I'm Futurist Dr. Stan Schatt --Ask Me Anything!

originally posted by: StanSchatt
I’ve spent most of my time the past two decades as a futurist, a technologist and consultant paid to forecast future technology trends and products. In other words, look at a hell of a lot of information coming from all over the place, analyze what data made sense, and then try to figure out what conclusions I could draw.

Ok first question: It said Dr. before your name so can you tell us what your degree(s) are in, where you went to obtain them, etc?


Before my next question, I will give you my background: I am an astronomy and astrobiology undergrad at the University of Washington. I have as part of student programs attended lectures, luncheons or conferences and spoke with a few of the scientists you reference in your book. I've done two summer undergrad programs with the NASA Ames Research Center Astrobiology Academy and more recently the 2014 Sagan Exoplanet Summer Workshop hosted by the NASA Exoplanet Science Institute at Caltech.

I have learned from people from NASA's Kepler mission and others working on the proposal for EXO-S (Starshade Mission) to directly image exoplanets and worked along side them with other students as part of these programs.

My research interests include: Exoplanet formation,atmospheres and biomarkers. Modelling planet formation. Developing a way to detect "necro worlds" spectrographically planets which may have have had intelligent life at some time in the past but which are extant as a result of nuclear war, heat death, etc. I am working on a project to develop a spectral "fingerprint" for artificially produced heavy (radioactive) isotopes like Plutonium-238 which might be detectable with a future space telescope. In other words, with this, we might be able to detect planets which nuked themselves.

And more specific to this forum: My pet projects are the search for evidence of extraterrestrial nanotechnology on Earth and looking for evidence of wormholes by looking at light curves from Kepler and microlensing studies to rule out false positives.

So, I'm basically one of "those scientists" in training.

My second question is, what leads you to believe people are being "prepared" for first contact? Is this not a case of you believing correlation = causation?

Third question: Did you speak with Dr. Peter A. Sturrock? (emeritus professor of applied physics at Stanford University) - If not, why not? And if so, what did you talk about?

BTW: I am on this forum (and am in regular correspondence with Stanton T. Friedman) as a direct result of a chance meeting with Dr. Peter Sturrock and his recommendations for there being a dialog between the legitimate sciences and UFOlogy, as outlined in the what became known as the Sturrock Panel Report (which is actually called: Physical Evidence Related to UFO Reports: The Proceedings of a Workshop Held at the Pocantico Conference Center, Tarrytown, New York, September 29 - October 4,1997

a reply to: Bleeeeep
You're really thinking along a very high level philosophical/physiological path. I'm not much help here since my focus has always been more along the technology line. I've read some interesting studies that speculate that consciousness and awareness developed in part with the evolution of our "new brain" as described in part in the Ghost in the Machine. We're beginning to see more and more speculation about the concept of awareness in machines. The latest movie about Cappie the robot that has awareness, is one example. I think awareness is evolutionary and emergent rather than fundamental. Think of how a baby has to discover it is something a part of the world but a separate entity with its own identity and awareness.

Would you agree that the interconnectedness of social media will eventually shape the civilized world into a single entity whether governments want it that way or not due to the demands of the people who outnumber the power players?

a reply to: StanSchatt

You're also a literature professor; what are your favorite aspects of studying lliterature? Philosophy? Critical literary analysis?

Thanks,

a reply to: JadeStar
I'll try to answer all these questions as best I can, although I have answered a couple in separate replies. My degrees are in Chemistry, English, and business (MBA), but my academic education was only the first step. I taught myself enough programming to become a software trainer for mainframe assembly language programming. I worked at AT&T long enough to get a solid dose of training. Later I learned enough to publish college telecom textbooks and become Chairman of the Telecom Management Dept at DeVry. I spent two decades as a technology analyst, working my way up to VP, at several of the world's leading technology consulting firms including Forrester Research. Over the years I've published around 25 books on various areas of technology. So, that's my background. My job during the last 20 years was to forecast where various technologies would go.

2. I was paid for many years to look at huge piles of disparate data and see patterns. If I examine the way the mass media has portrayed aliens, I'm beginning to see more ET than Independence Day, even though it's much easier to make an exciting movie about hostile aliens. Also, the recent CIA "disclosure" that its secret ships were what people saw as UFOs strikes me as a way of trying to deflect UFO interest, perhaps because we're not primed enough yet for the truth. Finally, the Brookings report listed all the reasons why the government should be cautious in revealing aliens to the public.

3. No--I've never had the opportunity to talk with Sturrock. Life is short and there are lots of people worth talking to I haven't had the chance to talk with as of yet. That doesn't mean I don't want to or won't talk with them in the future.

