Ebola reported in Lagos, Nigeria, Megacity of 21 Million People

a reply to: GogoVicMorrow

I personally don't think it will ever spread in first world countries like it does in Africa, but it's definitely a game changer for Africa.

Ebola is 24 hours from anywhere on earth by jet liner. This new case in Nigeria is disturbing. Like you said time will tell…


…they'll know in about 21 days.

shivers

a reply to: soficrow

This is incorrect I promise. Ebola Zaire has a mortality rate of UP TO 90% (never 99) and it has had outbreaks where the mortality rate was much lower. This latest outbreak (the one going on now with 60% mortality rate) is an outbreak of Ebola Zaire.

Initial reports suggested it was a new Ebola strain, but after testing it was retracted and the virus was placed in the Ebola Zaire family.

Originally, the suspected cases were reported in Conakry (four cases), Guéckédougou (four), Macenta (one) and Dabola (one) prefectures. On 25 March the Ministry of Health of Guinea reported that four southeastern districts—Guekedou, Macenta, Nzerekore, and Kissidougou—were affected with an outbreak of Ebola hemorrhagic fever.[6] The following day the Pasteur Institute in Lyon, France confirmed the Ebola strain as Zaire ebolavirus.[6] An initial report suggested that it was a new strain of ebolavirus,[7] but this was refuted by later studies which placed it within the lineage of the Zaire strain.[8] One suspected case was admitted to hospital on 28 March 2014.[9] On 31 March, the US Centers for Disease Control sent a five-person team "to assist Guinea Ministry of Health (MOH) and World Health Organization (WHO) led international response to the Ebola outbreak".[6]

en.wikipedia.org...

originally posted by: GogoVicMorrow
a reply to: soficrow

EDIT: Wait is this a different Ebola doctor?

Given that they knew he was exposed before he started showing symptoms my guess is that he knew exactly when he got infected.

Have they said? My guess would be an infected person coughed on him or he pricked himself with a needle because he tested himself and test positive. They didn't find out he had it because he was sick.

So i'd say something happened, he thought damn, and quarantined and tested himself.

Sawyer was NOT a doctor - as stated several times above, he was a Liberian civil servant attending a conference in Lagos. Also as stated above and illustrated in posts and news quotes above, the story keeps changing as damage control communications strategies kick in. But his sister died of Ebola in Liberia - he apparently had contact with her - and it looks like he left the plane, airport and hotel and attended the conference before exhibiting symptoms (or collapsing, as one report said).

The Liberian was a member of a Liberian delegation attending a conference in Lagos when he reportedly began exhibiting symptoms of the deadly virus.

a reply to: intrptr

Yes, but first world countries are better prepared to fight it, aren't eating bush meant, and don't subscribe to the African people's theories that Ebola is non existent and a lie by their government to stop the bush meat trade.

a reply to: soficrow

Now that he's dead he can't help them anymore to back track his movements.

He might have said, "Oh yah, and I also sneezed into the salad bar at the Hilton."

Gulp

originally posted by: soficrow

originally posted by: GogoVicMorrow
a reply to: soficrow

EDIT: Wait is this a different Ebola doctor?

Given that they knew he was exposed before he started showing symptoms my guess is that he knew exactly when he got infected.

Have they said? My guess would be an infected person coughed on him or he pricked himself with a needle because he tested himself and test positive. They didn't find out he had it because he was sick.

So i'd say something happened, he thought damn, and quarantined and tested himself.

Sawyer was NOT a doctor - as stated several times above, he was a Liberian civil servant attending a conference in Lagos. Also as stated above and illustrated in posts and news quotes above, the story keeps changing as damage control communications strategies kick in. But his sister died of Ebola in Liberia - he apparently had contact with her - and it looks like he left the plane, airport and hotel and attended the conference before exhibiting symptoms (or collapsing, as one report said).

The Liberian was a member of a Liberian delegation attending a conference in Lagos when he reportedly began exhibiting symptoms of the deadly virus.

I was talking about the the post discussing Dr. Brantley, I must've clicked the wrong person to reply to.

a reply to: GogoVicMorrow

Aids brooke in the first world and is still with us. They never contained that either.

What makes Ebola more potentially dangerous is it already likes humans, has a long incubation and can live outside the body for longer periods.

Combined with modern travel and the location of this outbreak being "somewhat less than first world in their procedures and training".

Earlier thread I brought a video that I can't find that showed them using a shower curtain draped over a doorway for biohazard level four containment in one of their labs over there.

