Lots of Meteors recently ... a few questions...

reply to post by agentofchaos

Why, idk, but is most definitely a fact that they are becoming more frequent.

Yes, more people are reporting them.
That does not necessarily mean they are occurring more frequently. It certainly does mean that more people are aware that there is a place where they can file their sightings. It certainly does mean that social media increase the awareness of meteor events.

The earth regularly passes through 'showers' of space rocks of varying sizes, the 'Geminids' & 'Leonids' for example. There's nothing unusual going on and no cause for heightened levels of concern, as if there's anything you could do about a large one with your number on it. Very very few of those that get into our atmosphere make it to the ground before burning up and it's just the proliferation of cameras that's making the general public more aware of them globally.

Just read an interesting statistic claiming 10% of the photographs ever taken were shot in the last 12 months.

This is where the concentration of meteors is coming from...



fireballs.ndc.nasa.gov...

DSX Dayt. Sexantids 154.5 -1.5 31.2 2005 UD

2005 UD is the parent body.


As far as why,I don't know.


fireballs.ndc.nasa.gov...


ssd.jpl.nasa.gov...

jjsr420
Not sure if this is the right place for this, if not; please move it mods. I've noticed recently there have been alot more posts about meteors. I've noticed alot more meteors in general both here, and elsewhere. I'm no scientist, or anything...but does that mean there are actually more events occuring?

Are meteors happening more, and more often?

Personally it makes me think that maybe somethings going on. Could anyone find some actual evidence for, or against, this? I mean something verifiable, not a youtube vid, or anything like that.

And if there are indeed more meteors happening; what does that bode for us?

It seems like the amount of reported "fireballs", not shooting stars, has increased from a few hundred in just July of this year to a few thousand this month, not to mention the huge increase over the past few years.

Some say this is just due to iphones and youtube. I disagree, fireballs used to be so rare we'd hear about a couple big ones every decade, now we hear about that amount every day sometimes. This has nothing to do with reporting and is as it seems, fireballs are increasing:

This time of year usually sees an increase in fireball reports.

The southern taurids in this case , which the peak is scheduled for a little over a week away.

Now that is not saying this month has not been unusual, but it is not out of the total norm.



Just wait... in just less than 7 months.. we will see a real fireworks show and one that will have this site going batty.

reply to post by PlanetXisHERE

It seems like the amount of reported "fireballs", not shooting stars, has increased from a few hundred in just July of this year to a few thousand this month, not to mention the huge increase over the past few years.

A few thousand this month? Not on this planet. According the the AMS there have been 281 reported in September. 224 in January. 176 in July.
www.amsmeteors.org...

I disagree, fireballs used to be so rare we'd hear about a couple big ones every decade, now we hear about that amount every day sometimes.

Keywords: "hear about".

1972. Canada. No internet. No cell phones. Did you hear about any of them?
hyperion2.cc.uregina.ca...

reply to post by jjsr420


Wormwood is out there.....waiting.....a collision course set many many years ago like a clock. All these little fellas are just there to ever remind us.

reply to post by jjsr420


Well about a month ago I was walking my dogs around 2.30am and i`ve noticed a LOT of shooting stars recently. However this night i saw what i thought was a plane at first but then a big fiery red tail followed it and it was moving very fast. As i watched, in absolute awe it broke into 2 and exploded. It seemed very low. Now I`ve been watching the night sky for more years than i care to mention and i`ve never seen a meteor like it, EVER. Then when i thought maybe someone on ATS may have posted something about it a hell of a lot more threads are about increased meteor activity?????

BTW this was in South Manchester about 3-4 weeks ago if anyone near there saw it, it literally tore through the sky, i feel privaliged to have witnessed it.

Tinkerpeach

jjsr420
reply to post by Tinkerpeach

 

But does the rise in activity signify either a large impact, or many smaller impacts?

