Soros Places 1.25 Billion dollar bet on stock market collapse

Originally posted by joeraynor
reply to post by Helious

 

I have expressed my thoughts at some length on that subject in a thread a few days ago:

www.abovetopsecret.com...

More or less, I feel that multi-national business dealings serve as a much greater protection to corporations or robber-barons then could ever be afforded to them back when they were known simply as the "aristocracy". Their influence knows no ends, and they have no home turf to speak of. They can hide out for a good long time on any of a thousand anonymous beaches, well out of harm's way, while the world eats itself. If they wanted, people like Soros could hide from any sort of fiscal or legal punishment heading their way for a decade, with their money in 100 jurisdictions. People would slowly forget Soros existed, and he or his money would either pop up again later, or be hidden under the investments of 20-odd firms with the most generic names possible (EuroInvest.LLC, Heavy Comex Limited, etc.)

I read your link, it's intelligent writing and thinking! With that said, I would offer that it has become so much more than financial manipulation. We actively kill hundreds of innocent people every day. We have troops on the ground in combat facility in over a dozen countries.

We have secret courts designated for not only foreign combatants but for AMERICAN CITIZENS. By American values, by our Constitution and in the spirit that this country was founded, maintained and kept, there simply is no allowance for secret courts. This goes against EVERYTHING that the American value system holds most dear. Lack of due process, lack of the 4th amendment, lack of the right to a speedy trial, to confront or acknowledge witnesses against you, having everything you as a person, your inalienable rights and a step further, those GUARANTEED by the constitution of the Untied States, the document on which this country was founded, too have them violated in such blatant and aggressive fashion is............. Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.

Secret courts have no place in America. If anyone doubts why, I would be happy to link the secret courts of Nazi Germany. The ones that all of the political dissidents, people who spoke out against the regime or merely the people the state didn't like were tried in, sentenced to torture, life imprisonment or death, I can show you. Our justice system does not allow for secret courts, for secret deaths or assassinations under NDAA, secret detainment or secret anything. Our rule of law is clearly outlined in the Constitution of the United States, it is non negotiable and our rights under that document that EVERY lawmaker including the POTUS has swore too is GUARANTEED thus making any law drafted in opposition too it an act of treason.

One part of the OP article that IMHO needs considering is this.

But deciphering what Soros was thinking when he upped that SPY put position is not so easy. As Baron notes, we don’t really know the precise structure of target dates and holdings. The fund could have increased that SPY put anytime in the second quarter. Joseph from the Baron further said this when asked about the significance of Soros’s move: “The last time SPY puts topped the Soros Fund was in the 30th June 2011 filing and we saw the S&P 500 lose 15%+ over the 6-7 weeks following, over July/August (during which time Soros reduced the position substantially). The position in 2011 was less than half the size of the current one which makes me think he might be anticipating a larger decline on this occasion.”

From Marketwatch

I'm not by any means a Soros fan, but the dude knows how to make money in the markets.

Unless you're gambling puts are best used as insurance against declines that would affect other positions, and there are a myriad of strategies in which to use them, and unless you know the particulars of how they are being used there isn't a lot you can say about it.

The article admits that there isn't a lot of detail about the position. I don't know what source material the source article is working from the article is written as if they are all "long" puts, but what if the report from the fund only lists the position not whether it is "long" or "short"? If it's a short put position then the bet is that the market will go up and any premium earned from the put the fund gets to keep as the options expire.

Some of the reasons I could think of aside of knowledge or fear of an impending crash are:
Normal hedging, maybe even with an eye toward an overdue correction due.
Some type of play to make a profit off potential increases in volatility.
Calendar spreads to capture time value.
Taking advantage of perceived mispricings.
Complex option strategies to do a little bit of all of the above.

