Ebola: Facts, Opinions, and Speculations.

Ok, looking further I have found the more recent research (thus adding support to the "not a new strain" camp) that shows that this outbreak may indeed be the same strain as the original Zaire EBOV:

This approach indicates that the outbreak in Guinea is likely caused by a Zaire ebolavirus lineage that has spread from Central Africa into Guinea and West Africa in recent decades, and does not represent the emergence of a divergent and endemic virus.

As the GP sequences show, without more diverse sequences, especially those from the animal reservoir, it is difficult to narrow down the estimates of when and through what means the Central African EBOV lineage has been introduced into West Africa.

And why would seem so different?

The branch leading to the Guinea outbreak is long, not because it is a divergent lineage but because it is the most recently sampled so has had the most time to evolve.

Phylogenetic Analysis of Guinea 2014 EBOV Ebolavirus Outbreak

So since the virus has had more time to evolve (it has drifted 3% from its original sequencing), it's had more time to become more efficient a survival.



Btw, zebra, the above linked paper is a reanalysis of the NEJM data and shows how they derived their results of that data.

a reply to: ikonoklast

Your opinion seems to be arguing:

"People are over reacting to this situation and hyping it up." And:
Hype and over reaction = Undue fear and panic
Undue fear and panic = Doom and gloom speculation
Doom and gloom speculation = No help
No help = Worsening serious situation
Worsening serious situation = Bad
Therefore:
Hype and over reaction = Bad

Your logic is poor.

Where in the hell do you get that "Doom and gloom speculation = No help"??? You made a logical leap the size of the Grand Canyon to get to that one.

Doom and gloom speculation has only one purpose at that is to try to scare the public. The WHO, CDC, MSF...they don't care about the baseless doom and gloom speculation going on...I'm sure they hate it just as much as I do because it takes away from the actual situation and the real problems that need to be solved.

The last thing that is needed in a situation like this is fear and panic. Most of the baseless speculation going on in these threads, which include graphs made with horrible mathematical assumptions, only serve the purpose to try to scare people. I don't know why people get off on trying to scare people, but some people sure do. The baseless speculation is also flooding these threads with just absolute false information, which should be considered a moral crime.

So sorry, but your logic is horrible and your lame attempt to say I contradicted myself is equally horrible.

One other thing I want to add because I see this getting thrown around a lot:

Just because people have questions and concerns does not mean they are blowing this out of proportion or into doom porn. It's better to be prepared than caught unaware isn't it?

a reply to: jadedANDcynical

So since the virus has had more time to evolve (it has drifted 3% from its original sequencing), it's had more time to become more efficient a survival.

Doesn't necessarily mean it has become a more efficient at survival...not all mutations are "good".

The 3% difference could mean nothing at all, or it could be beneficial to those infected, or it could be detrimental to those infected. It could be beneficial to the survival of the virus or it could make it weaker.

But you can't say that it has a 3% difference so now it is better.

a reply to: VashKonnor

I mean, it's really scary if you think that was in fact the doctor with Ebola.

I just don't get what makes it really scary.

The patient was in a suit, the transporters were in suits, and they reportedly were following procedures.

What makes it scary?

a reply to: loam

Can we speculate on this transport issue? I popped over from the other thread. I noticed NavyDoc and others mention that the way Europe handled this transport is on par with the way they were trained to handle these situations and we all agree it appears it was far better executed. So, do we think that:

1. The US transports of Brantley and Whitebol were just handled really poorly, with poor precautions taken

OR

2. The US transports we SAW of Brantley and Whitebol were just for "show" and they are actually elsewhere?

Hoping this level of speculation is acceptable in the thread, I found it interesting we had some participants remark on Europe's handling of this being how one would be "typically trained"... obviously not how it was handled that we saw.

a reply to: FlyersFan

Nearly useless sums it up pretty well. This is trusting in little more than luck.

It doesn't do anything to curb travel by people who may not be symptomatic and contagious for up to another 3 weeks.

And if someone is noticed to be symptomatic on a plane, they potentially have already had close contact (or their 'droplets' have) with a lot of people, from passengers to baggage handlers and ticket agents. The passengers are going all over the place, and airline employees may later have close contact with a lot of such people when they first become contagious before it's known they have Ebola.

a reply to: NEB0168

My opinion is that this was for show, but only because I'd like to believe we in the US are more competent than that.

If I'm right, then the reason they got this one wrong was because the real experts were busy dealing with the actual transport(s),

originally posted by: kruphix
a reply to: VashKonnor

I mean, it's really scary if you think that was in fact the doctor with Ebola.

I just don't get what makes it really scary.

The patient was in a suit, the transporters were in suits, and they reportedly were following procedures.

What makes it scary?

