Predictive Military Analysis Coming True in Europe: The Paris Attacks

Back in October of 2014 I wrote about The Military Weakness of Europe: A Serious Global Security Concern.

At the time it was met with skepticism, dismissal, and general indignation.

In that time we have seen Russia grow more beligerent toward EU nations, sending a large invasion force to the Middle East to aid Assad in Syria, and the Syria "refugee" crisis in the EU that has, in my opinion, led to what we witnessed yesterday in Paris, France. Let me lead off with what I said in the thread linked above:

This kind of military gutting, while palatable to some, leaves Europe vulnerable. I'm not just talking about threats from Russia and China either. The Middle East is a powder keg and the fuse is so obviously lit. If current trends continue in Europe, within a decade, the conflagrations in the Middle East will start to spread into European countries. It is high time for the nations of Europe to get their crap together. They cannot rely on US military power in the future. While our military is still strong, perhaps. But in reality we have budgetary concerns that will far outweigh the needs of Europe in the future and we can no longer reliably pick up the slack of failing European military policy.

Either fix your militaries, or you will be conquered.

Terrorist attacks are awful. I've seen one or two take place in Afghanistan while I was out there. They never target hard targets. They target innocent people, civilians, children, and low security facilities like theaters and sports complexes.

Terrorists, like many criminals in general, aren't looking for a fight. They are looking for victims. They wanna create havok, they want people scared, they want to expand conflict, and they will continue to do so as long as the momentum is on their side. Right now it is and will be until a few things happen:

1. The EU has been consistently underestimating Islamic threats for years now. There is zero political will to enter the fight, even as their citizens are largely sitting ducks to these people. They also have very obvious appeasement policies that I find unbelievable. For instance, letting hundreds of thousands of migrants into their member nations without so much as a background check. They care more about looking like compassionate progressives than they do about living in the realities of a brutal world beyond their borders.

2. War, to Europeans, seems to be something only the US does, and we are the bullies, not the extremist assholes who slaughter their people, but we- the ones who have the nuts to fight them. NATO countries are required to contribute 2% of their GDP toward their militaries in order to remain on a constant state of readiness. Most do not contribute at all. Their member armies are ill-equipped, poorly trained, and so underfunded that most of the EU armies cannot prosecute a war on their own soil for the requisite 30 days. Military expenditure takes a back seat to progressive socialism and, at this point, international welfare that the US generally provides most of the military deterrent for Europe. It is this military support that allows them to spend on social programs and international welfare while we foot the bill for their defense...All while being criticized by their citizens for doing so.

Both of those things need to change. In order to change it public support for requisite military build up and strength in the EU needs to be fostered.
There will come a time when Europe is going to have to pull their heads out of their collective asses. I don't know how many more Paris attacks need to take place to make it happen, but as it stands Europe is on the brink of a major war they are in no way prepared to fight.

You've been warned... Twice now.

There will come a time when Europe is going to have to pull their heads out of their collective asses. I don't know how many more Paris attacks need to take place to make it happen, but as it stands Europe is on the brink of a major war they are in no way prepared to fight.

You've been warned... Twice now.

So, soldiers on every corner with automatic rifles and bayonets fixed. Checkpoints, round ups, guards searching everyone at every venue TSA style .

No thanks.

EU does not have to worry about a ground invasion from another country.
If another country did invade their nation, that nation WOULD be turned into a parking lot.
The real threat is urban warfare terrorist.. I say let the french and EU protect themselves
it's 'none of our business' if they do get attacked right?

a reply to: intrptr

This is not what I'm talking about.

Stop being ridiculous and live in reality. Europe is under attack and will continue to be under attack until it either responds, or it falls.

It seems that our response to terrorism is to offer prayers, to change our facebook profile pictures to an overlaid French flag, to post about it on forums and blogs, to tweet and retweet 140 characters of feel good nonsense.

When it comes time to actually do something about this kind of crap, everyone gets indignant and spineless about having to do nasty things to bad people.

a reply to: projectvxn


I do not agree that these attacks are a consequence of inaction, and I am not sure that I agree that Europe could have done anything to avoid these attacks.

Or rather, I am not sure anyone can do anything anywhere to avoid such attacks.


The only method of prevention I can think of is to avoid becmming a target - and actually almost to do the opposite of what you suggest: To disregard anything military-related and to rely on burying one's head in the sand and to mind one's own business.

And I do not think we - or anyone - should do that.

I enjoyed your read, and plan to dissect it more, but I have to ask (and I'm not trying to phrase this is as a loaded question), who exactly are you blaming when you say Europeans? I'm just looking for clarification.

I could see the government taking some heat for their actions (or inactions) that could have assisted in the leading of these attacks, but to play Devils advocate, one should also then look to see who carried the attacks out themselves, and the factors that have led to the attackers having the opportunity - in means of weapons, training, numbers, equipment, to seize the attack.

However, attempting to find the truth is a propaganda minefield, and ultimately boils down to an opinion, but isn't my point.

I certainly hope you're not saying it is the innocent people of Europe who have created this by their actions, or inactions. Let's be completely realistic here - how much do, we the people, have in governmental policies? Yeah, I'll be sure to email my representative and receive an automated response back. Our constituent basis is a joke, and it's been proven we have literally no impact on any sort of policy. We just don't.

What makes some think Europeans have it any different, and why would they be blamed for the behaviors of their government, and the actions of a terrorist group (let us remember, at one point were "moderate rebel")?

What's striking to me, is how your thread is nearly entirely accurate in your "prediction," although this was not to be a surprise - it's called blowback, remember Benghazi? Certainly wasn't a YouTube video. But man, you know what's truly insane?

