Ebola Epidemic Could Become Global Crisis

originally posted by: CatLady3912
I read that they didn't have that much of the cure because it was experimental. Now they have to make more which will take time...

But I have to say that this whole Ebola outbreak seems to have gone down wrong from the beginning. Their approach was casual at first because Ebola has never spread like wildfire like it is now......it was always very rural before, and containable. But now it's in high population zones, and that makes this outbreak unprecedented. I have read that Liberia has sealed in the West Point slum. After the raid on the Ebola clinic there, where people ran off with infected sheets and mattresses, and other equipment, well, those people are doomed. A couple of weeks from now we will be reading about the massive Ebola deaths, the stench, the cruelty of locking healthy in with the sick. Well, it won't be pretty.

I'll guess there are 10,000 dead from Ebola, when counting the "shadow deaths" that the WHO has been forced to acknowledge. With students fromAfrica heading back to scholl in probably every county.....international travel.....I think it will spread world wide. Is this the ELE? No. It's a dress rehearsal.

Got to agree but also it still seems casual to me for example WHO has been opposed to closing of borders or flights by country's.
That is like the doctor saying let the guy with the flu in your house
And that seems very strange advice from a group titled World health organization

originally posted by: joho99

originally posted by: CatLady3912
I read that they didn't have that much of the cure because it was experimental. Now they have to make more which will take time...

But I have to say that this whole Ebola outbreak seems to have gone down wrong from the beginning. Their approach was casual at first because Ebola has never spread like wildfire like it is now......it was always very rural before, and containable. But now it's in high population zones, and that makes this outbreak unprecedented. I have read that Liberia has sealed in the West Point slum. After the raid on the Ebola clinic there, where people ran off with infected sheets and mattresses, and other equipment, well, those people are doomed. A couple of weeks from now we will be reading about the massive Ebola deaths, the stench, the cruelty of locking healthy in with the sick. Well, it won't be pretty.

I'll guess there are 10,000 dead from Ebola, when counting the "shadow deaths" that the WHO has been forced to acknowledge. With students fromAfrica heading back to scholl in probably every county.....international travel.....I think it will spread world wide. Is this the ELE? No. It's a dress rehearsal.

Got to agree but also it still seems casual to me for example WHO has been opposed to closing of borders or flights by country's.
That is like the doctor saying let the guy with the flu in your house
And that seems very strange advice from a group titled World health organization

Current research shows that quarantine does not work. Isolation does, but that's different. Generally speaking, quarantine is just a political-economic power play - like what's happening in West Point now in West Africa. ....But your's is an old idea - from 2006: Why We Must Quarantine Africa Soon.

Also see: Quarantine Until Death: The Pandemic Policy Now on Trial in the Court of Public Opinion.

originally posted by: soficrow

originally posted by: joho99

originally posted by: CatLady3912
I read that they didn't have that much of the cure because it was experimental. Now they have to make more which will take time...

But I have to say that this whole Ebola outbreak seems to have gone down wrong from the beginning. Their approach was casual at first because Ebola has never spread like wildfire like it is now......it was always very rural before, and containable. But now it's in high population zones, and that makes this outbreak unprecedented. I have read that Liberia has sealed in the West Point slum. After the raid on the Ebola clinic there, where people ran off with infected sheets and mattresses, and other equipment, well, those people are doomed. A couple of weeks from now we will be reading about the massive Ebola deaths, the stench, the cruelty of locking healthy in with the sick. Well, it won't be pretty.

I'll guess there are 10,000 dead from Ebola, when counting the "shadow deaths" that the WHO has been forced to acknowledge. With students fromAfrica heading back to scholl in probably every county.....international travel.....I think it will spread world wide. Is this the ELE? No. It's a dress rehearsal.

Got to agree but also it still seems casual to me for example WHO has been opposed to closing of borders or flights by country's.
That is like the doctor saying let the guy with the flu in your house
And that seems very strange advice from a group titled World health organization

Current research shows that quarantine does not work. Isolation does, but that's different. Generally speaking, quarantine is just a political-economic power play - like what's happening in West Point now in West Africa. ....But your's is an old idea - from 2006: Why We Must Quarantine Africa Soon.

Also see: Quarantine Until Death: The Pandemic Policy Now on Trial in the Court of Public Opinion.

