21 Days Later

Ebola Cases Double After 21-Day Incubation Period

August 15, 2014: 2,127 cases; 1,145 deaths. At last report, for September 5, 2014: 4,293 cases; 2,296 deaths.

This translates to 722 new cases reported per week between August 15 and September 5, 2014. Sick patients are being turned away from overwhelmed Ebola clinics by the taxi load - and infected taxis are not sterilized. Most victims outside cities are not counted. The actual case number is at least 4 times higher. And climbing.

In Liberia, disappointment at U.S. military's planned Ebola response

Ebola Outbreak & Hunting Boko Haram aired Tuesday, September 9, at 10 p.m. on PBS and will stream in full, for free, online at pbs.org/frontline.

Ebola: "Fighting a Forest Fire With Spray Bottles"

….Media attention is constant but much of the focus is on whether the virus will kill Europeans or Americans. Journalists come to film staff in exotic yellow hazmat suits, to photograph tanned, exhausted expatriate aid workers, and then they go home and tell the story of the poor Africans and the brave foreigners who came to save them. They are in love with the romance of the dirt roads and killer virus, but miss the outrage and helplessness we are living every day.

We see entire villages wiped out, we follow the tangled webs of extended families as one by one they become sick and die. We live in a world where conversations revolve around where to put the all the bodies no one has come to bury. We separate sick parents from healthy children or the reverse. We listen to the brokenhearted wails of a woman who has lost the last of her ten children, and then a week later we see her in our triage tent with her small grandson and we watch them die.

No one is asking where the rest of the response is. They don’t question why, after five months of talk, and more than 1,500 known deaths, the epidemic is still raging. They don’t ask, "Where is the money donors are pledging? Where are the boots on the ground?"

Response to the World Health Organization's Ebola Road Map
August 28, 2014
Statement from MSF Director of Operations Brice de le Vingne.

“The WHO road map is welcome, but it should not give a false sense of hope. A plan needs to be acted upon. Huge questions remain about who will implement the elements in the plan. Who has the correct training for the variety of tasks that are detailed? How long will it take to train organizations to set up and run an Ebola management center? How long before any new centers become operational? Who will undertake the vitally important health education, contact tracing, and safe burials in the affected communities?

We have learned an uncomfortable lesson over the past six months: none of the organizations in the most affected countries—the UN, WHO, local governments, NGOs (including MSF)—currently have the proper set-up to respond at the scale necessary to make a serious impact on the spread of the outbreak. For some, the limits are due to capacity constraints—the simple inability to do more—and others may need to be encouraged to demonstrate more willingness to push the boundaries and scale up effective activities at a meaningful scale.

We cannot escape the need to rapidly and effectively contain this epidemic and provide the necessary care to patients, their families, and affected communities. As an international public health emergency, states with the capacity to help have the responsibility to mobilize resources to the affected countries, rather than watching from the sidelines with a naive hope that the situation will improve.”

S&F for the info.

And it keeps getting worse... and worse... I honestly don't see how the countries affected will recover from this.

a reply to: soficrow

Yeah, have you noticed the spikes and valleys in reported cases and deaths? This virus seems to have some type of replicative delay so that the cases come in waves with each wave leading to more infections than the last. That is probably not a good sign. It could mean that when medical teams think they've finally gotten a region under control, they are actually just in a dormant period leading up to another rush of new cases. It also suggests that we should be mapping the number of cases by the peaks of those rushes instead of the averages like we have been, and that means the growth rate is much higher than they are currently projecting.

a reply to: soficrow
S&F. Thanks for compiling this info.
Is this incubation period different from the ones in previous outbreaks? Or did previous outbreaks burn out before they could spread?

a reply to: soficrow

Really scary stuff, how this is not headline news is beyond me.

We should be helping these countries by setting up triage camps. The West throw all their money on fighting wars and yet are doing so little to contain this very serious threat to humanity.

originally posted by: flammadraco
a reply to: soficrow

Really scary stuff, how this is not headline news is beyond me.

We should be helping these countries by setting up triage camps. The West throw all their money on fighting wars and yet are doing so little to contain this very serious threat to humanity.

Well the UK has sent its military over it reported yesterday to seira leone.

Makes sence as we have close ties to that country.

USA should take Liberia for the same reason and France Guinea.

