Ebola; Epidemic, Pandemic, or Fear Mongering. Actual Rates of Transmission.

Stop trying to down play the miserable ‪#‎failure‬ of the ‪#‎CDC‬ in handling the first ‪#‎ebola‬ case in America.

Infectious dose:

Flu: 100-1000
Measles: 100 - 12500

Ebola: 1-10

These are the number of virus particles it takes to infect an individual.

Direct contact is NOT the only means of transmission it most certainly CAN be transmitted by indirect contact:

Overall, Ebola virus socio-ecology systems have shown to be linked by direct and indirect transmission through contact with objects from patients.

For example, the blood or secretions of an infected person or objects that have been contaminated with infected secretions can reach humans from a variety of hosts/sources

Need of surveillance response systems to combat Ebola outbreaks and other emerging infectious diseases in African countries

And

Case identification and detection, contact tracing and patient clinical assessment and management are not the object of this Guidance document and instructions can be found elsewhere.1, 2 However, regarding IPC measures to be implemented during interviews for contact tracing and case finding in the community, the following principles should be kept in mind: 1) shaking hands should be avoided;

2) a distance of more than one metre (about 3 feet) should be maintained between interviewer and interviewee;

3) PPE is not required if this distance is assured and when interviewing asymptomatic individuals (e.g., neither fever, nor diarrhoea, bleeding or vomiting) and provided there will be no contact with the environment, potentially contaminated with a possible/probable case;

4) it is advisable to provide workers undertaking contact tracing and case finding in the community with alcohol-based hand rub solutions and instructions to appropriately perform hand hygiene.

Interim Infection Prevention and Control Guidance for Care of Patients with Suspected or Confirmed Filovirus Haemorrhagic Fever in Health-Care Settings, with Focus on Ebola
August 2014

And

Infection, although occurring indirectly through body fluids, is strongly suspected to occur through airborne as well as skin contact transmission.

Ebola Hemorrhagic Fever (EHF): Mechanism of Transmission and Pathogenicity

Mosquitos and other animals:

The susceptibility to infection of arthropod taxa can be assessed by virus replication after intrathoracic inoculation of virus. Turell et al. [8] reported that EBO virus, subtype Reston (EBO-R), failed to replicate in Culex or Aedes mosquitoes and in Ornithodoros ticks.

However, Kunz et al. [9] previously reported that MBG virus could persist in Aedes mosquitoes for 3 weeks or more, indicating that certain arthropods exposed towasp.Altho the virus could be transient or persistent carriers of infection.

Many potential blood-feeding arthropod vectors (phlebotomine flies, culicoids, ixodid ticks, mites, fleas, and wingless flies associated with bats) have not been tested by experimental inoculation.

The susceptibility of insects used by humans or wild vertebrate reservoir hosts as a source of food (including termites, moths, and larvae [grubs]) also has not been explored. As will be discussed below, there has been recent speculation about the possible role of leafhoppers in filovirus ecology; therefore, experimental studies should determine the host range of EBO virus for plant-feeding bugs.

So mixed results of very incomplete studies. All subtypes need to be tested against all possible vectors present within the potentially affected area(s).

EBO and MBG viruses are similar in genome organization and have extensive sequence homology but do not share cross-reactive antigens [33]. The ecology of EBO viruses is certainly more complex than that of MBG. Operational hypotheses on the ecology of EBO virus must take into account the factors discussed below.

Geographic distribution:

At least 4 genetic subtypes of EBO virus have been recognized: Zaire (EBO-Z), Côte d'Ivoire (EBO-CI) [34], Sudan (EBO-S) [35], and EBO-R. EBO-R was recovered in the Philippines [36] and from monkeys imported from the Philippines to the United States and Europe.

...

The occurrence of a distinct EBO virus subtype in the Philippines has important implications for filovirus ecology, since it implies that EBO group viruses may have been carried by migratory hosts at some point in their evolution.

Ecology of Marburg and Ebola Viruses: Speculations and Directions for Future Research

There are other animal hosts as well, it is respiratory in pigs but it is asymtpomatic in dogs; the kinds of dogs that eat vomit that may or may not have been spewed all over a Texas sidewalk by a person infected with one of the most dangerous pathogens known to man before being power washed into storm drains.

Although dogs are susceptible to Ebola, the CDC concluded that "infected dogs are asymptomatic", meaning that they do not develop symptoms.

During the early phase of their infection, however, they can spread the disease to humans and other animals through licking, biting, urine, and feces.

