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Every monthly jobs report has a margin of error of plus or minus 100,000, so there's no meaningful difference between 120,000 and 205,000.
Why so much wiggle room? The surveys used to calculate jobs reports don't actually count every person in America -- that would be too hard for anyone to do every month. Instead, they use small samples, and extrapolate the results of those samples out to reflect how many jobs were probably created and what the unemployment rate probably is. Since there's a risk the bureau might survey a group of people not reflective of the entire nation, that extrapolation can't be done with precise numbers; just broad ranges.
The BLS gives an example. When it reports that 50,000 jobs were created in a month, what it's really saying is that there's a 90% chance that the monthly change was between -50,000 and +150,000.
.
FissionSurplus
reply to post by MrSpad
You are correct, I should have been clearer in my OP. Apparently, they choose 60,000 households to ask if they worked or not in any given week. Simultaneously they pick 500,000 employers to see if they have added or reduced jobs, according to this: 6thfloor.blogs.nytimes.com...
Another source claims that only 160,000 businesses are surveyed. *Sigh*. Reporters cannot even get these numbers right.
However, consider the following: Extrapolating this data for the entire country is iffy, at best. Numbers can and are massaged to make things look better than they are.
Every monthly jobs report has a margin of error of plus or minus 100,000, so there's no meaningful difference between 120,000 and 205,000.
Why so much wiggle room? The surveys used to calculate jobs reports don't actually count every person in America -- that would be too hard for anyone to do every month. Instead, they use small samples, and extrapolate the results of those samples out to reflect how many jobs were probably created and what the unemployment rate probably is. Since there's a risk the bureau might survey a group of people not reflective of the entire nation, that extrapolation can't be done with precise numbers; just broad ranges.
The BLS gives an example. When it reports that 50,000 jobs were created in a month, what it's really saying is that there's a 90% chance that the monthly change was between -50,000 and +150,000.
.
www.dailyfinance.com...
Even if the companies were honest with the Bureau of Labor Statistics, how honest is the BLS? Based on what we get from Uncle Sugar in the way of "information" and "facts", not very honest at ALL.
I still suspect that the gubmint encourages employers to advertise for jobs they know damned well do not exist, so that we get the sense that everything is fine. It isn't.
wasaka
reply to post by FissionSurplus
My comment was not direct at you... I was attempting to clarify
what I was saying... namely that MANY of jobs being posted by
the biggest casinos in Las Vegas are fake (but not all).
Even if 1 in 10 job posting at MGM is fake, that is a big deal
when they only allow people to apply for one job at a time.
If this is indeed going on, someone needs to blow the whistle.
Honestly, I've been pissed off about this for a long time.
edit on 9-10-2013 by wasaka because: (no reason given)
sealing
wasaka
reply to post by FissionSurplus
My comment was not direct at you... I was attempting to clarify
what I was saying... namely that MANY of jobs being posted by
the biggest casinos in Las Vegas are fake (but not all).
Even if 1 in 10 job posting at MGM is fake, that is a big deal
when they only allow people to apply for one job at a time.
If this is indeed going on, someone needs to blow the whistle.
Honestly, I've been pissed off about this for a long time.
edit on 9-10-2013 by wasaka because: (no reason given)
I'd be worried about answering those ads.
Before you know it you're on a plane without windows
off to build resorts in Dubai as a slave.
en.wikipedia.org...
Merlynn
I've seen a lot of jobs listed and know they weren't really hiring in this area. Some of the jobs say this area, but are actually looking for overseas workers. I live near a military post and the position have to do with that. Getting a job on post is getting to be more and more of a joke too. When I first worked out there they mainly hired veterans, but more and more they are hiring their family and friends. Oh and many of their family they hire have been to jail first.