PREVIEW: In The Crosshairs: How I Became the Target of an NSA Power Struggle, by Greg Hansen

a reply to: Serdgiam

When I started with NTOC I ran a simulation predicting the staffing level required vs. the staffing level predicted. My simulation suggested that at the staffing level predicted most people on the floor would be busy about 25% of the time. I was laughed at. I was more or less right, however. Upper echelon just thought there would be so much work we wouldn't be able to keep up despite there being no evidence for that assumption.

Go to this link to read my simple example. It is based on a real example in which I helped a client (when I had my own business) pass on implementing costly technology because it would not provide the benefits promised by the vendor. Simple Test in LinkedIn

P vs NP is way above my pay scale!

a reply to: OpinionatedB

"To be honest yet today I think that the belief "Sadaam had WMD's" has not changed within our government.. it has however, changed the location of his WMD's to Syria with our government acting under the belief that he got them out of Iraq and into Syria."

I have to be honest with you - that is very profound! I never thought of that. Nonetheless the inspectors indicated that there were no WMD in Iraq when we invaded.

a reply to: greghansen

Simulation is a "cold, prickly" approach to process analysis, not a "warm, fuzzy" approach.

What about socio-informatics. computational sociolgy, and the agent-based modeling stuff taught at the Krasnow?

I kinda though that might bring the "warm and fuzzy".

I'm dying to hear you talk about this stuff and I have to admit that I am more interested in your simulation and process stuff than your most recent e-book. For me this has been sort of like discovering a unicorn: a guy that does process-analysis and process simulation for validation purposes.

Have you played Dwarf Fortress?

Dwarf Fortress

Have a good Saturday.



P.S. Wouldn't the answer be "about 3%"? Totally insignificant.

a reply to: Serdgiam

I forgot the most important one - the belief that we would be in Iraq for "weeks, not months." A colleague of mine developed a simulation suggesting that the war would last at least ten years. You can imagine how ridiculed she was.

originally posted by: greghansen
a reply to: OpinionatedB

"To be honest yet today I think that the belief "Sadaam had WMD's" has not changed within our government.. it has however, changed the location of his WMD's to Syria with our government acting under the belief that he got them out of Iraq and into Syria."

I have to be honest with you - that is very profound! I never thought of that. Nonetheless the inspectors indicated that there were no WMD in Iraq when we invaded.

I know what the inspectors said about Iraq after the invasion. It doesn't matter, because that never seemed to change the belief ... and we witnessed it through the actions our government took, or continued to take, after the fact.

Something is causal to a "by any means" policy since Iraq and that cause has been chased since that time - through presidents and parties, and through countries. So, it is either the one I suggested or a similar scenario, taking into consideration what we don't know with what we do know, or they really are just a bunch of retards - because I have easily been able to predict outcomes, none of which were good, since this began. Yet still they plod on... by any means possible.

When cost means nothing to someone, the pay-off is usually quite high.

Nice talking with you... I apologize if I was too hard on you earlier..

a reply to: Bybyots

"a guy that does process-analysis and process simulation for validation purposes"

Well...I published a book on that subject as well (wink, wink, nudge, nudge). There are a lot of people/businesses in that arena but industry tends to ignore it. Go to my LnkedIn page to see more about that material.

a reply to: greghansen

Hey Greg,

I did totally visit your Linkedin. It's very impressive and awesome, and not only because of the dog. It helps to put things in to perspective for me as I am an older guy changing careers.

Your books will for sure be part of my introduction to simulation in QA. I just ran in to QA and validation 6 months ago; on the job of all places. It was a short lived experience but it was a fast and furious introduction to the young science (35-40 years old) of QA. I was on a slightly different educational trajectory at the time but now I am considering an undergrad program in QA, since you can actually find schools that have QA programs now. I will likely end up in batch-record and database stuff, but that's fine with me, I just want to be a part of it.

With all of the sensors aimed at the folks on production lines it's hard for me to imagine that simulation wouldn't be more than applicable. Somewhere, right?

Anyway, thanks for entertaining an excited newb.

Have a good weekend.