Could the Break-up of ISON Cause a Destructive Comet (Meteor) Shower on Earth?

Following its Thanksgiving Day brush with solar fire, sundiving Comet ISON is now just a cloud of dust. Among experts, a consensus is building that the comet broke apart shortly before perihelion (closest approach to the sun).

After perihelion, the comet emerges as a diffuse remnant of its former self. No one knows for sure what is inside that fan-shaped cloud. Possibilities include a small remnant nucleus or a "rubble pile" of furiously vaporizing fragments.

Source

Now that ISON has broken up and astronomers don't know for sure what is inside the cloud, could ISONs many broken pieces be pulled toward Earth's gravity like the Shoemaker-Levy comet was pulled toward Jupiter? If that's a possibility, isn't that something we should be concerned about?

No.

reply to post by 1questioner


No, ISON is/was tiny in the grand scheme of things and as far as im aware the debris would never make it past our atmosphere.

reply to post by 1questioner


I am not an astrology buff just a reader of astrology news but from what I have read the trajectory of the remaining mass should still follow the original path and not change. Ison has not behaved as a normal comet in many instances ( not in any doom porn way please folks) growing brighter when it was in a position that it shouldn't have at the time etc. We have added to the data we have collected over the centuries with this one that's for sure.
I am actually very disappointed that it dove because I remember Hale Bopp and I was looking forward to the show. So far Hale Bopp is the all time winner in my lifetime as I live in the northern hemisphere. I think lovejoy was the king down under.

AutumnWitch657
reply to post by 1questioner

 

I am not an astrology buff just a reader of astrology news but from what I have read the trajectory of the remaining mass should still follow the original path and not change. Ison has not behaved as a normal comet in many instances ( not in any doom porn way please folks) growing brighter when it was in a position that it shouldn't have at the time etc. We have added to the data we have collected over the centuries with this one that's for sure.
I am actually very disappointed that it dove because I remember Hale Bopp and I was looking forward to the show. So far Hale Bopp is the all time winner in my lifetime as I live in the northern hemisphere. I think lovejoy was the king down under.

edit on 2-12-2013 by AutumnWitch657 because: (no reason given)

Surely you mean astronomy and not astrology.... ???

We could get some increased shooting stars but I doubt if there would be any fireballs from it. That should be in the end of December to the beginning of January. If there is another meteor shower at the time, it is likely nobody would even notice.

That is what I hope anyway. I like lots of shooting stars.

reply to post by snoopy11


Surely you are correct. Trying to unclog a nasty sink while reading and answering (on a tablet no less ) has my brain split in too many directions. Better watch out for a brain shower from the remaining bits.

BTW my sign is ....DO NOT DISTURB. LOL

Absolutely COULD happen but absolutely WILL NOT happen.

reply to post by 1questioner


You guys are so funny.
Is it a bird , is it a plane , no its a dirty snow ball that didn't melt near the Sun. Why? , the Sun wasn't hot enough.

Pinkorchid
reply to post by 1questioner

 

You guys are so funny.
Is it a bird , is it a plane , no its a dirty snow ball that didn't melt near the Sun. Why? , the Sun wasn't hot enough.

Not all comets are exactly the same. Some comets are dirty snowballs, and some are snowy dirtballs -- and there is a difference.

A snowy dirtball comet (mostly dust with some ice) is more likely to keep more of its nucleus after a close encounter with the sun than a dirty snowball comet (mostly ice with some dust) would. The Sun is more likely to vaporize a comet that is mostly ice than it would a comet that is more dust than ice.

reply to post by 1questioner


Yea, I can't wait to go threw the tail, around Jan. 16th 2014, were all going to get comet dusted, That tail has to be hundreds of millions of miles long.

reply to post by AutumnWitch657




"researchers working with NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory said they saw nothing along the track that ISON was expected to follow through the sun's atmosphere. Nevertheless, something has emerged."

so is it on a different path or could the "researchers" from NASA not see what every one else could?

