Ebola reported in Lagos, Nigeria, Megacity of 21 Million People

originally posted by: GogoVicMorrow
a reply to: soficrow

Likelihood of spreading through through any trade items other than monkeys or bats is probably not possible.

BTW I am not trying to be argumentative. I've just studied up on Ebola alot. It's just not a good spreader. Imagine if we were tracking a new flu outbreak in those areas of Africa. It's been 6 months, it would be worldwide and in every state by now.

It's certainly possible for Ebola to spread on trade items - Ebola can spread environmentally - it does not require a living host. You may have studied Ebola a lot, but you keep saying things like Ebola kills the s*** out of you really fast and doesn't have the chance to spread. ...That's clearly wrong (at least with "Guinea" Ebola) - the index case in Freetown lived at least 2 weeks before dying.

Ebola then spreads in the community through human-to-human transmission, with infection resulting from direct contact (through broken skin or mucous membranes) with the blood, secretions, organs or other bodily fluids of infected people, and indirect contact with environments contaminated with such fluids.

SURVIVAL OUTSIDE HOST: The virus can survive in liquid or dried material for a number of days (23). Infectivity is found to be stable at room temperature or at 4°C for several days, and indefinitely stable at -70°C (6, 20). Infectivity can be preserved by lyophilisation (freeze-drying).

originally posted by: mr-lizard
What are the chances of this being carried on aeroplanes across the world?

Are we grounding flights yet, otherwise this could become a nightmare.

Just travel "advisories", so far. Thing is that a person could drive a car that far, too-- once outside containment.

The problem with finding people infected with Ebola is you don't know who they are… until you find them. Finding them is a matter of culturing a swab or blood sample from a suspected host and that takes several days.

Like if your roommate gets sick and goes to the hospital and they are found to be carrying Ebola, now you become a suspect case. They are looking directly for you and then quarantining you to test you and see if you come down with it. After 21 days, they let you go.

Not everyone is tested that wants to go on a plain train or automobile… that would take way to much time.

So somebody with Ebola might be free to travel like this guy in Nigeria.

Like carrying a human pathogen nuke quietly festering inside you. You don't "set off alarms" at the airport.

About jet liners, they typically add disinfectant of some sort to their air supply filter system in flight to kill off any airborne stuff during the flight. Baggage handling and restaurants or bathrooms at the destination don't.

The book The Hot Zone by Richard Preston covers that aspect of transmission (very frighteningly).

a reply to: soficrow

Of course it requires a living host. It may survive outside of one for a brief period, but then it will die.

Also that one that lived for two weeks, how long of that was incubation and how long was that bed ridden deathly ill.
2 weeks before dying is not long and the fact it's harder to spread means no matter how much you personally want ot to be THE ONE it just doesn't have the capability in it's current form to be a wildfire pandemic.

If it spends a week incubating you aren't really spreading it very well, and then you spend the next week very sick then you aren't spreading it very well.

a reply to: GogoVicMorrow

Isn't it the worst outbreak in history?

a reply to: LDragonFire

Yes for Ebola. What I am saying is that in it's current, natural form, it is not capable of producing a pandemic.

It kills quickly meaning the person doesn't have a lot of time to spread it. It comes from an African reservoir (likely bats) and is carried generally by monkeys. Monkey human contact (or human contact with bats/guano) is usually what causes the patient zero. It generally incubates (2-21 days but most commonly 4-9) in a person for just a few days before making them very ill (meaning they don't go out and spread it around - and the generally don't live to spread it more).

So generally someone gets sick or a group gets sick (from eating together likely) then the doctors get it, and then the people who do the burial ritual with the infected body get sick. Eventually it kind've burns out.

It can live outside of the body for a few days (probably no more that 2 or 3 unless intentionally frozen for a sample).

So yes it's the biggest outbreak of ebola, but it's actually small for a virus. Hundreds of cases in three countries in around 6 months. If it were a fly, or stomach virus being tracked it would have probably circled the globe 3 times by now because it doesn't kill the majority of it's hosts and it doesn't lay you up in a bed.

originally posted by: soficrow

originally posted by: GogoVicMorrow
a reply to: soficrow

Likelihood of spreading through through any trade items other than monkeys or bats is probably not possible.

