Ebola Mutating: Sustained H2H Transmission

The research was done at Kenema Government Hospital in Sierra Leone, at the laboratory where USAMRIID was working with Corgenix Corporation and other members of the Viral Hemorrhagic fever Consortium (VHFC). Five of the researchers caught Ebola and died.

The genetic analysis shows that after one single animal-to-human introduction of the Ebola virus in December 2013, ALL subsequent transmission has been human-to-human. Telling people not to eat bushmeat is NOT the "best messaging," says lead researcher Sabeti, "people are the source of the outbreak."

Now the Ebola virus is "mutating twice as fast as it did in the past when it lived in an animal “reservoir,”" says researcher and virologist Robert Garry. "The longer this virus is allowed to propagate human to human, the more it is going to adapt," he warns. ....So those who question the need to help stop this West African Ebola epidemic need to take heed.

The researchers, previously committed to secrecy and confidentiality - to profit, protecting Intellectual Property Rights and respecting corporate and military Confidentiality Agreements - now have released their sequencing information into the public domain as 'Open Access" scientific information. They are calling for the global scientific community to participate in crowd-sourcing

Genomic sequencing reveals mutations, insights into 2014 Ebola outbreak

To accelerate response efforts, the research team released the full-length sequences on National Center for Biotechnology Information’s (NCBI’s) DNA sequence database in advance of publication, making these data available to the global scientific community.

“By making the data immediately available to the community, we hope to accelerate response efforts,” said co-senior author Pardis Sabeti, a senior associate member at the Broad Institute and an associate professor at Harvard University. “Upon releasing our first batch of Ebola sequences in June, some of the world’s leading epidemic specialists contacted us, and many of them are now also actively working on the data. We were honored and encouraged. A spirit of international and multidisciplinary collaboration is needed to quickly shed light on the ongoing outbreak.”

The action of releasing what's normally "secret" information protected by Intellectual Property law represents an astounding paradigm shift. This is a game changer. And anyone who knows anything will recognize this actions means the situation is desperately dire.

Where Did Ebola Come From? Likely One Person, Gene Study Finds

........the Ebola virus strain in West Africa appears to be mutating twice as fast as it did in the past when it lived in an animal “reservoir,” probably a bat.

“It’s going to change,” Garry said. “A human being is not a bat. The longer this virus is allowed to propagate human to human, the more it is going to adapt.”

Genomic surveillance elucidates Ebola virus origin and transmission during the 2014 outbreak

....We observed a rapid accumulation of interhost and intrahost genetic variation, allowing us to characterize patterns of viral transmission over the initial weeks of the epidemic. This West African variant likely diverged from Middle African lineages ~2004, crossed from Guinea to Sierra Leone in May 2014, and has exhibited sustained human-to-human transmission subsequently, with no evidence of additional zoonotic sources. Since many of the mutations alter protein sequences and other biologically meaningful targets, they should be monitored for impact on diagnostics, vaccines, and therapies critical to outbreak response.

Yay! Next up....airborne mutation, unless of course that has already happened and we just are not being told about it. Get ready for this to hit in a large city near you!

Thanks for staying on top of this. Along the same lines I did read an article posted on Drudge that said the researchers believe the virus has mutated 38 times since their guesstimated ground zero area in Zaire.. I expect this next month we will see just how big of a foothold it has established itself and where it is likely to continue to spread.. I also read many of the international airlines have canceled their flights to certain countries in Africa.. We will see if it was to little to late... There were dogs eating the dead from shallow graves... the dogs supposedly will not get the virus and die but can and will be possible carriers.. What a horrible disease and if the dogs become carriers then who knows where it will spread to ?

Uh-oh...

originally posted by: Vasa Croe
Yay! Next up....airborne mutation, unless of course that has already happened and we just are not being told about it. Get ready for this to hit in a large city near you!

S& ...But. Doctors Without Borders (MSF) says Ebola is NOT airborne - and I trust them almost absolutely. Yes, research has shown inefficient airborne spread between other mammals but not humans. ....True though, mutation to airborne remains a possibility while H2H transmission continues in West Africa. ...One reason why all the world's resources should be brought to bear to stop it there. (MSF) has warned that it had reached the limits of what its teams can do, and has called for a coordinated international effort to help fight the epidemic.

fyi -

Science Magazine reports that the epidemic is doubling exponentially with a doubling period of 34.8 days.

