Climate Departure and Cities to be Hit First

If you believe in global warming this might interest you. Myself, I am not convinced. Course it is far enough away that when/if it doesn't happen, many will be gone or forgotten.

Climate scientists sometimes talk about something called "climate departure" as a way of measuring when climate change has really changed things. It's the moment when average temperatures, either in a specific location or worldwide, become so impacted by climate change that the old climate is left behind. It's a sort of tipping point. And a lot of cities are scheduled to hit one very soon.

A city hits "climate departure" when the average temperature of its coolest year from then on is projected to be warmer than the average temperature of its hottest year between 1960 and 2005. For example, let's say the climate departure point for D.C. is 2047 (which it is). After 2047, even D.C.'s coldest year will still be hotter than any year from before 2005. Put another way, every single year after 2047 will be hotter than D.C.'s hottest year on record from 1860 to 2005. It's the moment when the old "normal" is really gone.

Washington Post

Below is a list of cities color coded for their expected departure date. Kingston Jamaica is expected to hit it in 10 years without climate mitigation.

reply to post by liveandlearn


Hi Mr.liveandlearn..S&F..looks you very concern to Global Warming so much..
This is the Scientist Prediction Estimated dates of coming climate extremes under the RCP8.5 model, which projects today's levels of carbon dioxide emissions continuing through 2100..

www.livescience.com...

and other article about incoming global Warming..

Forget Polar Bears — Warming Will Hit the Tropics First

www.livescience.com...

i feel you concern to!

When do we hit the year of BS departure?

I can't wait!

Magister
When do we hit the year of BS departure?

I can't wait!

oh PLEASE wouldn't that be nice!

It's so odd that they chose carbon to beat us all over the head with because of all the green house gasses that exist (quite naturally) carbos is a mere tiny fraction! The absolute biggest green house gas is WATER! But they dont mention that because it's completely naturall and DWARFS any effect that carbon has.

reply to post by liveandlearn


I have been researching this for years. If I read another research paper I think my eyeballs will fall out so I will spare everyone else's eyes and leave out the links.

First Climate is chaotic. Lots of factors with positive and negative forcings. Second there are two "Strange Attractors" (from chaos theory) there is a 'Warm' and a 'Cold' We are presently in a warm phase heading towards cold. We are at the half precession point and solar insolation has declined 9% since the Holocene Optimum, Norway's glaciers have been growing at the greatest rate (in fits and starts) during the past 800 years. (A new approach for reconstructing glacier variability based on lake sediments recording input from more than one glacier 2012)

When the right set of conditions are hit we will snap into the cold phase. The change will be ABRUPT. Locally scientists have found there have been changes of up to 16C within a short time span. The change from the Wisconsin Ice Age to the Holocene happened in 3 Years! (Abrupt Climate Change – Inevitable Surprises, Committee on Abrupt Climate Change, National Research Council of the National Academy of Sciences, 2002, ISBN: 0-309-51284-0, 244 pages, Richard B. Alley, chair)

Five of the last six interglacials have each lasted about half a precession cycle. The precession cycle itself varies between 19,000 and 23,000 years and we are close to the 23kyr point now, making 11,715 years about half……..

So the real climate questions are will the Holocene be a half precession cycle or like MIS 11 spans two precession cycles? If it is a half precession cycle what are the triggers to tip the earth into the Cold Phase?

Now on that Cheerful note:

Shutdown worsens historic blizzard that killed tens of thousands of South Dakota cattle

An unusually early and enormous snowstorm over the weekend caught South Dakota ranchers and farmers unprepared, killing tens of thousands of cattle ....

the storm slammed the western part of the state Thursday through Saturday with snowfall that set records for the entire month of October in just three days, state and industry officials said.

Across the state, snow totals averaged 30 inches, with some isolated areas recording almost 5 feet...

The South Dakota Stock Growers Association estimated that 15 percent to 20 percent of all cattle were killed in some parts of the state. Some ranchers reported that they lost half or more of their herds.

The storm was accompanied by hurricane-force wind gusts...

reply to post by VoidHawk

....It's so odd that they chose carbon to beat us all over the head with because of all the green house gasses that exist (quite naturally) carbos is a mere tiny fraction! The absolute biggest green house gas is WATER! But they dont mention that....

The skulduggery is even worse than that. Water in all its forms is probably one of THE biggest factors in climate. What do they do? They make water a FEEDBACK of CO2 and ADD the effects of water to that of CO2!!!!

It comes from the UN (and Club of Rome) so the whole idea is to try and find something to blame on humans and use as a hammer.

the IPCC mandate

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established by the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in 1988 to assess the scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant for the understanding of human induced climate change, its potential impacts and options for mitigation and adaptation.... www.ipcc-wg2.gov...

So it was NEVER about looking at climate. It was ONLY about finding something that humans were to blame for.

OH, and never forget the bankers.

World Bank Carbon Finance Report for 2007The carbon economy is the fastest growing industry globally with US$84 billion of carbon trading conducted in 2007, doubling to $116 billion in 2008, and expected to reach over $200 billion by 2012 and over $2,000 billion by 2020

Or the US government. Just an example:

Climate Change
2011 US Federal Government Budget
NOAA 437 million
NSF 480 million
NASA 438.1 million
DOE 627 million
DOI 171 million
EPA 169 million
USDA 159 million
TOTAL = 2,312.1 million
From: climatequotes.com...

The US government has provided over $79 billion since 1989 on policies related to climate change. Every single penny of that money comes from the Average Joe. He is the one stuck with the bill for this madness and the one asked to make sacrifices in his life style and the life style of his children.

reply to post by cheesy


Always love seeing your Avatar Cheesy but I think you misunderstand me. I am not concerned about global warming...more concerned about global cooling.

