Ukraine crisis: Leaders agree peace roadmap

originally posted by: ScientificRailgun

originally posted by: Xcalibur254
Great news if it actually holds. I don't see that happening though. It was just a few weeks ago that the separatists stated they wouldn't agree to any ceasefire.

CNN is reporting that some Ukrainian rebels are already planning to ignore the ceasefire.

As much as I want peace to hold, I see this lasting about as long as the last Minsk agreement.

Not to go to far off topic then. Any increase in chatter on UVB-76? At the moment I can't get the feed.

originally posted by: Bigburgh

originally posted by: ScientificRailgun

originally posted by: Xcalibur254
Great news if it actually holds. I don't see that happening though. It was just a few weeks ago that the separatists stated they wouldn't agree to any ceasefire.

CNN is reporting that some Ukrainian rebels are already planning to ignore the ceasefire.

As much as I want peace to hold, I see this lasting about as long as the last Minsk agreement.

Not to go to far off topic then. Any increase in chatter on UVB-76? At the moment I can't get the feed.

I haven't been listening tonight, I'm at work right now. Though earlier this evening I was listening and there just that comforting, monotonous buzz.

a reply to: ScientificRailgun

Thanks.

Just a recap for anyone who didn't follow from the beginning about 2 weeks ago

US wanted to arm Ukraine

Russia said no

Germany and France said no

Those 3 without the US sat in Moscow to agree to go to Minsk

Obama angry called Merkel to Washington but couldn't get her to agree arming

AND now I am sure CIA is working on plans to sabotage new agreement.

This was US foreign policy 101. Thank you for reading

To those worried that Russia will be steam rolling over Europe.

Face facts

Russia could not win a offensive war against NATO any more than Stephen hawking could win a fight against mike Tyson.

a reply to: PizzaAnyday505

US wanted to Arm Ukraine - Yup, widely reported

Russia said no - Also true, obviously

Germany and France said no - Also true (mostly, they disagreed, but didn't say no outright)

Russia, France, Ukraine, and Germany meet at Minsk - You're four for four!

Obama calls Merkel to Washington - And you were doing so good! Zero reports of this happening in either Western or Russia media reports. If you can find sources for this please post them here.

CIA working to sabotage new Minsk Agreement - Pure speculation, unless of course you have supporting documents.

Total score: 66%

Only barely passing your own US Foreign Policy Class? C'mon prof, you can do better than that.

originally posted by: ScientificRailgun
Obama calls Merkel to Washington - And you were doing so good! Zero reports of this happening in either Western or Russia media reports. If you can find sources for this please post them here.

.

Actually yea I can indeed do better

As soon as Merkel met with Putin and Hollande in Moscow agreeing to meet in 3 days in Minsk

Merkel goes to Washington to meet Obama and they give press conference where she says she and Obama disagree on arming Kiev

So

What do you think to average reader, who makes more sense, you or me.

originally posted by: PizzaAnyday505

originally posted by: ScientificRailgun
Obama calls Merkel to Washington - And you were doing so good! Zero reports of this happening in either Western or Russia media reports. If you can find sources for this please post them here.

.

Actually yea I can indeed do better

As soon as Merkel met with Putin and Hollande in Moscow agreeing to meet in 3 days in Minsk

Merkel goes to Washington to meet Obama and they give press conference where she says she and Obama disagree on arming Kiev

So

What do you think to average reader, who makes more sense, you or me.

Obama hosted Merkel on February 9th. There was no mention on Obama being "angry" at Merkel. In fact, here is exactly what Merkel said of the meeting and her thoughts on the Ukraine situation:

On Russia and Ukraine:

Chancellor Merkel: "We stand up for the same principles of inviolability of territorial integrity. For somebody who comes from Europe, I can only say if we give up this principle of territorial integrity of countries, then we will not be able to maintain the peaceful order of Europe that we’ve been able to achieve. This is not just any old point, it’s an essential, a crucial point, and we have to stand by it. And Russia has violated the territorial integrity of Ukraine in two respects: in Crimea, and also in Donetsk and Luhansk.

"So we are called upon now to come up with solutions, but not in the sense of a mediator, but we also stand up for the interests of the European peaceful order. ... And I’m very grateful that throughout the Ukraine crisis, we have been in very, very close contact with the United States of America and Europe on sanctions, on diplomatic initiatives. And this is going to be continued. And I think that’s, indeed, one of the most important messages we can send to Russia, and need to send to Russia."

Odd, there's no mention of the U.S. plan to arm Ukraine or her disagreement with it. So, I'll give you half-credit on that one. Merkel did indeed go to Washington, but there was no mention of the issue of arming Ukraine.

OH look a cease fire. We all know cease fires are just times to re arm and re deploy to better posistions. Putin has paid attention to the israeli/pali conflict i see.

It seems Putin got his arms twisted by Obama on telephone, so for now some ceasefire has been declared. Is Russia that afraid of US weapons? If so, then either Kremlin does something about them or better fold on the global theater.

Putin squandered $50B in Sochi Olympics and that money if spent on arms and weapons for Russian military would have given Kremlin more punch on the global tables. How much is Putin going to spend on the soccer world cup? Russia should cancel this event as not many from the West will travel.

