milky way may have 60 BILLION habitable worlds

Maybe I can hitch a ride on a UFO to one of those other worlds. I wonder if they have bacon there, I can't go if there is no bacon.

Originally posted by reject

If we say 5% of 3 billion had developed interstellar travel, would that be a conservative estimate? That would be 7.5 MILLION sources of UFOs.

let's not even think of other galaxies

300 billion stars in our milky way.
7.5million with spacecraft (using your estimate)

That means 7.5 space faring civilisations per 300,000 solar systems
Or 1 space faring planet per 40,000 solar systems

Now assuming we can travel between solar systems in 1 day !

The odds of us arriving at a space faring solar system is 1 in 40,000 hmmmmm

We would have to visit 20,000 solar systems before the odds match the toss of a coin !!!!!

At 1 per day and taking into account rest, repair etc etc this works out a travelling around
the milky way for about 70 years and having a 50:50 chance of meeting an alien !

The odds are the same for them. This means that only way of an alien visiting us or us visiting them, even assuming near instant travel, is for them and/or us to already know of each others existance. Roaming around Star Trek style is pointless event at warp 10!!! So, we, and they, have to have the technology to detect each other before deciding on our respective destinations.

So forget about inventing star ships. If we can't detect them the star ship is pointless as a means of visitation. Instead our first objective has to be to find a way of detecting remote civilisations. Now we know of the limitation of light or rather EM waves. So any viable detection method MUST be faster then light. Therefore if aliens are indeed visiting us they are detecting our presence using a faster than light method before coming here...........Ooooohhhh.

Originally posted by dodol
reply to post by reject

 

I wonder if they have different law of physics

You get different laws of chemistry at the depth of the ocean sea-bed. All those translucent creatures that you see on ROV cameras, will decompose and disintegrate if you ever place them in sample jars and return them to the surface. The physiology is just not designed to survive at atmospheric pressure.

Originally posted by yorkshirelad

Originally posted by reject

If we say 5% of 150 MILLION had developed interstellar travel, would that be a conservative estimate? That would be 7.5 MILLION sources of UFOs.

let's not even think of other galaxies

300 billion stars in our milky way.
7.5million with spacecraft (using your estimate)

That means 7.5 space faring civilisations per 300,000 solar systems
Or 1 space faring planet per 40,000 solar systems

Now assuming we can travel between solar systems in 1 day !

The odds of us arriving at a space faring solar system is 1 in 40,000 hmmmmm

... So any viable detection method MUST be faster then light. Therefore if aliens are indeed visiting us they are detecting our presence using a faster than light method before coming here...........Ooooohhhh.

That's twice that has bitten my behind. UGH...That's a copy & paste typo. I've been asking the mods to correct my OP for me. They haven't gotten around to it yet

MODS, A LITTLE HELP HERE PLEASE.

back on topic:

Now, why would you only be curious about interstellar capable civilizations such as yourself?

Wouldn't you be interested in all alien civilizations including seminal ones?

Wouldn't you want the opportunity to study all alien life available to you?

Earth doesn't have faster than light technology but we are already beginning to be able to detect extrasolar planets.

Now imagine a civilization that had a million years headstart on us, hundreds of millions of years, and possibly even a billion or more years.

Originally posted by undo
(pardon me while i freak out)

SO WHY ARE WE FIGHTING OVER THIS PLANET? The whole globe should be working together, along with all its races and its people, knowingly and willingly, towards getting out there and colonizing new planets. muslims could have their very own planet. so could atheists. and jews. and buddhists. and pagans. and hindus. and so could christians. and agnostics could come visit us all.

Because they, as in the higher ups ones, have placed us here, and on this war planet, we cannot leave, or similar ones (and we're not crazy glued to earth for our incarnations, its just one of many schools we can attend) until we become PEACE AND LOVE AND EQUALITY.

And not just war, we have to be equal, no need for money, banks, slavery or homeless starving people, waking up and not destroying earth and nature, really make other people happy, not be selfish. Thats when the next level is achieved.