A lot of members in this thread and others can verify that my stance on this whole issue has been to tone down the significance of this outbreak. I do think this is somewhat hyped to the extreme.

But I base that reasoning on the fact that myself, like the experts on biological organisms in these forums, trust that institutions like CDC to do their job.

The first opportunity that I had to view that transport, I wasn't worried. I assumed they had taken the necessary precautions. But it's clear now that they didn't. It doesn't matter if the current pathogen can't spread that far or if the patient is in a suit. It's clearly not enough, or bad practice to have that much slack.

Let's put things into perspective:

In Spain the guys at the base who operate the cargo lifts to take out stuff from planes, were using complete bio suits with tape around their wrists and face masks. They weren't near the patient, they weren't in direct contact. But they still used them, they have the suits for a reason.

In the US they used a common ambulance, no security escort and the guy was using a suit that wasn't even properly isolated, he was just wearing it loosely. Along with the absence of other security measures, it's clear they took too many risks, if in fact that was the infected doctor.

I'm not saying there is an immediate danger, from what we know, there was no way Ebola would get out in the US. But looking back, it was unnecessary risk, and to me personally, when it's the authorities taking unnecessary risks, it's scary.

a reply to: loam

I'm inclined to agree, and to go one step further then, I'm interested in opinions on the actual location of both Brantley and Whitebol. It is probably most LIKELY that they are at Emory. I would assume though, that even if they were transported to Emory and NOT as part of the "transport" we saw, SOMEONE still would have seen the real deal. This is Atlanta, not rural Montana in the dead of night.

However we have seen USAMRIID thrown out as well. So then theoretically, they would have been transported from the Maine stop to that location?

I watched this Nova/Ebola video that was posted pages back (excellent!) on another Ebola thread. I urge everyone to view it. What is remarkable about this is that the doctors went ahead and gave blood from someone who survived Ebola to someone dying from it and she survived. They did it with ten others and I think seven survived. It seems survivors of Ebola's blood greatly increases the survival rates. Of course this is not approved protocol and with all the red tape in North America is unlikely to even be possible - but - it makes sense and is worth pushing for in my opinion.

www.youtube.com...

Also - it is very normal for most people to feel 'scared' of the unknown. It is great for those of you who don't jump or flinch at potential catastrophes coming your/our way - but it is rather unkind to razz those people who do feel fear and admit it. Ebola 'is' scary. We all hope it gets under control - but the reality is it may well not get under control. Speculating the worst case scenario is not wishing for doom and gloom - it's a survival reaction to a potential (and deadly) threat. It's instinctual to survive, not die. Being scared is simply (and naturally) the flight reaction.

a reply to: VashKonnor

In Spain the guys at the base who operate the cargo lifts to take out stuff from planes, were using complete bio suits with tape around their wrists and face masks. They weren't near the patient, they weren't in direct contact. But they still used them, they have the suits for a reason.

And in Spain there were people with what looked like surgical masks on, nothing covering their eyes. It happens there, no big deal, you guys are cool with it. If that would have happened here, you guys would be flipping out.

In the US they used a common ambulance, no security escort and the guy was using a suit that wasn't even properly isolated, he was just wearing it loosely. Along with the absence of other security measures, it's clear they took too many risks, if in fact that was the infected doctor.

In Spain, it looked like a pretty common ambulance as well.

And how do you know they guy wasn't wearing his suit properly??? That is just nonsense, you don't know that, you can't know that unless you were there.


Tell me, what about the US transfer would have made it better? Just the little bubble transport thing the guy in Spain was in?

The way I see it, the US transfer used a sufficient amount of precautions for someone that has a disease that only spreads by fluid contact. The Spain transfer went above and beyond what was needed for someone who doesn't have an airborne highly contagious disease.

Bottom line, both transfers went down perfectly fine. In both cases, doesn't matter how many precautions you take...things can always go sideways. Example, if the Spain ambulance blows a tire, flips and the bubble the guy is in cracks or becomes open...all those precautions meant nothing. Same thing could have happened with the US transfer.

But to still talk about it at this time...multiple days after the successful transfer without incident, is just fear mongering.

a reply to: kruphix

The title of this thread includes speculation. Why are you so adverse to someone presenting an opinion that it seems that the Spanish handled it better? Is it an untrained opinion? Most likely. But how are you more qualified to discern what is better or worse than the person speculating that we did not handle this type of transfer to the same (better) level? If you do have some background that I missed, I apologize. It seems argumentative for the sake of it though.

a reply to: kruphix

And in Spain there were people with what looked like surgical masks on, nothing covering their eyes. It happens there, no big deal, you guys are cool with it. If that would have happened here, you guys would be flipping out.

