when will YOU go into "seclusion"? when there are 50 cases? 100 cases? 1000 cases?

Don't talk too much about when and where you are going to isolate yourself.
Some virus ridden news crew will track you down and do an expose' about how crazy isolationist preppers are.

With regard to there being other viruses that have killed more people....I totally agree.....flu kills tens of thousands.....pneumonia, even gastroenteritis......and so I DO think about the mass hysteria and the constant bombardment thru the media......fear mongering, I guess is what I am trying to say.......all over one Ebola death in America.....(I know there have been thousands of deaths in the world, but I am addressing the American media over kill at present). I have been suspicious of the government since 9/11......so I wonder why all the hype.....but...(and this is a BIG BUT....) This Ebola virus is a nasty bugger. That's one point that pushes people towards fear and doom porn...the other is; it is obvious the CDC is lying...that lies and disinformation ARE being spread....but why? This is scary in itself....I am NOT a prepper...but the idea of an "escape plan" has been in my mind since 9/11.....especially since I live in a MAJOR city....and since seeing the disaster that was New Orleans after Katrina....I know there isn't ANYONE who will help me when the SHTF but myself.....as I mentioned....being prepared, (mentally and physically), isn't the same as packing...

I think time will tell. As well, I am a bit of a germaphobe....but not so much that I take vaccinations.....I think my fear of "germs" is that I have always had a thought that man was going to be majorly wiped down to the bare minimum by a tiny little organism.....or at the very least....the PTB would take advantage of an outbreak of a scary virus like Ebola to finally institute that New World Order they've been spouting off about for several decades now.....

originally posted by: Krazysh0t
a reply to: Cornczech

I live in Baltimore, MD. Our population is 622 thousand people. 1000 cases would be a pretty low number too. Not even 1%. But hey, feel free to panic. I hear that always ends well.

Since when is panicking equated with taking rational steps to save the lives of yourself and those close to you?

All I see in the OP is concern and the contemplation of out of the ordinary measures.

Do you think those who have died of Ebola would have wished to have avoided contact with people? Do you think, given the choice and hindsight, that they would choose to quit their jobs and remain isolated or lose their lives?

a reply to: Cornczech

When it reaches the alarming rate and an unacceptable amount of the human population is dying, the world's best scientific minds will come together to help defeat this virus. It's a shame the governments world over can't let their hunger for power, territory and differences keep them from working together to help benefit mankind. Just think how many medical, environmental and energy problems would be solved if the world brightest minds focused more on humanities problems than developing technology and biological viruses to be used in wars.

a reply to: Cornczech

I think you have posed an extremely legitimate question, completely appropriate for this forum, this site, these times.

I would question the agenda of anyone implicitly or explicitly questioning you're right to ask or the appropriateness of such questions, especially given the following:

originally posted by: ikonoklast

originally posted by: PlanetXisHERE
a reply to: ikonoklast

So, what's the worse case scenario worldwide, based on extrapolation of these charts?

Ebola spreads exponentially. From a single case, it only has to double less than 33 times to exceed the total population of Earth. So the worst case scenario is that everyone on the planet who does not have natural immunity or cannot isolate themselves would catch it.

Between 50-90% of those who catch Ebola die. 70.8% is believed to be the most accurate current figure based on known clinical data. But that's for people who received medical treatment where the cases were followed from start to finish. In a worst case scenario it would eventually reach a point where most cases could not obtain medical care and the death rate would likely worsen.

The charts are based on reported cases and deaths from WHO. This outbreak has already doubled about 13 times in about 10 months. It only has to double at most 20 more times to have doubled 33 times. If it continues doubling at the current pace (doubling again 13 times every 10 months), that will take a little more than 15 months, which would be before the end of January 2016.

Long before then, economies and social systems would collapse in pretty much total chaos. Food and other necessities would be in short supply. A worst case scenario with Ebola would likely be the end of this civilization as we know it.

I'm really hoping we can avoid such a worst case scenario, though I am not seeing much reason to expect that. To avoid this, you have to bring the growth down to where there is an average of less than 1 new case from current cases (R0 less than 1). Then it stops doubling and slowly dies out.

I only know of 3 ways to do that, but perhaps there are more:

1. Quarantine/isolation

2. A treatment or vaccine that can be produced in sufficient quantity

3. Luck or divine intervention

The longer the epidemic grows, the more difficult #1 becomes because there are too many people infected, and over a wider area. At least one of the top Ebola experts in the world believes #2 is unlikely to be achievable in time and that belief in miracle technology being invented and produced in time makes it less likely enough will be done for #1 to be achieved in time. As for #3, some believe the Spanish Flu epidemic only ended because that virus mutated enough to no longer be so deadly to humans.

.....and this, if people are attempting to compare Ebola to the Flu. Apples and oranges, only the old, young and weak die from the Flu. Except of course for the Spanish Flu, what was it, 18 million? The same percentage today would mean over 100 million......I think that is the only Flu which can be legitimately compared with Ebola...

originally posted by: PurpleDog UK

originally posted by: Malraux


Is Ebola highly contagious like a cold or flu or does it take a "fluke" to get it?