From when you wrote your previous thread, and to now - absolutely NOTHING has been done to IS, well perhaps I may have exaggerated, they have seemed to only grow and become more prominent.

Now that, in my opinion, speaks magnitudes.

How many countries were invaded because of WMD's that were never found - that we were later told, intelligence agencies knew they weren't there, but we still went in anyway - and how long did that take?

Why not the same measures against IS?

Why have our efforts still been towards Assad - "human rights violations," they say - while being closely allied with Saudi Arabia.

Cui Bono? The questions that aren't seeming to be asked.

EDIT: And as for the, "what should we do," solemn - it's simple. The United States military clearly has had no problems with invading and occupying foreign lands, the government has had no quarrel placing sanctions on nations that lead to children starving - we clearly do not abide by any sort of moral code.

So why not do what we always do - literally, the only accomplish-able feat of the United States - go and start a war with them. We don't even need propaganda to get the citizenry on board, I think it's a generally comcieved notion that IS is a blight and one that needs to be removed.

Why we haven't done that? Now we're talking meat.

Wrong! On so many levels, just wrong.
PROPHET!

originally posted by: intrptr

There will come a time when Europe is going to have to pull their heads out of their collective asses. I don't know how many more Paris attacks need to take place to make it happen, but as it stands Europe is on the brink of a major war they are in no way prepared to fight.

You've been warned... Twice now.

So, soldiers on every corner with automatic rifles and bayonets fixed. Checkpoints, round ups, guards searching everyone at every venue TSA style .

No thanks.

Your legs must be tired of that enormous leap you just made.

One of the most over the top hyperbolic comments I've seen in a while.

The Military wouldn't have saved one person last night as, regardless of military budgets or planning, they do not patrol the streets, ever.

What the events in Paris has hi-lighted, is the lack of intelligence of the security services.

Still they have found a Syrian passport next to one of the attackers, so Syria here we come.

a reply to: RomeByFire

Europe prides itself on democracy. Like in the US, we have only ourselves to blame for the issues we now face. Especially those borne of government incompetence and corruption.

Please don't twist this to mean I blame victims of terrorism for terrorists. Islam has been on a war path in Europe far longer than we care to acknowledge and therein lies the issue. We bury our heads in the sand citing "cultural differences" and using words like "Islamophobia", when, in fact, the is majority support in the Islamic world for terrorism.

Couple that with intentionally ignoring military readiness, the EUs open door policy, and general disinterest in the security of their own people, and you wind up with the kind of issues the EU is facing today.

originally posted by: Jonjonj
Wrong! On so many levels, just wrong.
PROPHET!

Argue that with NATO Secretary Generals going back to 2011.

Argue that with the results of what we have seen since I wrote the original thread.

a reply to: Cobaltic1978

Military readiness isn't just about a bunch of soldiers blowing stuff up.

But about being a deterring factor.

a reply to: Cobaltic1978

The French military is actually used in Paris and other cities pretty often. In fact, the Gendarmes are part of the military.

a reply to: projectvxn

What else can an ordinary person do when it's completely blind to the suffering of the people living in the ME where these kinds of attack happen on a regular basis and usually on a much bigger scale?

What else can an ordinary person do when sees that the west has been arming and assisting terrorists in the ME? What can you do?

But I agree with you on something, this was to be expected and SHOULD have been predicted and prevented by the western and especially the french intelligence service. What the hell have those guys been doing all this time with all those super high tech? Not their job obviously.

originally posted by: projectvxn
a reply to: Cobaltic1978

Military readiness isn't just about a bunch of soldiers blowing stuff up.

But about being a deterring factor.

Yeah, I know. However, it still wouldn't have made one bit of difference.

This was a small unit ready to die for whatever their cause is and it was carried out imo, rather amateurish. My guess would be this has been planned for a while, but not perfected. Maybe a plan brought forward as a response to the killing of Jihadi John or to apportion blame on his death anyway.

a reply to: Nikola014

Europe did this to themselves for allowing Syrian fighters to enter the EU as "refugees". It is a predictable consequence of misguided policy toward the Middle East.

a reply to: projectvxn

Europe is under attack and will continue to be under attack until it either responds, or it falls.

The Middle East is under attack. Has been for decades.

European members of NATO have been "misled" to go along with this US led coalition , their failure is not waking up to the futility of conquest under a foreign flag (US/EU, i.e., NATO) disguised as a humane obligation.

a reply to: Cobaltic1978

Yeah, I know. However, it still wouldn't have made one bit of difference.

Yes it would have. If the EU took its military intelligence, readiness, and funding seriously that is.

This was a small unit ready to die for whatever their cause is and it was carried out imo, rather amateurish.

Your opinion on this is ridiculous. Amateurish? What exactly did you think their goals were? Terrorists try to inflict as much death and mayhem as possible. Killing 130 people and injuring more than 300 is NOT amateurish. It's exactly what was intended.

originally posted by: projectvxn

Please don't twist this to mean I blame victims of terrorism for terrorists. Islam has been on a war path in Europe far longer than we care to acknowledge and therein lies the issue.

I'm beginning to wonder if this is more of an attack against those who've escaped to France and have run from the fight. A message that they're not safe.

I'm not sure which is worse.

I was reading a remark by the historian Robert Fisk regarding the deciding confrontation between the nationalist and the mandate government in the 1920 Franco-Syrian War. He said that the Battle of Maysalun was " a struggle which every Syrian learns at school but about which almost every Westerner is ignorant."

Food for thought. Hopefully there's still time for us to savour it and learn.