Quarantine works to slow down the spread buying you time

originally posted by: joho99

originally posted by: soficrow

originally posted by: joho99

originally posted by: CatLady3912
I read that they didn't have that much of the cure because it was experimental. Now they have to make more which will take time...

But I have to say that this whole Ebola outbreak seems to have gone down wrong from the beginning. Their approach was casual at first because Ebola has never spread like wildfire like it is now......it was always very rural before, and containable. But now it's in high population zones, and that makes this outbreak unprecedented. I have read that Liberia has sealed in the West Point slum. After the raid on the Ebola clinic there, where people ran off with infected sheets and mattresses, and other equipment, well, those people are doomed. A couple of weeks from now we will be reading about the massive Ebola deaths, the stench, the cruelty of locking healthy in with the sick. Well, it won't be pretty.

I'll guess there are 10,000 dead from Ebola, when counting the "shadow deaths" that the WHO has been forced to acknowledge. With students fromAfrica heading back to scholl in probably every county.....international travel.....I think it will spread world wide. Is this the ELE? No. It's a dress rehearsal.

Got to agree but also it still seems casual to me for example WHO has been opposed to closing of borders or flights by country's.
That is like the doctor saying let the guy with the flu in your house
And that seems very strange advice from a group titled World health organization

Current research shows that quarantine does not work. Isolation does, but that's different. Generally speaking, quarantine is just a political-economic power play - like what's happening in West Point now in West Africa. ....But your's is an old idea - from 2006: Why We Must Quarantine Africa Soon.

Also see: Quarantine Until Death: The Pandemic Policy Now on Trial in the Court of Public Opinion.

Quarantine works to slow down the spread buying you time

That's the hope of course - but as proved over and over, it doesn't work when an epidemic is already raging. Mainly because the level of isolation required simply cannot be achieved. In this case, economic and political factors colluded to prevent isolation/quarantine in the Kenema Hospital area when it might have done some good - unfortunately, the goal was to cover up the 'outbreak' and the mistaken assumption was that the 'outbreak' would burn itself out quickly.

Now it's too late. ...There is no way and nowhere to impose a real quarantine now - the jungles and waterways offer made-to-order escape routes, and the need to escape infection and find food are HUGE motivators.

For your perusal.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome: Did quarantine help?

Quarantine, the isolation of asymptomatic individuals who are thought to be incubating infection, was a prominent control strategy used in the recent severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreaks. A recent report about the public health efforts to control SARS in Toronto concluded that in future outbreaks "for every case of SARS, health authorities should expect to quarantine up to 100 contacts" (1).

This is a remarkable conclusion. It is one thing to resort to an unproven intervention in the crisis posed by a novel disease threat; however, it is quite another to recommend the continued use of this intervention after the dust has settled and we know, or should know, a great deal more about the problem at hand. Mass quarantine for disease control was essentially abandoned last century. Does it deserve a second look?

An outbreak should meet the following three criteria for quarantine to be a useful measure of disease control:

first, people likely to be incubating the infection must be efficiently and effectively identified;
second, those people must comply with the conditions of quarantine; and
third, the infectious disease in question must be transmissible in its presymptomatic or early symptomatic stages.
The use of quarantine in the Toronto outbreak failed on all three counts.

SARS quarantine in Toronto was both inefficient and ineffective.

Japan: Quarantine At Ports Ineffective Against Pandemic Flu

When Is Quarantine a Useful Control Strategy for Emerging Infectious Diseases?


The isolation and treatment of symptomatic individuals, coupled with the quarantining of individuals that have a high risk of having been infected, constitute two commonly used epidemic control measures. Although isolation is probably always a desirable public health measure, quarantine is more controversial. Mass quarantine can inflict significant social, psychological, and economic costs without resulting in the detection of many infected individuals. The authors use probabilistic models to determine the conditions under which quarantine is expected to be useful. Results demonstrate that the number of infections averted (per initially infected individual) through the use of quarantine is expected to be very low provided that isolation is effective, but it increases abruptly and at an accelerating rate as the effectiveness of isolation diminishes. When isolation is ineffective, the use of quarantine will be most beneficial when there is significant asymptomatic transmission and if the asymptomatic period is neither very long nor very short.

a reply to: joho99

Here's another good quarantine link: The infelicities of quarantine.

