Ebola Mutating: Sustained H2H Transmission

a reply to: missvicky

Thanks for clarifying!

a reply to: ATF1886

Thanks. ...fyi - I'm a she. And I quite liked joho99's words:

Fear is a natural reaction but knowledge is a shield.
learn as much as you can and you will do fine.

originally posted by: missvicky
a reply to: soficrow

I believe it was used as an external body wash to prevent infection in the Middle Ages but using it as a tonic is interesting.

I have to agree with this four thieves suggestion....

Garlic, onions, thyme and other herbs ALL have anti viral / bacterial properties.......

Maybe a business opportunity for a tonic or 'wash'........hmmmmm I've got myself thinking about this....

PDUK

a reply to: missvicky

for what it is worth....Matt Laur interviewed the dr that survived....I tried to pay close attention...he said he always wore total protection around the patients...he3 didn't get it in the clinic...he thinks he got it when he put his arm around one of the ebola patients' relatives....I have a bad cold and fell asleep after that part.

Something weird going on. The genetic analysis cited in the OP showed 100% human-to-human transmission following the index case. Now, H2H is being dismissed by some, and the focus is shifting back to animal-to-human. I wonder why.

Oxford study predicts 15 more countries are at risk of Ebola exposure

Until this year's epidemic, Ebola did not exist in West Africa. Now with nearly 2,300 people dead from the virus, mostly in Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone, scientists still don't fully understand how Ebola arrived from Central Africa, where outbreaks of this strain of the virus had occurred in the past.

A new model by Oxford University, published in the journal eLife, takes a look at the most likely explanation -- that Ebola's animal reservoir, fruit bats, could spread the disease in the animal kingdom and to humans through the dense forest that spans 22 countries.

....consuming cooked bush meat is unlikely to spread the virus, hunting or preparing raw meat for consumption increases the likelihood that an infection might occur.

....According to the Oxford prediction, these countries are at risk of animal-to-human transmission of Ebola by virtue of their geography: Nigeria, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Ghana, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Angola, Togo, United Republic of Tanzania, Ethiopia, Mozambique, Burundi, Equatorial Guinea, Madagascar and Malawi.

....."Our map shows the likely ‘reservoir’ of Ebola virus in animal populations, and this is larger than has been previously appreciated," said the study's author Nick Golding, a researcher at Oxford University’s Department of Zoology. "This does not mean that transmission to humans is inevitable in these areas; only that all the environmental and epidemiological conditions suitable for an outbreak occur there.’"

a reply to: soficrow

A point.

How long have those bats lived within the indicated area?

How many places has ebola shown up?

I've seen the 'watch out for bushmeat' schtick lately and have been wondering about that in the face of the extended H2H transmission, are they pulling a 'look over there?'

a reply to: jadedANDcynical

Looks like a switch and ditch to me too. Guess the boys from Oxford didn't see this map showing the fruit bat carrier's range (outlined by the dotted magenta line).

Ebola Virus: 'Biological war' in Liberia

just read this article ...

With warnings from officials that the Ebola virus is "spreading like wildfire" in Liberia, Sarah Crowe, who works for the UN children's agency (Unicef), describes her week on the Ebola front line:

Flights into disaster zones are usually full of aid workers and journalists. Not this time.

The plane was one of the first in after some 10 airlines stopped flying to Liberia because of Ebola, and still it was empty.

So far 169 Liberian health care workers have been affected by Ebola and 80 have died - a massive blow to a fragile health system.

I should expand upon this and add my own opinion... just can't find the words. The pictures and reports coming through are heart breaking.

a reply to: Thurisaz

I read that too - My first thought was, "Good Grief! You can't apply military strategies to biological situations."

Might do a thread on it. May decide not to waste my time.

a reply to: soficrow

in Liberia they only have a small population 4.4 million. The way it is spreading and the lack of infrastructure is a worry.

I know this is the mutating thread but wasn't sure where to post this. Maybe just do a 'The Ebola Thread' ?

there is so much going on... hard to keep up with it and know where to put updates.

originally posted by: Thurisaz
a reply to: soficrow

in Liberia they only have a small population 4.4 million. The way it is spreading and the lack of infrastructure is a worry.

I know this is the mutating thread but wasn't sure where to post this. Maybe just do a 'The Ebola Thread' ?

there is so much going on... hard to keep up with it and know where to put updates.

The WHOLE situation is a worry - no African country has anywhere approaching adequate infrastructure, including Nigeria. And we don't either, for a virulent pandemic. Yes, we could handle a few cases and keep them contained, but 1000's per day? No.

....Problem with 'one thread' - I started the first one back in March, and it was ignored by most. Once I started posting new threads with new headlines, people paid attention - and then ran off with the ideology that military strategies apply to biology. [They don't.]

lol

The question, "What's happening?" always evolves to "What can be done?" to "What should be done?" and "How can/should we respond?" ....Hence the divergence of threads, many of which are started simply to push a particular agenda (notably, the military defence fortress idea).

a reply to: soficrow
I myself think multiple threads are necessary for this unprecedented and disturbing event. The more awareness, the better, right? However, I know the work that goes into them, and I am deeply grateful for your research and for not giving up. I don't think I'm alone in feeling this gratitude.

I also agree with you that the Western world will be caught with its pants down if Ebola continues to adapt (obviously the virus hasn't stayed in its filo rut).

a reply to: drwill

...One thing people seem to missing is that the more this spreads human-to-human, and the longer the epidemic lasts - the more likely it is that Ebola will evolve to be airborne - and spread globally.

Some think we can quarantine Africa, or West Africa - but medical history shows that quarantine doesn't work. So if we don't stop it there, soon, and prevent it from evolving - we'll all have to deal with the consequences.

