4.7 quake right in the Toba supervolcano caldera... ruh roh

reply to post by TrueAmerican


I noticed that huge island in the middle of the lake, what I didn't get was that it was rising but thanks!

Talk about loving & hating a thread all at the same time... I love the topic of super volcanos, but i hate the idea of one bursting.... There are very few events today that can push our race to the brink of being extinct and supervolcanos are definitely one of those events... Lets hope that this was just a little hiccup and nothing more...

Following are the last three days of webicorder plots from station PS.PSI, right at Lake Toba. Note that since there ARE plots, and thus the station is putting out data, then I was likely correct about live data not being received right now being an IWS issue. Can't be sure, but I think so.

Anyways, look at the activity here, and note the smaller ones I was talking about, that USGS has not reported on (probably because they are less than 4.5):

7/4/13


7/5/13


7/6/13

So.... can someone tell me what they predict could happen if the quakes continue?

Some fun facts.

Last time this thing blew was ~70 thousand years ago.
It is attributed to having caused a bottleneck in the evolution of many mammals, including humans.
It covered all of South Asia with volcanic ash.
Its volcanic winter lasted roughly a decade and it caused a millennium long cooling episode.

Chances are we'd survive as a species, as we did in the past, but modern civilization would be devastated. Then again, we can't really survive without technology anymore, at least in most developed nations, and as such most of the developed world would likely die off, leaving only cultures who have yet to lose their way with nature to persevere and propagate our species.

Many comments about keeping an eye out. But in reality, what could anyone do about something that big if it is in fact super volcano stuff No matter how much we watch it, we have absolutely no control over it. But thanks for the thread anyway OP.
Taking a different look at it. It will get rid of the people smuggler problem

S&F but I haven't seen Puterman chime in yet. I refrain from panic and incontinence until then.

Originally posted by GoldenRuled
S&F but I haven't seen Puterman chime in yet. I refrain from panic and incontinence until then.

thanks for the S&F, but, umm- someone threw away the keys to the locks chaining PuterMan and muzzy profusely to the Quake Watch thread. You'll never get them out of there before Toba erupts.

And besides, who's panicking and got a full bladder? I think I was clear that I am not even nervous yet, in a previous post in this thread.



It's just a thread on an internet forum. No, the world hasn't ended...yet.

reply to post by bjarneorn


There is that pesky geological record.

Planet Earth gets warm, ice melts, oceans rise, super volcano erupts, new ice age.

Looks like a pattern to me.

Scary stuff if this monstrosity ever did blow its top.

On the plus side, it would certainly prove once and for all (or disprove) the theory of "nuclear winter"...

hey guys ceck this out..

Date Time Magnitude Depth 2013-07-05 16:54:39 4.7 2 Km 2013-07-05 16:54:39 4.7 15.90 Km 2013-03-04 16:10:03 4.6 132.10 Km 2013-02-18 12:01:48 4.7 127 Km 2013-02-18 12:01:48 4.7 127.00 Km 2013-02-09 02:50:38 4.7 158.10 Km 2013-02-09 02:50:38 4.7 160 Km 2012-09-29 20:19:09 4.4 102 Km 2012-08-27 09:01:23 5.3 151.20 Km 2012-08-27 09:01:23 5.2 146 Km Details of Supervolcano VEI Index: 8 Name: Lake Toba Volcano ID: 0601-09= Country: IDN Location: Northern Sumatra Diameter: ~2,800 km� Last Eruption: ~74,000 years ago Lake Toba (Indonesian: Danau Toba) is a lake and supervolcano, 100 kilometres long and 30 kilometres wide, and 505 metres (1,666 ft) at its deepest point.

source hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/read/index.php?pageid=svolcano_index&svid=2

looks like not just singel quake..its swarm!!!

reply to post by cheesy


I'm guessing that swarm wise, it can mean/ lead to even worse thing than just a single earthquake right?

So it's turning into a swarm....Cool....or should I say hot.

We need some excitement around here other than negative humanity caused news. Mother nature is just blowing off a little steam, it's not like she is going to wipe the fleas off the planet or something. Maybe the fleas won't be able to hop around quickly for a while, that won't be so bad.

Good find OP. You sure keep an eye on this stuff. I doubt if it will have too much effect on humans, other than keeping aircraft grounded if it blows.

The Toba almost single handedly eliminated humanity.
"The Toba supereruption was a supervolcanic eruption that occurred sometime between 69,000 and 77,000 years ago at Lake Toba (Sumatra, Indonesia). It is recognized as one of the Earth's largest known eruptions. The related catastrophe hypothesis holds that this event caused a global volcanic winter of 6–10 years and possibly a 1,000-year-long cooling episode."

en.wikipedia.org...

Update:
Data is flowing again.

I pulled raw data on all of today (meaning I can go over it with a spectrograph), and it looks like it's been pretty quiet. This is necessary because the webicorder plots I posted are dynamic, and had squished all the data down because of that one bigger quake to the southwest of Toba. Didn't find really anything, so it appears to have come and gone, which is typical. Either that or they cleaned it all up pretty good. *cough*

*breathes tentative sigh of relief*

And also, no it never was a real swarm per se. Not like we get at Yellowstone, that is. RSOE listed other quakes from 2012. Look at the dates. That's why I recommend losing that link forever. There are much better sites. Like this one ( ), where a couple of us have real tools and can tell you honestly what is going on to the best of our abilities.

reply to post by TrueAmerican


Things could get messy with that one for sure.

Bookmarked the thread. Star and flag.

Keep us updated.

-SAP-

Originally posted by poet1b

What concerns me is that warming oceans are raising ocean levels, so what effect are these pressure having on the crust.

The Earth gets warm, oceans heat up, waters expand, super volcanos erupt.

These increases in planetary hydraulic pressures could move a lot of things around.

I don't mean to downplay the situation but your analysis is not mathematically sound. A few centimeters or even a few feet rise in global sea levels means a negligible rise in water pressure at the sea floor.

Water pressure increase by 7.7 inch (Global sea level rise since 1870) of added dept amounts to only 0.3 psi of added pressure at the bottom of all the world's oceans.

0.3 psi = 14.981 psi (air pressure @ sea level + water pressure at 7.7 in) - 14.7 psi (air pressure at sea level)

0.3 psi is even a small increase compared to atmospheric pressure at sea level which is 14.7 psi.

sources:
en.wikipedia.org...
www.calctool.org...

It is much more likely, an earthquake of tectonic origin awakening volcanoes.

Going back to the OP, it is true, that historically, we have cases of earthquakes of tectonic origin awakening volcanoes. Probably the most famous example is Mt. Pinatubo, an extinctvolcano in the Philippines where it was determined that the powerful earthquake of tectonic origin awakened it the year before it erupted.

It is going to happen.

reply to post by Kuroodo


yeaaas..thats right..just wait until the big one..and sulfur smell around the lake than boom..i am dead..

Wow, that is worrying. If that goes off the world is toast.