register reported.

In all six instances, the coin toss was won by former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton over Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders.

There may have been more coin tosses, but those are the ones we know about for now.

Now, get ready to do some math.

In a single coin toss, the probability of calling the toss correctly is 50 percent, or one in two. Heads or tails.

But the probably of winning every flip out of six flips is one in 64, or 1.56 percent.

The online study tool “Coin Toss Probability Calculator” has a really intense formula that explains why, but the bottom line is, the probabilities stack on each other.

You’re 50 percent likely to win one coin flip. But you’re only 25 percent likely to win two consecutive coin flips, because there are now twice as many possible outcomes. So bump that up to six coin flips, and your chances of winning them all are slim:

And the bottom line is, Clinton won the Iowa caucuses on a coin flip.

Here’s why: Each coin flip decided a delegate.

Clinton’s final delegate count was 699.57, according to the Iowa Democratic Party. Sanders’ was 695.49.

If Sanders had won half of the coin tosses and split the six delegates three and three with Clinton, he would have finished at 698.49 delegates to Clinton’s 696.57.

www.theblaze.com...

I totally don't trust this outcome... They say that if Bernie had just received 3 out of 6 coin tosses his "delegate equivalents" would have beat Hillary's...

originally posted by: amazing
I used to think the Republican side of American politics was the shady side...you know Florida and Al Gore, but...now I know for sure that Democrats are way, way shadier this year. Good lord!

The Republicans just schooled the Democrats on how to run a good clean Caucus. Lord help us!

Eh, yes I think the Democrat elite are shady. But the Republicans? At least the Democrat elite have the sense to lie about serving the American people and caring about the poor and world. The Republicans just tell the real policies straight out with no shame, lol!

originally posted by: Quetzalcoatl14

originally posted by: amazing
I used to think the Republican side of American politics was the shady side...you know Florida and Al Gore, but...now I know for sure that Democrats are way, way shadier this year. Good lord!

The Republicans just schooled the Democrats on how to run a good clean Caucus. Lord help us!

Eh, yes I think the Democrat elite are shady. But the Republicans? At least the Democrat elite have the sense to lie about serving the American people and caring about the poor and world. The Republicans just tell the real policies straight out with no shame, lol!

And lying about being a POS is somehow better than being upfront about being a POS?

Jesus.

originally posted by: AugustusMasonicus
Just wondering if all the Sanders supporters are feeling Bernt today.

C'mere, let this Ron Paul supporter give you a hug. I know your anguish.

I graciously accept your commiseration. Never felt Ron Paul ever got a fair chance in his media portrayal.

As to the topic of the coin tosses themselves... I have two feelings/thoughts.

1) 1 in 64 are impressive odds to overcome. But they certainly aren't astronomical. And the delegates affected by these coin tosses were not statewide delegates. They were individual county delegates, out of several. The likelihood that that translated into any impact on statewide delegate equivalencies seems very low. That said...

2) If the county delegates in question did just coincidentally happen to be what cinched a given precinct or distict's (the semantics make my head spin, feel free to correct me - our frankenstein patchwork non-uniform political process becomes downright esoteric in this country at times) delegate(s,) and that translated to her current extremely narrow delegate lead statewide... then I would be more suspicious.

Because that's just really, really, really good luck for her, in a state she had to win (or at least "not lose" in) because NH looks like a surer bet for Sanders, and historically and in terms of PR the narrative being enforced and reinforced time and time again is that "a candidate has to win Iowa, NH, or both" to get nominated.

But unless #2 proves true (and I have yet to see anyone clarify whether it is... no one seems to know... which is in itself somewhat odd, as you'd think this would be something they would be trying to clarify in order to preempt such conspiracy theories) I will be skeptical of such claims of her stealing the caucus.

Not because I wish to defend Clinton (that's the last thing I wish to do,) but simply because I wish to to avoid leaping to conspiratorial conclusions without evidence or, indeed, even a full understanding of the dynamics of the events and how they affected the outcome.

But it is damned good luck. I'll give it that.

Peace.

originally posted by: MotherMayEye

originally posted by: Quetzalcoatl14

originally posted by: amazing
I used to think the Republican side of American politics was the shady side...you know Florida and Al Gore, but...now I know for sure that Democrats are way, way shadier this year. Good lord!

The Republicans just schooled the Democrats on how to run a good clean Caucus. Lord help us!

Eh, yes I think the Democrat elite are shady. But the Republicans? At least the Democrat elite have the sense to lie about serving the American people and caring about the poor and world. The Republicans just tell the real policies straight out with no shame, lol!

And lying about being a POS is somehow better than being upfront about being a POS?

Jesus.

I was obviously joking. However, I do think the Democrats are the "lesser of two evils." They support the evils of empire such as domestic spying or endless wars, but their policies on average on the domestic front are better for the common person than the Republicans. The Republicans are for the same evils but also propose policies on the social fronts that are only good for the rich, and environmental policies that are not good for anybody..

The puppet masters that Hillary and the Bushes( who are higher up in the pecking order) and Obama( who is owned completely and is like a pet) are part of that cult that serve Mammon, the God of Money. So maybe its a message to us that Hillary owes everything to money. Maybe the higher powers are giving us a warning about Hillary.

originally posted by: Sublimecraft
a reply to: IAMTAT

Well, there's "lies, damn lies and statistics" so the 1-64 million dollar question is: were the tosses legitimate or rigged?

I'll go with rigged because she dynastic establishment and he's going after the billionaires and banksters.

Theirs no way, the vested interests would let any loose cannon into a power position, just remember its not your country anymore, so mind your manners.