I think portraying this as a single bet for an impending correction (long overdue IMHO) is being more than a little sensational, but I'm still glad it was reported on. I took a quick look through the various expiries for the SPY ETF and there are some pretty large open interest amounts on both the call and put side of the options chains, but that is pretty common for the SPY. There are current options available for the SPY all the way out to DEC 2015 so the bet could be for any month or combination of months from now until then.

reply to post by Helious


You know, our positions on the matter are not really that different. I agree that most of the presidents since Eisenhower left office are probably guilty of some form of Treason. I know that saying that in the open is getting me on more lists than I am on already, but it must be said. Gitmo is obvious Treason. Supporting the NSA in its recently disclosed dealings is Treason. We like to talk about the violation of the 4th ammendment, but if you know your Bill of Rights well, it is really the 4th, 5th, 6th, 8th, and 9th ammendments that have all been basicly shredded in the last 20 years, and number 1 and 2 are under heavy fire. That is MOST of them in the Bill of Rights. I imagine 1/3 of the executive orders that Clinton, Bush and Obama have signed probably contain blatant Treason. And Obama was a professor of Constitutional law; he knows what his pen is doing.

Commodoties on some level equate to blood. Don't think I believe it stops there. When dollars or Yen or Renminbi change hands, labor is moved. Somtimes too, shots are fired 6000 miles away. Our monopoly money does have real world consequences for almost every living person. The stock market isn't a video game, it is the arena in which people's time on earth and bodies are sold.

Soros is a very shrewed businessman and an expert in the markets. He didn't make billions in the market by being a fool but rather by being a very savvy market player. With this bet, it would be wise to see what he is doing with his other investments and where he is moving and from. He plays to win and his record proves that he rarely loses. Things are bound to get interesting rather quickly. As the markets here will open 12 hours before NY, if they head south along with London, NY will be every man for himself and Soros will make billions.

reply to post by joeraynor

I have heard about this "angle" - that Iraq was invaded after it tried to switch to Euro petrol reserves - and have no reason to doubt the truth of this viewpoint because a number of knowledgeable people I know have claimed this. I must confess ignorance on this topic, petrol reserves and dollars and how the whole thing works. Would you please be so kind as to offer a brief explanation of what this means, or alternatively, direct those who wish to understand this topic better to further reading... thank you

reply to post by shadowsinthecave


At about the 2 minute mark it discusses the petrol dollar.......www.abovetopsecret.com...

Originally posted by Bassago
... it's quite possible Bernanke is going to announce the beginning of QE tapering.

There is no market and the economy is caput any way ya slice it so a lot of this taper talk is irrelevant. Though I'll admit, when backed into a corner, criminals are hard to predict.

reply to post by shadowsinthecave

I have heard about this "angle" - that Iraq was invaded after it tried to switch to Euro petrol reserves - and have no reason to doubt the truth of this viewpoint because a number of knowledgeable people I know have claimed this. I must confess ignorance on this topic, petrol reserves and dollars and how the whole thing works. Would you please be so kind as to offer a brief explanation of what this means, or alternatively, direct those who wish to understand this topic better to further reading... thank you

Hey shadows, very good, very central question.

In 1971 and 1973, the US made a deal with Opec (read, we strong-armed them). The US had just canceled one of the laws it had that allowed dollars to be converted back to gold, which made the currency powerful. At this point, there were more dollars than gold left, and frankly we felt the gold was more valuable. The deal was that Saudi Arabia and other Arab oil countries would accept only US dollars in exchange for oil, and the US would provide "military support" to these countries. That agreement caused the 1973-1974 oil embargo, when the Arabs saw it for what it was, but the agreement nevertheless continued.

Why does the US heavily profit from this deal? The answer is simple. Any country who wants to buy oil needs to have a reserve of US dollars on hand to purchase it with. And what happens to US dollars? Their value is constantly inflated away because the federal reserve is constantly printing more and more money for bonds. This is a form of tax. The people who hold the dollars have the value of what they hold diminished, and hence are donating that value back to the federal reserve's printers.

If you want the petro-dollar-reserve system described in a sentence, an easily understood one after what I just discussed is:


The petro-dollar-reserve system is a device for indirectly taxing all holders of US currency, who are forced to hold dollars in order to buy oil.



