Russia Examines 1991 Recognition of Baltic Independence

originally posted by: xpert11

originally posted by: seagull
The US would have no choice. Were, god forbid, Putin do something like order the invasion of the Baltic states, Obama would not dare do nothing. He'd be done.

Russian agitators are or will be at work in places like Estonia before Obama leaves the White House. All Obama is doing is passing the problem of a expansionist Russia to the next president. My feeling is that Hillary knows full well what track Europe is on in the next ten years. My prediction is that President Hillary retires as a "statesman" in 2020 leaving her successor to one hell of a mess.

Everybody that loves Hillary hates this video .

15 seconds long if you haven't seen it you will be surprised .

a reply to: Greathouse

special forces for sure, full troop regiments no way. Force projection though, would take 3 days tops to have 10-20k there just from the US alone

a reply to: Greathouse

How would Poland and or NATO defend the Baltic states if Russia uses soft power to take them over? Poland is rightfully worried because in the event Russia invades western Europe they are little more then a road block.

originally posted by: Vector99
a reply to: Greathouse

special forces for sure, full troop regiments no way. Force projection though, would take 3 days tops to have 10-20k there just from the US alone

If I remember right a Marine expeditionary unit was sent immediately and five days later the 82nd airport was dispatched. The thing everyone should be looking for is activation of the civil air reserve fleet .

a reply to: xpert11

Personally I think soft power is out of the question. The tactic worked in Ukraine we won't let it happen twice. Any small unit action like to Ukraine would escalate very quickly in the Baltics. I think if something happens in the Baltics it would be a full invasion that and less we had the troops in place we could and hope to stop. The time-tested enemy a blitzkrieg like warfare is if someone gets in your rear .


Look back and search where the exercises are occurring since 2014. Most of them are in Poland and I seriously doubt the equipment or men are leaving . There dribbling troops and equipment in 500 here a 1000 there .


That would be how I would do it if I didn't want a build up noticed .

a reply to: xpert11

They are currently using soft power to invade Eastern Ukraine. The Russian economy has surely suffered a lot from it, and the eastern rebels are growing quite sick of it. Poland is also a lot more than a "roadblock" to Russia anymore btw. Russia wouldn't dare tempt invading Poland.

originally posted by: Greathouse
a reply to: xpert11

Personally I think soft power is out of the question. The tactic worked in Ukraine we won't let it happen twice.

A very interesting thought. In your mind what stops the Russians from arranging referendums in the Baltic states?
Low voter turnout would ensure the Pro Russian factions would win the vote.

a reply to: xpert11

little green men will need to be there for that to work. They were already there in Crimea so not so much a problem.

a reply to: xpert11

Actually I was more to the point of saying. If the little green men start showing up they shortly become little green and red man .

Yea Poland would give Russia everything it could handle and then some...

Russia could overwhelm them if it was 1 on 1 eventually... But nato would be there before that point.

a reply to: xpert11

I personally am from Estonia. I can ensure, even the local Russians, would not vote for becoming part of Russia. Considering the general corruption and economic situation&poverty in Russia, life quality, general safety in this area is much higher, as well there is opportunity to travel across Europe for work (like Finland) where salaries are much higher.

During the Crimean situation, most of the local Russians were pro-Ukraine. There was some pro-Russian (in Crimean situation) protest arranged by some group, it only got like 10 people involved and even they were highly mocked by others, just embarrassed themselves in front of the nation.

It would also be much harder to infest this area with agitators due to the need of visa when coming over borders. In Ukraine such thing was much easier, as no visa is required for Russian citizens.


Generally Baltic nations are very patriotic and even if such referendum happened low voter-turnout would not be a possibility. Over 2/3rd of the nations are Estonians after all. Among the Russian population vast majority are Pro-Estonian as well. Russia is still the land their ancestors lived at, but still, who remembers does not want the Soviet times back. If they wanted they could easily relocate to Russia, they dont. Among the youth, majority are pro-EU. USSR times are not forgotten. Also the cultures are very different from Russia. Estonian culture and language, for example, are very Finnish-like. The culture is generally similar to Nordic nations and not very slavic at all.

Historically, Russia does not go around attacking nations. Both Georgia and Ukraine have been responses to Western designs in the area. Russia is merely defending its interests.

Russia's main challenges are economic. By 2020, oil is the main mode of running vehicles might see low demand due to alternative sources like electric and even solar power. Diversification of the economy is Russia's main challenge. Solar power might even eat into the demand of gas for household heating.

Like mentioned before, Russia should not attack Baltics and test NATO. If the alliance does not come to defense of Baltics, then NATO as an entity would hold little meaning.