4. I think the dialog idea is an excellent one. I think it might close the gap with some scientists who see anyone who even mentions a UFO as a tin foil hat wearing crazy.

a reply to: Bybyots
Well, I moved out of literature right after my Fulbright and spent 30 years in technology, but I'll try to answer your question. I was warned that if you love literature, don't teach it or it will kill your love. That's a real danger. I always believed in looking at a work of art and bringing in all the elements you mentioned --so that means reading critically, the author's bio and cultural framework, historical and cultural aspects, works that influenced this work and author, etc. I was never a Brooks and Warren fan of just looking at a work in isolation.

a reply to: StanSchatt

First, allow me to thank you for replying to my question!

And just to inform you further about this implant, it does require some user interface, and this is achieved through a wireless control device, with selector buttons which allow the user to select one of the pre-set programs, of which I think there are three or so. It also features an indicator which tells the user when the battery in the implant requires charging. Generally the user will be aware of the requirement to charge, just purely by being aware of the amount of time which has passed between one charge and another in the past, but the indicator is a handy feature none the less.

Before the implant was fitted, my friend was looking at a future of agony. The pain he was in, after a herniated disk in his spine, surgery to correct it, and a subsequent botched epidural, left him barely mobile, such was the pain. He also had tingling in his left leg, an artefact of the damage that had been done by these events.

I am pleased to report that he is now active and mobile, enjoys long boarding around town to get his exercise, and has not had to be on the gargantuan amount of pain medication that he was on before, the nett effect of which has been a vast improvement in his mental state, his positivity. The difference is nothing short of staggering.

a reply to: Asynchrony
That's kind of a frightening thought. I don't know if you read the NY Times Magazine story recently about a woman who made a couple of very bad politically incorrect tweets and wound up having social media force her boss to fire her. As long as social media is tightly controlled in Russia and China, we've got a way to go before we have the global closely tied social media has the kind of power you're talking about.

What disturbs me is that we already have "experts" who can manipulate social media. So, would we really have the people in control or a very few who hire the best social media manipulators?

originally posted by: StanSchatt
a reply to: data5091
I think our children and grandchildren will curse the memories of those climate change naysayers who prevented us from acting quickly enough.

Welcome. First of all I'd like to state that IMHO, most people do believe climate change does exist. Man made global warming not so much. Seeing as how the climate has changed dramatically throughout the course of earth's history, how soon do you think the climate will change leading to an uncomfortable existence or bring about cataclysmic conditions where mass planet or denizen death might occur? What are your speculations on actual scenarios and how do you think we could even possibly prevent the changes or prepare for them?

Also, since you stated water will be a valuable commodity, do you think fracking has a negative impact on our water sources and why/why not?

Thank you.

a reply to: StanSchatt

Hello Mr. Schatt,
During you years as a futurist, technologist, have you ever wondered why this or that technology is not used to improve the social aspects of the human species ? Don't you think we have arrived at a point where our technology is advanced enough that it makes our social systems look obsolete and generally retarded (I call our era "modern obscurantism", would you agree?) ? Do you ask yourself sometimes how is it possible that we are able to send a robot to a distant planet with all the correct predictions that the feat implies, and that at the same time on Earth we are stuck with social systems that seem to only produce war, unrest, pollution, and suffering in general (predictability vs unpredictability) ? It seems I am asking many questions, but I am really just asking one question : do you believe our technology has exceeded our humanity ? If yes, how do you explain it ? And in your opinion, how would an advanced alien species see us ?

And a little subsidiary question : do you know something called General Semantics ? Thank you very much.

a reply to: StoutBroux
I've read forecasts by people I respect who say that it might already be too late, but that certainly we need to start as soon as possible to reduce hydrocarbons and methane, etc. There are all kinds of scenarios. I wrote something once that described a world where people had to wear the equivalent of gas mask to go outside and where beggars begged for money for Oxygen. Couple current conditions with an eruption at Yellowstone, and there's the cataclysm you mentioned.

I'm against fracking based on what I've read. Apparently some "red" states are taking action against fracking now; that's encouraging. Water is just too precious a commodity to take chances of letting oil seep into it.

a reply to: StanSchatt

I don't know what to ask a futurist so I will ask this:

Do you think some of today's or 20th century UFOs have really been too incredible in their movement to be man made? Or do you think even the weirdest display of what such UFOs can do, is all military and such, it doesn't suggest that it is any alien technology whatsoever.

a reply to: gosseyn
You bring up an interest point I've never thought about. I guess I see technology as neither bad nor good but simply a tool. Our social institutions sometimes have not made good use of this tool. The problem is that the people who control technology often use it for personal gain rather than altruism. If we use technology to develop a cure for cancer but then a private company patents that particular gene therapy and charges so much that only the very rich can be cured, then that's an obvious case of a disconnect between social institutions and technology where human nature (greed) defeated the altruistic use of technology.

