Stock Collapse or Correction?

A few weeks ago I posted on a thread about how I expected June, specifically this week, to show major volatility and losses. Just to be clear, I do not sell stock nor gold or anything else and I don't even own stock; but, I managed very large sums of money for a long time.

Tomorrow is what is known as the Quadruple or Triple Witching Hour on Wall Street. It means that a series of financial bets must be ended and made again. Wikipedia - Triple witching hour. The question is how this could all play out. Lets assume that lots of investors were betting on a bad market, if they bet against the market, they stand to make a whole lot of money if the market fails. An alternative is that they sold off their options today and they will push the market to recover after having reinvested. Hard to say without knowing who sold their options and what they did with the money. Here is what you should know, it has the chance of being very volatile.

Right now as I write this the Asian and Australian markets are all getting battered. This is not the end, that comes later and over time. There will be a collapse, it may start in China because of the debt bubble or in the US because of the bond bubble, it really doesn't matter where it begins or who gets the blame. The biggest question is how will we all respond when the banks internationally fail? How will we all respond when as in Cyprus, we all have to take a "haircut"? I hope we all respond with restraint. I believe the current financial system is completely gamed and corrupt. I believe the coming system may be better in those respects; but, will result in a loss of autonomy and freedom.

and the oil price is still rise! in my country gasoline (Premium) Price is rise 30% ..thats creazy!

reply to post by AQuestion

What generally goes up, comes down and the stock market is no different. I kept on expecting the market to be making (at the very least) some type of correction, but it kept on going up. I hope this is only a correction, but I also think their a lot going on behind the scene. I guess we'll just have to wait and see how this all plays out.

Well the market grew because of great economic fundamentals, you know? It is now falling because of deteriorating funda..... wait!

Oh that's right, it's falling because of Fed Reserve announcing it will wind down its monetary policy and end it next year.

Something is with this picture.

Personally I just think the market is adjusting to the Fed Reserve announcement, but the real time bomb is as you mention, China's credit squeeze and the US bond bubble.

Now if something goes off the rails here then it is going to get interesting. Unlike 2008, governments are far more debt laden and central bank policy tools fatigued with some showing exhaustion.

The next crisis could well mark a global reset in finance.

[insert whatever theory that could be birthed subsequently into this space here]

The "gravy train" is going off the rails. Once interest rates begin creeping up, fewer people will be able to secure credit for... Anything.

Originally posted by cheesy
and the oil price is still rise! in my country gasoline (Premium) Price is rise 30% ..thats creazy!

Dear cheesy,

Sorry but I don't where you live. Oil went down in the US as did gold.

reply to post by surrealist


Dear surrealist,

Now if something goes off the rails here then it is going to get interesting. Unlike 2008, governments are far more debt laden and central bank policy tools fatigued with some showing exhaustion. The next crisis could well mark a global reset in finance.

And this is what the reset looks like. FDIC - FDIC and Bank of England Announce Enhanced Cooperation in Resolving Troubled Cross-border Financial Institutions. It calls for international bail-ins.

Yahoo - Reuters - Euro ministers to decide direct bank recapitalization rules on Thursday

Europe, England, America and Canada have already agreed on what they will do WHEN the banks fail, it is called a bail in. That will be the beginning of the reset, the second part comes when IMF plan known as the Chicago Plan Revisited is put into place.

Originally posted by Q33323
The "gravy train" is going off the rails. Once interest rates begin creeping up, fewer people will be able to secure credit for... Anything.

Dear Q33323,

Because the banks have situated themselves in short term debt instruments, a rise interest rates may bankrupt them.

I'm not an economist, own no stocks, and only a little bit of silver. This is just my opinion.

This a correction, but is the beginning of a downward trend in the markets. There will be up periods and downturns, but a downward trend overall. Word is that the fed will be slowing down on the life support, which would slow down the economy overall.

Commodities are on sale. Silver is selling at prices not seen in quite a while. I'm increasing the rate at which I'm buying silver eagles.

I don't have the money to buy stocks now, or id buy in.

Originally posted by RidgeWalker

This a correction, but is the beginning of a downward trend in the markets. There will be up periods and downturns, but a downward trend overall. Word is that the fed will be slowing down on the life support, which would slow down the economy overall.