And an UPDATE

The UN's World Health Organization on Sunday, August 24, announced a first Ebola infection among the health experts it has dispatched to battle the raging epidemic in West Africa…

Airborne Transmission of Ebola
August 24, 2014

The public has been misinformed regarding human-to-human transmission of Ebola. Assurances that Ebola can be transmitted only through direct contact with bodily fluids need to be seriously scrutinized in the wake of the West Africa outbreak.

The Canadian Health Department states that airborne transmission of Ebola is strongly suspected and the CDC admits that Ebola can be transmitted in situations where there is no physical contact between people, i.e.: via direct airborne inhalation into the lungs or into the eyes, or via contact with airborne fomites which adhere to nearby surfaces. That helps explain why 81 doctors, nurses and other healthcare workers have died in West Africa to date. These courageous healthcare providers use careful CDC-level barrier precautions such as gowns, gloves, and head cover, but it appears they have inadequate respiratory and eye protection. Dr. Michael V. Callahan, an infectious disease specialist at Massachusetts General Hospital who has worked in Africa during Ebola outbreaks said that minimum CDC level precautions
“led to the infection of my nurses and physician co-workers who came in contact with body fluids.”

Currently the CDC advises healthcare workers to use goggles and simple face masks for respiratory and eye protection, and a fitted N-95 mask during aerosol-generating medical procedures. Since so many doctors and nurses are dying in West Africa, it is clear that this level of protection is inadequate. Full face respirators with P-100 (HEPA) replacement filters would provide greater airway and eye protection, and I believe this would save the lives of many doctors, nurses, and others who come into close contact with, or in proximity to, Ebola victims.

Common sense tells you if 10 out of a 100 escape you have still slowed it down.

How ever the quarantines happening in Liberia are a joke even the guards have no protection.

I can not help but think once people start seeing the body's pile up they will get more creative throwing urine in bottles and poo

And on a bigger scale i can see a country intentionally infecting other country's if they are outright quarantined and its government starts to get desperate.

in the hope it will remove restrictions and have a lot more money thrown at the problem and more aid and so on.

Or even simple revenge.

In the USA there have been 68 Ebola scares. I don't think they were all tested though as the CDC is the one that says whether or not they are given the Ebola test. We are told these cases are all negative or not Ebola.

Here is a website that keeps up with the Ebola virus outbreak nearly daily:

www.internationalsos.com...

In parts of Liberia, WHO said, a phenomenon is occurring that has never before been seen in an Ebola outbreak. As soon as a new treatment facility is opened, it is immediately filled with patients, many of whom were not previously identified.

For example in Monrovia, it said, an Ebola treatment centre with 20 beds, which opened last week, was immediately overwhelmed with more than 70 patients.

“This phenomenon strongly suggests the existence of an invisible caseload of patients who are not being detected by the surveillance system,” the UN health agency said. - See more at: indiablooms.com... sh.tQNuDvd6.dpuf

This indicates that the number of infected could be at least three times what they think they are dealing with.

Source: indiablooms.com...

My thought is that if the USA/Canada/UK, etc... doesn't have an Ebola case yet, it is only a matter of time until there is.

a reply to: joho99

For your review.

Ebola outbreak: Why Liberia's quarantine in West Point slum will fail

A relic of the Middle Ages, quarantines do more harm than good

Last week, military personnel set up a barricade around the West Point slum in Liberia, but medical experts say there's no proof the medieval measure is effective.

Medical experts say that mass quarantine is rarely if ever effective in stemming the spread of a contagion like Ebola, and the move by Liberia to cordon off a sprawling slum is likely to do more harm than good.

"It's a measure that basically goes back to the Middle Ages. It's a reflection really of ignorance and panic," said Dr. Richard Schabas, formerly chief medical officer for Ontario and now in that role in Hastings and Prince Edward counties.

"Mass quarantine of this kind really has no place at all in disease control."

The concept of quarantine "has an intuitive appeal to a layperson, and leaders of these countries are lay people," adds Dr. William Schaffner, a Vanderbilt University professor of preventive medicine.

"But the practical aspects of implementation are very substantial and there aren't any data that would tell you securely that this works."

originally posted by: soficrow
a reply to: joho99

For your review.

