21 Days Later

a reply to: Thurisaz

It's not airborne between humans yet - I think we can trust that info. ...I broke the "airborne" story a few months ago (when the Winnipeg lab showed that Ebola passed from pigs to macaques without contact, but did not pass between monkeys in a similar fashion) - and have been following the science since then. It's obviously not airborne, although yes, limited aerosol transmission may occur.

Most revealing, if this Ebola was already airborne, we'd be seeing infection rates more than double than what we're seeing now.

....Fact is though, the more Ebola spreads between people, the more likely it is to evolve to be airborne.

a reply to: MystikMushroom

I agree, that would be an effective way to stop the spread of this disease. At least from getting out of a countries borders. But if this gets, or is airborne, then what? Plus if this can be spread by animals, same thing, then what?

I admit I haven't followed this very closely for whatever reasons, and that I should at least get some more than basic knowledge of all this.

Anyone have cheat sheets on this? Or know of a good WebSite that has all this laid out in an understandable format?

I'd appreciate a link, or two. Thanx in advance, Syx.

a reply to: SyxPak

Problem is, all the info is suspect in some way - so cheat sheets don't help much. ....You are absolutely right - quarantine doesn't work, especially with animal borne diseases. Too bad we polluted and contaminated our world so much that diseases are mutating, adapting and evolving at hyper-speed. Guess that'll show us. on second thought....

It isn't airborne, but it's highly infectious via bodily fluids and that's really what matters. All you have to do is think of the last time you used a public bathroom. Then think of the people too lazy to wash their hands. Then combine that with being in an environment where people are often hot and sweaty in third-world conditions where you can't get a shower every day. Stuff is going to get around, know what I'm saying?

Other than doing everything to cover up coughs and the phlegmy spittle they spray out and quarantine anyone who hints at being a bit snotty or having stomach-flu like symptoms in Ebola affected countries, it's also going to be a matter of public sanitation. The health-care workers should be traveling and running errands so the potentially diseased don't. Make it convenient as possible for the sick to stay home. If you can adress the yuck-factor to a level that may quell the most paranoid, that's probably the way to cut out the conditions that are most favorable to the spread of this virus.

It may sound stupid, but I'd suggest sanitizing wipes and lotion being readily available in any location with public restrooms or where goods are frequently handled along with frequent health inspections of businesses to ensure cleanliness. If things can be kept fairly tidy and spotless, the only way to get the germ is to be "slimed" by somebody obviously ill.

Of course various contries in Africa aren't the only places that are non-chalant about sanitation, there are likely other places in the world where an outbreak would be worse because things are pretty gross.

How sad and scary... I live a city where one of the infected American doctors has been taken for treatment/recovery. It seems like the majority of people here don't even know about it, with the exception of the medical professionals and med students. One med student told me it was a publicity stunt on behalf of the Med Center(which is under new direction, apparently) and one doctor I talked to didn't say much, other than 'if there is an outbreak she doesn't have to go back to work'...The few civilians I've personally talked to about it were beyond freaked out.
In general, I think the majority of people are uninformed about current events... Unless it involves celebrities.

a reply to: StoutBroux

People around here are constantly talking about the elite wanting the world's population to lessen by the billions, most likely beginning with the poorest people/countries first. If that idea is true, then why would the US or anyone of means rush to 'save' the rest? It seems to me the plan is falling into place perfectly. There very well may be a vaccine for the virus that only the few have and screw everyone else.

this being the case what better way to control us....maybe these fema camps we hear about are for the people who want to run away when the they unleash the virus into the western world...for all we know africa is a trial run...or maybe i have been watching too many movies

a reply to: hopenotfeariswhatweneed

...for all we know africa is a trial run...

Or not.

What We’re Afraid to Say About Ebola

....(1) the Ebola virus spreads from West Africa to megacities in other regions of the developing world.

....(2) an Ebola virus could mutate to become transmissible through the air. You can now get Ebola only through direct contact with bodily fluids. But viruses like Ebola are notoriously sloppy in replicating, meaning the virus entering one person may be genetically different from the virus entering the next. The current Ebola virus’s hyper-evolution is unprecedented; there has been more human-to-human transmission in the past four months than most likely occurred in the last 500 to 1,000 years. Each new infection represents trillions of throws of the genetic dice.

If certain mutations occurred, it would mean that just breathing would put one at risk of contracting Ebola. Infections could spread quickly to every part of the globe, as the H1N1 influenza virus did in 2009, after its birth in Mexico.

Why are public officials afraid to discuss this? They don’t want to be accused of screaming “Fire!” in a crowded theater....

This is about humanitarianism and self-interest. If we wait for vaccines and new drugs to arrive to end the Ebola epidemic, instead of taking major action now, we risk the disease’s reaching from West Africa to our own backyards.

Michael T. Osterholm is the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.

No one cares as much about the Ebola outbreak in Africa as they do about if Ebola made it into Europe, the Americas or Asia. But if it keeps on spreading in Africa, it could reach the "mainland" easier.

a reply to: darkbake

Yes. Like the man said:

If we wait for vaccines and new drugs to arrive to end the Ebola epidemic, instead of taking major action now, we risk the disease’s reaching from West Africa to our own backyards.

And...

