What are the chances that if a nuke...

I've been working with simple probabilities for a long time now in the form of gambling, specifically poker. Very simple maths related to things like, 'what are the chances that I make my flush, and what is the risk associated with that chance in terms of money?'

Probabilities of chance happenings in the future can be predicted based on information known, even if incomplete. The flush will come roughly one in three times, gamble only when there's a big pot.

Considering this concept, what do you think the probability, as a percentage, that if a nuclear weapon were detonated on US soil, that it would have been detonated intentionally by interests that the US government represents?

What leads you to your estimate of probability, or, what information known leads you to the estimate? Think, people THINK! Show your work!

reply to post by Mon1k3r


All other nukes that have been dropped on US soil have been by the US Govt interests. So I'd say 50/50 if it ain't the gov then it's someone else with other interests

reply to post by Mon1k3r


Short answer is that only two groups benefit from a lone event of this type. The first is the US and the second would be anyone attempting to draw us into a conflict and blame it on someone else. So say Israel does this and blames it on Iran but then you negate the entire US security apparatus possibly deterring the event.

The blowback would be too great for any of the other powers to attempt this since we would retaliate so it is not in their interest in my opinion.

So yes the US would be my first suspect in such a scenario.

This is all based on the assumption that pretty much no one other than a govt is going to have access to nukes despite media hype.

reply to post by Mon1k3r

Considering this concept, what do you think the probability, as a percentage, that if a nuclear weapon were detonated on US soil, that it would have been detonated intentionally by interests that the US government represents?

Impossible to calculate.

First, probabilities are calculated from historical data. In this case, there is no historical data in which to calculate this probability. If you used an event such as Hiroshima to answer your question or to say that the next bomb would be dropped by the U.S. government and her interest then based on that one event you could say "Yes, the U.S. will drop a bomb on it's own citizens based on the one historical event in history which was in Japan, but since they don't care about human life this proves without doubt they will be the ones to drop the bomb"...

Even with that though, it's not enough data to be very useful.

Second, whether or not the interests of what the U.S. government represents are the ones responsible for the explosion is impossible to determine as it's entirely conjecture.

Edit:

Here's a simple breakdown of probabilities and how to calculate them:

wwwpub.utdallas.edu...

25% chance of government entities (treason, political motives)

25% of a non government entity (bribery or assault infiltrations, for terrorist reasons)

25% combination of both.


25% foreign attack (distance problems, delivery detection, etc.)




Edit added:
btw, how many possible poker hands are there in a 52 card deck ?

reply to post by OrphanApology


You're right. Too huge to calculate, probably too much information missing, if not hidden and inaccessible.

As far as real probabilities go, all I care is when someone offers me 10 to 1 on a 3 to 1 shot. Money, yo!

But nah, I'm really not good at maths.

Nukes have telltale signatures so if the US used one of its own it would be possible to find out.

reply to post by xuenchen


There are 2,598,960 different hands.

Stealthbomber
Nukes have telltale signatures so if the US used one of its own it would be possible to find out.

reply to post by xuenchen

 

There are 2,598,960 different hands.

Those are 5 card hands in sequence correct?

Same 5 cards give how many different sequences?

divide by 5 for poker hands ? ... 519,792 ?

I don't doubt that number is accurate for total number of 5 card possibilities with a 52 card deck, but in the context of poker, the total number of possibilities isn't relevant. Only the combinations that are relevant are relevant.

Use your numbers for the war, keep them efficient and focused on the task at hand at all times.

reply to post by Mon1k3r

Probabilities of chance happenings in the future can be predicted based on information known, even if incomplete. The flush will come roughly one in three times, gamble only when there's a big pot.

Say what?......a flush one in three times?.....3/1 you'll get a flush?

Interesting......fancy a game of cards?

Not enough info to make a meaningful calculation.

a) You say “on US soil”. Where on US soil? The Nevada desert? New York City? Directly over Mylie Cyrus’ house?
b) How large a device are you talking about? Hiroshima size? Or a 20 megaton thermonuclear device?
c) What is the death toll? Was ground zero selected to destroy active manufacturing/industrial operations? To take out power grids? To contaminate the water supply? To maximize death toll? Etc...
d) Was it detonated on any recognized holy days? Or holidays? Like July 4?
e) Blah, blah, blah...

Anyway, if you’re eluding to a possible 9/11 type conspiracy thing, then I would doubt the government planned it. It would take too many people to pull it off, and therefore it would be impossible to keep it a secret.

Unable to calculate...