Ebola outbreak: Why Liberia's quarantine in West Point slum will fail

A relic of the Middle Ages, quarantines do more harm than good

Last week, military personnel set up a barricade around the West Point slum in Liberia, but medical experts say there's no proof the medieval measure is effective.

Medical experts say that mass quarantine is rarely if ever effective in stemming the spread of a contagion like Ebola, and the move by Liberia to cordon off a sprawling slum is likely to do more harm than good.

"It's a measure that basically goes back to the Middle Ages. It's a reflection really of ignorance and panic," said Dr. Richard Schabas, formerly chief medical officer for Ontario and now in that role in Hastings and Prince Edward counties.

"Mass quarantine of this kind really has no place at all in disease control."

The concept of quarantine "has an intuitive appeal to a layperson, and leaders of these countries are lay people," adds Dr. William Schaffner, a Vanderbilt University professor of preventive medicine.

"But the practical aspects of implementation are very substantial and there aren't any data that would tell you securely that this works."

That means nothing in any field i can find experts for and against anything.

whats better 100 people running around with it or just the 10 who escape?
what buys you more time?

originally posted by: joho99

originally posted by: soficrow
a reply to: joho99

For your review.

Ebola outbreak: Why Liberia's quarantine in West Point slum will fail

A relic of the Middle Ages, quarantines do more harm than good

Last week, military personnel set up a barricade around the West Point slum in Liberia, but medical experts say there's no proof the medieval measure is effective.

Medical experts say that mass quarantine is rarely if ever effective in stemming the spread of a contagion like Ebola, and the move by Liberia to cordon off a sprawling slum is likely to do more harm than good.

"It's a measure that basically goes back to the Middle Ages. It's a reflection really of ignorance and panic," said Dr. Richard Schabas, formerly chief medical officer for Ontario and now in that role in Hastings and Prince Edward counties.

"Mass quarantine of this kind really has no place at all in disease control."

The concept of quarantine "has an intuitive appeal to a layperson, and leaders of these countries are lay people," adds Dr. William Schaffner, a Vanderbilt University professor of preventive medicine.

"But the practical aspects of implementation are very substantial and there aren't any data that would tell you securely that this works."

That means nothing in any field i can find experts for and against anything.

whats better 100 people running around with it or just the 10 who escape?
what buys you more time?

I know it's counter-intuitive, but it just doesn't work that way - and you won't find (m)any real "experts" recommending the kinds of quarantine happening now.

In any event, this epidemic has been "raging" since JANUARY - in regions with international mining operations staffed by people who travel all over the world. So if it was going to get out of Africa, trust me, it's already out.

The barn door has been open for 8 full months.

Outbreak in West Africa

An Ebola epidemic that has been sweeping through West Africa since January has proven to be the most devastating single outbreak of the disease in history.

fyi - quarantine has been well studied, it's well-known when and if it will work - and it's well-established that mass quarantine does not work. Worse, quarantine creates far bigger problems - like starvation and death from other diseases in quarantined populations.

Japan: Quarantine At Ports Ineffective Against Pandemic Flu

For every person identified, and quarantined, by port authorities - researchers estimate 14 others infected by the virus entered undetected.

1) quarantine has been historically used to discriminate against minorities;
2) studies demonstrate that mass quarantine is ineffective;
3) a large scale quarantine would be difficult to implement.

Dr. Schabas stresses that isolation — the act of segregating a person showing symptoms of the disease — is key to containing infections.

But he argues there is no scientific proof that a quarantine — separating an entire category of people on the assumption they may be incubating the disease — is effective in zoonotic diseases (that can be transmitted between species) like Ebola.

....for a quarantine to be useful, it has to make sure people comply with quarantine conditions, and the infectious disease must be transmissible when patients don't yet show symptoms. Neither SARS nor Ebola is transmissible when a patient is asymptomatic.

....isolating a small group of unhealthy people with a large group of healthy residents can cause more harm than good if they don't get access to food, water and medical care — all of which are in increasingly short supply as groups like Doctors Without Borders have pointed out.

"Quarantining a large area like West Point in the way that it's done can contribute to the death rate because you're essentially isolating healthy and unhealthy people, and not implementing what's more important — good public health measures," said Martin.