A common cold requires 100 to 250 cold viruses or virions to be transmitted…….

The Ebola virus requires 1 (one) Virion or virus particle for transmission…….

It's VERY contagious……. info from friends who are virologists in the UK.

PDUK

originally posted by: Painterz
Flu kills around 50,000 people in the USA every year. And nobody talks about bugging out in flu season...

Flu mostly kills the kids, the aged, and immune deficient people and it only kills 1-2% of those infected. Ebola kills 50% or more and when more people have it and the system can properly nurse the infected that 50% is sure to rise.

a reply to: Cornczech

I am already being paranoid. I will stay away from EVERYONE. We have enough cases already to just stay away.

EDIT TO ADD:
Um, there is a huge difference between Flu and Ebola.

a reply to: Cornczech

How long can the virus live on a coin or paper money? all this talk of washing hands tells me that money can carry it just long enough to become exposed, it becomes almost as surreal or shall I say as real as the kindergarten, circle dot, cootie shot, except for this cootie, there is no immediate cure in sight and from the looks of things it can become a different type of cootie, to me the fate is sealed and what we see is the beginning of mass death beyond comprehension.

At some point in an infectious sick person will be handing someone money, from his hand and that has been on his body, they have probably sneezed or coughed on it, I remember the doctor on CNN saying they they burn all clothes and sheets of people that have Ebola, is this being overlooked?

I also thought that since it will be cold in the North and Northeast this might help but from what I have read, the virus likes the cold and the dark, to survive.

a reply to: Cornczech
I don't eat African bushmeat, handle dead or dying people, or paddle around in bodily fluids, so I'm not susceptible to the usual chains of transmission. I suppose if there were a few hundred local cases I might start to become concerned, but I'm really much more concerned about being hit by a car, slipping on ice this winter, or being the victim of a violent crime. These are not quite as sexy as a bleeding-from-your-eyes hemorrhagic fever, but they're much more probable.

1. If it were to go full blown pandemic and there where a gazillion cases in every city what makes you think you can stock up on food at that point, that's when everybody else is going to do it also. You waited too long.

2. WHEN / IF it goes airborne and there are thousands of cases in the US or a few hundred in my state and it's spreading then I will go into a pandemics scenario. (I already have over a years supply of canned & dry goods)
(along with masks, bleach, plastic, tape)

a reply to: tadaman

On Friday I had TWO patients of African nationality.....I have seen patients with AIDS and not freaked out.....been exposed to malaria, all kinds of fears working in the OR and in organ/tissue recovery, (this was during the mad bow scare in the 90's....signs in the posting rooms, morgues, funeral homes about being careful with bodily fluids because of bovine encepholopathy (ok, my spell check failed and I'm too lazy to look it up...but you get the point!), mad cow disease).....and I have only gotten the woogies...I never had any thoughts of stopping working in the OR...stop working in tissue recover.....stop working in medicine.....but on Friday....I had to actually TRY not to look cross eyed at those patients.....I didn't don a mask or double gloves or actually take any extra precautions...I mean...these people are humans...they have feelings....imagine how they would feel....BUT.....this is a scary, scary disease.....mad cow scared me....but I have NEVER stuck myself with a needle that held bodily fluids....(though I HAVE passed a few sterile needles thru my skin,,,,)....so I was not as nervous about mad cow in spite of how horrible it is to die from it....because I would have to be pretty careless to get it and it was rare TO get it! But Ebola scares me. I will admit that I am concerned....
I am concerned about living in a hood of Chicago that has shootings EVERY DAY.....I worry about getting hit by a car when I ride my bike to work....but I don't lock myself in the house or even think about it.....even when I WITNESS a shooting or almost get killed by a cab driver or an a$$hole in a car....so I am not prone to being too skittish....but when you know your government lies to you....and there are people getting ill in your country and nobody seems to be doing anything about it but talking about and writing about it all over the news.....well...ya'll get my drift, I think

Any how, I am wandering a bit.

I have decided to re-read "The Hot Zone" by Richard Preston. When I read it in the 90's...Ebola was an obscure virus in the dark, far away continent of Africa.......so it was just a good read...but now I will be reading it to obtain doe "truths" about this virus....not just the word of a media and government that has proven it won't hesitate to lie and hide about important things

a reply to: PlanetXisHERE

There is no way to avoid exposure. Worrying about it is just a waste of time. It's not a big issue. The OP as a medical professional is naturally at an elevated risk of contracting a dangerous disease, but that comes with the territory. She should have known what she was getting into when she signed up. That doesn't mean she should go running to the hill because a few cases of a deadly disease show up in her home country.

If you get it, you get it. If it kills you, it kills you. But I'm not worried in any case. Maybe if society starts to break down like in any one of those contagion movies/books that come out (ex: The Stand), but in that case I'd be fearing other people more than a disease.

a reply to: Cornczech

I sympathise with your position.

It doesn't matter if your town has a population of 100 or 1 million, if you work in the healthcare industry, you will have some form of exposure to Ebola that regular people might not.

I wish I had an answer.