NAF has taken some losses in recent fighting and for them to not take Debaltsevo would be an ill treatment. Half of the NAF is Russian citizens and their efforts and sacrifices cannot be sold cheap. If Putin thinks he is going to keep Ukraine as an unstable state fighting civil war, then he should be ready to face costs to Russia also. It is better to make a clean cut of the map of the Novorossiya provinces and end all the mess.

originally posted by: victor7
It is better to make a clean cut of the map of the Novorossiya provinces and end all the mess.

Not if you are Ukrainian.

The fact is that Putin needs to bring this to a close as Russia is turning into a pariah with a recession. That's not good for his future prospects.

I think Putin misjudged the EU's solidarity in pushing in sanctions and Ukraine's reaction to the bullying they have received since their decision to developed closer ties to the liberal West. Russia will have realised that the defeat of the separatists was a matter of time without overt support, which would not have been provided. Not only would the Ukrainian forces have become an experienced fighting force, they would have done so with Western kit.

Regards

a reply to: paraphi

I want to bring up a missing points in this discussion.

1. US wasn't involved in the peace negoiations.
2. The situation is still highly fluid.
3. This doesn't help US Russian relations
4. America is still committed to world domination regardless of the chess master Putin.

Putin is smarter than our leaders by far but they are commited to war and have institutionalized it, it has become the new norm and the American people have stop protesting it. So, if the peace hold which I fervently hope. This isn't the last gasp of the Warmongers in London and Washington just one defeat in long struggle to rule the world.

That's unpossible, I've been told for weeks and weeks that the USA wants war with Russia... So how could we let this happen.

Seriously I hope this works this time.

a reply to: Harry42MO

I think that the French and The Germans were representing the EU and the west.

I am not so sure Putin is as intelligent as you want to think he is. He's not played a very intelligent game so far. Under his watchful eye, how many neighbours have scarpered to the West? Each time he's got increasingly aggressive. Perhaps the criticism of the EU was not predicting his annexation of Crimea and meddling in the east of Ukraine, but he's still paying for that and there is no sign sanctions will be loosened.

Regards

I don't think this ceasefire will hold. Ukes will not give up Debaltsevo and troops in the city will not surrender as per the orders from Kiev.

Time and again, like in last 2 days, Ukes will keep on attacking the village of Logvinovo and NAF will keep repelling them. That's why 50 tanks and other heavies crossed the border from Russia yesterday.

In the event Ukes cannot unblock the cauldron, the troops inside will be in trouble in two weeks. For those two weeks fighting will keep going on and Minsk 2.0 will be good only to light a cigarette.

The amount of authority that Putin and Kremlin have in Russia is good enough to crack down on various ills internally. That will strengthen the federation and the core of the population.

Externally, Putin should send in heavy equipment in numbers and carve out Novorossiya quickly and put an end to the story of Ukraine.

originally posted by: Irishhaf
That's unpossible, I've been told for weeks and weeks that the USA wants war with Russia... So how could we let this happen.

Seriously I hope this works this time.

Because the US wasn't involved in the talks

a reply to: victor7

So just to be clear here, you're advocating that Putin and Russia cause even more death and destruction than they have already caused, give the Minsk agreement the finger, and steamroll all over Kiev's, Germany's, and France's good will.

a reply to: paraphi

He is playing a weak hand if this was poker, but he fighting an opponent much more formitable that the West. It is history and persception of Russia in the minds of men. We in the West want to believe that Putin is the Devil and we are the Angels. Speaking of weak hands, Putin knows he can't win a straight up fight conventionally and that any conflict with the West would end in the exinction of not only Russia but humanity itself. Peace and Diplomacy as will as showing flase military strength to the rubes in the cheap seats are the only tools he can use in order to avoid a war he can't win. Note, the American military is impossible big, including allies, so as big a the Russian military is. It's no match for the US/Western military hegonomy.

a reply to: ScientificRailgun

Sweet Guns!! please take it day by day and find for yourself as to how valid all the agreements and goodwills are regarding Minsk 2.0.

Putin is clever, he mentioned "I hope UAF soldiers in Debaltsevo give in their weapons". That is the bone that he has left in the theatre or rather the vodka bottle for both parties to fight over and give a finger to the ceasefire.

Fierce fighting still going on with UAF trying to free the Debaltsevo pocket and the trapped soldiers trying to break out.

If Kiev doesn`t give in when the cease fire comes in working the 15 February 0:00 Kiev time, talks have failed to accomplish anything and I suspect there will be a big offensive soon causing the second collapse of the Ukrainian army.

No idea where that will end and what will happen to the rest of the Ukraine, most likely I suspect war in the whole of the Ukraine to be following soon.

And American apologists, what should Russia do then ?

- Go in and take out the corrupt government and prevent a long and bloody civil war with the risk of becoming subjected to guerilla attacks by certain fractions in the Ukraine ?

- Or should it stay outside of it and let a bloody civil war take place which mimics the Rwandan Civil War and/or Bosnian War ?