....Though clean water, food, education and good medical care give the "biggest bang for the buck," it's those basic necessities that the poorest countries lack, says Dr. Martin.

That's led them to desperately try to stem the contagion through other means.

"In Liberia, at the present time, they have more soldiers than they have doctors," observes Dr. Schaffner. "So they're using the resources that they have in the hopes that it will do some good."

Tell you with that sort of advice it makes me curious if Dr. William Schaffner was one of the hundreds in Texas in 2006 attending Dr. Eric R. Pianka's presentation lol

a reply to: joho99

Quarantines would forward Pianka's agenda - and allow TPTB to choose the populations to be exterminated.

Once public health workers identify someone with this disease, Fair says, they have to find everyone else who might have gotten exposed through contact with that person. And that hasn't been easy.

Even if someone tests positive for Ebola, he says, public health workers may return and find that the person has simply disappeared.

health.wusf.usf.edu...


It would be interesting to know how many of the people who have officially tested positive are in a controlled environment and how many are just wandering around.

originally posted by: joho99
It would be interesting to know how many of the people who have officially tested positive are in a controlled environment and how many are just wandering around.

lol. It would be more interesting to know how many suspected cases have actually been tested. Not many, imho.

originally posted by: soficrow

originally posted by: joho99
It would be interesting to know how many of the people who have officially tested positive are in a controlled environment and how many are just wandering around.

lol. It would be more interesting to know how many suspected cases have actually been tested. Not many, imho.

Both numbers would be interesting to know for sure.

a reply to: joho99

True. But the realities are sobering - there's no 'rapid test' for Ebola; cases are 'suspected' when symptoms appear and the disease is already transmissible (plus, Ebola symptoms might be mistaken for Lassa, malaria or any one of a number of other tropical diseases in the absence of an acknowledged outbreak or epidemic); public hospitals are few and far between in West Africa, maybe 5 in all of Sierra Leone, Guinea and Liberia combined; most patients are far from any kind of medical care; and the list goes on.

In truth, no one is "tracing contacts" - and no, I do not believe the bs coming out of Nigeria either. Despite what the esteemed Dr. William Schaffner might say.

originally posted by: soficrow
a reply to: joho99

Quarantines would forward Pianka's agenda - and allow TPTB to choose the populations to be exterminated.

When you want 90% of the world population removed you do not need to be that picky.
It would be more about protecting the 10%

originally posted by: soficrow
a reply to: joho99

True. But the realities are sobering - there's no 'rapid test' for Ebola; cases are 'suspected' when symptoms appear and the disease is already transmissible (plus, Ebola symptoms might be mistaken for Lassa, malaria or any one of a number of other tropical diseases in the absence of an acknowledged outbreak or epidemic); public hospitals are few and far between in West Africa, maybe 5 in all of Sierra Leone, Guinea and Liberia combined; most patients are far from any kind of medical care; and the list goes on.

In truth, no one is "tracing contacts" - and no, I do not believe the bs coming out of Nigeria either. Despite what the esteemed Dr. William Schaffner might say.

Time should tell on Nigeria
To be honest i do not believe the bs of anyone in charge because they are in the "Don't Panic" mode

originally posted by: joho99

originally posted by: soficrow
a reply to: joho99

Quarantines would forward Pianka's agenda - and allow TPTB to choose the populations to be exterminated.

When you want 90% of the world population removed you do not need to be that picky.
It would be more about protecting the 10%

I can't argue with that. But that likely explains why "they" want a great big pool of guinea pigs desperate to be experimented upon. (Planning for the future, as in it ain't happenin' now.)



[sigh]

originally posted by: soficrow

originally posted by: joho99

originally posted by: soficrow
a reply to: joho99

Quarantines would forward Pianka's agenda - and allow TPTB to choose the populations to be exterminated.

When you want 90% of the world population removed you do not need to be that picky.
It would be more about protecting the 10%

I can't argue with that. But that likely explains why "they" want a great big pool of guinea pigs desperate to be experimented upon. (Planning for the future, as in it ain't happenin' now.)



[sigh]

I do know that if all this is by design then quarantine will 100% not work ever.
Since you would have a outside influence helping the virus along starting new flare ups regardless of quarantine.
And giving counter productive advice.

Lets hope it is just nature playing up.