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Although most of the world's 19 populations have returned to healthy numbers, there are differences between them. Some are stable, some seem to be increasing, and some are decreasing due to various pressures.
originally posted by: Gemwolf
I'm just curious... Does anyone ever look outside their windows and think to themselves... Woah... Am I breathing thàt? Surely that can't be healthy for me, my pets or plants...?
Let's say that global warming is complete and utter BS... Should we just shrug and say "Hey, the earth isn't heating up, so all is good! No problem."?
Ask someone living in Beijing if they can remember what the sun looks like... But it's fine. Let's do nothing.
originally posted by: Krazysh0t
originally posted by: tanka418
originally posted by: Krazysh0t
This doesn't disprove Climate Change either. Correcting data? What's wrong with making sure the data is correct?
I don't know man...what would you think if I gave you "adjusted" data? What IF you didn't know how or why it was adjusted?
Any data that is changed is corrupt and unusable...with very few exceptions.
The fact that this NOAA data is "adjusted" invalidates it...
Do you even know what that means, or the reasons for the adjustment? Or are you just saying that JUST because the data needed adjusting that makes it obsolete? Because that is a very unscientific position you are adopting there.
originally posted by: tanka418
Do I know what WHAT means? Do I know what "adjustment" means? Yes...the data value has been changed...probably by some preset algorithm.
Lets see; the reasons for adjustment...from a data analysis view point, I can think of no reasons to adjust base data of that nature. In fact, for data like that "adjustment" is the same as corruption. It destroys the data's value, and makes it impossible to construct any kind of meaningful report.
Data is rarely "adjusted" and is typically adjusted only when the acquisition system has some sort of bias (bias affects all data equally), its usually a hardware thing. However, if we look into the hardware used to collect the temperature data we find that many instruments were used. And, even though all of the several instruments used have a range of error, or tolerance, the amount of error is different in each instrument. Thus, "adjustment" becomes the same as corrupting the data since no single value can be used...we can assume that each instrument has its own calibration.
Sorry man, but with data of this nature; only raw, untouched data values will work...and since NASA and NOAA have decided that we are better with their corrupt (adjusted) data...then we have no choice but to decide that all their reports are equally corrupt and meaningless.
My position is definitely NOT unscientific...but,, I won't hold it against you for not understanding the Science of Data.
I did not say anything about the data being obsolete...you imported that bit from a post else where in space and time.
Lets at least try to remain relevant...
Lets see; the reasons for adjustment...from a data analysis view point, I can think of no reasons to adjust base data of that nature.
originally posted by: Krazysh0t
Did you read the reason why the data was adjusted? Did you look at the old data then the adjusted data to see if the accuracy improved or wasn't improved? Or are you just writing it off because science was wrong in the past and attempts to self-correct itself?
Data is rarely adjusted? How do you know this? How many peer review papers have you read, peer reviewed, then followed up on to see if data adjustments were ever made?
originally posted by: Grimpachi
a reply to: tanka418
Lets see; the reasons for adjustment...from a data analysis view point, I can think of no reasons to adjust base data of that nature.
Placement- heat island effect- if it is close to equipment that puts off heat.
There are just a couple reasons, but if you are really interested each station that adjustments are made for various reasons have made those reasons publicly known.
originally posted by: tanka418
originally posted by: Krazysh0t
Did you read the reason why the data was adjusted? Did you look at the old data then the adjusted data to see if the accuracy improved or wasn't improved? Or are you just writing it off because science was wrong in the past and attempts to self-correct itself?
ETA: One does not "self-correct" by changing the data...One self-corrects by better understanding the data.
No...I didn't look at the old data, nor compare it to the corrupted values...in as much as this kind of data cannot be adjusted to reflect greater accuracy; there seemed to be little need. We are talking about temperature sensors here, and depending on how new they are...it boils down to the amount of current flowing through a solid state device...there is no "soft" adjustment that can make the "reading" more accurate.
How do I know this...did you miss the part where I related that I'm a computer scientist? How about the 20+ years experience with data acquisition, management and analysis?
How do I know this...how about the idea that I'm a data professional and unlike a meteorologist, geologist, geophysicist, I'm very likely to have a better understanding of Data, in general.
Peer reviewed papers...yes I've read a few, reviewed some, and written others...As I said; I'm a Computer/Data Scientist...how about you?
originally posted by: Krazysh0t
What if the data is collected poorly, or better methods of data collection are invented? No need to correct the data then either huh?