Ebola could get worse by the time it reaches the US in earnest. It could evolve into a more deadly and contagious from.

The form of Ebola that is most successful is the from that will reproduce the most.

a reply to: Semicollegiate

it sure could get worse, just how much worse?

An MSF doctor working in Africa answers that question directly:

[–]Schrodingers_Nachos 10 points an hour ago
Is there an end in sight?
permalink
[–]ELasry[S] 22 points an hour ago
Not if the response is not substantially upscaled

I work for Doctors Without Borders - ask me anything about Ebola.

originally posted by: jadedANDcynical
a reply to: Semicollegiate

it sure could get worse, just how much worse?

An MSF doctor working in Africa answers that question directly:

[–]Schrodingers_Nachos 10 points an hour ago
Is there an end in sight?
permalink
[–]ELasry[S] 22 points an hour ago
Not if the response is not substantially upscaled

I work for Doctors Without Borders - ask me anything about Ebola.

It could also get better. Ebola could mutate into a something not deadly and thereby make the maximum amount of copies of itself-- the height of success for a virus. DNA wants to reproduce more than anything else.

Ebola could find the perfect match of transmission from person to person and lethality to make it the worst disease ever. Bad luck, not its intention.

Mutation itself is random. After a mutation, the interaction of the mutation with the world determines whether it will continue or burnout.

Ebola is essentially DNA. It "wants" to make copies of itself. It "wants" to be more contagious. Lethality is a side effect.

Changes Ebola could make include
faster reproduction in an infected person
more durability when outside of host
more animals to survive inside of
attacking the brain to make people more wild and contagious

Anything that makes Ebola more contagious is the most likely mutation to be passed on.

a reply to: Semicollegiate

All true - but the risk of doing nothing -or not enough- is way too high.

The death toll has risen to more than 2,400 people out of 4,784 cases, WHO director general Margaret Chan told reporters at the UN health agency’s headquarters in in Geneva on Friday, noting the figures could be an underestimate.

….Michael Osterholm is the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. .…raised a possibility that he said virologists are loath to discuss openly but consider behind closed doors: the prospect that the Ebola virus could mutate to become transmissible through the air.

….The key to containing the outbreak, Osterholm stressed, is to beef up efforts to stop the spread of the virus.

…."If we wait for vaccines and new drugs to arrive to end the Ebola epidemic, instead of taking major action now, we risk the disease's reaching from West Africa to our own backyards,"….

…."Ebola cannot be ignored in the hope it will burn itself out," Peter Piot, one of the scientists who first identified the Ebola virus in 1976, and his colleague Adam Kucharski, Piot, now director of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said in their editorial.

originally posted by: soficrow
a reply to: Semicollegiate

All true - but the risk of doing nothing -or not enough- is way too high.

The death toll has risen to more than 2,400 people out of 4,784 cases, WHO director general Margaret Chan told reporters at the UN health agency’s headquarters in in Geneva on Friday, noting the figures could be an underestimate.

….Michael Osterholm is the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. .…raised a possibility that he said virologists are loath to discuss openly but consider behind closed doors: the prospect that the Ebola virus could mutate to become transmissible through the air.

….The key to containing the outbreak, Osterholm stressed, is to beef up efforts to stop the spread of the virus.

…."If we wait for vaccines and new drugs to arrive to end the Ebola epidemic, instead of taking major action now, we risk the disease's reaching from West Africa to our own backyards,"….

…."Ebola cannot be ignored in the hope it will burn itself out," Peter Piot, one of the scientists who first identified the Ebola virus in 1976, and his colleague Adam Kucharski, Piot, now director of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said in their editorial.

I remember your idea about how Ebola was planted by bad businesses to clear out the landscape of West Africans, or at least make the land easier to buy.

I always think that an epidemic is a nearly perfect crisis for setting up maximal governmental power. They do have a conflict of interest in stopping the out break as fast as possible. The longer and more horrible it is, the more money and power some governmental or non-governmental organization will get.

originally posted by: Semicollegiate

originally posted by: soficrow
a reply to: Semicollegiate

All true - but the risk of doing nothing -or not enough- is way too high.

The death toll has risen to more than 2,400 people out of 4,784 cases, WHO director general Margaret Chan told reporters at the UN health agency’s headquarters in in Geneva on Friday, noting the figures could be an underestimate.

….Michael Osterholm is the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. .…raised a possibility that he said virologists are loath to discuss openly but consider behind closed doors: the prospect that the Ebola virus could mutate to become transmissible through the air.

….The key to containing the outbreak, Osterholm stressed, is to beef up efforts to stop the spread of the virus.

…."If we wait for vaccines and new drugs to arrive to end the Ebola epidemic, instead of taking major action now, we risk the disease's reaching from West Africa to our own backyards,"….

…."Ebola cannot be ignored in the hope it will burn itself out," Peter Piot, one of the scientists who first identified the Ebola virus in 1976, and his colleague Adam Kucharski, Piot, now director of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said in their editorial.

I remember your idea about how Ebola was planted by bad businesses to clear out the landscape of West Africans, or at least make the land easier to buy.

I always think that an epidemic is a nearly perfect crisis for setting up maximal governmental power. They do have a conflict of interest in stopping the out break as fast as possible. The longer and more horrible it is, the more money and power some governmental or non-governmental organization will get.

lol. I have a lot of ideas - and even more questions.

EBOLA: Clearing the Path for US Corporate Investments in Africa?

What are US Biological Warfare Researchers Doing in the Ebola Zone?





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Hate to say it, but I have a feeling that a lot of things will look different once Ebola finishes its scourge.

link for personal hope