BTW I am not trying to be argumentative. I've just studied up on Ebola alot. It's just not a good spreader. Imagine if we were tracking a new flu outbreak in those areas of Africa. It's been 6 months, it would be worldwide and in every state by now.

It's certainly possible for Ebola to spread on trade items - Ebola can spread environmentally - it does not require a living host. You may have studied Ebola a lot, but you keep saying things like Ebola kills the s*** out of you really fast and doesn't have the chance to spread. ...That's clearly wrong (at least with "Guinea" Ebola) - the index case in Freetown lived at least 2 weeks before dying.

Ebola then spreads in the community through human-to-human transmission, with infection resulting from direct contact (through broken skin or mucous membranes) with the blood, secretions, organs or other bodily fluids of infected people, and indirect contact with environments contaminated with such fluids.

SURVIVAL OUTSIDE HOST: The virus can survive in liquid or dried material for a number of days (23). Infectivity is found to be stable at room temperature or at 4°C for several days, and indefinitely stable at -70°C (6, 20). Infectivity can be preserved by lyophilisation (freeze-drying).

You should clarify that the way the links you posted work made it appear that it could survive for 23 days when really that's just the note number. In reality it saying the virus can live in infected secretions or infected meat for a "number of days" whatever that means, not very scientific. We already knew that from people being infected by dead bodies, so I would say 1-4 days. Then it says it can survive several days at 39 degrees f. My guess is that is regarding bodies in a morgue and probably again 1-4. It's not much of a source so whose to say which is greater "a number of days" or "several days."

I am certain they are not talking about an infected person shipping items over seas though. They are talking bodies. The only trade items that might be a risk would be.. ebola infected monkeys, not material items touched by ebola hands or whatever you are suggesting.

And my statement about Ebola killing the s*** out of you is clearly not wrong, and you mean Ebola Zaire, because that's what the Ebola in Guinea is.

a reply to: GogoVicMorrow

...It's not much of a source...

I used two sources: The World health Organization (WHO) and Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) - which one are you saying is "not much of a source"?

Despite your self-proclaimed expertise, there are a lot of unknowns in play here - much of what is "known" about Ebola is proving irrelevant in this epidemic. In any event, the Ebola virus does NOT have to be in a host to remain infectious - contaminated environments can sequester the disease for spreading. Much evidence suggests it's a lot like prion diseases such as Mad Cow Disease and CWD in North America - and may be sequestered in warm moist soil, remaining infectious. Which is where Ebola's Transformer Protein may prove to be more important than you realize.

Ebola then spreads in the community through human-to-human transmission, with infection resulting from direct contact (through broken skin or mucous membranes) with the blood, secretions, organs or other bodily fluids of infected people, and indirect contact with environments contaminated with such fluids.

SURVIVAL OUTSIDE HOST: The virus can survive in liquid or dried material for a number of days (23). Infectivity is found to be stable at room temperature or at 4°C for several days, and indefinitely stable at -70°C (6, 20). Infectivity can be preserved by lyophilisation (freeze-drying).

geez, with this going on, vacationing overseas for an American is risky business, with diseases, radical Muslims, kidnappers, robbers, and hatred in general for Americans...Hawaii here I come

originally posted by: GogoVicMorrow
a reply to: soficrow

Of course it requires a living host.

Only to propagate, but not to survive. Go back to the research - and review the bits about environmental contamination.

Also that one that lived for two weeks, how long of that was incubation and how long was that bed ridden deathly ill.
2 weeks before dying is not long

Do you even bother to read anything? As stated - she was ill and hospitalized 2 weeks before she died. The incubation period ended before she was hospitalized.

....no matter how much you personally want ot to be THE ONE it just doesn't have the capability in it's current form to be a wildfire pandemic.

Duh. I am most interested in tracking the conflicting information, shifting stories, disinformation, deflection and general pure bs that's propagated. And making the point that even without a "wildfire pandemic" West Africa is in a helluva lot of trouble right now.

If it spends a week incubating you aren't really spreading it very well, and then you spend the next week very sick then you aren't spreading it very well.

As stated, documented and proved over and over - incubation can be up to 3 weeks - time til death after symptoms appear can be at least 3 weeks - and survivors semen can remain infectious up to 61 days after recovery.

originally posted by: mr-lizard
What are the chances of this being carried on aeroplanes across the world?

