"This Is Your Warning", From NOAA Administrator

Looks like a very active season of hurricanes is ahead for the U.S.
The weather has already been extremely severe this year with the deadly tornadoes in OK, and even some in my area, which are very rare!

I just wanted to share this to give everyone a heads up.


Source:news.yahoo.com...

COLLEGE PARK, Md. (AP) —
Get ready for another busy hurricane season, maybe unusually wild, federal forecasters say.
Their prediction Thursday calls for 13 to 20 named Atlantic storms, 7 to 11 that strengthen into hurricanes and 3 to 6 that become major hurricanes.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said there is a 70 percent chance that this year will be more active than an average hurricane season. If you live in hurricane prone areas along the Atlantic Ocean or Gulf of Mexico coasts, "This is your warning," acting NOAA administrator Kathryn Sullivan said.

A normal year has 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major storms with winds over 110 mph. Last year was the third-busiest on record with 19 named storms. Ten became hurricanes and were two major storms. That included Sandy, which caused $50 billion in damage even though it lost hurricane status when it made landfall in New Jersey.
All the factors that go into hurricane forecasts are pointing to an active season, or extremely active one, said lead forecaster Gerry Bell of the Climate Prediction Center. Those factors include: warmer than average ocean waters that provide fuel for storms, a multi-decade pattern of increased hurricane activity, the lack of an El Nino warming of the central Pacific Ocean, and an active pattern of storm systems coming off west Africa.

The Atlantic hurricane season goes through about 25 to 40 year cycles of high activity and low activity. The high activity period started around 1995, Sullivan said. The forecasts don't include where storms might land, if any place.
Despite the formation of more hurricanes recently, the last time a major hurricane made landfall in the United States was Wilma in 2005. That seven-year stretch is the longest on record.

The six-month season starts June 1. Forecasters name tropical storms when their top winds reach 39 mph; hurricanes have maximum winds of at least 74 mph.
This year's names: Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dorian, Erin, Fernand, Gabrielle, Humberto, Ingrid, Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo, Melissa, Nestor, Olga, Pablo, Rebekah, Sebastien, Tanya, Van and Wendy.

reply to post by sled735


Looks like I might actually have to put up some storm shutters this time.
Hate when that happens.

reply to post by sled735


Thanks for the heads up! One question... Ohhh... SnF~

This year's names: Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dorian, Erin, Fernand, Gabrielle, Humberto, Ingrid, Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo, Melissa, Nestor, Olga, Pablo, Rebekah, Sebastien, Tanya, Van and Wendy

Who the heck comes up with these ridiculous names... They gotta pull'm out of a hat... Right?

reply to post by sulaw


Which ones are ridiculous?
They all look normal to me

I wonder if this is due to warmer ocean temperatures in the Atlantic.

Currently the Atlantic is warmer than it has ever been in recorded history, and this is most likely a trend that will continue.

Originally posted by poet1b

I wonder if this is due to warmer ocean temperatures in the Atlantic.

Currently the Atlantic is warmer than it has ever been in recorded history, and this is most likely a trend that will continue.

Yep! It is.

All the factors that go into hurricane forecasts are pointing to an active season, or extremely active one, said lead forecaster Gerry Bell of the Climate Prediction Center. Those factors include: warmer than average ocean waters that provide fuel for storms,

I been saying since last December that this would be a really bad Hurricane season. Here in DC we almost didn't have a Winter; there was hardly any snow compared to other years. As I recall there were a lot of "water" events last year with flooding and such. That water ends up in the Atmosphere and helps to drive powerful storms, hurricanes, and tornadoes along with the warmer temperatures. With all of this extra water everywhere just "sitting" around, I expect to see a large increase in the number and the size of mosquitoes and other insects.

They said this for this last two years, more hurricanes than you could ever believe, storms of huge proportions, and only one really mentionable, Sandy.

The year before, IIRC, nothing significant. Now weather are doomers, too.

reply to post by grey580


All of them. Why can't they come up with cooler names for these "Devastating" Hurricanes~ Like: Hurricane: Thor, Zues, Hades, RUN FOR YOUR LIFE IT"S A DOUSY!~ Something better than Pablo.... Who's scared of Pablo?

