Iowa Caucus Discussion.

originally posted by: introvert

originally posted by: Kali74
I'm sorry Hillary supporters but I absolutely hate her. She is lying through her @#$%^&* teeth right now.

They had Hillary's speech on the large screens tonight and the Bernie crowd began cheering "she's a liar"....over and over.

Good mix of people as well. Lot's of families, some kids and surprisingly a lot of older folks.

Of course there is a huge mix of supporters for Sanders. Every struggling American likes hand-outs and freebies. Sanders makes Obama look like Ebenezer Scrooge by comparison.

3 coin tosses all going for Clinton. A possibly fraudulent recount in Des Moines. 90 delegates missing. Sanders campaign says their internal numbers show them up 2. It's all too much for me.

Is this a "Winner Take All" caucus? If not, does it matter much if a candidate gets a few more/less votes than their nearest rival? They pretty much split the delegates 50/50. Right?

originally posted by: carewemust
Is this a "Winner Take All" caucus? If not, does it matter much if a candidate gets a few more/less votes than their nearest rival? They pretty much split the delegates 50/50. Right?

I think it'll be about how the media spins it. I razor's edge victory for either candidate could hurt the other's media momentum.

Now hearing that there has been 6 coin tosses, every one of them going to Hillary. (I don't know if this is true yet)
twitter.com...

Regarding those missing precincts, my mother said she's been following some storm chasers online out in Iowa tonight. If the power is out for them due to that weather, I suppose that would account for the lack of reporting?

originally posted by: Nyiah
Regarding those missing precincts, my mother said she's been following some storm chasers online out in Iowa tonight. If the power is out for them due to that weather, I suppose that would account for the lack of reporting?

Here is the Iowa National Weather Service Radar: radar.weather.gov...

As you can see...nothing eventful. Just some light snow, which is normal for us here in the Midwest.

a reply to: carewemust

Thanks, no different than what we get here in MI. Makes me wonder WTH she's watching them for? Anyway, it was just a thought to consider, even if it didn't pan out.

Now THIS is interesting. Put on your tinfoil hats, folks, and tell me if you think the result of this caucus was predetermined?

It doesn't seem like it should be possible, but those coin flips, and that "missing" data... Makes you wonder.

So is anyone really surprised by these results?

Isn't this pretty much what was predicted/expected?

originally posted by: Annee
So is anyone really surprised by these results?

Isn't this pretty much what was predicted/expected?

Cruz beating Trump by a good margin Trump almost being passed by Rubio was a bit of surprise. As the more mainstream candidates start to drop their supporters will likely stick with the more mainstream candidate Rubio. Could be this leads him to taking the whole thing in the end. So him doing so well was a surprise.

originally posted by: Nyiah
a reply to: carewemust

Thanks, no different than what we get here in MI. Makes me wonder WTH she's watching them for? Anyway, it was just a thought to consider, even if it didn't pan out.

Your Mom is WISELY monitoring the Storm Chasers because most of Iowa is under a BLIZZARD warning for today. It's a good thing it didn't hit Monday, or the turnout would have been far lower.

originally posted by: Eilasvaleleyn
Now THIS is interesting. Put on your tinfoil hats, folks, and tell me if you think the result of this caucus was predetermined?

It doesn't seem like it should be possible, but those coin flips, and that "missing" data... Makes you wonder.

They pre-write a lot of things, including obituaries. I suspect they had frames written for anyone who won.

originally posted by: MrSpad

originally posted by: Annee
So is anyone really surprised by these results?

Isn't this pretty much what was predicted/expected?

Cruz beating Trump by a good margin Trump almost being passed by Rubio was a bit of surprise. As the more mainstream candidates start to drop their supporters will likely stick with the more mainstream candidate Rubio. Could be this leads him to taking the whole thing in the end. So him doing so well was a surprise.

I never thought "real" voters took Trump seriously.

I expected him to fall when the voting started.

a reply to: Byrd

Point. Interesting that it's the pre-written frame that just happened to be the actual result, though it's not like it was a totally unexpected one.

I was mostly joking, by the way. There is some weirdness, but the WSJ piecei sn't really one of them.

originally posted by: Annee

originally posted by: MrSpad

originally posted by: Annee
So is anyone really surprised by these results?