If the market was trending upward in recent weeks / months due to improving economic data and fundamentals, why would it come down in response to the Fed signalling winding down its monetary policy?

Or is it the reality that the only reason the market trended upward in recent months was due to gobs and gobs of easy money, and not because of an improving economy at all, as lame stream media were reporting.

Originally posted by surrealist

If the market was trending upward in recent weeks / months due to improving economic data and fundamentals, why would it come down in response to the Fed signalling winding down its monetary policy?

Or is it the reality that the only reason the market trended upward in recent months was due to gobs and gobs of easy money, and not because of an improving economy at all, as lame stream media were reporting.

The latter, Imo.

The only reason id buy in right now would be to try and take advantage of the peaks between corrections.

The Fed is pumping out 85 Billion a month in Junk Bond buying - Bernanke said they may tap the breaks at some point to 65 Billion a month & the market free falls.

Not rocket science to figure out what happened...

reply to post by AQuestion


i am from indonesia sir ^^v

For anyone wanting an answer to the title....correction......dollar down....stocks to 35,000....three years now since we figured this....old news....

Originally posted by cheesy
reply to post by AQuestion

 

i am from indonesia sir ^^v

Dear cheesy,

Best wishes to Indonesia. I would consider looking at how your currency did in relationship to the dollar. It is possible that oil went up because your currencies value fell against the dollar. Overall oil went down a bit.

reply to post by AQuestion


theextinctionprotocol.wordpress.com...

Have you read the above yet.

What about the $13,000,000,000 Trillion in debt?

When do those chickens come home to roost?

reply to post by steaming


Dear steaming,

I had not seen that before. Thank you for posting it. I will watch the video in full. It is Friday night and I have some free time.

I feel a need to say something, we can predict the big moves; but, most choose to look away. A couple of years before the housing bubble crashed, I was asked to give a seminar in Las Vegas on the housing market. While I was never a realtor, I advised some people in the industry as a favor. I had taught someone, a mortgage broker, how the business worked and she asked me to explain it to others. I wasn't there to teach them their job, I was there to teach them how all the pieces of the industry worked together.

Most people on this site know me from my postings in the faith forums and many know that I preach. I don't get paid for that, I have a doctorate and make my money from business. My job is involved in understanding infrastructure. If you study infrastructure, you can understand what is coming because you always build the infrastructure first. If you understand the infrastructure that was built, you can figure out what is coming.

In preparation for my seminar I began doing some current research and didn't like what I saw. One of the key things to look at in housing is called the affordability index. It is so very simple, it is basically looking at the income spreads in an area and that determines what people could afford in housing. If 10% of the people can afford a $1,000,000 home then you cannot have much more housing stock priced at a million than about 10%. If an area is seeing an increase in people buying that are moving into an area because of a myriad of reasons, this number can be adjusted slightly. Then I began finding other fundamental flaws in the nature of what was going on. The market only got weirder and weirder.

I was not in the market for a house but began going out and looking what was being built and it made no sense. Homebuilders follow the emerging markets and we all knew that families were getting smaller and smaller and that the fastest growing markets were gay couples and single females. What I saw being built did not match the trends in purchases, they were building bigger and bigger houses and the prices did not reflect the incomes. This is even before they began accepting claimed income.

My seminar ended up taking two days and explaining to all those people how the housing market was going to collapse. Try telling that to a bunch of people who just got into the industry. The fundamentals demanded that the housing market eventually crash; but, then instead they started giving out credit to anyone as did the credit card companies to. They offered my ex-con, disabled relative credit cards. He was stumped by it and did not take advantage of their offers. He had gone straight years ago. Even my relative knew by then that something was ridiculous.

The market continued expanding; but, I knew what was coming and warned people in the industry. My partner began listening and wanted to warn her friends so that they could adjust their business models. She invited her mortgage broker friends to meet with me and they flew down to talk. I told them how and when the housing market would crash. At the time I didn't really follow or care about the stock market. Anyways, we had our meeting and they all told me how the boom could not bust because of all the money they had made and they had made a bunch. By the way, my partner never did any loans that were not what we used to call "full doc", you had to prove your income and assets. I made her promise me that and she did. Her mortgage broker friends told me that they understood everything that I told them; but, that I had to be wrong and then offered me a job. LOL, I turned down the job. They later all went bankrupt when the bubble burst.