Olga is pretty good.... Olga's can be scary women.... Sebastian??? really? Because the Hurricane is upity? Or like LIttle Mermain Sebastian? NOBODY IS AFRAID OF THAT CRAB!

Lets name it Hurrican Wendy.... So everyone will think of the Wendy's Red Head~

Might as well name it Matilda to remind us of the book that little girl was in... maybe it's just me...

Strong names! Make you frightened names~ It's like they opened a baby book and picked names randomly!

Yea.... Looking at my response maybe it's just me

reply to post by sulaw

Hey, my name's Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dorian, Erin, Ferdinand, Gabrielle, Humberto, Ingrid, Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo, Melissa, Nestor, Olga, Pablo, Rebekah, Sebastien, Tanya, Van and Wendy. Then again, my parents were crazy.

reply to post by dontaskmeimfrommars


I just about spit Dr. Pepper on my Keyboard.... Thank you for that

Originally posted by Libertygal
They said this for this last two years, more hurricanes than you could ever believe, storms of huge proportions, and only one really mentionable, Sandy.

The year before, IIRC, nothing significant. Now weather are doomers, too.

They said it last year and they were right with their predictions. Last year, as listed in the OP, was the third most active hurricane season on record. I don't think that's being a "doomer" so much. More like using science to data to make a prediction on activity.

In fact, 2010, 2011, and 2012 are all tied for the third spot in number of named storms since 1851, the first year hurricanes were tracked and reported.

i live in a mobil home..now this is just a joke ok..i dont have the money for this or it ;might not be a joke...I need ..well...Pontoones for my mobile home..However you spell it....and an anchor...lol

Originally posted by eeks4
i live in a mobil home..now this is just a joke ok..i dont have the money for this or it ;might not be a joke...I need ..well...Pontoones for my mobile home..However you spell it....and an anchor...lol

All I can tell you is to stay alert to any warnings, and get out of that MH! Go to the nearest shelter until any warnings are lifted. Hopefully, when you return your home won't have floated away.

reply to post by sulaw


"Barry" scares me...

Let's not get excited or freaked yet, we still don't know precisely how the Bermuda High is going to look, it just depends on where it parks itself & how strong it is.

Generally centered over the Western Atlantic, the Bermuda High is one of the main reasons Florida has enjoyed a record seven seasons without any hurricane strikes, either bouncing storms to the south or allowing them to curve north.

On the other hand, it was the major force that pushed Hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne toward Florida in 2004 and Hurricanes Dennis, Katrina and Rita toward the state in 2005.

When it’s strong, the Bermuda High creates an enormous clockwise wind circulation over the ocean, which pushes storms to the west or northwest in this general direction. But where it’s centered has a crucial bearing on where, specifically, storms go, as they tend to churn along the system’s outer edges.

For instance, last year Hurricane Leslie hugged the system’s western perimeter, curved north and hit Newfoundland, Canada. Hurricane Isaac, meanwhile, followed the edge into the Gulf of Mexico and ultimately into Louisiana.

www.orlandosentinel.com...
More info on the Bermuda High: www.wunderground.com...

Couple that with the inability to predict long-term what the lows and atmospheric winds are going to do & how they'll effect storms, it could be a season of a lot of storms, but few, if any, landfalls. Or, it could be another Charley year with one landfall after another, after another, after another.

Just get your hurricane supplies in order, and assume the wait & see approach like normal

reply to post by howmuch4another


I was gonna see if anyone wanted to bet on that one Let's watch that one

Originally posted by howmuch4another
reply to post by sulaw

 

"Barry" scares me...

Barry scares me too, one of the guys that fixes the copy machines where i work is named Barry, and boy does he just rip those machines apart when he fixes them, he's like a bear. I hope tropical storm/ hurricane barry is not so bad

My wife's name is Wendy. If storm is anything like her when she is angry then I'll be evacuating this year