1. Based on 3,069 reported cases (at August 26, 2014), the case total will reach 196,416 within about 6 months, and up to 12,570,624 cases after a year.

2. The WHO estimates unreported cases bring the total to 12,000 cases, which means cases would rise to 384,000 cases with in 6 months and 24,576,000 cases after a year.

3. Most likely the real case rate is much higher. There are no accessible hospitals or clinics for most West Africans - no one to test and diagnose, and no one to report new cases. Realistically, the actual case total is probably closer to 20,000 already. If that's true, then by 6 months the case total will be 640,000 and by one year - 40,960,000 cases.

If the transmission rate does not speed up.

As of 26 August 2014, the cumulative number of cases attributed to EVD in the four countries stands at 3069, including 1552 deaths.

It is the largest known EVD outbreak and is expanding exponentially with a doubling period of 34.8 days (Fig. 1B).

Better not tell ISIS...

Them bastards be trippin!

a reply to: Vasa Croe
Not even sure it needs to be airborne i notice a lot of people live under the illusion we are clean and our environment is sterile so we are safe.

I think it is something like 30% of people do not even bother to wash hands.

they have done tests on plenty of things we touch in public and found traces of feces and urine.

originally posted by: 727Sky
Thanks for staying on top of this. ....I also read many of the international airlines have canceled their flights to certain countries in Africa.. We will see if it was to little to late...

You're welcome. S&

But - The 'too little too late' happened when resources were not sent to the original outbreak(s) originating from Kenema Government Hospital in Sierra Leone, and maybe Irrua Teaching Hospital and University of Lagos in Nigeria. You know - back when all the "experts" were saying "Ebola always burns itself out and never spreads, so it's not really a problem." Back then. When nobody would listen to Doctors Without Borders (MSF) when they were begging for help. ...They're still begging btw.

Also fyi - Cancelling flights just keeps needed resources out of West Africa - and quarantine does NOT work in this kind of situation. It's way past that. ....and it won't work to try and quarantine the entire continent either.

In order to "fix" this - the world has to bring all its resources to bear in West Africa. Now.

a reply to: soficrow

How did they come up with an average case fatality rate of 78%?

originally posted by: joho99
a reply to: soficrow

How did they come up with an average case fatality rate of 78%?

??? Don't know where you got that. Current figures show about 47%.

I can't even keep my kids quarantined in their room when they have a cold. Unless people self quarantine it just makes them miserable.

It seems the people were right, leave their eating habits alone... I'm still not eating a bat.

a reply to: soficrow
www.sciencemag.org...

Ebola virus (EBOV; formerly Zaire ebolavirus), one of five ebolaviruses, is a lethal human pathogen, causing Ebola virus disease (EVD) with an average case fatality rate of 78%

Or did i read it wrong?

a reply to: soficrow

I hope w/ the sickness in the air and many terror threats that humanity doesn't begin to require number attachment, that shares your global citizenship affiliation and health information, which allows access or not into certain places depending on credentials associated w/ number system. As tracking method is a reason to do such. Would the terrorist act in such ways if they knew they were instigating a marking tracking system that would totally override their interest 1 wonders...

1 wishes us all the best in these trying TESTing times...

originally posted by: soficrow
The action of releasing what's normally "secret" information protected by Intellectual Property law represents an astounding paradigm shift. This is a game changer. And anyone who knows anything will recognize this actions means the situation is desperately dire.

It is most definitely a shift in paradigm. One that has been bubbling to the surface for a while.

While this situation is dire, it is not this specific scenario that has spurred this on. It was a contributing factor, but look at this as a test run of sorts. A point in space in time that is to determine the future of humanity. The severity of this situation should ensure greater participation, which has historically been a major stumbling block.

Look for more 'normally "secret" information protected by IP laws' to be crowdsourced in the near future. The next step is to implement a framework that provides compensation for participation on a universal scale (not just viral research).

And its still spreading:

(CNN) -- The West African country of Senegal has confirmed its first Ebola case one week after closing its borders with Guinea over fears that the deadly outbreak could spread, the Senegalese Press Agency reported Friday.

Senegal's health minister, Awa Marie Coll Seck, confirmed that a 21-year-old university student from Guinea was infected with the Ebola virus and placed in quarantine in the Fann Hospital in Dakar, the news agency reported.