After the housing bubble crashed, the stocks had to crash next and it had to take a couple of years because of the type of loans that people had been given. You know, interest only for the first few years or variable loans or the worst of all short term with a balloon payment in 5 years. Heck, it didn't matter because houses were appreciating and money was easy to get. At that point all one had to do was look at when the payments would need to increase to know when the defaults would begin.

reply to post by steaming


Part 2,

Funny I don't think I have ever written about how it all got us to now before. Indulge me please, it is sort of healing.

Knowing that the mortgages would fail, I began to look into banking more. I am a research analyst at heart and classically trained. I am also autistic and love a good puzzle. I started looking at a lot of things, it was a real eye opener. Then, then, I discovered the Austrian School of Economics and a little thing called an "Inverse Yield Curve" or an "Inverted Yield Curve". It said that it was one of the number one ways of predicting a recession or depression and you know what, we had one in America and one in many other countries.

Now if you go look up the "Federal Reserve" and that yield curve, you will discover that it is one of the number one ways in which the Federal Reserve predicts a recession, heck their computer models are built around it. We experienced this event and when asked about it, Greenspan said to congress that it was different this time. He flat out lied. The very few people that made the media and talked about it were all selling gold and not telling people that they had to report every sale to the U.S. government if it was for more than $500. Peter Schiff doesn't tell you that. I don't preach for money and don't sell anything, I have a job.

Anyways, I kept looking at how it all began, came together and where it is heading. The most wicked of all industries is the entertainment industry; but, Wall Street makes every effort to catch up and learn from them. All the information is out there; but, the financial industry cannot accept that things are going to change any more than the housing industry understood that it was going to change, they cannot imagine that the gravy train will ever stop, they cannot imagine life without stealing your money and being rich.

I cannot tell you when it will come; but, the currencies will crash and the stock market will crash and lots of things ill crash. Turns out the infrastructure is not all in place. The IMF, Bank of England and U.S. are ready; but, apparently the EU has not finalized the rules for what to do after the crashes.

Yahoo - Reuters - Europe unable to break impasse on who pays when banks fail

Why are all the western nations preparing for something while telling us things are getting better? You can predict the big things, the people who really understand will just never tell you and the people who work the industries cannot see it because their greed and livelihood depends on it continuing as it is, they don't want to change anything. Look at how the market reacted to the suggestion that the Federal Reserve might stop buying bonds, they freaked out.

Follow the destruction of the dollar and the corruption of all of our rating systems. Our financial system is mostly corrupt and the dollar will not be the reserve currency of the world in the future. We will have an international body set both in the future. Why should the BRIC nations allow us to be the financial back of the world when we steal from them?

When will things crash, I cannot give a firm date. I am not sure it matters on many levels. It is coming and that is for sure. What I can tell you is that it won't happen until the infrastructure is in place to bring in a new economic system.

If you wish to know what is being prepared for, look around you. Alarmists like Alex Jones and others see the military exercises in the United States and tell us that they want to kill us all and go to martial law. It is garbage and because most people find them ludicrous, they ignore the facts that they do present. People like to dislike the facts if they dislike your conclusion. Remember the mortgage brokers I spoke to? Same thing. We are preparing for civil disturbances when the banks fail and have to be bailed in. That is the infrastructure that is being put in place.

AQ

Interesting posts. I haven't read anything about the faith topics you speak of. From the sound of it, you hold to a Christian eschatology and interpret current and future events in this context? Well, so do I incidentally. And I hope the next big financial and economic global crash just happens to coincide with the rapture. But *calm* that may not be an event that features in your forward view, though it appears to me that you do hold to some similar forecasting on the direction the world will take once the current system collapses and the new is implemented.

Personally I do believe they already have the new infrastructure in place. In fact, from what I have researched, the infrastructure is already in place for transition into a style of world government. Only the political will is not there at present.

It is interesting to note that throughout the 20th century, quantum leaps toward globalization in governance and economics only came about following a major global crisis, such as the creation of the League of Nations following World War One, and the creation of the Bretton Woods system and United Nations following World War Two. Both periods marked a new world order at their respective times, as a chorus of calls for a new world order beckon for the near future, which will also likely be after a major crisis such as world war and economic collapse.

I continue to watch (Luke 21:28).