No

As to your question specifically, there has been nothing happening to cause more meteor activity. Mars didn't blow up and is sending a bunch of new stuff our way or anything. Our gravitational pull did not increase, bringing more space debris into our atmosphere or anything like that.

Throw a bunch of Ping-Pong balls in a pool, wait a few minutes and go in. As you swim around you will pass through some open water and spots where a lot of balls have seemed to mass together.

Its kind of the same analogy.

We will simply pass through stuff or it will pass by us.

Odds are there are simply more people looking up at the sky and taking pictures. Maybe Best Buy had a sale on cameras recently or something but nothing new has happened to cause more meteor impacts.

You know you were doing okay with your response until you had to add the last line, then you lost all credibility with the same ole song and dance routine!

ProfessorChaos
reply to post by jjsr420

 

Somewhere between 36 and 166 meteorites larger than 10 grams fall to Earth per million square kilometers per year, which translates to 18,000 to 84,000 meteorites bigger than 10 grams over the whole surface of the Earth per year.

Source

I would submit that the events aren't happening more often, but are being reported more often.

It would be nice if you'd tell the whole story instead of only half-truths Professor. You forgot to mention this line that was at the end of the paragraph explaining your 'fuzzy math' above

But most meteorites are too small to actually fall all the way to the surface.

I think we'd all be walking around with concrete umbrellas if that many meteorites actually struck the surface of the planet, don't you?

Also, one key word you all are failing to discuss here is that these are "fireballs" that are being reported, not simple shooting stars or meteors. A fireball is a much larger meteor that streaks across the sky and no matter what spin you want to put on it, we Earthlings are seeing more "fireballs."

It's not better reporting. I think most of these witnesses, by what you read in their descriptions, would know whether what they are seeing is extraordinary or just another shooting star. Over the past year, many of these "fireball" witnesses are reporting seeing something like they've never seen in their lifetimes.

I think those thousands of people in that Russian city would agree with that one.

reply to post by jjsr420


I walk my dogs everynight. I live in the innercity but used to live near the country. I`ve watched the skys as long as i can remember. I`ve been lucky enough to witness a rare show of the northern lights and a solar eclipse plus numerous meteor showers. However over the last 4=6 months i`ve never seen so many shooting stars and thankfully my first meteor. Am not sure what this means but from what i can tell theres a lot more activity in the night skys at the moment.

It also reminds me of a documentary i watched some time ago, it could have been " I know what i saw. " However in this documentary someone tells how the US government said " first scare them (the public) with terrorism, then with meteors and finally, i kid you not, Aliens"

I`m going on a mission to find this documentry unless anyone else remembers this????

reply to post by fenian8



I think you are referring to Von Braun's predictions or insights as to the coming "artificial threats" we would face in the future.

1. Russians / Communists
2. Terrorists
3. Third-world country "Crazies" / Axis of Evil / Nations of Concern
4. Asteroids
5. Aliens / Mock Invasion

Search Von Braun and his predictions and you should find it.

reply to post by Rezlooper

A fireball is a much larger meteor that streaks across the sky and no matter what spin you want to put on it, we Earthlings are seeing more "fireballs."

No. A fireball is a bright meteor, not necessarily a large object.

A fireball is another term for a very bright meteor, generally brighter than magnitude -4, which is about the same magnitude of the planet Venus in the morning or evening sky.

www.amsmeteors.org...

There are various factors which determine how bright a meteor will be, size of the object being one of them. The composition of the object is also very important. An object does not have to be very large to produce a very bright fireball.

"Fireballs you can see relatively easily in the daytime and are many times that size – anywhere from a baseball-sized object to something as big as a minivan."

www.nasa.gov...

It's not better reporting. I think most of these witnesses, by what you read in their descriptions, would know whether what they are seeing is extraordinary or just another shooting star. Over the past year, many of these "fireball" witnesses are reporting seeing something like they've never seen in their lifetimes.

