The divorce rate is NOT 50%. Time to end this myth.

You will see these statistic inaccurately used throughout these threads, articles, the internet, and the media. It is a dangerous myth, as people throw in the towel before getting married thinking the odds are against them.
It is time to know the real truth. It is time to bury the myth.

First is, how did this very flawed number become to be in the first place? Because it is based on a wrong calculation.

In 2003, for example, the most recent year for which data is available, there were 7.5 marriages per 1,000 people and 3.8 divorces, according to the National Center for Health Statistics.

NY Times

So naturally people read that and assumed that the divorce rate is 50%.
Just like anything else, it is more complicated than that. But I can see how people jumped to conclusions.

In fact, they say, studies find that the divorce rate in the United States has never reached one in every two marriages, and new research suggests that, with rates now declining, it probably never will.

But researchers say that this is misleading because the people who are divorcing in any given year are not the same as those who are marrying, and that the statistic is virtually useless in understanding divorce rates.

Same source.

What the statistic didn't take into account were the 54 million marriages that existed and would never divorce.

What is the actual divorce rate? No one really knows. What they do know is that it has been on the decline since 1981.

The estimated figure is more like 25%. Not all states track divorce numbers and report it, California included.

Interestingly, while the 1950s are thought of as boom time for the family, the marriage rates were relatively low through the latter half of the decade and into the early 1960s. (Indeed, today’s rate beats that of 1958.) Then in 1968, when hippies were supposedly lovin’ the ones they were with, the marriage rate rose and stayed relatively high through 1975. It’s only when the numbers are viewed within a narrow 20-year context that marriage looks to be on its deathbed.

scienceblog

does it matter if they are the same couples or not?

i thought a "rate" implied overall numbers. the ratio of married:divorced per year.

reply to post by nixie_nox


It's right for me.

What is the actual divorce rate? No one really knows. What they do know is that it has been on the decline since 1981.

No one really knows? Then how can they be so sure it is on the decline? They can't. The figures are all guesstimates. They may be educated guesstimates, but guesstimates just the same.

Part of the uncertainty about the most recent trends derives from the fact that no detailed annual figures have been available since 1996, when the National Center for Health Statistics stopped collecting detailed data from states on the age, income, education and race of people who divorced.

As a result, estimates from surveys have had to fill in the gaps.

Adding to that. At least one Phd still says 50 percent isn't far off.

Dr. Larry Bumpass, an emeritus professor of sociology at the University of Wisconsin's Center for Demography and Ecology, has long held that divorce rates will eventually reach or exceed 50 percent. In an interview, he said that it was "probably right" that the official divorce statistics might fall below 50 percent, but that the rate would still be close.

"About half is still a very sensible statement," he said.

Bottom line. No one can really say for sure it's a myth. Because no one really knows.

You put up 7.6 married vs 3.8 divorces. 1000 give or take. 7.8 divided by 3.8 = 2 . i suck at math.... that's such an even number.

All I know is my parents divorced after 36 years a week ago. He set her up in the house. Paid that. + 5k month. And they're happy. I'm confused.

Klassified

What is the actual divorce rate? No one really knows. What they do know is that it has been on the decline since 1981.

No one really knows? Then how can they be so sure it is on the decline? They can't. The figures are all guesstimates. They may be educated guesstimates, but guesstimates just the same.

Part of the uncertainty about the most recent trends derives from the fact that no detailed annual figures have been available since 1996, when the National Center for Health Statistics stopped collecting detailed data from states on the age, income, education and race of people who divorced.

As a result, estimates from surveys have had to fill in the gaps.

Adding to that. At least one Phd still says 50 percent isn't far off.

Dr. Larry Bumpass, an emeritus professor of sociology at the University of Wisconsin's Center for Demography and Ecology, has long held that divorce rates will eventually reach or exceed 50 percent. In an interview, he said that it was "probably right" that the official divorce statistics might fall below 50 percent, but that the rate would still be close.

"About half is still a very sensible statement," he said.

Bottom line. No one really can say for sure it's a myth. Because no one really knows.

edit on 11/5/2013 by Klassified because: grammar x 2

*lauhs* that goes both ways.

And not knowing for sure and watching the states that do report, you can fill in the gaps and see the decline. So no, it is not just a guesstimate.

The last information they have is 2006, not 1996. I don't know where you got that information from. It is only in recent years that states stopped reporting. But the data has been collected for over 100 years. To fill in the gap, the data is collected by the census.

Here is a good article with a graph showing the trends and how they figure out the divorce rate, which in the different ways it is measured, sits around at 25%.


www.huffingtonpost.com...


But if you want to be the cloud of doom and hang onto the declaration of one professor so you can declare marriage to be a failure and evil, be my guest.

Bisman
does it matter if they are the same couples or not?

i thought a "rate" implied overall numbers. the ratio of married:divorced per year.

That is how people got the faulty number to begin with. But the same people who get married are not the same ones to get divorced that same year. The majority of the time....unless you are my stepsister.

Let's also take into account the rate of couples whom never married. But live a long happy life.