However, the good news is that once the virus is cleared from the dog it is no longer contagious. Dogs do not die from Ebola infections.

source

This gives lie to the White House graphic:

We found EBOV to be shed in a wide variety of bodily fluids during the acute phase of illness, including saliva, breast milk, stool, and tears. In most cases, the infected bodily fluid was not visibly contaminated by blood. Of particular concern is the frequent presence of EBOV in saliva early during the course of disease, where it could be transmitted to others through intimate contact and from sharing food,especially given the custom, in many parts of Africa, of eating with the hands from a common plate.

source

a reply to: criticalhit
Awesome, thought-provoking post.

Wow.

First, I think it is semantics to argue if this virus is airborne / will go airborne. It is already demonstrated that this virus can be spread thru aerosol droplets much like the flu. That in itself is a very dangerous combination when this virus starts spreading in colder weather (where is is proven it lives longer) within a population that will be carrying other respiratory infections and spreading their aerosol droplets far and wide.

Second, I do think this is true doom porn. Not fear mongering. We now have a confirmed infection in a first-world hospital to a person (Spanish nurse) with only two fully haz-mat suited exposures to the patient, and just now I read there may be a second nurse infected, also exposed only in full haz-mat gear in the same hospital. Hundreds there being observed, and who knows where this nurse went on her vacation running a fever for over a week before she FINALLY went to the hospital, so likely there will be more, her family, friends, others...its doom porn to them...We have dozens being placed in isolation and hundreds in fear in Dallas, and to them it's true doom porn. In west Africa its went beyond doom porn to apocalyptic. We have winter coming, and a second dangerous virus spreading wildly thru the country, and its not outside the realm of possibilities (hell its likely) that ER and hospitals and doctor's offices will be overwhelmed this winter. Hajj is wrapping up, and Muslims will be dispersing from Saudi Arabia soon spreading whatever they brought with them and caught there back to their home countries (thousands will be coming back here) - and that adds another virus (MERS) to the pile that is rapidly getting hard to sort out.

Hell I wish this was HIV at least that is treatable, and it is truly a disease that can only be passed with bodily fluids, and even then, very SPECIFIC bodily fluids (saliva KILLS it, sweat KILLS it, and it dies in seconds when exposed to air). You can avoid HIV unless you are physically ATTACKED...an Ebola patient only has to sneeze or sling a drop of sweat, or blood, or puke, or pee.... And it takes hundreds of HIV viral particles to establish an infection - Ebola can establish an infection with a SINGLE particle.

That RO chart is misleading, so one HIV patient infects about the same as one Ebola patient. Difference is the period of TIME involved with that number of infections - HIV takes 7 to 10 years to run its course without intervention, Ebola takes 15-30 days. I would say that the RO must be combined with the time from infection to death to make that chart make sense. And remove those on that chart that are currently manageable / treatable / vaccinatable / less than deadly, and you leave one - Ebola.

Ebola, if let loose, will also infect our animals, and not just bats. In one outbreak in Uganda, researchers tested wild dogs for infection and found they were asymptomatic carriers. They do eventually clear the infection, but during the height of one outbreak, over 31% of dogs in the area were also infected. Once it gets into our wildlife, we will never get rid of it, and only the immune will be left.

That chart will most definitely change as soon as Ebola gets a foothold in a colder climate and the R0 will undoubtably go up. That is not fear mongering, that is simple logic. Logic I see sorely lacking in the public these days. And definitely lacking in the talking heads that are trying their best to console us and prevent the panic they know is inevitable.

Third...I see quite a few people that seem to shrug this off. When this doom porn hits, they will die (well, about 50-70% anyways). Please do us some big favors and get some big red buttons that say "I ain't worried about no Ebola" so the rest of us can avoid you like the plague you will be when it comes to your town. And if those with the red buttons become survivors, the rest of us can hook them up to blood pumps and suck out the antibodies to save the rest. (had to add some nightmare to some doom porn).

Meanwhile, I watch Bardabunga (that volcano in Iceland that is still dropping its caldera about a meter a day). That was good doom porn before Ebola got here. Now...I pray for it to blow and bring on some volcanic winter, so we can put a stop to all air travel and maybe, then get a handle on this and stop it from wiping us all out.

Hoping for a vaccine....soon.

Take a look at this report on NBC News about all the protective gear flying out of the stores!

www.nbcnews.com...

Ebola in Spain, oops.