4.8 earthquake rocks US Yellowstone National Park

violet

Lil Drummerboy
AS i had stated in the original yellowstone thread..
the USGS said the last time the uplift and mag was of this concern was 1980
Also when Mt St Helens blew its top..

Interesting, are we keeping an eye on St. Helens?

I think if Helen started to grumble,. we would know it right away..
havent heard a thing

reply to post by BO XIAN


I was just a kid with Mt St Helens so I don't recall the sound or even what time of day it was but I do remember it was day because I recall the look of snow falling (was ash), and how it got dark really fast. I was in Western Montana that year. There was a lot of ash (I even collected some to give to relatives in Cali). It seemed like several inches at least as there was a big effort to figure out what to do with it all before it rained. If yellowstone went for our locations I imagine roofs would collapse from the weight of the ash. Of course it all depends on how much is ejected and the force behind it. I don't think anyone knows the potential reach.

For those who aren't sure if they would tell us if it were going to erupt Jessie Ventura is on tomorrow so maybe a question for him. I personally think they would tell people. I trust them on this entirely because people like Bob Smith and all those under him have families too - they wouldn't purposefully keep that from others. They would be careful with raising the alert level - likely have a protocol in place, but I have no doubt they would if it was warranted.

lol, I just laugh at the assertions that USGS or UoU scientists would hide an impending eruption. ALL OF THE DATA THEY HAVE IS FRICKEN PUBLIC!!!! It's on their sites!

So you have two choices: learn how to read and interpret this data best you can, or TRUST that they know what the hell they're talking about! In fact, no one, not even me, is more concerned about an eruption at YS than THEY are. I mean look at this- they had a team out there near the epicenter right away, on a Sunday. What does THAT tell you? Yeah, they care. A lot. More than you. Many of them have devoted their entire lives to it.

Could it blindside us and pull a St. Helens? Well actually, Helens didn't blindside the scientists much at all. The explosion from the side is what they weren't expecting- cause that is rare. But they knew just from the uplift and seismicity that it was ready. I've seen several documentaries on it.

I have every confidence at this point that if there really was a threat, even a minor one at YS, they'd raise the alert level and clear the park- despite the political pressure to keep it open.

reply to post by Dianec


I don't think you could hide something like an impending eruption at Yellowstone. What I'd be more concerned about is that they might not know enough about it to have good warning before it's too late. There was some speculation floating around for a while that it might be different enough to not give exactly the same warning indicators of impending eruption making it somewhat more difficult than a regular volcano.

reply to post by gortex


It looks like it clipped the reader as well - in other words, the seismograph was not built to get that large of a reading, check out how the waveforms are clipped at the top - the same thing happens in audio work.

OK...been watching/listening to the BBC link I posted...can somebody confirm the following please?.... 7.5 in 1959, 6.0 1975.....no eruption.....so.....why are we worrying about this one? My argument is...it's not the size of quake that counts...it's the last straw that ruptures the camels back.

True....you know I respect and admire your work with volcanoes...but when it comes to the politics....I'm not so sure my friend that they would tell us.....it's far to big a logistical problem if she blows big style to evacuate the immediate territory....

Rainbows
Jane

reply to post by TrueAmerican


I agree, that sounds pretty accurate. I think scientists can get really into their jobs

darkbake
It looks like it clipped the reader as well - in other words, the seismograph was not built to get that large of a reading, check out how the waveforms are clipped at the top - the same thing happens in audio work.

lol. Well yeah, seeing as I've run all sorts of audio programs I know exactly what you're talking about. But one thing you should understand is that clip points for waveforms on webicorders are adjustable. In the software that most agencies use there is the ability to set clipping points- and it is done mostly for a cleaner display of the webicorder. The truth is that a seismometer is where the clipping occurs if the earthquake exceeds its maximum count capacity- not in the software used to interpret and display the seismometer's data. Some software can determine if a seismometer clipped, and some can't. But the best way is to look at the station's instrument parameters. Once clipped is determined, scientists usually look to the closest, non-clipped stations for data to make calculations.

reply to post by TrueAmerican


i suppose your right and i don't have a bad feeling about this quake so im not worried... was really just a question in my mind because of what I wrote to you about in u2u...

reply to post by ketsuko


Yellowstone could erupt without any warning but is it really that unique? It is a volcano - just a different type (no top to it - putting it simply). I think it would still give the same signs as Mt St Helens did - gasses, swarms, new steam vents. The thing that I'm sure they watch for is the frog in boiling water scenario. In fact, I know they do. To do this they look at things over time to note trends. There isn't a whole lot of history of close observations but at least there is a history, and this is all they do - day in and day out - study this thing.

