Ebola Epidemic Could Become Global Crisis

TruthxIsxInxThexMist
reply to post by soficrow

 

Why was a new Thread started on this?

I posted in the other one 2 days ago I think and no wonder no-one replied.

Anyway, I posted this:

....01 Apr 2014

I assume you're referring to this thread: Ebola Out Break Confirmed - I missed it but now that I see it, it's a good thread - I did do a search before posting and it didn't come up. Happens.

This one is a bit of a different topic anyway - Ebola Epidemic Could Become Global Crisis, and starts out focusing on the geographic spread, the difficulties of containment and the potential danger of a global crisis.

reply to post by TruthxIsxInxThexMist

\I'm just glad its only transmitted via bodily fluids at the moment.

Me too!

....But how to explain that unprecedented geographic spread?

reply to post by soficrow


Is it not possible that a bat carried it across borders?

Which is even more scary, come to think of it. Bats are found everywhere and could carry it across Africa!

O dear. I hope not.

TruthxIsxInxThexMist
reply to post by soficrow

 

Is it not possible that a bat carried it across borders?

Which is even more scary, come to think of it. Bats are found everywhere and could carry it across Africa!

O dear. I hope not.

Bats are suspected to be the reservoir as I recall but supposedly, the cross-border cases here originated in Guinea. Nothing is being said about the geographic spread within Guinea though. Which is concerning.


Also - apparently there may be other viruses involved like Lassa, not just Zaire Ebola. Mentioned but not discussed. Also concerning. Especially since our world is a giant petrie dish and we keep adding new elements and compounds to the mix.

reply to post by soficrow


What about a function of some sort, like a wedding? People came from different areas, someone at the wedding had the virus, people used the same toilets... and then at the end of the night wen back to their areas, passed on to someone else, that person went home, passed onto someone else... etc etc, the story continued.

I dunno. its a toughy.

Hmm. A bit sensationalist but have to post this. Move over Hantavirus.

Ebola, Crossing Borders in Africa, Could Land in US

Symptoms of the disease, such as fever, red eyes and bleeding, can take up to three weeks to appear — ample time for an unwitting victim to travel outside the West African hot zone.

“It’s true that anyone with an illness is just one plane ride away from coming to the U.S.,” said John O’Connor, spokesman for the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. “But we have protections in place.”

...“There’s nothing to prevent someone traveling here asymptomatically during the incubation period,” said ABC News’ chief health and medical editor Dr. Richard Besser, who served as acting director of the CDC during the swine flu outbreak. “It’s one of the reasons we have a vested interest in helping to control outbreaks where they start.”

... the CDC has urged travelers to avoid contact with blood and body fluids from people who might be infected and to seek immediate medical care seek medical care for symptoms of the hemorrhagic fever, which include fever, headache, sore throat, vomiting, diarrhea, rash and red eyes.

And in case you were wondering...

Nigerian Government Refutes Ebola Outbreak Claims

At a news conference in Abuja, the Minister of State for Health, Dr Khaliru Alhassan, said “most Nigerians mistake Dengue fever, which is also transmitted by mosquitoes in urban and semi urban areas, for Ebola disease.

He dismissed media report that there was an outbreak of the disease, saying that laboratory investigations revealed that it is not Ebola. ....

reply to post by soficrow

Let us hope that no government will deny having ebola active in their country just to 'save face' or prevent borders being closed or trade being stopped. That would spell catastrophe for all.

There are many ways I don't want to die... Ebola is still in the top ranks.
It seems so cruel to suffer from Ebola and you know nobody is able to help you and you just have to wait and see if you survive or die.

reply to post by soficrow


Hi soficrow,

Thank you very much for your dedication to bringing information to light concerning outbreaks and such.

FYI the entry in Wikipedia describes the current Ebola outbreak as "ZEBOV". I noticed that the first outbreak of Ebola was "recognized" in 1976, 38 years ago. Being born an American I instantly think of 1976 as the Bicentennial year. Not that it means anything, just thinking out loud. I apologize for my ignorance of Ebola history and I realize that Wikipedia isn't the best resource for learning Ebola history. Bats transmit Ebola if I've got it right so has anyone thought about the bats themselves being genealogically altered? Who says that Ebola is "natural" when bats are the carriers of the disease?

Like I said, I don't know that much about Ebola or genetic engineering so I might be barking up the wrong tree. I'm a Scorpio and my sign says that scorps are suspicious because we're born in November.

en.wikipedia.org...