A_shower_curtain.

a reply to: intrptr

Apples and Oranges. We are talking about a virus that makes you super ill and kills within days and spreads through all bodily fluid. You can't catch HIV from a sneeze or cough. Also people live long enough and are well enough long enough to spread it. Ebola kills the s*** out of you really fast and doesn't have the chance to spread. It DOES NOT have that long of an incubation period, generally 4-7 days, longer in rare cases. I think you are confusing it's incubation period with the time it takes to completely clear the bodies of survivors.

That's the reality despite what some doomers might say. It would have to go through significant mutations to become dangerous enough to become dangerous to the world.

I shared that video.. there is a shower curtain just for separation. You failed to mention they are using full tyvex suits with respirators when they go past that shower curtain. They couldn't remove the curtain and it wouldn't make it any more or less dangerous.

Just to be clear, this current outbreak IS a strain of Ebola Zaire. It is not a completely new strain. Initial reports indicated that, but they have since found that it is part of the Zaire lineage.

a reply to: GogoVicMorrow

Ebola kills the s*** out of you really fast and doesn't have the chance to spread.

Really? Is that why its still spreading?

Ebolas kills fast once having undergone amplification, but during incubation (up to 21 days) any number of people can be infected.

Right?

a reply to: GogoVicMorrow

Agreed.

ETA: Not only but it may further mutate (becoming airborne for instance) during the outbreak. Considering the number of virus replication events that occur in a single host (bazillions), the possibility of mutation is increasing as the number of hosts do.

An article that outlines the possibilities of this latest outbreak spreading from Guinea. It looks like Europe would be more likely to be affected first, if at all. I hope they are right about the 'not at all' bit!

The outbreak in West Africa is the largest in history. Nearly 500 people have caught the in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. The death toll so far is 338, the World Health Organization Tuesday. So should Europe and the U.S. begin worrying about the virus? A UNICEF field worker talks to villagers in Liberia's Foya District about how to prevent Ebola disease. "The chance of Ebola spreading out of West Africa is very, very low," says infectious disease specialist , with St. Michael's Hospital in Toronto. "But if it did spread, Paris is probably the first city on the list." Paris? Why single out that city? To answer that, let's back up a bit.

Khan and his team have spent years figuring out how viruses and bacteria move around the globe. "We look at many outbreaks and decide what paths they're going take," he tells Shots. "The big question is whether sick people are going to get on a plane and spread the disease." That answer, he has found, depends largely on two factors: How many people are infected, and the degree of travel from the outbreak area.

Take for example, the respiratory virus that can spread through water droplets when a person coughs or sneezes. When SARS first appeared in 2002, it was isolated to rural China. So it spread slowly. Travelers crowd around a ticketing counter at John F. Kennedy International Airport in April 2010 in New York. After about four months, a doctor brought SARS to Hong Kong. The outbreak quickly worsened. "The airport in Hong Kong is a major, major international hub," Khan says. "You could see SARS start spreading rapidly around the world from there." The virus jumped from Hong Kong to Vietnam and Thailand. It crossed the Pacific Ocean to Canada and the U.S. Eventually, it reached several countries in Europe. More than 8,000 people caught the virus. But critical differences between SARS and Ebola make the Ebola virus much less threatening, Khan says.

The major city affected by the Ebola outbreak is , Guinea, home to about a million people and an . But it's not a central hub, like Hong Kong International Airport or Chicago O'Hare. "The volume of travel in the Conakry airport is low," Khan says. "Most of the flights are local. But 10 percent of the traffic goes to Paris." That would make Paris the likeliest place for Ebola to arrive. And it is a possibility. After a person is infected with Ebola, symptoms could appear within two days — or take up to 21 days, Khan says. So a person infected in Guinea could hop on a plane and bring Ebola to, say, France or another international destination.

Even if that happens, the odds of fellow passengers catching the virus are extremely low, says , who specializes in aviation medicine at Lahey Medical Center in Peabody, Mass. Several cases support this claim. In 1996, a Gabon man with clear symptoms of Ebola boarded a plane to Johannesburg to seek medical treatment. He had a fever above 105 degrees Fahrenheit and signs of internal bleeding. The man eventually made it to a hospital in South Africa. He did not infect anyone during his flight or other travels, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control . Why? Unlike SARS, Ebola doesn't pass easily from person to person. "Transmission requires very close contact with bodily fluids, like blood or mucus," Gendreau says. "You need prolonged contact with somebody." There's another case that argues against Ebola spreading because of airline travel. In 2004, a businessman visiting Sierra Leone flew to London and then the U.S. He had a fever, diarrhea and back pain. When he reached his hometown in New Jersey, he went straight to a hospital. The diagnosis was Lassa fever — another hemorrhagic virus that, like Ebola, is transmitted through bodily contact. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention tracked down 188 people who had close contact with the man during his travels, including 19 passengers on the flight from London to Newark. The CDC reported that none of them caught the virus.