Other republics, free and fair elections need to take place "if and only if" they and their leaders want to make some sort of Union with Russia. Sending little green men and causing civil wars would be outright stupid and cruel on people. Many of these republics have expressed desires to re-join Russia but Moscow has shyed away due to these nations being basket cases in economics, political stability and becoming a drain on Kremlin's resources. Customs Union is a good idea as it promotes trade and makes these nations grow by self efforts...........something that is many time more long lasting and beneficial.

a reply to: Cabin

The culture is generally similar to Nordic nations and not very slavic at all.

Moving away from the "backward, much relaxed, corrupt, lawless" variables of the Slavic culture should be one of the main objectives of Kremlin.

However, Putin cannot throw $50B into Sochi games and try to buy "image upliftment" advertisement. Might as well throw $100m each into setting up specialist research institutes in various fields to retain the top class of Russian brain and stop them from fleeing overseas.........even to Baltics or Finland.

Russia should live with itself and not pretend to be what it is not. No more begging to stand in same photo shoot with the Western leaders like Gorby and Yeltsin used to.

a reply to: Kapriti

Aren't YOU glad those people are msitaken then?

a reply to: Greathouse

It was a FUN job too.
I don't get WHY Russia is acting like that instead of DEVELOPING its colder territories?
THEY probably have a GREAT deal of mineral wealth over there if they would LOOK for it.

a reply to: cavtrooper7

They're developing the Arctic too. They started that last year .

"On Wrangel Island and Cape Schmidt, block-modules have been unloaded for the construction of military camps. The complex is being erected in the form of a star," Colonel Alexander Gordeyev, a spokesperson for the Eastern Military District, was quoted as saying by RIA Novosti.

source

a reply to: seagull

You presuppose that the nations involved will honour their treaty. Nothing happens automatically with a treaty. Commands do not suddenly erupt and go down the line. The politicians look at events as they transpire, and then they behave as politicians do.

If Russia, were to go in and snatch Narva from Estonia, I cannot imagine the Germans agreeing to NATO going to war. They would veto any such action right out of the gate. And I do not trust the US government when it comes to fulfilling treaty obligations. Just ask the Native American tribes and nations about that.

originally posted by: stumason

originally posted by: Kapriti
The problem with NATO is that very few expect the USA, the UK, France, etc. will be there for them should the Russians try to seize territory or invade.

Really? I don't think anyone thinks that - if anything, it is the Uk and the US leading the new RRF. Not to mention, the UK has sacrificed itself twice before honouring defence agreements with much smaller, weaker European countries - so much so, we bankrupted ourselves and lost an Empire.

Sounds like what America is doing with our longest wars I history that we intentionally don't win or finish. Boy do I miss the days of isolationism, you know where the citizen funded government focuses on citizens rather than corporations and other countries.

originally posted by: Kapriti
a reply to: seagull

You presuppose that the nations involved will honour their treaty. Nothing happens automatically with a treaty. Commands do not suddenly erupt and go down the line. The politicians look at events as they transpire, and then they behave as politicians do.

Yes, I do presuppose that. When has the United States not answered its Treaty obligations? Even stretched them to the breaking point?

In the case of a Russian move into the Baltic states? What choice would the US have? Do nothing? Oh, yeah, that'll do our relations with Italy, Greece, Turkey, France, even England a world of good. The most powerful member, by many orders of magnitude, not answering the call? Not going to happen. Ever. Any politician who thinks so is on a path of career suicide.

If Russia, were to go in and snatch Narva from Estonia, I cannot imagine the Germans agreeing to NATO going to war. They would veto any such action right out of the gate.

What makes you say that? Admittedly, I'm not as familiar with that particular aspect of this situation. The Germans stand to lose as much as anyone should the Tsars make a return appearance, and continue the track they're seemingly on.

And I do not trust the US government when it comes to fulfilling treaty obligations. Just ask the Native American tribes and nations about that.

What have events well over a century ago, horrific as they were, to do with this. The differences should be obvious. Those treaties were worthless, as the US govt. never intended to honor them. The racial aspect, too, is different. Those treaties were made with, nastily enough, lesser humans, in the opinion of the day. Days change. Since WWII, and the formation of various Treaty groups hasn't failed to honor obligations. Not always with the best of results, but we've shown up.

War in Europe, with treaty partners involved, the response would be immediate, and rather harsh. Russia knows this. ...and the world should know by now, just what the US military is capable of. I surely don't want to see it. I've got friends in Europe. I've got friends and family in the US military. I've no desire to see a European war, at all, muchless with family and friends involved.

a reply to: Greathouse

THAT'S just Tit for tat stuff,trying to rag us off by claiming part of Alaska as THEIR original sale was illegal ...a familiar game.