From what I have read the models used are models developed by the IPCC and they do have an agenda. Plus, I have read that there was much discussion about what to leave in and what to leave out to further the agenda. Not to mention the fact that there was no comment on the fact that the climate was stable since 1998 to 2013 while Carbon Dioxide increased.

It is a subject to complicated for my brain.

reply to post by crimvelvet


Just...WOW!!!
I knew it was about money but I had no idea of just how much money was involved!
Thanks for posting that.

liveandlearn
I am not concerned about global warming...more concerned about global cooling.

I'll go along with that.
Interesting to note that back in the 70's when they were fear mongering about another ice age, it was those same people who now tell us we're all going to fry!

But yes, for me, if I had any fear, it's that we could have another ice age, and it could happen very quickly!

Magister
When do we hit the year of BS departure?

I can't wait!

Its been here for a decade.

Ever notice how it's always some point in the future that we never seem to get to? Alarmist have been spewing this BS for years, but are constantly changing their stories and moving the dates further and further out.

reply to post by liveandlearn

...I am not concerned about global warming...more concerned about global cooling....

Nice summary. And yes they have been playing games.

All the research that did not fit the Agenda was left out. Worse POLITICIANS and Bureaucrats went over the Summary for Policy Makers line by line and had to agree unanimously. THEN the scientific portion had to be changed to agree with the summary!

That isn't science that is politics pure and simple.

reply to post by crimvelvet


exactly my understanding...sudden cooling. Someone is going to have to come up with something stronger than the IPCC data to convince me this isn't just the normal earth cycle.

reply to post by crimvelvet


I have a question, isn't part of agenda 21 to get rid of the cattle herds because it "isn't sustainable"? If I read that right what do you guys think about that?

Lil

reply to post by cleverhans


Science can't be blamed for badly worded article titles. If you read past the title you see that isn't what the scientists said, they said could be ice free by 2013... That was their earliest projection year and to be honest if we had a repeat of 2012 it most likely would have come true. Luckily it didn't.

Kali74
reply to post by cleverhans

 

Science can't be blamed for badly worded article titles. If you read past the title you see that isn't what the scientists said, they said could be ice free by 2013... That was their earliest projection year and to be honest if we had a repeat of 2012 it most likely would have come true. Luckily it didn't.

Piffle, badly worded articles? (Please you can come up with a better excuse than that) that's what you call the the misinformation and and false data sets that were concocted to MAKE UP the climate models. Typical case of torturing the data until it confesses. These so called climate scientists have been caught with their pants down and trying to tell us "you didn't see anything" we're not naked we are the emperors of false data, we don't need clothes.

bladerunner44

Kali74
reply to post by cleverhans

 

Science can't be blamed for badly worded article titles. If you read past the title you see that isn't what the scientists said, they said could be ice free by 2013... That was their earliest projection year and to be honest if we had a repeat of 2012 it most likely would have come true. Luckily it didn't.

Piffle, badly worded articles? (Please you can come up with a better excuse than that) that's what you call the the misinformation and and false data sets that were concocted to MAKE UP the climate models. Typical case of torturing the data until it confesses. These so called climate scientists have been caught with their pants down and trying to tell us "you didn't see anything" we're not naked we are the emperors of false data, we don't need clothes.

I said badly worded article TITLES. The title of the article that was linked in the post I replied to, did not accurately reflect what the scientists the article was about, were claiming.

As far as false data sets? Prove it or stop making such baseless claims.

VoidHawk

Magister
When do we hit the year of BS departure?

I can't wait!

oh PLEASE wouldn't that be nice!

It's so odd that they chose carbon to beat us all over the head with because of all the green house gasses that exist (quite naturally) carbos is a mere tiny fraction! The absolute biggest green house gas is WATER! But they dont mention that because it's completely naturall and DWARFS any effect that carbon has.

OK unless you live somewhere that is impacted by the actual climate, that is changing, how can you make light of it. If you go through hurricanes and typhoons then you can talk about it. People that talk about this stuff and are not really effected today drive me crazy.

Come down south or go live somewhere and go through this weather and then come back and talk. Maybe getting old but I have been through several hurricanes. People that say the climate has not effected these storms is crazy and must only be a teenager lol.

The climate is changing and with it the weather, you can live in LA LA land if you want to, but allot of us are actually already being affected by the changes. Here is the real problem, the one percent does no want there to be climate change, it will cost them money. They don't care about the consequences because they know they won't be alive.

Change could happen, they are testing things now without even telling us. Not sure why they are not telling folks unless it is worse than we fear. One thing is sure, climate is changing, some of us are living it, the question is have we reached the dreaded no turning back tipping point.

The Bot

dlbott

The climate is changing and with it the weather, you can live in LA LA land if you want to, but allot of us are actually already being affected by the changes.
The Bot

So are you trying to tell me its only happening in selected places!
Are you saying that there's a template for hurricanes and if they differ from that then it proves climate change? If so please show me where your template for hurricane behavior comes from because I'm sure a lot of people including scientists would like to study it!

I'm NOT a young kid! I'm almost 60, and seen enough to know that YES the climate changes, it changes all the time, and its perfectly natural, but it certainly isn't the extreme change they desperately want us all to believe.
About two years ago someone was on here telling me we wouldn't be here in two years time because we'd all be under water. Well as you can see, we're all still here, NOTHING has changed, other than the numbers of people pumping this BS!

reply to post by VoidHawk

About two years ago someone was on here telling me we wouldn't be here in two years time because we'd all be under water.

Probably a disinfo agent because none of the actual science would have said that.

Well as you can see, we're all still here, NOTHING has changed

Except that we continue to see more record high temperatures set and fewer low temperature records.
en.wikipedia.org...