Argyll


Say what?......a flush one in three times?.....3/1 you'll get a flush?

Interesting......fancy a game of cards?

Roughly with two cards to come in the game of Hold'em, at a 10 handed table.

reply to post by netbound


I guess we'll just have to wait and see to get the answers to those questions.

reply to post by Mon1k3r

Just joking with you. In this day and age, though, a lot of shocking things happen, and you sometimes do have to wonder.

Good luck at the casino. I used to calculate the odds when playing Keno, and still played it anyway knowing full well I had the short end of the stick. Go figure...

Have fun...

I was a high risk gambler when considering i loved the rullete over the other games.
Still i played it with whatever brains and strategy i had and.... made money odly enough over a 4 year course.

Now on topic.
Considering that the 911 hit of a couple of buildings that were tall enough to reach the sky was propably if not certainly an inside US job, i gather that your point herein is valid food for thought.

My problem no mater how much antinuclear i may be is
how the heck our work is going to rid of the problem altogether.

Whoa...I'd say its on that half gallon of coffee you say you drank t'day.

Rational and logical critical thinking get mulled by the intense stimuli!

Just sayin' after all your threads Ive read....

Unfortunately...there is no patch for quitting caffeine...

Considering this concept, what do you think the probability, as a percentage, that if a nuclear weapon were detonated on US soil, that it would have been detonated intentionally by interests that the US government represents?

Probability as a percentage: 99.999%

My calculations are based on historical false flag events, blatant lies, and media propaganda machinations that have been created over the years to benefit certain (*cough* corporate sponsored governments *cough*) self-interest groups.


Showing my work and calculations as per OP's request:

60's AD: Great fires of Rome = Nero's attempt to justify his building of his fantasized "Neropolis"
1890's: Propaganda in the media of "horrendous" Spanish rule = justification for Spanish-American war
1910's: Creation of Fed Reserve = to enable central banking under the guise of financial security
1910's: Torpedo attack on Lusitania = justification to start WW1
1930's: Bombing of Liutiau railway = justification for Japan to attack and occupy Manchuria
1930's: Reichstag fires = justification for removal of all civil liberties under the guise of "security"
1930's: Operation Himmler = justification for German occupation of Poland
1940's: So-called "surprise" Attack on Pearl Harbour = justification to enter into WW2
1950's: Terrorist attacks in Egypt = Israeli attempt to break apart US growing friendship with Egypt
1950's: CIA paid Iranian bombings = justification to remove a democratically voted in Iranian president
1950's: Italian bombings = justification to further war on communism agenda
1960's: Gulf of Tonkin = justification to go to war with Vietnam
1960's: Operation Northwoods = justification in an attempt to go to war with Cuba
1970's: Senate attempts to pass terrorist laws = ability to go to war with anyone deemed "terrorists"
1990's: Russian bombings = justification to go to war with Chechnya
2000's: Attack on twin towers = justification to go to war with Iraq and Afghanistan
2000's: Mailed Anthrax letters = to instill fear into congress members to pass the Patriot Act
2000's: Hussein's so-called weapons of mass destruction = justification to take out Saddam Hussein
2010's: Propaganda of so-called dictator Gadhafi = justification to remove a democratically voted in ruler
Today: CIA sponsored Al-Qaeda terrorism = need I say more about that one ?!
Today: Iran's supposed building of nuclear bombs = justification to push a war with Iran
Today: Possible future homeland attack = justification to enact martial law and remove all civil liberties in preparation of going to war with "whomever is the flavour of the day" - most likely Iran


Actually, the friggin' list goes on and on and on.... but I'm my fingers are getting tired with all this typing !




See ?

No need for mathematical equations and statistics to come into play for those of us whom are numerically challenged. Just a little rebriefing of history does the job just fine !

reply to post by CranialSponge


Which historical false flag events would these be? And please don't say operation Northwoods..

CranialSponge, you are awesome!

What you just did represents dedication, professionalism, and AT LEAST a gallon of coffee, if not something they have pills for now.

mysterioustranger
Rational and logical critical thinking get mulled by the intense stimuli!

As an attack on the US moves from the possible to the probably, it should be considered that if one were to occur, there is a good probability that it will be an inside job just for the fact that we are actually well defended.

9/11, and the complete lack of defensive military action for hours as rogue planes were known to have been flying in US airspace suggests that the defenses were down deliberately. Otherwise, we, and the leadership who represent us have to admit complete incompetence.

Which one has been owned up to? Neither. What does that say?