Bigburgh
You put up 7.6 married vs 3.8 divorces. 1000 give or take. 7.8 divided by 3.8 = 2 . i suck at math.... that's such an even number.

All I know is my parents divorced after 36 years a week ago. He set her up in the house. Paid that. + 5k month. And they're happy. I'm confused.

edit on 5-11-2013 by Bigburgh because: (no reason given)

I am sorry

People underestimate the effect it has on grown children and dismiss how they feel. it can be devastating on adult children and make you question your whole childhood.

My parents divorced and married much worse people. I am still working that one out.

Sometimes without children in the picture, people don't have anything to bond over. Or when they get in their golden years, they want to have fun and the other holds them back.

I know many couples at that stage of life who stay married but live in separate parts of the house. That is the way to go if you are unhappy at that point, methinks.

reply to post by nixie_nox


Thank you...but as result..I got 2 half brothers and 2 half sisters. And one step sister...3 sweet nieces and a nephew..we're still close.

You're right..first it was family dinner every weekend. Then mom and dad lived in separate rooms..
And next he paid off the house for mom. Gave her the deed..and 5k a month..no questions ask..so clearly he still loves her.

reply to post by nixie_nox


Why marry worse people? If the first one was bad...what logic is it to make it worse? To punish yourself for failing the first?

Sorry I'm going off topic..we'll stick with false rate.

My parents divorced when I was in 7th grade. As far as I know it didn't really have a big impact on me. They were unhappy together, so the split up, and are now very happy.
Divorce has all sorts of negative connotations, but it's specific to each family. Some it hurts, and some it helps.
Yes, I said it. My parents were married for 20 years, and they were miserable. Divorce helped my family survive, so to me, it's just not that big of a deal.

reply to post by nixie_nox


Ok, I see your point and believe your right.

But.......

You can't argue the fact that marriage is the number cause of divorce.....

Bigburgh
reply to post by nixie_nox

 

Why marry worse people? If the first one was bad...what logic is it to make it worse? To punish yourself for failing the first?

Sorry I'm going off topic..we'll stick with false rate.

edit on 5-11-2013 by Bigburgh because: off topic

No, because both of my parents have been with their second partners for over 30 years. That would be considered successful.

You can't go on personal experiences. I am separated, but all my friends have remained in successful marriages, that I can't see ending. That would support the 25% if you wanted to look at it that way.

mwood
reply to post by nixie_nox

 

Ok, I see your point and believe your right.

But.......

You can't argue the fact that marriage is the number cause of divorce.....

*laughs* this is true.

But...... despite all the negative connotations that people want to surround marriage with, married people are happier overall. period. Despite the complaints. If it was that bad, everyone wouldn't do it.

Study after study shows that married people are happier, are better off financially, married men live longer, report better sex lives than their single counterparts.

I figured it would be closer to 90%. Seems like the thing to do these days with so many "options".

What a thoughtful thread and I find this topic very interesting.

I would like to see more long-term studies on larger and more variable groups, then broken down into more specific study groups, such as uneducated/educated couples under the age of say 25 years vs. uneducated/educated couples over the age of 30 years (with and without children and with or without stressors (financial, expectations (real or imagined)), etc. I believe there are so many variables within the dymanics of a couple's relationship that current studies simply look at the tip of the iceberg, so to speak.

The link below shows statistics as it pertains to the divorce and marriage rates during periods of recession in the U.S. only, so it would appear that financial/economic issues (a major stressor in relationships) play a role, as well as do cultural and political factors.

www.huffingtonpost.com...

Additionally, here is an article that also points to financial/economic reasons for fluctuating levels of divorce, as well I keep seeing in many studies/articles, the main reason for divorce are philandering husbands (cheating).

Some lawyers have predicted that the end of the recession could also unleash a surge in separations as couples who put off getting divorced because they could not afford to now reconsider.

But despite the influence of economics on married life, the polling – conducted by ICM for the law firm Pannone – found that most believe than an age-old cause lies behind most failed marriages: philandering husbands.

www.telegraph.co.uk...

reply to post by nixie_nox


I think divorcing after 40yrs of marriage(assuming married at 25) should not be considered divorce lol.

That would definitely lower the divorce percentage.



Also, welcome back to ATS.

reply to post by nixie_nox


The statistic never does take into account how many divorces are by one single person. In my wife's family for instance, out of the last 6 marriages 4 ended in divorce. Her mom divorced 4 times. All of the other marriages are still going strong. In my family out of the last 4 marriages, two ended in divorce. My little brother divorced the same woman twice.

I see the problem. The "statistic" exists because people are using numbers simplistically, including here. They compare marriages to divorces, come out with a 50% figure, and think that answers the question. But it doesn't. The real question you want answered is,

"How many marriages end in divorce?"

Comparing marriages to divorces does not answer that question. To acquire that information would require personalized tracking of individual marriages that was capable of distinguishing between divorces and deaths. If there are sophisticated statistical methods that can be used to track this information, they surely have not been shown here, at least not yet.