Are we grounding flights yet, otherwise this could become a nightmare.

I posted this earlier in the thread, it seems the experts don't feel it is a great threat to the rest of the world.

"

The major city affected by the Ebola outbreak is , Guinea, home to about a million people and an international airport. But it's not a central hub, like Hong Kong International Airport or Chicago O'Hare. "The volume of travel in the Conakry airport is low," Khan says. "Most of the flights are local. But 10 percent of the traffic goes to Paris." That would make Paris the likeliest place for Ebola to arrive. And it is a possibility. After a person is infected with Ebola, symptoms could appear within two days — or take up to 21 days, Khan says. So a person infected in Guinea could hop on a plane and bring Ebola to, say, France or another international destination.

Even if that happens, the odds of fellow passengers catching the virus are extremely low, says , Dr Mark Gendreau who specializes in aviation medicine at Lahey Medical Center in Peabody, Mass. Several cases support this claim. In 1996, a Gabon man with clear symptoms of Ebola boarded a plane to Johannesburg to seek medical treatment. He had a fever above 105 degrees Fahrenheit and signs of internal bleeding. The man eventually made it to a hospital in South Africa. He did not infect anyone during his flight or other travels,

Why? Unlike SARS, Ebola doesn't pass easily from person to person. "Transmission requires very close contact with bodily fluids, like blood or mucus," Gendreau says. "You need prolonged contact with somebody. "

www.npr.org...

Al Jazeera reporting a second case in Brazil !

While i don't think this is the big one... I am not clear it coudn't become so with an airbourne
mutation.

The longer an outbreak continues.. the more mutations take place.

a reply to: rigel4

With a mutation to airborne then I'm sure it would be.

originally posted by: rigel4

Al Jazeera reporting a second case in Brazil !

Really? Care to share a link? 'Cuz no such thing shows up on any search - Al Jazeera is totally responsible and simply would NOT disseminate such bs.

originally posted by: soficrow

originally posted by: rigel4

Al Jazeera reporting a second case in Brazil !

Really? Care to share a link? 'Cuz no such thing shows up on any search - Al Jazeera is totally responsible and simply would NOT disseminate such bs.

I was just up.. maybe i miss heard it.. if i did i apologize.

a reply to: DrHammondStoat

... it seems the experts don't feel it is a great threat to the rest of the world.

No - far too many people do not realize how scary it is that at least 35 of Sawyer's co-passengers who were definitely exposed and may be infected now are hiding in Lagos - a super densely populated international city with lots of daily international flights to everywhere. Go figure.

....Liberian Sawyer died of Ebola in Lagos, Nigeria after flying from Liberia and stopping in Lome, Togo and maybe Ghana too. The airline has NOT provided the Nigerian government with a passenger list so Sawyer's fellow passengers are NOT being monitored. 35 Nigerian co-passengers just disappeared into Lagos' streets when they heard they might be quarantined. The hospital where Sawyer was treated has been quarantined and shut down.

Why Ebola reaching Nigeria’s largest city is a whole new level of scary

……..last week’s developments could transform this outbreak from an unusually nasty regional epidemic to something much bigger. On Jul. 24, Nigerian authorities confirmed that a Liberian man, Patrick Sawyer, had collapsed in Lagos after flying there from the Liberian capital, Monrovia, and tested positive for Ebola; Sawyer died on the night of July 24-25.

This is alarming. So far, Ebola has been confined to Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia—war-torn and largely rural west African countries. But Lagos is different; not only is it Africa’s biggest city, with 21 million people. It’s also one of the world’s most densely populated. And perhaps scariest of all, it’s a center for international travel—meaning that if it’s not contained, the virus could easily go global. …

……Nigeria’s health minister says authorities are currently trying to track down an unspecified number of the 100 or so other passengers on the flight.

This might be tricky. The 35 Nigerian co-passengers took flight once word got out that the health ministry was supposed to have quarantined them, prompting the federal government to launch a manhunt to track them down, reports Sunday Newswatch, a Nigerian newspaper, citing a federal security agent. ...