So to sum up you've rationalized away the reasons for quality peer review work because you are already convinced that AGW is fraudulent.
Doocy exaggerated the findings in this blog post when he applied it to global warming. The post itself only talks about U.S. land temperatures and what happens in the United States is separate from global shifts.
As far as what the blog actually claimed, while it accurately copied the changes in the government charts, experts in U.S. temperature measurement say it ignores why the charts shifted. There were major changes in how the country gathered temperature information over the decades.
Zeke Hausfather is a data scientist with Berkeley Earth, a research group that has expressed doubts about some of the reports on climate change coming from Washington and international bodies. Hausfather took Goddard to task when Goddard made a similar claim about numbers fudging earlier this month. The missing piece in Goddard’s analysis, Hausfather said, was he ignored that the network of weather stations that feed data to the government today is not the one that existed 80 years ago.
"He is simply averaging absolute temperatures," Hausfather wrote. "Absolute temperatures work fine if and only if the composition of the station network remains unchanged over time."
Weather stations that once were in a valley might now be on a hill top and vice versa. But the shift could be greater than simple elevation. Stations were moved from one part of a state to another. The number of stations within a given area shifted. All these differences, Hausfather and other experts said, will alter the typical temperatures gathered by government meteorologists.
Gavin Schmidt, director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, said the raw data used in the blog post suffered from an equally troubling flaw. The temperatures were not measured at the same time of day.
"Over time, the U.S. network went from recording max/min temperatures at different points of the day, to doing it at midnight," Schmidt said.
In fact, volunteers staffed many of the stations. Before 1940, most followed Weather Service guidelines and recorded the temperature at sundown. Through the second half of the century, there was a gradual shift to recording morning temperatures. This change produced the appearance of a cooling trend when none existed.
originally posted by: tanka418
originally posted by: Grimpachi
a reply to: tanka418
Lets see; the reasons for adjustment...from a data analysis view point, I can think of no reasons to adjust base data of that nature.
Placement- heat island effect- if it is close to equipment that puts off heat.
There are just a couple reasons, but if you are really interested each station that adjustments are made for various reasons have made those reasons publicly known.
I am presuming, for the moment, that both NASA and NOAA are a bit more intelligent than that...you know, not using inappropriate data in their analysis. They did state that the data consisted of a "subset" of all data, so we should be able to presume that they didn't include data known to be artificially offset from the ambient. Otherwise both NASA and NOAA are even bigger frauds in this than is currently suspected, or just plain stupid.
originally posted by: Krazysh0t
As of this source I'd day that you haven't actually looked at the data and are just believing what the media (in this case Fox News) is telling you.
originally posted by: tanka418
originally posted by: Krazysh0t
As of this source I'd day that you haven't actually looked at the data and are just believing what the media (in this case Fox News) is telling you.
Actually...some of the data I've reviewed has been; Northern Hemisphere historical mean temperature, Southern Hemisphere historical mean, and of course a combined report showing the historical mean on a global basis. There is, in reality, not quite enough data there to determine much, especially on a long cycle, and while the mean temperature is indeed increasing slowly, there is not enough data to determine if it is natural or artificial...the proper default view would be; natural.
Oh...the source of the data I viewed: NOAA...
So...how was that straw? Did that work for you?
originally posted by: Grimpachi
Have you ever considered that the areas around temp stations may change over time? Probably not.
You are correct NASA and NOAA are intelligent. They even explain to the less intelligent in detail why they make certain adjustments. That is well documented, but there will still be those who do not read the explanations and ignorantly claim they are frauds because they don't understand the reasons.
There even those who stick to that mantra even when they have been informed.
originally posted by: Krazysh0t
Well I just posted a link that explained why the data was altered (surprise! it aligned with what I was saying, better data acquisition became available). You ignored it of course.
So the trends we are seeing of increasing temperatures at an unprecedented rate for the time we've been keeping track is just benign? The trends of Antarctica and Greenland melting away aren't happening either? The fact that we've broken heat records or been in the top ten of heat records since the 90's means nothing?
I mean you know there is more than just one or two things that confirm AGW? There is a LOT of precise calculations, predictions, models, and tests performed that line up and further confirm this is happening.
originally posted by: CB328
So how does he explain the heat island effect? Cities are up to 10 degrees warmer than other areas, I suppose that's a natural cycle too??