I'm curious, how come WHO didn't show up sooner to get this outbreak under control?

I will continue watching this space.

Tuned in,

Toni

reply to post by Antoniastar


Thank you, and you're welcome. ...ZEBOV stands for Zaire EBOla Virus - and as the WHO is funded by governments concerned about trade, they do a lot of "don't panic" damage control. Reports from on-the-front-lines Doctors Without Borders (MSF, Medicin Sans Frontiers) are likely more ...reliable.

UPDATE
Several news agencies report that the death toll has climbed to 83. Doctora Without Borders says cases are too spread out geographically and they need more help, and the situation is unprecedented - the World Health Organization says it's not that bad, focusing on damage control for trade.

Ebola Reaches Guinean Capital, Stirring Fears

……Over the past month, the disease has traveled from Guinea’s remote forest regions near the Liberia and Sierra Leone borders and has already killed 83 people, including four in Conakry.

Now, with 13 cases in a densely populated capital of two million people, health officials say the challenge of containing the outbreak has become more acute. Ebola has killed hundreds in rural Central Africa over the past four decades, but it is unusual for it to reach urban centers.

…..“It’s the combination of having quite a number of cases, and also the geographical dispersion,” said Dr. Hilde de Clerck of Doctors Without Borders, the global medical charity. “Now that it has reached Conakry, it is also special, and a bit more scary.”

Senegal has closed its border with Guinea. About half a dozen suspected cases and two confirmed cases have been identified in neighboring Liberia, officials said. The center of the epidemic remains in Guinea’s remote forest region, around the towns of Macenta and Guéckédou, where isolation wards have been set up.

WHO says Guinea Ebola outbreak small as MSF slams international response

The World Health Organization on Tuesday (Wednesday, PHL time) played down the extent of an outbreak of the deadly Ebola virus suspected to have killed over 80 in Guinea, a day after medical charity Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF) warned of an unprecedented epidemic.

Countries in West Africa - including neighboring Sierra Leone and Libera where suspected cases have also been detected - are scrambling to bring the outbreak under control, with many of them imposing health and travel restrictions.

MSF has warned they face an uphill task because the infections are scattered across several locations, most worryingly in Guinea's densely populated capital Conakry. It blasted governments and international public health organizations for not doing enough to tackle it.

However, the World Health Organization (WHO) said the number of suspected and confirmed cases in Guinea was unchanged from the previous day at 122, of whom 80 had died. In Liberia, there were seven suspected or confirmed cases, of whom four had died.

…"Ebola already causes enough concern and we need to be very careful about how we characterize something which is up until now an outbreak with sporadic cases," Hartl said.

However, MSF Director General Bruno Jochum said it was remarkable the outbreak had spread to several places and to a city of around two million people, Conakry.

…..Jochum said at a separate news conference in Geneva on Tuesday that MSF and other organizations such as the Red Cross and Pasteur Institute had been active on the ground but the response from state authorities and international public health organizations has been minimal.

[Sorry - posted at the same time and missed this one.]
reply to post by TruthxIsxInxThexMist

What about a function of some sort, like a wedding? People came from different areas, someone at the wedding had the virus, people used the same toilets... and then at the end of the night wen back to their areas, passed on to someone else, that person went home, passed onto someone else... etc etc, the story continued.

Yep - that's how epidemics and pandemics start. There's always a "Patient Zero" - and a "Location Zero" for that matter. Which makes the WHO's claims seem a bit weird - unless they're suggesting that all the cases originate from the same 'wedding,' and don't represent a chain of infections.

Ebola outbreak in Guinea 'limited geographically' - WHO

….The WHO says the epidemiology of this outbreak is the same as previous outbreaks and remains localised, the BBC's Imogen Foulkes reports from Geneva.

The organisation adds that cases in Conakry and Liberia can be traced to the south-east of Guinea where the outbreak began.

soficrow
reply to post by Antoniastar

 

Thank you, and you're welcome. ...ZEBOV stands for Zaire EBOla Virus - and as the WHO is funded by governments concerned about trade, they do a lot of "don't panic" damage control. Reports from on-the-front-lines Doctors Without Borders (MSF, Medicin Sans Frontiers) are likely more ...reliable.

UPDATE
Several news agencies report that the death toll has climbed to 83. Doctora Without Borders says cases are too spread out geographically and they need more help, and the situation is unprecedented - the World Health Organization says it's not that bad, focusing on damage control for trade.