Given (Ebola's) deadly efficiency, the fact that at least 35 people who might have been exposed are at large in Lagos—to say nothing of the other passengers arriving from infected areas of West Africa—is disquieting as well. Confined by geography, the built-up areas of metropolitan Lagos now have more than 20,000 people per square kilometer (53,000 per square mile)—about the same urban density as Dhaka or Mumbai. It has among the highest prevalence rates of open defecation of all major African cities, as well as some of Africa’s lousiest healthcare infrastructure.

The Nigerian city of Lagos shut and quarantined a hospital on Monday where a Liberian man died of the Ebola virus…

…."The private hospital was demobilised (evacuated) and the primary source of infection eliminated. The decontamination process in all the affected areas has commenced," Lagos state health commissioner Jide Idris told a news conference. He said the hospital would be closed for a week and the staff would be closely monitored.

…Authorities were monitoring 59 people who were in contact with Sawyer, including airport contacts, the Lagos state health ministry said, but it said the airline had yet to provide a passenger list for the flights Sawyer used.

According to this they still have yet to track the other passengers down:

According to Vanguard,he said the contacts did not include those he might have been with on his flight to Nigeria on July 20, as the airline had yet to release the passenger manifest for investigation.

“The airline manifest has not been provided by the airline as at the time of this report and therefore, the precise number of passenger contacts is yet to be ascertained, especially as two flights were involved (Monrovia-Lome and Lome-Lagos).”

The commissioner urged Nigerians not to entertain fears about Sawyer`s case as the state and Federal Governments were doing everything possible to prevent any risk to the country.

Ebola Virus-Lagos State on the look out for those who boarded same flight with dead victim

While it doesn't seem to spread readily(as yet), it is certainly cause for concern.

originally posted by: soficrow
a reply to: DrHammondStoat

... it seems the experts don't feel it is a great threat to the rest of the world.

No - far too many people do not realize how scary it is that at least 35 of Sawyer's co-passengers who were definitely exposed and may be infected now are hiding in Lagos - a super densely populated international city with lots of daily international flights to everywhere. Go figure.

....Liberian Sawyer died of Ebola in Lagos, Nigeria after flying from Liberia and stopping in Lome, Togo and maybe Ghana too. The airline has NOT provided the Nigerian government with a passenger list so Sawyer's fellow passengers are NOT being monitored. 35 Nigerian co-passengers just disappeared into Lagos' streets when they heard they might be quarantined. The hospital where Sawyer was treated has been quarantined and shut down.

........

Sorry but you can't say the passengers were definitely exposed can you? He can't have left fluids on every bit of the plane. If people have boarded planes before with ebola and infected not one single person I think that tells us something.

On another note, here's some good old scare mongering from the UK.

Is the world's deadliest disease in its way to Britain? Fears rise as the biggest ever outbreak of the Ebola virus rampages into one of Africa's most sophisticated cities By Tom Leonard Published: 00:34, 29 July 2014 | Updated: 08:01, 29 July 2014 416 shares 79 View comments

There was nothing unusual-looking about the passenger arriving at Heathrow from Lagos. He was carrying one of the most deadly diseases known to mankind, but it wasn’t noticed by overstretched Nigerian airport officials before departure, nor by attendants on the flight, despite their special training to watch out for feverish passengers. Because Ebola is a disease that has an incubation period of between two and 21 days, it’s more than likely that the final line of defence — immigration staff at Heathrow — failed to notice anything untoward about him either. It wasn’t as if he was so unsteady or unwell that he couldn’t answer basic questions. And so he was waved through. Little did anyone realise that his initial flu-like symptoms — fever, headache, achy limbs, sore throat — would soon become something much, much worse.
Ebola, a disease which is fatal in 90 per cent of cases and for which there is no vaccine and no known cure, was now in Britain for the first time. It would soon be spreading across the country, killing almost everyone it touched.

Fortunately this is an imaginary situation, but an Ebola epidemic is the nightmare scenario which inspires Hollywood disaster movie writers and keeps public health officials awake at night. However, there is now widespread alarm among experts that it could actually happen, because the deadly disease has spread for the first time from remote jungle villages to claim its first victim in Lagos, one of Africa’s most sophisticated cities, with air links to major cities worldwide, including London.

Read more: www.dailymail.co.uk... -s-sophisticated-cities.html#ixzz38qKV127E Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

'Killing almost everyone it touched' ! ...