www.npr.org...

a reply to: GogoVicMorrow

originally posted by: GogoVicMorrow
a reply to: intrptr

...We are talking about a virus that makes you super ill and kills within days and spreads through all bodily fluid....Ebola kills the s*** out of you really fast and doesn't have the chance to spread. It DOES NOT have that long of an incubation period, generally 4-7 days, longer in rare cases. I think you are confusing it's incubation period with the time it takes to completely clear the bodies of survivors.

Mutated Zaire or new strain - doesn't matter much - this one's a brand new ballgame. It obviously does NOT kill within days, else it wouldn't have spread out of remote, isolated villages to at least 4 countries and into major international centers. We're also talking a 40% survival rate, and speaking of bodily fluids, men who have recovered from the disease can still transmit the virus through their semen for up to 7 weeks after recovery.

fyi - Denial doesn't make damage control talking points real. From the WHO:

Men who have recovered from the disease can still transmit the virus through their semen for up to 7 weeks after recovery from illness.

......The incubation period, that is, the time interval from infection with the virus to onset of symptoms, is 2 to 21 days.

...It would have to go through significant mutations to become dangerous enough to become dangerous to the world.

Ever heard of deforestation? Epigenetics? Ever considered viruses' ability to respond rapidly to environmental change - like with exposure to any of the 80,000 synthetic chemicals that have been loosed on the world or with the infinite number of compounds these synthetic chemicals can form with other chemicals? And what about Ebola's nifty Transformer Protein? ....Methinks there are more thing in heaven and earth than are dreamt of in your dogma....

....they are using full tyvex suits with respirators when they go past that shower curtain.

Are you kidding? One of the biggest problems is that West Africa's medical systems - and aid organizations - are desperate for resources like protective gear. Doctors are on strike because of the deficits - nurses and healthcare workers are walking off the job leaving hospitals unstaffed because they're being put at undue risk.

The WHO and Medecins Sans Frontieres (Doctors Without Borders) both say the outbreak is out of control. It killed 25 out of 28 nurses in a single hospital in Sierra Leone and patients are disappearing into the forest rather than seek treatment.

Suspected Ebola Patient Dies At JFK - Several Nurses, Others Abandon Work

Normal working and medical activities at the John F. Kennedy Medical Center were on Friday, July 11, 2014 halted for several hours as a result of the death of a suspected Ebola patient at the hospital.

…..Some patients admitted at the hospital alleged that both medical doctors and nurses abandoned them when the news broke out that a patient suspected of contracting the deadly Ebola virus had died.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, the patients said most of the nurses that were on duty during the night were seen without safety gears.

They further alleged that the nurses abandoned their duties and responsibilities for fear of coming in contact with the deadly virus.

According to them, the alleged abandonment by both the medical doctors and nurses made their condition to worsen.

"You are asking me if I am working; just go to the ER, the woman that died from Ebola yesterday is there. You can go and see for yourself because press people like to make sure," a nurse who was walking out of the JFK compound asserted when quizzed by our reporter who had gone to the hospital upon getting the scoop.

……"Only the patients are in the hospital. They send for the MOHSW people to come and take the body from here; up to now they are not here. We are also afraid because, we don't know what is happening to them inside there.

So, we want them to release our patients so we can take them elsewhere because, the doctors and nurses too are running away," averred one Mr. Moses Laftey.

originally posted by: intrptr
a reply to: GogoVicMorrow

....Not only but it may further mutate (becoming airborne for instance) during the outbreak. Considering the number of virus replication events that occur in a single host (bazillions), the possibility of mutation is increasing as the number of hosts do.

And considering the fact that that viruses tend to mutate to accommodate each new host's unique individual microbiome....

What are the chances of this being carried on aeroplanes across the world?

Are we grounding flights yet, otherwise this could become a nightmare.

a reply to: intrptr

Yeah... up to, but that's not generally the case. It can be from 2 to 21 days. HOWEVER in most cases symptoms will kick in between 2 and 7 days. The 21 days is probably published as caution for quarantine or possibly someone who had already long had symptoms but was in denial, or gave incorrect date of likely infection.

