I was a believer, now skeptic. Believers are wrong.

reply to post by tanka418


The only thing you did was copy and paste a wiki article and then took credit for it. You have already said there was no difference in the math used. Math is math. You can use simple probability or you can use Bayesian probability in both cases. I referenced 3 articles on how Bayesian is used in poker.

The problems are the same with one big difference. There is no way to check your work. One deals with known outcomes, your problem does not. There are no known outcomes where we find humanoid life on a distant planet.

The only way to interprit this is that it's a guess based non existent data.

You can assign probabilities to unknowns but that is only appropriate when there are known outcomes involved. What you are doing is misinterpreting a statistical technique.

When you play poker, the best players are able to determine other players (unknown) cards to high degree based on other information. This is how the Bayesian stuff can be applied.

However, the outcomes are known. Your outcomes are not known and may never be known. How you are applying this is incorrect.

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wigit

southbeach
reply to post by sled735

 

There is a lot of mind control involved,my friend was on a busy high street with her 3 kids in the daytime and saw a metallic ball like structure hovering above a shop,the people around her started to panic when she pointed it out. The people scurried off staring at the floor and covering their faces from it shouting "don't look at it!"like they were in some fear induced trance.
The whole thing is so complex,no video can ever do it justice.

Great read.

When we had our 2003 sighting it was broad daylight and the street should have been very busy. The school around the corner had just emptied too, but when I ran in my back door to get out the front of the house and into the street there was nobody there, no cars or buses either. Silence, except for my panting and his nibs asking "where the fk have you been?" because I took so long finding my camera. Only when the thing we saw drifted upwards and off did life seem to go back to normal.
And then there was our neighbour with his binos saying "it was just a kid's balloon, I saw the string."
Altogether very strange.

Yeah.My friends sighting happened in the middle of Manchester believe it or not.
I think half of it is to do with giving you questions you can't answer.
I have heard questions that cannot be answered and baffle the mind lead to heightened intelligence.