Lets hope 21 days is the exception and not the rule.

a reply to: crazyewok

It almost seems like a token gesture.
British military sent to tackle West Africa

The UK has announced it will build a centre with 50 beds for people in Sierra Leone and 12 beds for healthcare workers who become ill. The proposed site will be surveyed this week, with the healthcare worker section of the facility scheduled to be running within eight weeks.

But i have not looked up what every other country is doing yet.


Anyone know what the other African country's are contributing?

I know it sounds harsh -- but they should just shut down ALL forms of traffic to/from the countries with confirmed cases for a few months.

People around here are constantly talking about the elite wanting the world's population to lessen by the billions, most likely beginning with the poorest people/countries first. If that idea is true, then why would the US or anyone of means rush to 'save' the rest? It seems to me the plan is falling into place perfectly. There very well may be a vaccine for the virus that only the few have and screw everyone else.

If it hits the US with any vigor or the state where I live, I have the capability to and will cut off all physical contact with everyone for at least 6 months to a year or longer if necessary. Thankfully, I live pretty rural and can be self sufficient. It would be nice if a whole town would quarantine itself but I don't see that happening in any town, ever. The sheeple are too needy and dependent on outside sources.

originally posted by: MystikMushroom
I know it sounds harsh -- but they should just shut down ALL forms of traffic to/from the countries with confirmed cases for a few months.

Harsh, yes... but smart too. First we need to keep it contained so that we can focus on recovery.

a reply to: MystikMushroom

I used to think that to and argued the case with soficrow.
But now i can see the logic that it will not work.
Because it says to any other country's that become infected that they should say nothing or the same thing will happen to them.
And you will end up with a much bigger hidden problem that you could have done something about quick if you knew.

originally posted by: drwill
a reply to: soficrow
S&F. Thanks for compiling this info.
Is this incubation period different from the ones in previous outbreaks? Or did previous outbreaks burn out before they could spread?

Previous outbreaks burned out before spreading geographically. The last infection rate reported for this epidemic was 34.8 days for doubling - now it's doubling in 21 days. Big jump.

originally posted by: flammadraco
a reply to: soficrow

Really scary stuff, how this is not headline news is beyond me.

We should be helping these countries by setting up triage camps. The West throw all their money on fighting wars and yet are doing so little to contain this very serious threat to humanity.

Hopefully, the fact that this Ebola epidemic is threatening oil production and the global oil supply will light a few fires.



ETA PS. S&

a reply to: soficrow
This is hair-raising. The changes in the incubation period seem darn fast. It begs the question: what other changes have occurred? What kind of genetic gymnastics will the virus do when flu season hits?

a reply to: soficrow

Hopefully, the fact that this Ebola epidemic is threatening oil production and the global oil supply will light a few fires.

That just burns me up...allthough I feel your probably correct about that... grrrr I feel so sad for the people going through this mess right now.

leolady

originally posted by: drwill
a reply to: soficrow
This is hair-raising. The changes in the incubation period seem darn fast. It begs the question: what other changes have occurred? What kind of genetic gymnastics will the virus do when flu season hits?

It does raise a few questions, doesn't it? But the "experts" assure us that it's still the same 'ol Ebola. Except for the researchers of course - they admit they do not have enough data to know exactly what effect any of the 400 mutations have, and certainly not the 50 latest ones that accumulated over the past 8 months exclusively human-to-human transmission.

Pretty much everyone trying to speak as some kind of authority in virology has been saying that Ebola is not going airborne.

I think if it spills over the borders to neighboring countries with masses of people getting infected at once rather then just a small pocket of people who came in contact with someone, there will be no denying that this is spreading either more efficiently they they let on, or is traveling in the air long distances.

a reply to: soficrow

are they saying it isn't airborne? wow

had a dream last night that woke me up startled. I was breathing in and a black bat went into my lungs.

how scarey.

a reply to: 1mpl3m3nt

The thing is are they saying it based on previous outbreaks or on the study of this one?

Because i have read it is not airborne multiple times by numerous doctors and experts like some sort of mantra but 99 percent of them have not even seen a ebola victim let alone treated one it has been that rare up till now.
Are they just repeating what they have been told or read in medical text books?

While i am not saying it is airborne i am saying i do not put much faith in someone who is just parroting what they have read or been told.