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originally posted by: theantediluvian
a reply to: SonOfTheLawOfOne
If you haven't noticed, they call it "climate change" now for a reason... because the anthropogenic part has fallen apart. Now it's just "climate change", and since the planet has warmed more in some places, and cooled more in others, they can't really call it "global warming" anymore, because it's not just warming by itself.
This is not correct.
Frank Luntz was behind the change in terminology during the Bush administration. From The Guardian:
The phrase "global warming" should be abandoned in favour of "climate change", Mr Luntz says, and the party should describe its policies as "conservationist" instead of "environmentalist", because "most people" think environmentalists are "extremists" who indulge in "some pretty bizarre behaviour... that turns off many voters".
Words such as "common sense" should be used, with pro-business arguments avoided wherever possible.
The environment, the memo says, "is probably the single issue on which Republicans in general - and President Bush in particular - are most vulnerable".
This is at best misleading. Climate models are always approximations, not falsifiable experiments. Climate is an enormously complex system and highly susceptible to short term variations and given the level of noise, ten years is an absurdly short period of time for assessing the utility of the models.
The shortcomings of models doesn't mean that CO2 levels aren't increasing steadily (who is refuting this?), that human activity isn't responsible for this increase or that the long-term result won't be warming of the planet.
I encourage you and the OP to read what Mr. Pielke has said about global warming himself. Here are some of the take home points from a report he delivered to the US House of Representatives Committee on Government Reform in 2006 (PDF here):
1. Human-caused climate change is real and requires attention by policy makers to
both mitigation and adaptation – but there is no quick fix; the issue will be with us
for decades and longer.
....
Interesting that he's the very first source cited to kick off this denial thread and yet... dun dun dun... "human-caused climate change is real and requires attention"
originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: Lanisius
Who in their right mind would ignore actual science and listen to denial and obfuscation of facts by organizations funded by energy (oil) companies?
Who in their right mind would fall for government(s) financially backing scientists that advocate AGW and use data collected via computer modeling as proof?
originally posted by: SonOfTheLawOfOne
There is no proof that human activity is responsible for the increase in CO2. Until we can identify every CO2 source, every sink, accurately measure absorption and emission and sequestrations, etc, it remains disproven and speculative. As you mentioned yourself, it's too complex to model it correctly, so you can't reliably base ANY decisions on the models UNTIL they are more correlated to OBSERVATION and MEASUREMENTS, which it is NOT.
It's very easy to MAKE the model show temperature sensitivity to CO2 changes, which is why some may THINK that CO2 will lead to increased warming.... even though the entire historical record (with exception of 1-2 isolated events) shows that temperature has always risen before CO2.
Frank Luntz is a nobody, and the Guardian giving him credit for changing a globally accepted term is quite the stretch, at best.
If you haven't noticed, they call it "climate change" now for a reason... because the anthropogenic part has fallen apart. Now it's just "climate change", and since the planet has warmed more in some places, and cooled more in others, they can't really call it "global warming" anymore, because it's not just warming by itself.
Why do you think there are packaged software applications that are used by elementary school kids to model chemical and physical reactions? Because the variables are well understood, reliable and produce repeatable results.
This is typical behavior for someone who can't debate the merits of the subject matter and has to resort to attacking the individual contributors character.
There is no proof that human activity is responsible for the increase in CO2. Until we can identify every CO2 source, every sink, accurately measure absorption and emission and sequestrations, etc, it remains disproven and speculative. As you mentioned yourself, it's too complex to model it correctly, so you can't reliably base ANY decisions on the models UNTIL they are more correlated to OBSERVATION and MEASUREMENTS, which it is NOT.
It's the same reason people still bring an umbrella to work, even though the forecast says "slight" chance of rain. If the weather could be accurately predicted, so could the climate.
