Human extinction within 100 years warns scientist

17 November 2004
By JOHN HENZELL

A top New Zealand researcher is using a prestigious award ceremony in Christchurch to warn that humans face extinction by the end of the century.

Professor Peter Barrett will be presented with the Marsden Medal tonight for his 40-year contribution to Antarctic research, latterly focusing on climate change.

The director of Victoria University's Antarctic Research Centre expects to use his acceptance speech to warn climate change was a major threat to the planet.

"After 40 years, I'm part of a huge community of scientists who have become alarmed with our discovery, that we know from our knowledge of the ancient past, that if we continue our present growth path, we are facing extinction," Barrett said. "Not in millions of years, or even millennia, but by the end of this century."

Barrett won the award � designed to mark lifetime achievement in the sciences � for his research into Antarctica, which began with helping prove New Zealand was once part of the Gondwanaland supercontinent.

He then changed disciplines, to predicting the impact of climate change. The result was a body of research on Antarctic ice sheets "which to our surprise is becoming increasingly relevant to the world as a consequence of global warming".

Barrett's warning underlines comments he made last year that even the Kyoto Protocol on global warming would not be enough to avert a climate disaster. The United States and Australia have refused to adopt Kyoto protocol measures.

"Research on the past Antarctic climate has an ominous warning for the future ..." he said.

"We need an international commitment to an effective solution, if we are to survive the worst consequences of this grandest of all human experiments."


Found this interesting thought you would also

Polar Bear in the Antarctic


www.stuff.co.nz...

[edit on 21-11-2004 by Polar Bear]

I heard it was 50 years. Now its 100. but damn... i'd rather see it.

Oh well in 50-100 years people will be saying the exact same thing.

Well for one thing can you please post a link and not just cut and past pls. Secondly, I would really like to see what this guys data is to base his baseless assumption that current growth rates are unsustainable. There are quite a number of wildcards that could come up in the next 100 years(and quite a few of em probably) that will reduce the problem. Technology, as it stands today is progressing rapidly. We already see the seeds of the future Hydrogen economy taking shape in place like Califonia, Iceland, Germany and my home town of Toronto. The process of change may be going too slow for some people, but its happening, the waiting is almost over. These next 20 years might seem like an eternity and Technologically it is, but I think in 2024 we all will be looking back and saying "Phew" good thing we wised up just in time.

Now I may seem overly optimistic, but alot of good things in science have been happening lately, that will impact the world in ways we cannot imagine today. Think pre 90s before the Net became "cool". I'm not going into detail now, but if you check back up on my previous posts and ATSNN news stories, you will get the idea.

Sard out

The link is there now not that it will help you, you must help yourself. Ya Follow.
For starters the caps are melting and warming at 5 to 7 degree's faster than the rest of the Planet. Do you know why? I do.
Secondly most of the population of the Planet lives on Coastal Plains that will be submerged shortly. Do you know why?
No links Buba

Originally posted by Polar Bear
The link is there now not that it will help you, you must help yourself. Ya Follow.
For starters the caps are melting and warming at 5 to 7 degree's faster than the rest of the Planet. Do you know why? I do.
Secondly most of the population of the Planet lives on Coastal Plains that will be submerged shortly. Do you know why?
No links Buba

That's not true. Even with all ice melted, the coastal plains will not be submerged. The only countries seriously affected will be Bangladesh, Netherlands and some small Pacific islands.
BTW during the jurrasic period there were not ice caps at all and 1000 years in the past the clima was much warmer than today.

[edit on 21-11-2004 by longbow]

Thank you Longbow,

But I must disagree. I can think and know of places I have been in my lifetime where I have noticed dramatic changes and they continue. At a rapid pace. As we speak.
Venice, Alexandria, West Palm Beach, Cape Cod, Prudhoe Bay, Corpus Christi, New Orleans, Baja, Eureka, just to mention a few. You may tell me what occurred 10,000 years ago. And I will tell you what I have seen with my eye's.
In ten years there will be no North Slope to drill on there will be no Polar Bears

Where I live the predictions of three years ago are true. Our average temperatures are 5 to 6 degrees above normal. Our environment is rapidly changing. This is a fact. Only the reasons are obscure. However I have my suspicions.

Bear

I'd be more worried about extinction by the contamination of our DNA by the pharma's - there's more chance of extinction happening that way I believe.

Look at the synthetic estrogen problem - all sorts of sh it happening there to do with y chromo drop, male fish turning into female fish, 60% of male polar bears becoming sterile.

Yes...look to the pharma's, cause in 50 years time, a lot of people are going to be very very pi$$ed!

Originally posted by Polar Bear
Our average temperatures are 5 to 6 degrees above normal.

What do you mean, our average as in "the World's average", or our average as in "the Polar Bear's country average"?

And what degrees are you talking about, Celsius or Fahrenheit?

