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originally posted by: Reddaysun
Oh, I sure do get the drift. Did you once speak to the specific subject?
Don't you believe in flying saucers, they ask me?
Don't you believe in telepathy? — in ancient astronauts? — in the Bermuda triangle? — in life after death?
No, I reply. No, no, no, no, and again no.
One person recently, goaded into desperation by the litany of unrelieved negation, burst out "Don't you believe in anything?
" Yes", I said. "I believe in evidence. I believe in observation, measurement, and reasoning, confirmed by independent observers. I'll believe anything, no matter how wild and ridiculous, if there is evidence for it. The wilder and more ridiculous something is, however, the firmer and more solid the evidence will have to be.” ― Isaac Asimov
originally posted by: mirageman
Say there are 1 million spacefaring civilizations in our galaxy existing at any one time amongst the 500 billion star systems. Now even if only a tenth of those star systems were deemed as 'interesting to visit', then each civilization would need launch 50,000 starships annually with just one of those starships reaching our own Solar System per year.
More conservative numbers would produce much fewer visits. Similarly if advanced life is not so abundant or faster than light 'interstellar' travel impossible the chances are that if an alien species has ever sent a probe/craft here then it would be a very rare event.
Those "50,000 starships launched annually" could've began 100s of thousands of years ago, maybe even millions of years ago. That's plenty of time for Earth to have been discovered or even seeded and designated as a planetary body which could support intelligent life.
originally posted by: mirageman
Say there are 1 million spacefaring civilizations in our galaxy existing at any one time amongst the 500 billion star systems. Now even if only a tenth of those star systems were deemed as 'interesting to visit', then each civilization would need launch 50,000 starships annually with just one of those starships reaching our own Solar System per year.
originally posted by: Reddaysun
a reply to: anonentity
The subject seems to be this: statements from people whose credentials are understood as being sterling, all in support of ET presence. It is an aspect of the subject of ET. In the world we live in, it is a very reasonable choice to highlight these peoples' statements to strenghten one's position. And my position is: these people aren't the first ones I'd go to for truth. I prefer my neighbor's account of some ET event.
Not a 'debunk tactic,' but a hard and fast rule of scientific proof. Your cavalier attitude to reliability of evidence is hardly uncommon, buy strikes me as the fundamental flaw in the pro-UFO argument. If the quality of evidence doesn't matter, or is trumped by quantity, how can you avoid believing in ghosts, human levitation, human-animal metamorphosis, or chemical conversion of lead to gold -- all of them substantiated by numerous stories, "only one of which has to be true to verify the phenomenon".
It's an explain-away gimmick for lousy research and scholarship. And it has crippled the credibility of UFO claims, IMHO.