Yes, but in Spain the patient was inside a negative pressure chamber (that means it doesn't let anything out due to pressure), with several layers of isolation. Apart from that, most doctors and staff around the patients were very protected, with different types of suits for different types of stages.

Also, I'm near Madrid. That's closer than Atlanta.

But for the sake of sounding like a smartypants, both patients (all 3 of them) were close to me. The US patient stopped at Azores, and the spanish priest went to Madrid.

"Game over man, game over!"

In Spain, it looked like a pretty common ambulance as well.

You mean apart from the 5 undercover cars, several police cars and multiple motorcycle escorts?

And how do you know they guy wasn't wearing his suit properly??? That is just nonsense, you don't know that, you can't know that unless you were there.

In some pictures you can see small gaps in his upper suit. Like I said, that's not the part that concerns me, it's just the overall attitude of them making those things in a manner that seems to be just so that people didn't freak out.

Proper protocol wasn't followed, and that's a fact.

the US transfer used a sufficient amount of precautions for someone that has a disease that only spreads by fluid contact. The Spain transfer went above and beyond what was needed for someone who doesn't have an airborne highly contagious disease.

True. However, the US transfer had protection layers so that the cameras could film a guy walking around with the very least protective gear. The only protective layers that we know were used were:

1- The suit (the same type of suit that doctors in Africa use, and that still got sick using them, including the doctor)
2- Drapes inside the ambulance.

That's it.

In Spain there is a detail that nobody seems to mention:

The priest is already at a very severe stage of the disease. It's almost like damage control and comfort treatment at this stage, and without trying to sound clever, it will almost be a miracle if the priest survives.

Considering the difference in stages between the two patients, the spanish case had a real danger of leaking some blood or other fluids.

But that's the point, isn't it? They made sure that even if the priest started vomiting, or bleeding out of control, he would still be contained. In the US, although the risk was much lower or non-existent, they didn't make the proper arrangements.

And they did have the time to do them.

Example, if the Spain ambulance blows a tire, flips and the bubble the guy is in cracks or becomes open...all those precautions meant nothing. Same thing could have happened with the US transfer.

But you know the difference?

In Spain if the ambulance would crash, there were already police escorts along with it, so all it took was them to set a safe perimeter around the ambulance, and I seriously doubt those transport chambers aren't a little more resistant than that.

In the US you even have moments where the ambulance stops at a red-light, and civilian cars almost rear-end it. And let's not even think about the US ambulance crashing and then civilians going to the rescue because no other authorities were following it.

But to still talk about it at this time...multiple days after the successful transfer without incident, is just fear mongering.

I agree. But I don't think anyone is saying something bad is going to happen because of it. It was just a bad situation that had some unnecessary risk.

You are correct. She's prepping the area which looks like a passenger jet. Wasn't Dr Brantly and Ms. Writebol flown home in a special ambulance jet with double layers a bubble within a bubble as it were?
Is the jet used to move the priest a regular passenger jet?'
Not that I think that would be an issue but there seems to be some kind of contest here about who did it better. reply to: MyMindIsMyOwn

Ebola hearings on cspan right now. Direct tv channel 348

originally posted by: AutumnWitch657
Is the jet used to move the priest a regular passenger jet?'

Not sure to be honest, but it looks more like a passenger jet than the air ambulance used for the Americans.

Not that I think that would be an issue but there seems to be some kind of contest here about who did it better.

Yes, there seems to be some discussion about it. Having watched the CNN coverage of Brantly and Writebol coming into Emory and then seeing the pictures of how the Spanish handled it, speaking purely as a layman, I am more comfortable with the precautions the Spanish took than that of the Americans in this situation. Having folks like Crazyewok and NavyDoc confirm that the methods the Spanish took are more in line with their training further makes me wonder just why the US seemed to be so lackadaisical about the whole thing after our media made sure to whip us all into a froth about it to begin with.

Discussion on Cspan including comment from director of CDC Dr Tom Frieden, Administrator for USAID, Bisa WIlliams, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State BOFA with the House of Foreign affairs, Subcommittee Africa and global health.

Live now.
www.c-span.org.../hearing-ebola-outbreak-africa&live

originally posted by: kruphix
a reply to: ikonoklast
Where in the hell do you get that "Doom and gloom speculation = No help"???

That came from your statement, "People enjoy talking about doom and gloom, but it does little to help a real serious situation." In retrospect, 'little help' would have more accurately summarized what you said.

a reply to: kruphix This strain has not previously been airborne, but the more people infect the greater opportunity for mutation and it could be airborne right now, so I would question that not being airborne is a fact when we simply don't know. The leader of WHO also said that this is going to get worse before it gets better and we haven't yet seen the "worse" yet so I don't think that "now" is when we will start to see it get contained. It will likely be a couple months in current state before it begins to be contained.