I would appreciate the clarification.

astoreth,
Point well taken I am a Victim of both Vioxx and Celebrex two Cox 2 inhibitors designed my pharma co's

ArMaP,
Polar Bear average, I am located in Alaska, I deal in Farenhiet degrees at the moment. And for the last two months we have been running 5 to 7 degrees + normal. For us it is frustrating. We are waiting patiently for winter. It will come the question is what will it bring. The theories cover a wide spectrum. From 30' of snow to super low pressure storms to who knows?
In all arena's we are in questionable times. Two things for sure it is interesting as well as exciting on all levels.

Polar Bear

if we lose the polar ice caps what will happen then?most people who are a farmer would know.there crops will be hard to grow.no food no life.the time is a factor 50-100 years. does it matter what time the party stops?this is when we urge worldly governmnets to get together and make peace.for we need every last helping hand we can find.the alarms have already gone off years ago.we laughed about it and said fill her up....

Originally posted by longbow
That's not true. Even with all ice melted, the coastal plains will not be submerged. The only countries seriously affected will be Bangladesh, Netherlands and some small Pacific islands.
BTW during the jurrasic period there were not ice caps at all and 1000 years in the past the clima was much warmer than today.

Actually if big glaciers melt oceans would rise many meters... enough that you would need boat in Manhattan.

Continents were in completely different positions at that time... which affect ocean currents and distributing of heat.
(and for opposite... search with Google using words "snowball earth")


Polar Bear, looks like we're getting that cold here in Finland... last week has been much over 5 Cs colder than what has been normal in last decade.

Here in Portugal we are having temperatures like we usually have in the end of December or in January, I do not have any official numbers, but my estimate is that the average temperature has been some 3� Celsius (+/- 5�F) below the normal average temperature for this month. And we do not had any rain in the last 15 days.

.
Short of a complete nuclear exchange isn't it more likely that there will be a population crash? Possibly below a sustainable level then gradually rising to a sustainable population?

It is hard for me to imagine that all parts of the globe will be affected equally at the same time. Many may die, certainly a few will live.
.

Seriously people human beings will not become extinct from climate change. Remember how good we are at adapting. A very large percentage may perrish I agree with that, definetly over half likely. But you only need to worry if you don't know how to survive in the wild

You know just because there are no more grocery stores or gas stations to go to, doesn't mean that food doesnt exist anymore or that fuel has completely dissapeared. Ive stated in another topic if you are honestly worried about human extinction and the coming climate dramatically damaging the world, brush up on your hunting, fishing, agricultural and construction skills and then learn how to get along with people.

I may actually welcome a change like this for it would begin to loosen the grip that the few have over the many.

Originally posted by DYepes
Seriously people human beings will not become extinct from climate change. Remember how good we are at adapting.

if adapting is renting an apartment, and buying fast food, then i agree, if adapting is surviving in the "wild" then i think we have a problem. i dont disagree with your post, i just think that we have gotten WAY too comfortable with our current surroundings. i say that we might not go extinct, but if this is true, i think that there will be very, very few people alive to tell the tale. if anything, i think the homeless, and the mountain men will be the ones that survive, they are the only ones who know how to survive.

Originally posted by DYepes
Seriously people human beings will not become extinct from climate change. Remember how good we are at adapting. A very large percentage
(snip)

True. And IF the south polar cap melts we would have a continent
with land area almost 1.5 times that of the US to adapt to.
If it was a little warmer half a billion people would be living there now,
instead of 100 years from now.

Hmmm, doesn't water expand when it turns to ice, and therefor less ice would equal lower coastlines?

If things get warmer, people can migrate into uninhabitable zones of the arctic.

In lots of places, a higher ocean level would mean more coastline.

People have these inventions, I think they're called 'dikes and levies' that help keep water out of cities.

We all know how the Venetians were wiped off the map when their city started becoming flooded. Ooops, they just used boats instead of horses.

The world is hardly organized for crop production, but even with our lasse fair attitude toward it, Kansas alone accounts for some 75% of the world's wheat, and the state isn't even packed with farms. Warmer temps mean higher latitudes could support more crops.

World starvation has been predicted for the 70s, 90s, and 2000s, in numerous books, now forgotten because of their failure to account for human innovation.

75% of the world's wheat

Really care to back this up. I just heard the other day that Canada's wheat industry is the biggest. Correct me if I'm wrong(with links plz) but I'm pretty sure Kansas doesn't grow that much wheat.

World starvation has been predicted for the 70s, 90s, and 2000s, in numerous books, now forgotten because of their failure to account for human innovation

Well it depends on what you consider starvation. Theres lots of hungry and starving people in the world and we have enough food production to feed all 6 billion people on the planet, but since they can't afford the shipping costs screw em right?

Human extinction will occurr in the next 8 years. Polar ice will melt, seas will rise, earthquakes will happen. All at the hands of mankind. Nuclear bombs will cause much of this, however, several large asteroids will also help beginning in 2006.