Ebola Reaches Guinean Capital, Stirring Fears

……Over the past month, the disease has traveled from Guinea’s remote forest regions near the Liberia and Sierra Leone borders and has already killed 83 people, including four in Conakry.

Now, with 13 cases in a densely populated capital of two million people, health officials say the challenge of containing the outbreak has become more acute. Ebola has killed hundreds in rural Central Africa over the past four decades, but it is unusual for it to reach urban centers.

…..“It’s the combination of having quite a number of cases, and also the geographical dispersion,” said Dr. Hilde de Clerck of Doctors Without Borders, the global medical charity. “Now that it has reached Conakry, it is also special, and a bit more scary.”

Senegal has closed its border with Guinea. About half a dozen suspected cases and two confirmed cases have been identified in neighboring Liberia, officials said. The center of the epidemic remains in Guinea’s remote forest region, around the towns of Macenta and Guéckédou, where isolation wards have been set up.

WHO says Guinea Ebola outbreak small as MSF slams international response

The World Health Organization on Tuesday (Wednesday, PHL time) played down the extent of an outbreak of the deadly Ebola virus suspected to have killed over 80 in Guinea, a day after medical charity Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF) warned of an unprecedented epidemic.

Countries in West Africa - including neighboring Sierra Leone and Libera where suspected cases have also been detected - are scrambling to bring the outbreak under control, with many of them imposing health and travel restrictions.

MSF has warned they face an uphill task because the infections are scattered across several locations, most worryingly in Guinea's densely populated capital Conakry. It blasted governments and international public health organizations for not doing enough to tackle it.

However, the World Health Organization (WHO) said the number of suspected and confirmed cases in Guinea was unchanged from the previous day at 122, of whom 80 had died. In Liberia, there were seven suspected or confirmed cases, of whom four had died.

…"Ebola already causes enough concern and we need to be very careful about how we characterize something which is up until now an outbreak with sporadic cases," Hartl said.

However, MSF Director General Bruno Jochum said it was remarkable the outbreak had spread to several places and to a city of around two million people, Conakry.

…..Jochum said at a separate news conference in Geneva on Tuesday that MSF and other organizations such as the Red Cross and Pasteur Institute had been active on the ground but the response from state authorities and international public health organizations has been minimal.

Soficrow, thank you for your enlightening reply and for clarification. You are a great teacher. And I didn't realize that Doctors Without Borders even existed until I read about it on your thread. They are global volunteers hmmm....that is interesting.

Yep I get it now...WHO seems to be downplaying the situation. I guess I hadn't thought of WHO being in the trading business. I thought they were in the disease control business. Looks like they're branching out. Disease and trade ... oh wait a doggone minute. Never mind, they are related. Duh.

2 APR 2014 - 6:40AM
Guinea Ebola toll hits 80

The Ebola death toll in Guinea has risen to 80, authorities say. More than 120 suspected cases have also been registered.

Did Ebola exist pre 1976?

Are there any mentions of it in earlier medical literature than that date, afterall Africa has been around for a long, long time?

reply to post by soficrow


yeh seems suspicious if its going to go Global

anyways the immediate answer is ground all air traffic to and from Guniea , and just barricade the entire country
stop it from even getting a hold.

www.dailymail.co.uk...

So, Ebola was not reported until 1976 and the research on it being airborne was done in Canada.

Let's hope it doesn't like floating in dust from Africa to the UK.

reply to post by Elliot


MYohmy. EXCELLENT find Elliot. S& ...So Ebola is airborne between pigs and monkeys, at least. It can incubate for 3 weeks without showing symptoms, and the Zaire strain kills up to 90% of its victims. But the World Health Organization, CDC and rest of the health powers are not really concerned - even though Doctors Without Borders is begging for help. No problems here, move along now.

From your source:

Could Ebola now be airborne? New research shows lethal virus can be spread from pigs to monkeys without contact
PUBLISHED: 13:27 GMT, 16 November 2012

Findings come as scores of Ugandans are isolated in latest outbreak
Untreatable virus causes internal bleeding and multiple organ failure
Previously thought to be transmitted only by direct contact

reply to post by soficrow

Judging by the 3 weeks max incubation period, the next three weeks is going to be 'show and tell' time!

Elliot
reply to post by soficrow

 

Judging by the 3 weeks max incubation period, the next three weeks is going to be 'show and tell' time!