In reality it usually shows up within a week. I presume it is spreadable during it's incubation (some diseases aren't), but it's less likely since the symptoms are usually what cause people to shed the virus that infects others.

originally posted by: soficrow
a reply to: GogoVicMorrow

originally posted by: GogoVicMorrow
a reply to: intrptr

...We are talking about a virus that makes you super ill and kills within days and spreads through all bodily fluid....Ebola kills the s*** out of you really fast and doesn't have the chance to spread. It DOES NOT have that long of an incubation period, generally 4-7 days, longer in rare cases. I think you are confusing it's incubation period with the time it takes to completely clear the bodies of survivors.

Mutated Zaire or new strain - doesn't matter much - this one's a brand new ballgame. It obviously does NOT kill within days, else it wouldn't have spread out of remote, isolated villages to at least 4 countries and into major international centers. We're also talking a 40% survival rate, and speaking of bodily fluids, men who have recovered from the disease can still transmit the virus through their semen for up to 7 weeks after recovery.

fyi - Denial doesn't make damage control talking points real. From the WHO:

Men who have recovered from the disease can still transmit the virus through their semen for up to 7 weeks after recovery from illness.

......The incubation period, that is, the time interval from infection with the virus to onset of symptoms, is 2 to 21 days.

...It would have to go through significant mutations to become dangerous enough to become dangerous to the world.

Ever heard of deforestation? Epigenetics? Ever considered viruses' ability to respond rapidly to environmental change - like with exposure to any of the 80,000 synthetic chemicals that have been loosed on the world or with the infinite number of compounds these synthetic chemicals can form with other chemicals? And what about Ebola's nifty Transformer Protein? ....Methinks there are more thing in heaven and earth than are dreamt of in your dogma....

....they are using full tyvex suits with respirators when they go past that shower curtain.

Are you kidding? One of the biggest problems is that West Africa's medical systems - and aid organizations - are desperate for resources like protective gear. Doctors are on strike because of the deficits - nurses and healthcare workers are walking off the job leaving hospitals unstaffed because they're being put at undue risk.

The WHO and Medecins Sans Frontieres (Doctors Without Borders) both say the outbreak is out of control. It killed 25 out of 28 nurses in a single hospital in Sierra Leone and patients are disappearing into the forest rather than seek treatment.

Suspected Ebola Patient Dies At JFK - Several Nurses, Others Abandon Work

Normal working and medical activities at the John F. Kennedy Medical Center were on Friday, July 11, 2014 halted for several hours as a result of the death of a suspected Ebola patient at the hospital.

…..Some patients admitted at the hospital alleged that both medical doctors and nurses abandoned them when the news broke out that a patient suspected of contracting the deadly Ebola virus had died.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, the patients said most of the nurses that were on duty during the night were seen without safety gears.

They further alleged that the nurses abandoned their duties and responsibilities for fear of coming in contact with the deadly virus.

According to them, the alleged abandonment by both the medical doctors and nurses made their condition to worsen.

"You are asking me if I am working; just go to the ER, the woman that died from Ebola yesterday is there. You can go and see for yourself because press people like to make sure," a nurse who was walking out of the JFK compound asserted when quizzed by our reporter who had gone to the hospital upon getting the scoop.

……"Only the patients are in the hospital. They send for the MOHSW people to come and take the body from here; up to now they are not here. We are also afraid because, we don't know what is happening to them inside there.

So, we want them to release our patients so we can take them elsewhere because, the doctors and nurses too are running away," averred one Mr. Moses Laftey.

Your information is incorrect.

First the clarification of whether it's a new strain altogether (which it isn't) or of the Zaire lineage, as is the case, is important because we want to be accurate.

Second, it DOES kill, those that it kills, within days. Your suggestion this isn't true because it has spread is incorrect for a number of reason. Namely that much of the spread is due to funeral rituals in which families come into contact with the dead, but still infectious bodies AND much spread is happens in the hospitals where patients and caretakers catch it. I would say a small percentage of the spread is caused by sick people casually wandering around spreading the illness. They are sick in bed spreading it to whomever is caring for them.

You almost have to work to catch it. The only reason people are talking pandemic is out of fear of the affects of the disease because it's most certainly not the numbers of those that are or have been infected.


Now addressing your wordy fear mongering second paragraph. Ebola is known to be an incredibly slow mutating virus. All the rest of that paragraph is just hysteria. Also.. what about the Transformer protein? It's purpose is known. I think you just wanted to use the word vaguely to imply it means something that it doesn't. Ebola is a dangerous virus. It's interesting, and it's scary, but unless someone intentionally manipulates it or intentionally spreads it, as it works now, it just isn't pandemic material.