Isn't this pretty much what was predicted/expected?

Cruz beating Trump by a good margin Trump almost being passed by Rubio was a bit of surprise. As the more mainstream candidates start to drop their supporters will likely stick with the more mainstream candidate Rubio. Could be this leads him to taking the whole thing in the end. So him doing so well was a surprise.

I never thought "real" voters took Trump seriously.

I expected him to fall when the voting started.

As things rolled into normal states I thought so as well but, Iowa is the type of place he should have been able to win.

The bandwagon voters will ditch Trump here soon.

Politics is a lot like sports, people love to feel like they've won. Scientifically, people's brains light up just as if they themselves have won when watching sports.

This is why a lot of people will gravitate to teams with a consistent winning streak.

Me? I don't care. I'm a Washington Nationals fan. Probably one of the worst teams ever.

As a Democrat, Marco Rubio and John Kasich are the Republicans that scare me the most.

Both of these guys are playing that George W Bush "compassionate Conservative" game and I'm afraid it might just work in a national election.

Marco Rubio is going into NH with loads of momentum, and John Kasich has already been sponsored by several NH news papers.

originally posted by: Annee
So is anyone really surprised by these results?

Isn't this pretty much what was predicted/expected?

It's going exactly as planned.... rigged to the hilt.

Random musings before bed.

It occurs to me that - hypothetically (skeptical, not to the point of exclusion, but skeptical nonetheless of a conspiracy here, but... ) - if there were a design to ensure Clinton snags the nomination...

Iowa really is a must. No candidate with one exception in 25 years has won a nomination without winning Iowa, New Hampshire, or both. Even though this makes no sense beyond the psychological perception of "capability to win," the media emphasis on this seems profound enough to make or break a nomination bid.

Despite being treated like the nominee presumptive since day one and leading Sanders by a considerable margin at one time, Sanders has slowly but surely eroded her lead enough that not only was he a threat in Iowa, he is projected to take New Hampshire. New Hampshire is likely out barring some sort of major failure by Sanders' campaign, or ace in the hole by the Clinton campaign. That means she must - in the somewhat imo irrational logic of the political narrative that seems to predispose victory in a race for nomination - win Iowa. Or at least "not lose."

So if something shady were going to go down... and I'm not asserting it has or is... it wouldn't seem unreasonable (unless one considers the very premise unreasonable per se) to speculate that Iowa would be the battlefield where it would.

Despite the fact that socialism is a dirty word, his opponent has been assumed the inevitable victor, his campaign has relied disproportionately upon small individual donations, and despite Democrats knowing these stakes... she was still far from assured to do even as well as she did.

Now this being a conspiracy theory site... naturally many people will immediately lean toward that sort of a scenario. But...

Devil's advocate:

The delegates settled by coin toss were individual county delegates, not statewide. So unless it can be shown that those particular, specific county delegates alone were the deciding factor in a statewide delegate equivalency, there's no reason to suspect this was of any inordinate benefit to Clinton. Were they? I don't know. No one else seems to either. Would love to get qualified and knowledgeable clarification on that point from someone familiar with the specifics of both the process and the delegates involved. Likewise with the magnitude of any effect the ostensibly missing or uncounted precinct results might have had, or could conceivably have had.

Without that, any conspiracy theory one might feel an inclination toward would be little more than assumption based on a vague feeling that a coin toss feels like the wrong way to settle something in a supposedly democratic process. (Not that I don't share that feeling. Even if the delegates in question had a negligible or null impact... imagine being a caucuser in that county and learning the results of your vote were determined by coin toss. Not even a truly 50/50 chance, so there's not even that much 'fairness' intrinsic to the decision. I would be - imo rightly so - quite disenfranchised feeling right now. Even if I knew it didn't matter to the outcome.)

Anyway... this is about as politically intrigued as I get lol. This is not really my arena. I wish you all well irrespective of your "side" or candidate of choice, and hope everyone myself included gets some restful sleep.

Peace.

So still tied was up til 3 up by 515 made the train. I'm insane. Gonna be a long ass day. Lol