I think a civilization would only have to be a couple of thousand years ahead of us to be able to travel the stars , look where we are today as opposed to two thousand years ago , with the exponential growth in technology and understanding of physics because of that technology I think its impossible to even guess at how technologically advanced we will be in only five hundred years ... should we survive .

The biggest downfall for any civilization may be itself and that may prove a limiting factor on how many species make it outside of their own solar systems but I believe the urge to do so will be universal .

There is nothing else out there.

Originally posted by yorkshirelad

Originally posted by reject

If we say 5% of 3 billion had developed interstellar travel, would that be a conservative estimate? That would be 7.5 MILLION sources of UFOs.

let's not even think of other galaxies

300 billion stars in our milky way.
7.5million with spacecraft (using your estimate)

That means 7.5 space faring civilisations per 300,000 solar systems
Or 1 space faring planet per 40,000 solar systems

Now assuming we can travel between solar systems in 1 day !

The odds of us arriving at a space faring solar system is 1 in 40,000 hmmmmm

We would have to visit 20,000 solar systems before the odds match the toss of a coin !!!!!

At 1 per day and taking into account rest, repair etc etc this works out a travelling around
the milky way for about 70 years and having a 50:50 chance of meeting an alien !

The odds are the same for them. This means that only way of an alien visiting us or us visiting them, even assuming near instant travel, is for them and/or us to already know of each others existance. Roaming around Star Trek style is pointless event at warp 10!!! So, we, and they, have to have the technology to detect each other before deciding on our respective destinations.

So forget about inventing star ships. If we can't detect them the star ship is pointless as a means of visitation. Instead our first objective has to be to find a way of detecting remote civilisations. Now we know of the limitation of light or rather EM waves. So any viable detection method MUST be faster then light. Therefore if aliens are indeed visiting us they are detecting our presence using a faster than light method before coming here...........Ooooohhhh.

Thank you for a very sensible post. I don't understand why everyone is so down on earth on this thread and this site. The effort and odds of actually terraforming another planet and making it habitable for humans are immensely low. For those that think we are about to destroy the Earth, I would think that the odds of successful terraforming should be zero since those planets are much worse off to begin with.

With respect to finding civilizations, I think we are going to be stuck with light speed travel issues for a very long time, if not forever. However, I think detection techniques will improve such that through light waves we will eventually be able to detect the existence of life on a planet albeit, it is a detection of life at a point in time in the past. However, I think the odds of finding intelligent life are a lot lower than those suggested.

If you look at our own solar system, there are three planets near the habitable zone and only 1 has life that we know of. There are so many things that can go wrong, planet develops greenhouse gases and becomes a furnace (Venus). Planet loses its atmosphere and becomes a cold lifeless desert with high amounts of radiation (Mars). Planet is struck repeatedly by meteors that wipes out life. Planet's magnetic fields do not protect life from radiation etc. Bacteria is hardy and I would guess it exists on 25% of the 60B worlds, 15B. Plant life on 20% of those, 3B. Animal life on 10% of those, 300M. Intelligent life that I will define as capable of written language ,5%, 15M. (And that is probably optimistically high.) Space faring,25%, 3.75M civilizations. Space faring is a long way from interstellar travel, if it is even possible given the resources. Lets say 5% of those achieve it at some level, i.e. they are capable of getting to one star. That is about 180,000 civilizations out of 400 billion stars or 1 per every 2.2M stars! There are approximately 1.8M stars within 500 lights years of the earth. Therefore, there really isn't even a 1% chance of finding one interstellar space faring civilization within 500 light years. There would be about 1 space faring civilization per million stars which is about 1 every 180 lights years. Obviously these calculations are guesses like everyone else, but, the point we are both making is that this will be difficult.

I think we should try to do three things. Figure out if there is animal life on Europa. That may give us a better idea of what to look for. Try to make Mars habitable. That is the first step to making survivable interstellar travel reality and this will be very hard to do, if it is possible. Refine detection techniques for finding habitable planets and potentially life so as travel techniques improve, we know where to go. If we can accomplish those three things in the next 100 years, it would be a good start.

reply to post by Badgered1


How I know that to be true.