You should be able to easily see why this gives the US a unique currency advantage which no other country possesses, which other powers like China and Russia are trying to remove at any cost, and which the US has defended at spear tip with a great campaign of reactive wars.

Soros Places 1.25 Billion dollar bet on stock market collapse

Soros also donated big money to Chris Christies campaign war chest. So does this mean that Soros is putting players in place to cause a stock market collapse so he can collect a win on his 1.25 Billion $$ bet?? Interesting twist to think about ....

Well, if that nameless son of a nameless father does not have any offspring (soros) all his money will go to the government anyway, which will take the government 5 minuets to spend it.

One of question springs to mind.

If indeed the markets crash, he wins the bet and money becomes worthless, who is going to be able to pay out and what would be the point?

Originally posted by Lunarian
I'm no economist, but anyone with half a brain can see how bad things are. Nor do I really know who the hell George Soros is (I'll research him though). But any man or woman willing to drop that much on a bet should be taken seriously.

Especially when the bet concerns something so serious.

if you were an economist, then you know that the market is just coming off an all-time high, and that the market fluctuates, and the FED is winding down its injection of money through bond buying. Soros going short doesn't seem like it's a big secret strategy. hedge funds have been moving in that direction too. Soros is #15 on the Forbes 400 list of the wealthiest people, most of the others are in favor of screwing over the little guy...maybe the top 4 billionaires of the Walton family, and the Koch bros would be good examples of the wealthy wanting to control the lives of the little guy....
www.forbes.com...:2_sort:0_direction:asc_search:_filter:All%20industries_filter:All%20states_filter:All%20categories

Originally posted by FlyersFan

Soros Places 1.25 Billion dollar bet on stock market collapse

Soros also donated big money to Chris Christies campaign war chest. So does this mean that Soros is putting players in place to cause a stock market collapse so he can collect a win on his 1.25 Billion $$ bet?? Interesting twist to think about ....

"Freedom to Fascism" tells the history very well on market manipulation.
that video should have a regular spot on the ATS home page instead of the usless videos that
kid made.

Originally posted by andy06shake
One of question springs to mind.

If indeed the markets crash, he wins the bet and money becomes worthless, who is going to be able to pay out and what would be the point?

edit on 17-8-2013 by andy06shake because: (no reason given)

maybe he has it contracted to assume property or physical gold rewards.

Soros bought 1.5 million SPY puts. No one knows the strike prices but I would guess a couple of dollars a piece. That would mean he took a $3.75 million stake, not the 1.25 billion that is being bandied about. Assuming Soros is worth $10 billion, this would mean that he bet less than 1% of his money on these SPY puts. For a portfolio of Soros size these could be viewed at best as insurance against his other holdings, at worst a small spec play. .

reply to post by Lil Drummerboy


"maybe he has it contracted to assume property or physical gold rewards."

Cheers buddy that at least makes a little more sense.

Certainly would not bode well for Joe Public all the same!

reply to post by andy06shake
Agreed,
however people like soros dont really care about joe public,. only financial return.
If they really did care, they would end the deficit.

Well this is a 100% indicator that the market is about to tank huge. Soros does not make a bet like this unless it's a slam dunk.

People heavily invested in the market are about to get a huge shock.

reply to post by Realtruth


Well I wouldn't say that anything in the market is 100%.... it is a battlefield ruled by witchcraft and deception. I would take this as one of many indicators that don't guarantee ruin, but do whisper rather harshly together.

Originally posted by joeraynor
reply to post by Realtruth

 

Well I wouldn't say that anything in the market is 100%.... it is a battlefield ruled by witchcraft and deception. I would take this as one of many indicators that don't guarantee ruin, but do whisper rather harshly together.

Yea your right Soros always puts a billion of his money on something that is going to fail.

I can't see a billionaire that has made most of his money, on the coattails of markets crashing, banks failing, and corporations on the verge of ruin, if something is in the balance of falling over the edge you can bet Soros will help push it over.

Chalk this one up and mark your calendars, cause some big boys are going to short this market all the way down to a new low level.