We know there was a new steam vent a year or two ago (I don't remember exactly when it popped up). Is it communicating the same stuff St Helens did - but over a longer stretch of time - yes and no. There are no gas increases I've heard of. Only 1 new steam vent for that whole area (I believe it is just one). Swarms are intermittent but are they getting more powerful or prolonged? They don't know because they need a few more to see. In spite of that - a volcano is a volcano and they watch every tiny hiccup of that thing. I trust it speaks the same language as say, a strata volcano - just is more grumbly In between explosions.

reply to post by Dianec


If somebody starts talking harmonic tremors...then I'll start worrying. And, IMHO..proportionately....a super is going to behave very differently to a volcanic eruption...Krakatoa is the only 'recorded' idea of any sorts of what to expect and that was just on survivors reports....so all the technology we have are only an assistance, a guide if you will. If we ever survive a super eruption....then, and only then, will our technology be calibrated correctly.

Rainbows
Jane

reply to post by angelchemuel


They absolutely would tell us. When Mt St Helens was acting up scientists had to argue with the State to close the area off - and did not stop persisting until it was done. They saved countless lives because of that insistence. A lot was learned from that - and respect was earned. Scientists would not be quiet about such a thing - ever. And government agencies would likely not fight it because they are not the experts. Trying to do so would serve nothing as scientists would simply go to the media if the alert level wasn't raised. Also - we would all likely know before it even hit orange or red. As another said herein - one can learn to read the data and log onto real time at the observatory if they truly don't trust.

I would say don't read or listen to those sites that say they wouldn't warn people. I saw one that said they were hiding data from the public. I left the site immediately because it is easy to get caught up in that stuff when you don't understand the data yourself (and I don't understand it).

reply to post by Dianec


I don't know if I agree with you on that one Diane.....look at the case of the seismologists jailed in Italy for example. When we are looking at devastation (seems so inadequate a word) on the scale of a super.......we have never experienced anything like this.....I really do doubt they woulf fore warn us. Like I said in all probability only the people 'in the know' would try and warn at least their nearest and dearest. We'll find out soon enough, but we wont be here arguing the toss either way........sadly

Rainbows
Jane

reply to post by Dianec


Raising the alert level is at the sole discretion of scientists, and is usually done with a consensus among them. At a place like Yellowstone, probably even more so- but I imagine the final decision on that rests with Mr. Lowenstern- the scientist-in-charge. The government is at their mercy too- not the other way around.

And that isn't too hard. I mean hell, if you have increased gas emissions, increased and high ground inflation rates, intense seismicity and tremor with hypocenters that get more shallow by the minute, geysers freaking out, water and ground temperatures over the top- then what scientist is going to say no? It's going to take a lot of those symptoms before they will ever raise it. Most if not all scientists are going to agree at that point it's time to go to yellow or orange alert level- and alert authorities and the public. I think Long Valley taught them a lesson well in the 80's-90's that these monsters pack a vicious bark but no bite- not until all the signs are there at once.

The AVO raised the alert level to yellow for Iliamna when it started acting up with seismicity well above background levels, but it never erupted. Then again, they could, without it affecting much of anyone. Yellowstone is a whole other matter. That DOES affect A LOT of people if they close the park.

I'll tell yas this though- if they ever do raise it in our lifetimes- you'd better get the hell out and go east- as far as your little rumps can take you.

On a side note does anybody know what going on north of Crescent, Oklahoma
Any chance it related

4.5 - 20km N of Crescent, Oklahoma
2014-03-30 09:09:59 UTC-05:003.8 km

4.3 - 21km N of Crescent, Oklahoma
2014-03-30 01:51:56 UTC-05:005.0 km

4.3 - 20km N of Crescent, Oklahoma
2014-03-30 03:42:36 UTC-05:005.0 km

3.7 - 4km E of Choctaw, Oklahoma
2014-03-29 22:08:31 UTC-05:006.1 km

3.6 - 20km NNW of Crescent, Oklahoma
2014-03-30 03:10:31 UTC-05:003.2 km

3.5 - 21km N of Crescent, Oklahoma
2014-03-30 01:37:44 UTC-05:004.3 km

3.5 - 21km N of Crescent, Oklahoma
2014-03-30 03:07:05 UTC-05:006.0 km

3.5 - 21km N of Crescent, Oklahoma
2014-03-29 22:55:33 UTC-05:005.0 km

reply to post by angelchemuel


I guess the fact that they live and study right by the volcano convinces me somewhat too. I'm more concerned with what their protocol is for raising it. For the 2008/10 swarm it wasn't raised so I wonder what it would take since they don't know. What I would hate to see - this thing goes off and they are blamed for keeping it from people. That would be tragic since the most likely explanation would be they simply didn't see an impending eruption. If you read some of Bob Smith's work he is open about his concerns when they arise and doesn't sugar coat things.

Edit - post above tells us how they decide to raise to yellow or above.

reply to post by Dianec


And do you think when Yellowstone blows there will be anybody around who will bring the scientists that were close enough to the eruption to bring them to task and try and hold them accountable?

Rainbows
Jane

reply to post by TrueAmerican


Thanks for that info and rainbows can disregard my question in the previous post. I've always wondered how they decide but how you put it makes it abundantly clear (it was humerous to read so thanks for that - lighten the thread up a bit).

reply to post by angelchemuel


Yes - there will be people around. Not the scientists but they will go down in the history books so what we think of them will matter.

reply to post by TrueAmerican


Wrong direction.... west IMHO if you're in the States.....

Rainbows
Jane