Officials in Guinea alerted Senegal on August 27 after losing track of the young man, the agency reported.

cnn

a reply to: joho99

Ah. That's standard 'old' Zaire. One of the many ways this ZEBOV epidemic is different is that it has a fatality rate around 52% (not 47% as I said earlier), depending on the location. Or timing? Maybe it's becoming less fatal?

The overall fatality rate is 52%, the WHO said, ranging from 42% in Sierra Leone to 66% in Guinea.

originally posted by: Serdgiam

originally posted by: soficrow
The action of releasing what's normally "secret" information protected by Intellectual Property law represents an astounding paradigm shift. This is a game changer. And anyone who knows anything will recognize this actions means the situation is desperately dire.

It is most definitely a shift in paradigm. One that has been bubbling to the surface for a while.

While this situation is dire, it is not this specific scenario that has spurred this on. .....

The push for 'Open Access' to scientific information is an old one, sure, and I've done my share over the past decade to promote it. But I doubt this research would have opened up to the global community unless the current situation pretty much demanded it. It is a real sign of the current desperate need.

originally posted by: soficrow
The push for 'Open Access' to scientific information is an old one, sure, and I've done my share over the past decade to promote it. But I doubt this research would have opened up to the global community unless the current situation pretty much demanded it. It is a real sign of the current desperate need.

Perhaps I wasn't clear, I was expanding the narrative and not denying it.

"Never let a serious crisis go to waste" is a phrase that is generally associated with actions that are to the detriment of the people. Frequently, that is exactly the case. But, it can also refer to actions that are beneficial to the people. It all depends on how those in power use it.

Now that it is open source, we can come together to solve the problem instead of the 'throw money at it' tactic. The latter leads to easy money that can be obfuscated and hidden easily, as well as limiting it to an insular group of scientists that are probably highly compartmentalized to begin with.

Perhaps there is a battle within the 'oligarchy' on how to use these tools from here on out. And, ideally, phase many of them out.

Oh, and thanks for advocating for 'open access' for these years!

originally posted by: soficrow
a reply to: joho99

Ah. That's standard 'old' Zaire. One of the many ways this ZEBOV epidemic is different is that it has a fatality rate around 52% (not 47% as I said earlier), depending on the location. Or timing? Maybe it's becoming less fatal?

The overall fatality rate is 52%, the WHO said, ranging from 42% in Sierra Leone to 66% in Guinea.

Hmmm..well that makes me wonder if it is going to infect and mutate to the point that it becomes more like a "parasitic" virus that thrives on the host but wants to keep the host alive. Kind of like a bacterial infection. Maybe it is mutating so it does NOT kill the host but has to kill multiple hosts during the mutation period to get it correct.

Now lets talk about zombies.....

a reply to: soficrow

Many of my earliest posts on this topic have been about the dangers of this virus poses once the mutations begin to take effect.

Of the many possibilities is a trade-off between lethality and ease of transmission:

The trade-off hypothesis suggests that there is a trade off between how long the virus or other pathogen is able to persist in its host and the rate at which the virus or other pathogen can be transmitted. The trade off hypothesis suggests that virulence will evolve to a level at which virulence and transmission is balanced so as to maximize the spread of the virus.

Virulence Evolution

There is evidence that the hypothesis is correct:

Viral lines with the higher enforced rate of infectious transmission evolved higher virulence and higher rates of virus production. These results support the trade-off model for the evolution of virulence.

Virulence evolution in a virus obeys a trade-off.

If this virus behaves like ever other virus in history, the longer the outbreak continues, the more evolved the virus will become. It will seek any way possible to extend its ability to exist, including trading some of it's ability to kill it's host with ease of transmission.

Airborne is not the only possible mutation which would increase the transmission rate, there is also indirect contact:

Following the introduction of Ebola virus in the human population through animal-to-human transmission, person-to-person transmission by direct contact bodily fluids/secretions of infected persons is considered the principal mode of transmission. Indirect contact with environment and fomites soiled with contaminated bodily fluids (e.g. needles) may also occur. Airborne transmission has not been documented during previous EVD outbreaks.

There is no risk of transmission during the incubation period.

Ebola virus disease (EVD), implications of introduction in the Americas

That's another possible mutation, transmission prior to onset of symptoms, that would be very dangerous.