And my favorite part to respond to. Your third rant in the above quoted material. That one sentence that you harped on about was in regard to another commenter's description of a video where they were using a shower curtain for protection. I explained that they also had full tyvex suits and respirators AND I even posted the video as evidence. I guess you just weren't paying attention and somehow ignored the huge video in the post.

originally posted by: mr-lizard
What are the chances of this being carried on aeroplanes across the world?

Are we grounding flights yet, otherwise this could become a nightmare.

No doubt Ebola can spread with travellers by air, boat and otherwise - it also can spread on trade items. Are you up for stopping global trade too? ...The virus can remain infectious for days at room temperature and is indefinitely stable at -70°C. ...

Nigeria Death Shows Ebola Can Spread by Air Travel

SURVIVAL OUTSIDE HOST: The virus can survive in liquid or dried material for a number of days (23). Infectivity is found to be stable at room temperature or at 4°C for several days, and indefinitely stable at -70°C (6, 20). Infectivity can be preserved by lyophilisation (freeze-drying).

From an old thread:

(Quarantine doesn't work)

...isolating Africa, and shutting the continent out of the global trade-and-economic paradigm won't work, will it? 'Cuz our planet is a single inter-connected system, isn't it?

What with the wind and all.....

The dust clouds drifting from Africa to the Caribbean have a dangerous secret - bacteria and microbes that leave a trail of disease in their wake.

Rift Valley fever - a disease that can spread with the wind

www.planetark.com...

East Africa Wheat Fungus may Pose Global Threat - Report

NAIROBI - A resilient new strain of wheat fungus from east Africa is threatening to spread to the Middle East, Asia and the Americas and bring catastrophic crop damage, scientists said on Thursday.

Researchers said the new Ug99 form of stem rust could be spread by the wind and attacked many varieties of spring and winter wheat that were resistant to other strains of the fungus.

Fungus diseases spread by wind: infect corn crops

POTENTIAL FOR WIND-BORNE SPREAD OF FOOT-AND-MOUTH DISEASE VIRUS IN AUSTRALIA


And never mind atmospheric winds - industrial activities continue to do more than there share of creating disease, releasing it into the environment, and helping it spread. For example:

Fish-Stocking May Spread Amphibian Disease

Science Daily — New research shows that hatchery-reared fish can spread a fungus implicated in the mass deaths of amphibian embryos in the Pacific Northwest. This is the first evidence that fish- stocking can spread amphibian diseases.

There is much, much more of course. The above being just a momentary peek at the microscopic tip of the tip of the iceberg.

So...

No point blaming Africa. Or trying to isolate the continent. Can't be done.

FYI:

Quarantine won’t work. Never has. There are two reasons why.

The first is epidemiological. Despite numerous attempts throughout history, quarantine efforts have shown very little value in stopping an epidemic.

We know this and we know why. Infectious diseases are quite good at what they do, which is to be fruitful and multiply. Influenza, with its airborne droplet and casual contact transmission modes, is one of the most highly infectious of the lot. People nearing the end of the incubation phase of an infection, still feeling perfectly healthy, are shedding virus at maximum rates and are, therefore, maximally infectious. Thermal scanners won’t pick them up.

........The second reason quarantine won’t work is human nature. Strict social controls are anathema to free peoples.

Social controls work in highly regimented, closed societies. If Kim Jong Il says jump, 22 million North Koreans obediently (fearfully) cry out “how high?” in unison.

Now imagine standing in front of a group of ....

a reply to: soficrow

Likelihood of spreading through through any trade items other than monkeys or bats is probably not possible.

BTW I am not trying to be argumentative. I've just studied up on Ebola alot. It's just not a good spreader. Imagine if we were tracking a new flu outbreak in those areas of Africa. It's been 6 months, it would be worldwide and in every state by now.

Just to be clear, Ebola does NOT kill within days - as evidenced by the index case in Freetown. Saudatu Koroma of Freetown was hospitalized by July 13, 2014 and died July 26, 2014 - that's about 2 weeks, not days.

July 13, 2014 - Ebola Epidemic Spreads to Freetown

25 July 2014 - First Ebola victim in (Freetown) on the run

Sierra Leone escaped patient dies

A Sierra Leone woman who fled hospital after testing positive for the Ebola virus has died after turning herself in, health officials have told the BBC.

Her family had forcibly removed her from a public hospital on Thursday.

Saudatu Koroma's is the first case of Ebola to be confirmed in the country's capital Freetown, where there are no facilities to treat the virus.