Well that would depend on how much time one spends looking for them. And its much easier to hear about those reports now thanks to social media and better reporting resources. Here are some reports from Canada, before the internet. Did you hear about any of them?
hyperion2.cc.uregina.ca...

Experienced observers can expect to see only about 1 fireball of magnitude -6 or better for every 200 hours of meteor observing, while a fireball of magnitude -4 can be expected about once every 20 hours or so.

www.amsmeteors.org...

So...are experienced observers reporting an increase in fireballs? Wouldn't they be the ones to ask instead of someone who has seen one in their life?

reply to post by TwiTcHomatic

Search Von Braun and his predictions and you should find it.

Correction. Search Carol Rosin. She claims that Von Braun said that to her.

reply to post by Phage


Good point, but if you put Von Braun and prediction into google, Carol references usually pop up in the first link.

Good correction nonetheless.

reply to post by TwiTcHomatic


Reading it now. Cheers.

reply to post by Phage


I would argue that it also means there have been a higher frequency of large fireballs. I mean I can sit in my boat on the ocean and report them all night long, but we are talking about very large ones that you can't miss and that are lasting several seconds.
The kind you generally only see a few a lifetime.
I had seen maybe 5 or 6 in 27 years. Then to add to that one earlier this year in KY then 2 days ago, 2 huge ones over the same states within 4 or so hours of each other.

I would say there has been an increase in large fireballs.. I don't think it's an increase in people knowing where to report. People don't report shooting stars, because they happen. People DO report giant fireballs.

I am not saying it means anything.. it just means there has seemingly been an increase. Just happens that more pieces entered lately around the same time. Space debris isn't a steady thing and there could be a millions reasons we have some larger pieces coming in more often lately (by larger, I imagine these fireballs are a few meters in order to burn so long).

reply to post by GogoVicMorrow

I had seen maybe 5 or 6 in 27 years. Then to add to that one earlier this year in KY then 2 days ago, 2 huge ones over the same states within 4 or so hours of each other.

Yes. And sometimes you might roll boxcars twice in a row. Does that mean the odds changed?
And sometimes you might not do it in 50 rolls.Does that mean the odds changed?

Additionally, the brighter the fireball, the more rare is the event. As a general thumb rule, there are only about 1/3 as many fireballs present for each successively brighter magnitude class, following an exponential decrease. Experienced observers can expect to see only about 1 fireball of magnitude -6 or better for every 200 hours of meteor observing, while a fireball of magnitude -4 can be expected about once every 20 hours or so.

www.amsmeteors.org...

Now, if some of these experienced observers start reporting something unusual in fireball frequency it could mean something. On the other hand, even if they don't, it could mean something. But relying on twitter reports (something pretty new) and reports to the AMS (also pretty new) really doesn't tell us much. That's my point. The database does not cover a long enough time span nor is the sampling base consistent enough to reach any conclusions. It is all, in essence, anecdotal.

Did any place else on the planet see two huge ones within hours of each other in the past few days? That would be something that would raise my eyebrow a bit but it still wouldn't indicate a trend.

(by larger, I imagine these fireballs are a few meters in order to burn so long).

You could be wrong about that. Think more softball or football sized.

reply to post by Phage


I was just giving an anecdote about myself.
So your response to that wasn't really necessary. I am not using sightings as evidence. I am saying large sightings of fireballs has increased lately. I do think it's possible it's not just a people or technology effect, it's just as possible that there have just been more than usual. I don't think it's a sign of anything more than sometimes there are more, sometimes there are less, but I do think there have been more lately.

reply to post by GogoVicMorrow

There is no doubt that reported sightings have increased. If you're relying on reported sightings, they started increasing dramatically in 2010 (as far as the AMS goes).

But the trouble is, it's sort of hard to determine if unreported sightings have increased or not. How many of your personal sightings did you report? Where did you report them?

It's possible that actual occurrences have increased. But a voluntary reporting system is not going to tell us that.