It's something I ponder myself.

originally posted by: WeRpeons
a reply to: Cornczech

When it reaches the alarming rate and an unacceptable amount of the human population is dying, the world's best scientific minds will come together to help defeat this virus. It's a shame the governments world over can't let their hunger for power, territory and differences keep them from working together to help benefit mankind. Just think how many medical, environmental and energy problems would be solved if the world brightest minds focused more on humanities problems than developing technology and biological viruses to be used in wars.

Those great scientific minds have been working on a cure for cancer for how long?

The problem lies within power and greed, first we have to overcome this disease and virus.


My thoughts on seclusion are that it would be too late for to many. For myself I'm not sure if this is something one can run or hide from.

a reply to: Cornczech

Now, that is a good place to go vacationing anytime. I'm not bias or anything.

If you have to go there to get away, make sure you have enough food so you don't have to go into town much. Having some good quality dried essential stuff out there wouldn't be a bad Idea. Some of the stuff isn't bad. The crystal eggs would be a good candidate for the camp, that way they could be left there in a metal box and used and rotated occasionally. We did get some of those, the shelf life is over six years and they are nice for making cakes if you are out of eggs. We keep an opened envelope in the cupboard for such emergencies. Canned butter doesn't freeze and get ruined either, it is a good option for stocking the camp. Refined coconut oil is another good option.

I'm assuming they just go there mostly for hunting and fishing season. Having some of this stuff out there would be a good idea, even flour can be kept in one of those airtight metal containers that they sell. It would keep the mice out.

If you are concerned about Ebola, you should be really concernbed about a whole lot of other things to, such as influenza...

provides updated estimates of the range of flu-associated deaths that occurred in the United States during the three decades prior to 2007. CDC estimates that from the 1976-1977 season to the 2006-2007 flu season, flu-associated deaths ranged from a low of about 3,000 to a high of about 49,000 people.

Source

That's a year.

Or maybe yellow fever...

There are an estimated 200 000 cases of yellow fever, causing 30 000 deaths, worldwide each year, with 90% occurring in Africa.

Source

That one's a Hemorrhagic Fever as well.

Or maybe Dengue Fever...

An estimated 500 000 people with severe dengue require hospitalization each year, a large proportion of whom are children. About 2.5% of those affected die.

Source

That's 12 and a half thousand a year.

Or maybe AIDS/HIV?

HIV continues to be a major global public health issue, having claimed more than 39 million lives so far. In 2013, 1.5 [1.4–1.7] million people died from HIV-related causes globally.

Source

A million and half dead last year.

Or Malaria?

In 2012, malaria caused an estimated 627 000 deaths (with an uncertainty range of 473 000 to 789 000), mostly among African children.

Source

How about Rabies?

Infection causes tens of thousands of deaths every year, mostly in Asia and Africa.

Source

Or hell, how about Pneumonia?

Pneumonia kills an estimated 1.1 million children under the age of five years every year – more than AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis combined.

Source

Sorry but people infected have managed to travel all over the the place, by aircraft, a very tight confined space, and there has been very, very little transmission. Take the guy in Dallas that died. How many people did he have close encounters with traveling from Liberia to Dallas? And how many infections happened?

Hype and fear mongering. Sure there is a chance you could get it but there is a chance of you getting a whole lot of things and dying. Live your life, take whatever precautions you feel necessary but don't freak out over something that there is a very miniscule real chance of you contracting, even being a health care worker.

originally posted by: phinubian
a reply to: Cornczech

How long can the virus live on a coin or paper money? all this talk of washing hands tells me that money can carry it just long enough to become exposed, it becomes almost as surreal or shall I say as real as the kindergarten, circle dot, cootie shot, except for this cootie, there is no immediate cure in sight and from the looks of things it can become a different type of cootie, to me the fate is sealed and what we see is the beginning of mass death beyond comprehension.

At some point in an infectious sick person will be handing someone money, from his hand and that has been on his body, they have probably sneezed or coughed on it, I remember the doctor on CNN saying they they burn all clothes and sheets of people that have Ebola, is this being overlooked?

I also thought that since it will be cold in the North and Northeast this might help but from what I have read, the virus likes the cold and the dark, to survive.

Memo to myself.... use VISA!!

Korg.

If there is one confirmed case in our town I will take my grandchildren out of school and home school them immediately.

My daughter and son-in-law have to work, but I (being a retired Professor) can stay with them at home and school them.

I have given a lot of thought to this and unfortunately would also go as much into seclusion with the grandchildren as is humanly possible.

I have already purchased child sized gloves and masks for them.

Protecting my grandchildren will be my #1 priority and they will be secluded as long as there is even one case within a 30 mile radius.

originally posted by: Cornczech
a reply to: Krazysh0t

I think I meant 100 cases in MY city....not just in the US or the world.

A lot would depend on the size of the city one lives in. If there are 100 cases in my little town of 1500 that's waaaay too many. if there were 5 cases I would self seclude.

a reply to: Cornczech

Great post, and you ask an important question. Did you see this documentary yet, posted by another ATS member?
www.abovetopsecret.com...