Maybe our technology has outpaced ourselves in the sense that we have the power now to destroy the planet even though we haven't evolved mentally and spiritually to the point where we wouldn't do that. That's the classic description of a civilization at the crossroads between self-destruction and evolution. I think an alien race would see us at that point in our development. As far as General Semantics, I know just a little about it. I believe it has to do with brain training.

a reply to: CollisioN
I've seen lots of comments from pilots and military types who say that such movement would be impossible for crafts we could build. I'm inclined to think that the small percentage of UFO sightings that cannot be explained suggest they just might have some validity. Of course, there are theories that they might represent visitors from parallel universes because our universe and theirs might touch at certain points. If that's the case, then it might explain why they can disappear so quickly and move in impossible ways.

Thank you for answering my questions. I have a follow up...

originally posted by: StanSchatt
a reply to: JadeStar
I was paid for many years to look at huge piles of disparate data and see patterns. If I examine the way the mass media has portrayed aliens, I'm beginning to see more ET than Independence Day, even though it's much easier to make an exciting movie about hostile aliens.

Don't you think that has more to do with an increasingly sophisticated and knowledgeable populace as a direct result of our learning more about the universe? It seems more of a byproduct of our our understanding and Hollywood's recognition of it than it being driven by some "agenda to prepare the populace".

After all, the more we've learned about our own Milky Way galaxy the less and less plausible the idea of "alien invasion" such as portrayed in TV and movies like V or Independence Day is.

We now know due to Kepler that 1 out of 5 stars like our Sun has a habitable exoplanet and that half of the lower mass stars which make up 80 percent of our galaxy also host a habitable exoplanet.

We also know that water is common in the universe and with things like 3D printing and lab grown meat then advanced aliens (which would most likely be on the order of millions if not billions of years older than us) aren't likely to come to Earth because our planet is rare, or for it's water (or any other resource) or have to traverse the vast distances to eat us for dinner.

Isn't this just Hollywood (due to the people they consult in the sciences) making more plausible scenarios since 1950s style alien invasion movies are kind of played out?

I mean they used to make movies about aliens from Mars or beautiful women from Venus but such movies changed with our knowledge of the conditions on those planets due to the exploration of our solar system.

a reply to: JadeStar
I suppose it is part of human nature to want to believe we are important enough to visit and watch over. I have an SF novel called Alien Love coming out later this year in which an alien female snorts at the idea of movies where the aliens come for Earth women. She replies that the only reason is that the movies are written by men.

I do see an awful lot of coverage of possible alien life, much more than in the past. I've read recently that even with water and all the elements necessary for life, it's not a sure thing. Everything has to go just right for life to develop. Once it does, all kinds of things can destroy it. Our evolution on this planet seems to be a series of catastrophes that wiped out the prevalent life form and allowed others to move up the ladder. Did you know that at one time there was a dinosaur around human sized that actually had an opposable appendage? Who knows what could have happened if the asteroid didn't hit.

a reply to: yuppa
I probably know less than you do about this. I'm aware of the successful testing of Orion. I wonder about what's going on now that it's gone black. It could be anything from a secret weapons program to an attempt to deal with the aliens on the Moon. I honestly don't know. There have been rumors for years about a treaty with aliens that wasn't renewed. I tend to sympathize with the alien race that promised us all kinds of spiritual benefits if we did away with nuclear weapons. Of course, we declined.

originally posted by: TrueBrit
a reply to: StanSchatt

Good day Dr Schatt.

I would like to ask you your opinion on the following.

A friend of mine has an implant in his spine, which was fitted by doctors to interfere with pain signals being sent from damaged nerves in his back. It does this by sending pulses of electrical signal across the nerves surrounding it, which either mask, or cancel the pain signals from the damaged area. The item charges by induction, which means that no external access port or power jack is necessary, just an induction pad under the skin, which receives power from a pad which is laid over the outside of the skin, which in turn is connected to a specialist adaptor.

The implant can be programmed to a series of pre-set levels, which are arrived at after careful experimentation on the part of the doctors who fitted it, to establish good levels which relieve or eliminate the pain in the subjects back.

My question to you is as follows:

Does this qualify as an example of transhumanism?

I await your response with interest.

lol just picturing where he would plug in if he had to charge the old fashion way.

a reply to: AutumnWitch657

I should mention that I had a relative who worked as a very senior programmer for HP in their printer division. When he had a pacemaker put in he was struck by how the doctor checked on it. The doctor held a wireless device over his chest and checked out the pacemaker. My relative said he felt like one of the printers he worked on because that's exactly the process he used when checking on the operation of his printer software.

a reply to: StanSchatt

Yeah, if millions of people offered them coffee, the ones with the best coffee would probably make the best impression. I buy Hills Bros. coffee, I might have to get a packet of the good stuff and save it till they come over. After all, I would like to get a ride in their fancy ship.

I have a feeling that coffee will never get used.