If the comet was spinning and it disintegrated, would the fragments still maintain the original trajectory?

Did we have Fire-balls before Ison, yet the two were not connected, right?

Did they have any info before Ison; what they were saying before hand vs. what actually happened?

Do they, Even have a Clue Now?

That about sums it up!

Maybe and maybe not! So far the Odds are for Ison or whats left of it anyway. Always would have like to do a 4th of July anyway in Dec!

Being so hot and dry anyways in July, sometimes the fire ban does not allow it! I do not see anything causing death to us all, yet just say a baseball hitting a power plant would not be nice either!

Peace

reply to post by Soylent Green Is People

The Sun is more likely to vaporize a comet that is mostly ice than it would a comet that is more dust than ice.

So you mentioned that :-

than it would a comet that is more dust than ice

Given that the Suns temperature is as below :-

The temperature at the surface of the Sun is about 10,000 Fahrenheit (5,600 Celsius). The temperature rises from the surface of the Sun inward towards the very hot center of the Sun where it reaches about 27,000,000 Fahrenheit (15,000,000 Celsius). The temperature of the Sun also rises from the surface outward into the Solar atmosphere. The uppermost layer of the Solar atmosphere, called the corona, reaches temperatures of millions of degrees. The corona is the bright halo of light that can be seen during a total Solar eclipse.

coolcosmos.ipac.caltech.edu...

How is there any possibility of any ice remaining with either the " comet that is mostly ice " or the "comet that is more dust than ice" ???

Seems to me "Dirty Snowballs " with those types of temperatures wouldn't have a chance of getting anywhere near the Sun.

reply to post by Pinkorchid

Seems to me "Dirty Snowballs " with those types of temperatures wouldn't have a chance of getting anywhere near the Sun.

If they enter the Sun's corona, maybe. Outside of the corona space is not really hot (nor is it cold).

But it doesn't really make much sense to talk about temperatures in space because temperatures are measure of the motion of molecules (in the case of the corona, plasma particles). The corona is not very dense, pretty nearly a vacuum. This means that even though the particles are moving very fast (they are "hot") there aren't that many of them. They have a high temperature but there isn't much "heat". For example, the outer portions of the Earth's atmosphere (the thermosphere) is very "hot", around 2,500ºC in the daytime. The ISS resides in the middle of the thermosphere but, because the density is so low, it is not heated by it.

The comet itself would be heated by solar radiation. However, how "hot" it would get would depend on a number of factors, including:
1) Its rotation, which would allow the surface away from the Sun to cool off by radiating heat into dark space. There is, apparently, ice on Mercury. Ice which has been there presumably for a very long time and, since it is never exposed to sunlight, will continue to be there. web.mit.edu...

2) Its albedo (how reflective it is). Which gets hotter faster when exposed to sunlight; a blacktop parking lot or a snowfield?

3) When the heating that does occur results in vaporization of volatile materials, that vaporization takes heat away from the nucleus, like a radiator.

reply to post by Phage

If they enter the Sun's corona, maybe.

One of the most puzzling features of the Sun is what has been dubbed "the solar corona problem." There is a region around the Sun, extending more than one million kilometers from its surface, where the temperature can reach two million degrees.

The problem is, no one can really explain how this corona exists. Even if the temperature in the core of the Sun does reach 15 million degrees, it drops to a mere 5000 degrees at the surface. The temperature should be even lower farther away from the Sun, but the temperature of the corona is measured at more than a million degrees. This incredibly hot temperature requires a permanent heating mechanism, or the plasma would cool down in about an hour. There are many mechanisms which could heat some gas above the surface of the Sun, but none of those mechanisms could account for the large rate of heating necessary to heat the corona to these temperatures. This phenomenon remained a mystery for more than 50 years

Using data from instruments onboard the SOlar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) and from the more recent Transition Region And Coronal Explorer (TRACE), solar physicists have identified small patches of magnetic field covering the entire surface of the Sun. Contrary to the bright, large magnetic field loops which are linked to the "active regions" during periods of solar maxima, these patches seem to appear and disappear randomly in time scales on the order of 40 hours. Scientists now think that this magnetic carpet is probably a source of the corona's heat.