Humanity is a blot on the landscape at worst, but there are sort of good guys and if we can turn around the bad it might be worth giving humanity a go, if not humanity will be wiped out soon enough.

It isn't a new science find but thanks for posting it, a lot of people don't know it, or are in denial because they don't want to believe there could be extra terrestrial intelligent lifeforms apart from humanity.

And to add that, the Milky Way is a minuscule dot in comparison to the rest of the Universe makes the possibility of ETI infinitesimal.

If there are that many we can all have one each
My monkey world will rule the galaxy Mahahahaha Mahahahahaha

reply to post by Badgered1


Good thing that humans on Earth were seeded here by aliens from other planets eh?

Originally posted by dodol
reply to post by reject

 

I wonder if they have different law of physics

Probably not.

Originally posted by theabsolutetruth
It isn't a new science find but thanks for posting it, a lot of people don't know it, or are in denial because they don't want to believe there could be extra terrestrial intelligent lifeforms apart from humanity.

And to add that, the Milky Way is a minuscule dot in comparison to the rest of the Universe makes the possibility of ETI infinitesimal.

edit on 3-7-2013 by theabsolutetruth because: (no reason given)

Agree, the the odds are against earth being the only place in the universe where life developed. Apart from its vast size, the age of the universe could have seen life come and go also. Fascinating topic. Not sure if we will ever meet any tho, the distances between star systems are so great, that even if you could master interstellar travel, the time it takes would make such pointless. ie say you raveled to the nearest star system at light speed by the time you returned to earth, thousands of years would have passed.

reply to post by Redarguo

the distances between star systems are so great, that even if you could master interstellar travel, the time it takes would make such pointless.

Perhaps not , it is theoretically possible to warp space time using an Alcubierre warp drive which it is believed would allow travel at up to 10 times the speed of light , there are people working on the idea right now and while its still theory for us it may be reality for others out there

An Alcubierre warp drive would involve a football-shape spacecraft attached to a large ring encircling it. This ring, potentially made of exotic matter, would cause space-time to warp around the starship, creating a region of contracted space in front of it and expanded space behind.

Meanwhile, the starship itself would stay inside a bubble of flat space-time that wasn't being warped at all. "Everything within space is restricted by the speed of light," explained Richard Obousy, president of Icarus Interstellar, a non-profit group of scientists and engineers devoted to pursuing interstellar spaceflight. "But the really cool thing is space-time, the fabric of space, is not limited by the speed of light." With this concept, the spacecraft would be able to achieve an effective speed of about 10 times the speed of light, all without breaking the cosmic speed limit.
www.space.com...

Science fiction may one day become science fact .

reply to post by gortex


Cool, I love this stuff. Tnx

I've had a subsequent thought also, perhaps you could have a space ship colony also for no other purpose but exploration. They would never return, but would allow humans to spread.


Yeah sometime science is stranger than fiction.

This is all incredible and mindblowing of course. But it also deepens the mystery as to where are all the aliens? As someone pointed out there should be many intelligent species at various stages of technological advancement, and yet we see 0 evidence of their existence. Makes you wonder if something is killing them all off..

reply to post by Atzil321

But it also deepens the mystery as to where are all the aliens?

It could be that we are in a quite back water of the Galaxy and there just isn't much going on here , where as closer to the center where the planetary systems are more numerous and less spaced it maybe a hive of activity .


Dependent on what's occurring in there we could be lucky or unlucky to be where we are
Perhaps the quite life is better and more importantly safer .

Hi,

I think its more like 87billion worlds or 87million civilizations, not sure, 87 something.
Well thats the number i had in a dream one time that was pretty vivid. It felt 100% true when i had the dream, any number is only a guess i suppose.

reply to post by Unity_99


Unless we were placed here and encourage to harness and master are warrior skills, to be used against other alien races. Centuries of war and terror would undoubtedly , make for a formal weapon that could be wielded by the race that seeded us here. Why fight yourselves when you can make earthers do it for you? Our rock called earth could just be a big intergalactic training camp. It could also be used for experimental bio-warfare as well.