Isn't it. ...Wrote this before I logged on, saw your post, responded and started this thread (needed, imho):

As expected, the death toll is rising - the Zaire Ebola virus kills up to 90% of those infected - and now has killed 87 people in this latest outbreak. The World Health Organization reports 134 cases in Guinea and Liberia.

The fear remains that such diseases are "only a plane ride away."

The incubation time can be up to 21 days before showing symptoms but Laurie Garrett of the Council on Foreign Relations in New York says, “The time it takes to travel from rural Guinea to anywhere in the U.S. is more than enough time to incubate the virus and be symptomatic. Even if you could get on an airplane, you’d be carried out on a gurney.” [Really?]

Garret goes on to say, “These are desperately poor places, so the odds that someone’s going to get on an airplane is tiny.”

The Ebola outbreak was identified February 9, 2014 but the US CDC waited til the weekend of March 30, 2014 to send a team to help.

The link in Bishbop09's March 22 thread leads to a BBC article where it sounds like Dr. Armand Sprecher of Doctors Without Borders (MSF) is practically begging the WHO, CDC, anybody to step up to the plate and help. By that time, the Ebola had already spread hundreds of kilometres - from the rainforest to Macenta, Gueckedou, and Kissidougou and on to the capital Conakry.

It was a “false alarm,” Monroe said, “that reminded us that any of these diseases are only a plane ride away.”

….“The time it takes to travel from rural Guinea to anywhere in the U.S. is more than enough time to incubate the virus and be symptomatic,” said Laurie Garrett, a senior fellow with the Council on Foreign Relations in New York who has written two books on emerging infectious disease. “Even if you could get on an airplane, you’d be carried out on a gurney.”

….“These are desperately poor places, so the odds that someone’s going to get on an airplane is tiny,” she said. Instead, the concern is waves of transmission pushing Ebola across local borders.

“If those hospitals are not aware of what’s coming, they will quickly become cauldrons, and spread the virus internally,” Garrett said. “Then people flee to the next hospital, and the next. The most crucial thing right now is to identify who’s infected, remove them from the general population to protect their families, and clean up the hospitals to stop panic exodus.”

….A five-person team from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) departed for Guinea over the weekend to investigate an outbreak of the deadly Ebola virus occurring in the African country, a representative from the CDC confirmed to FoxNews.com.

….The CDC sent its team of investigators to Guinea at the request of the Guinean government and the World Health Organization. Additionally, this week a smaller two-person team will go to Liberia, which shares a border with Guinea, to assist in investigating cases of Ebola that have emerged there.

….“[Zaire Ebola] has never been found outside of central Africa until this outbreak,” Dr. Barbara Knust, an epidemiologist in the viral special pathogens branch of the CDC, told FoxNews.com. “Also, Guinea had never had an Ebola outbreak before and this is the furthest west we’ve had one. There are some unusual things about this outbreak and certainly things to be investigated further to understand its origins.”

Deadly Ebola virus reaches Guinea capital Conakry - UN

"Over the past few days, the deadly haemorrhagic fever has quickly spread from the communities of Macenta, Gueckedou, and Kissidougou to the capital Conakry."

…."We got the first results from Lyon yesterday which informed us of the presence of the Ebola virus as the cause of this outbreak," Guinean health ministry official Sakoba Keita told AFP on Saturday.

"We are overwhelmed in the field, we are fighting against this epidemic with all the means we have at our disposal with the help of our partners but it is difficult."

Medical aid charity Medecins sans Frontieres said on Saturday it would strengthen its team in Guinea and fly some 33 tonnes of drugs and isolation equipment in from Belgium and France.

Dr Armand Sprecher, an emergency physician and epidemiologist working with MSF in Guinea, told the BBC that doctors had to identify all patients with the disease and monitor anyone they had been in contact with during their illness.

The latest outbreak could be brought under control if people acted quickly, he said.

"Based on our history with these sorts of outbreaks it will happen. Ideally, sooner rather than later," said Dr Sprecher.

"The more quickly we can contain this the fewer cases we'll have, then the smaller the scale of the epidemic. That's the idea of going in as strong as we can early on."

Beginning on February 9, cases of haemorrhagic fever were reported in the Guinea region of Africa.

reply to post by ketsuko


It burns itself out rather umquickly and doesnt mutate nearly as quickly as something like influenza.

Here is a good article that explains why its unlikely it will ever cause a pandemic.

here