…..control could be attained by preventing over half of the secondary transmissions per primary case. ….In a worst-case hypothetical scenario, should the outbreak continue with recent trends, the case burden could gain an additional 77,181 to 277,124 cases by the end of 2014.

And again...

The death toll has risen to more than 2,400 people out of 4,784 cases, WHO director general Margaret Chan told reporters at the UN health agency’s headquarters in in Geneva on Friday, noting the figures could be an underestimate.

….Michael Osterholm is the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. .…raised a possibility that he said virologists are loath to discuss openly but consider behind closed doors: the prospect that the Ebola virus could mutate to become transmissible through the air.

….The key to containing the outbreak, Osterholm stressed, is to beef up efforts to stop the spread of the virus.

…."If we wait for vaccines and new drugs to arrive to end the Ebola epidemic, instead of taking major action now, we risk the disease's reaching from West Africa to our own backyards,"….

…."Ebola cannot be ignored in the hope it will burn itself out," Peter Piot, one of the scientists who first identified the Ebola virus in 1976, and his colleague Adam Kucharski, Piot, now director of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said in their editorial.

And this:

MAN I've been following this. It's like it's more than doubling every month.

But lets just say double.
about 14 June 500 cases.
on 18 July it hit 1000 cases.
2k august 19th
4k september 5th
8k October
16k November
32k December
64k January
128k Feb
256k March
512k April
1 million cases May 2015...

It needs to burn out or else it will keep on going...

originally posted by: DaRAGE
....It needs to burn out or else it will keep on going...

It needs to be stopped before it mutates, goes airborne and starts spreading around the world. At which point it will have over 7 billion potential victims.

fyi - Quarantine won't work. Doesn't work. Never works. Can't work.




.

a reply to: soficrow
Yahoo news link - US State Department buying 160,000 Hazmat type suits

With the U.S. State Department alone putting out a bid for 160,000 suits, we encourage all protective apparel companies to increase their manufacturing capacity for sealed seam garments so that our industry can do its part in addressing this threat to global health.Mr. Ryan continued, "With our diverse global operations and the breadth of our protective apparel line incorporating superior sealed seam technology, we are ideally situated to assist organizations worldwide as they handle Ebola.

Guess the US is not worried at all about Ebola - they only bought 160,000 hazmat type suits! Do they know something we don't? Would be nice if they donated a few thousand suits to areas that desperately need them. Maybe not as many doctors and nurses would keep dying from Ebolo.

a reply to: CassandraX

Hey - starred you and forgot to come back. Sorry. Your post highlights important news. ....One thing I've lost sight of is the importance of Ebola's rapid mutations. ....The longer H2H transmission occurs, the more mutations will accumulate. Maybe it will go airborne but most important, rapid mutation threatens the viability of new treatments and vaccines - all developed for specific strains. Point being, if more new strains emerge, treatments and vaccines in development now will be obsolete before production even starts.


The only real solution is to try and stop the epidemic in West Africa. Yes, it may be too late. But there's still a chance so we have to try - because NOT trying just guarantees failure.

1. Cut off all air traffic going out from those infected nations.

2. Quarantine the entire population for a period of two weeks.

3. Set up perimeters around entry ways in or out of those infected nations.


Quarantine is the only answer to any pandemic. With each new case the chances of the virus mutating with other viruses and/or becoming more contagious and airborne on it's own increases.

If it ever does become more cotangent or airborne we will witness something akin to the walking dead or 28 days later.

a reply to: Fromabove

...Quarantine is the only answer to any pandemic.

History -and science- show that quarantine doesn't work. Especially with animal-borne diseases. Ebola infects a huge range of animals from pigs and dogs to apes and monkeys. It's carried by a fruit bat, thought but not proven to be "the" reservoir. Here is a map showing that fruit bat's range, outlined with the dotted magenta line. ....Do you seriously think that entire area can -or should- be quarantined?









Getting fed up having to keep beating the same ol' dead horse....

a reply to: soficrow


Some dead horses i see loads are.

More chance of getting struck by lightning.
More people die from flu,malaria,crossing the road.
It burned out every other time so it will this time.
We are safe here because we are super sterile and our hospitals can cope no matter how many get sick.

a reply to: Fromabove

And when the next Country's get it they will say nothing for fear of been cut off to.

I think Kashmir is ripe for the picking right now.....with the floods that have taken a major toll and disease piling up, I can see ebola wiping this area out within a year and right now they are sitting ducks for it.

a reply to: soficrow

Thanks for the star/encouragement.



Have been reading other sites around the world to see how other countries feel/worry about Ebola. One of the sites in India has 5 articles on Ebola on their front page. I found an older article rather interesting (scary) and just don't see much on this topic at all.

sex workers in Kolkata’s biggest red light district area Sonagachi have been asked to not entertain Africans. Durbar Mahila Samanwaya Committee (DMSC), a forum of 1,30,000 sex workers in West Bengal, has warned of a life risk should they come in contact with infected persons.

The organisation is also training and providing classes to sex workers to identify the signs and symptoms of the disease so that they can spot an Ebola-affected person.

The Health Site - India

Now if this was in the US - it probably be considered discrimination and a law suit filed!


Do remember the press saying Ebola was still contagious for 60 days if a person survived it. So how early in the infection can it be transmitted sexually? What if Sawyer - the American who died of Ebola after getting off the plane in Nigera had been out on the town partying the night before? I can understand India not wanting to take any chances.