They are doing their best to sensationalise this and infer the disease would spread as easily and as quickly as flu, with just one person coming in from Africa causing 'everyone' to catch it! For anyone not familar with this publication they are reknowned for their xenophobia and anti-immigration stance. They love to demonise anyone or anything coming in from outside Europe!

- Also some info on Dr Kent Brantley's family, according to this report they are being monitored.

The CDC said the doctor's family had been with him, but left for the United States before he became symptomatic; as such it is highly unlikely that they caught the virus from him. Out of an abundance of caution they are on a 21-day fever watch, the CDC said.

edition.cnn.com...

a reply to: DrHammondStoat

Sorry but you can't say the passengers were definitely exposed can you?

I was comparing the far greater danger posed by Sawyer's plane ride into Lagos with the sensationalized hullaboo surrounding the Brantly family's return to the US. My comment is valid in that context - even though the dangers in Lagos are being dismissed by damage control pundits in the US. Fortunately, other nations and decision-makers have stopped with the "Problem? What problem?" non-response. ...I agree that it can be difficult to find a factual reporting balance between outright dismissal and sensationalized fear-mongering, but somebody has to try.

Ebola: Why The World Should Fear Its Spread To Lagos

Before, Ebola was limited to the rural western African countries Liberia, Guinea, and Sierra Leone. What makes Sawyer's case scary is that he entered Lagos, one of the most densely populated cities in the world, with a confirmed Ebola infection.

Even scarier is the fact that Lagos is a major portal for international travel. Thus, if the virus is not immediately contained, it could spread globally.

As of now, Nigeria's efforts to contain the Ebola virus seem futile. ….

UK doctors sound alarm over potential Ebola outbreak[/url

[url=http://www.cbc.ca/news/health/ebola-outbreak-more-than-doctors-needed-to-contain-west-africa-s-unprecedented-crisis-1.2720882]Ebola outbreak: More than doctors needed to contain West Africa's unprecedented crisis

Quebec doctor Marc Forget, who has been on the front lines of the epidemic in Guinea for seven weeks, told CBC News that past Ebola outbreaks were contained quite quickly with the intervention of international groups such as Doctors Without Borders working in conjunction with a country's ministry of health.

This time, he says, "the magnitude of the disease is unprecedented," and a stronger response is required, both in resources and personnel — including water, sanitation and logistics specialists, as well as medical staff.

West African airline suspends flights amid Ebola

Ebola outbreak: Liberia suspends football

Ebola Not A Significant Threat To U.S., CDC Says

This is how easy it can come to America, if that doctor had sex with his wife just before she left, she could have it now too.

Liberia's health ministry is investigating how Brantly contracted the virus.

"We're trying to figure out what went wrong because he was always very careful," said Tolbert Nyenswah, an assistant health minister in Monrovia.

Amber Brantly and the children departed for a wedding in the U.S. just days before Brantly fell ill and quarantined himself.

They are currently staying with family in Abilene and, while not subject to quarantine, are monitoring their temperatures for an early sign of viral infection, a City of Abilene spokeswoman said.

Their return has sparked questions about whether they might introduce the infection to the U.S.

However, Stephan Monroe of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Monday that "Ebola poses little risk to the general U.S. population."

Scary stuff

originally posted by: intrptr
a reply to: soficrow

Due to Ebola's varying incubation period (2 - 21 days)

Especially that. For 21 days before first symptoms, then for x number of days with symptoms, lots of time to spread the disease. It lives outside the body on surfaces for some time, too.

If he was showing symptoms on the plane he already had it before he got on. Modern jet aircraft add antiseptic of some sort to their air supply for that reason. Was his plane a jet liner or a short hop twin prop passenger, do you know?

That's a good question, however, this occurs to me...
If he was already symptomatic, then the infection was in his saliva, sweat, etc. When he handed his passport to the attendant b/f boarding the plane, was there sweat on his hand? Had he coughed into his hand? When that attendant handled other folks passports, did these insidious germs transfer to other passengers? On the plane, did a stewardess hand him a cup of pepsi and then collect the trash back from him, and then later hand another person a drink, even on a different flight.

It would seem that everyone, EVERYONE who passed thru that airport and airplane, from the time he showed up onwards, is at risk... plus everyone THEY came into contact with.

I do not understand why they have not restricted travel in that area.