It's very easy to MAKE the model show temperature sensitivity to CO2 changes, which is why some may THINK that CO2 will lead to increased warming.... even though the entire historical record (with exception of 1-2 isolated events) shows that temperature has always risen before CO2.
originally posted by: yorkshirelad
originally posted by: SonOfTheLawOfOne
There is no proof that human activity is responsible for the increase in CO2. Until we can identify every CO2 source, every sink, accurately measure absorption and emission and sequestrations, etc, it remains disproven and speculative. As you mentioned yourself, it's too complex to model it correctly, so you can't reliably base ANY decisions on the models UNTIL they are more correlated to OBSERVATION and MEASUREMENTS, which it is NOT.
WRONG, please read the relevant information about carbon isotopes. The carbon cycle is why we can date organic material ie the amount of c14 decreases with age. Fossil fuels when burnt produce CO2 with no c14. The measurement of the various amounts of isotopes in CO2 allows us to determine the source of the CO2:
Man made due to fossil fuel burning
It's very easy to MAKE the model show temperature sensitivity to CO2 changes, which is why some may THINK that CO2 will lead to increased warming.... even though the entire historical record (with exception of 1-2 isolated events) shows that temperature has always risen before CO2.
True but fails to understand the difference between a trigger and a feedback mechanism. In the past CO2 rises were not a trigger but simply due to feedback hence the lag. Man in his infinite wisdom has created a situation where CO2 is a trigger.....we will be well screwed once the CO2 feedback kicks in.
So yet again a nice long AGW reply which fails miserably to understand some basics of climate science.
Don't forget about zoology......although most skeptics ignore that completely!
originally posted by: theantediluvian
a reply to: SonOfTheLawOfOne
It's very easy to MAKE the model show temperature sensitivity to CO2 changes, which is why some may THINK that CO2 will lead to increased warming.... even though the entire historical record (with exception of 1-2 isolated events) shows that temperature has always risen before CO2.
I didn't mean to let this slide by without comment. First I'd like to point out for all of your railing against the use of proxies (I mean, PROXIES), you're quick to accept them when you feel it's expedient because obviously, you didn't hop into your time machine and journey into the past to take MEASUREMENTS and make OBSERVATIONS.
There's a couple of reasonable (and not mutually exclusive) explanations for the often cited criticism that CO2 lags temperature historically.
1. CO2 increases were in fact, not lagging temperature increases at all and the correlation of proxy data from different parts of the world (unintentionally or by cherry picking) can be used to construct cool graphs that show whatever you want.
2. Orbital forcing led to a release of CO2 from the oceans kick-starting a positive feedback loop. That is, that the oceans warmed up, CO2 was released, CO2 created additional warming (radiative forcing) which increased ocean temperatures and released more CO2 into the atmosphere and so on.
You're pretty smug for somebody who doesn't appear to understand the difference between deterministic and stochastic modeling or discrete and continuous data.
You don't seem to understand the difference between climate and weather.
Climate is the weather in a location averaged over a long period of time.
I'm Kettle, nice to meet you Pot.
Of course, there will be mistakes and changes along the way... but to believe that we should make life-changing decisions on a hunch or a probability that has inaccurate data supporting it is not "reasonable".
We receive numerous requests for these station data (not just monthly temperature averages, but precipitation totals and pressure averages as well). Requests come from a variety of sources, often for an individual station or all the stations in a region or a country. Sometimes these come because the data cannot be obtained locally or the requester does not have the resources to pay for what some NMSs charge for the data. These data are not ours to provide without the full permission of the relevant NMSs, organizations and scientists.
“I know that most men, including those at ease with problems of the greatest complexity, can seldom accept even the simplest and most obvious truth if it be such as would oblige them to admit the falsity of conclusions which they have delighted in explaining to colleagues, which they have proudly taught to others, and which they have woven, thread by thread, into the fabric of their lives.”
-Tolstoy
If AGW wasn't real and never occurred we wouldn't have 97% of scientific papers saying it.
“The security provided by a long-held belief system, even when poorly founded, is a strong impediment to progress. General acceptance of a practice becomes the proof of its validity, though it lacks all other merit.”
- Dr. B. Lown, invented defibrillator