Mercury doesn't have an atmosphere like Earth:_

What Is Mercury Like?

The surface of Mercury looks like Earth's moon. It is covered with holes. The holes are called impact craters. The craters were made by rocks falling from space. The rocks are going very fast when they hit Mercury. A hole is made where the rock hits. Earth has a blanket of air around it. Mercury does not. The blanket is what helps keep Earth from getting too hot or cold. Because it is so close to the sun, Mercury can be very hot. At night, Mercury gets very cold. We could not live on Mercury!

www.nasa.gov...

Mercury's eccentric orbit takes the small planet as close as 47 million kilometers (29 million miles) and as far as 70 million kilometers (43 million miles) from the sun. If one could stand on the scorching surface of Mercury when it is at its closest point to the sun, the sun would appear more than three times as large as it does when viewed from Earth. Temperatures on Mercury's surface can reach 430 degrees Celsius (800 degrees Fahrenheit). Because the planet has no atmosphere to retain that heat, nighttime temperatures on the surface can drop to -180 degrees Celsius (-290 degrees Fahrenheit).

solarsystem.nasa.gov...

So your Earth example does not apply as Mercury doesn't have an atmosphere.
How ever the rapid cooling on the surface of the Comet that is not facing the Sun does.

Although the Comet is much smaller than Mercury (NASA) , then there would also be enough heat from the sun facing side to radiate through the smaller combined mass of the Comet to begin to heat the ice from about at least a million kilometres from the Sun.

reply to post by Soylent Green Is People


As long as we are all not crushed or burned to death, i am happy.

reply to post by Pinkorchid

ISON's perihelion was about 1.2 million km. It did not really enter the corona, or if it did, the very outer and least dense regions of it.

So your Earth example does not apply as Mercury doesn't have an atmosphere.

I mentioned the thermosphere to show how, even though it is very hot, it doesn't really affect objects (like the ISS) within it.

Although the Comet is much smaller than Mercury (NASA) , then there would also be enough heat from the sun facing side to radiate through the smaller combined mass of the Comet to begin to heat the ice from about at least a million kilometres from the Sun.

From much farther than that. It is the heating of the comet which causes the coma (and tail) to form. But it is only the surface of the nucleus which gets heated. BTW, heat does not radiate through matter but it can be conducted. But in the case of a comet (like an ice cube) the surface heats, releases gas and vapor (and dust in the process). It, in effect, ablates. And the heat consumed by the ablation process keeps the interior from heating. The middle of an ice cube does not get higher than 0ºC. How hot did the surface of the comet get a perihelion? Doesn't matter much because the inside was still very cold. Cold that is, until the comet broke up because of gravitational effects (tides).

But, again, it is not the "heat" of the Sun which causes it, it is the electromagnetic radiation. Mostly the infrared wavelengths. Talking about how "hot" the corona is not really relevant because of its low density (about 10 times lower than that of the thermosphere). It's hot but hot is not heat. That is why a comet can survive a close pass to the Sun.
coolcosmos.ipac.caltech.edu...

I created this thread because I truly didn't know the answer to whether or not the break-up of ISON was a cause for concern. I know we have a lot of knowledgeable members here on ATS and I was hopeful I would get a convincing answer that would alleviate my concern.

However, after a full day of my OP being posted my question has not been convincingly answered. Does this mean that we really don't know what ISON is going to do? And if that is the case, shouldn't someone in authority warn us? Or, is this a case of no one is able to do anything about anyway so why say something?

If anyone has a convincing answer, I for one would like to hear it.