Severe Weather Forecast for Texas Today 05/21/2013

I searched to see if there was already a thread created and didn't see one. I thought it might be a good idea to start a thread for those of us in Texas to help us all keep abreast of the situation considering the history of the severe weather over the last few days in OK and surrounding states.

I live in Central Texas between Waco and Austin just to the west of I-35. Our Torcon for today is 4. Northeast Texas (to include Dallas area) has a Torcon of 6. Our local weather is saying we could possibly see large hail, devastating winds, and isolated tornados. It is suppose to start ramping up this afternoon (3pm in our area) and go into the evening hours. Head's up Texas. It may be a long and scary day. Take precautions and stay safe out there. God Bless.

I was trying to add a link to our local news page and forecast for today but I cannot get the link tab here to work for me to add the link. Very sorry. Here is the webpage. www.kwtx.com/weather

I lived in Texas for two years .. and Alabama for nine years. Both had lots of tornados. I remember diving into closets and covering my head as they went by. There were no basements because the water tables were too high. It was INSANE. We now live near philadelphia. We get tornados a few times a year, but NOTHING like we had in Texas and Alabama. And up here we have a basement and a table to hid under in the basement.

For the first year we lived here, every time the fire house blew it's whistle I'd look up to the sky expecting a storm to be coming in. Now ... 12 years later ... I don't even hear the whistle go off anymore. I don't pay attention to it.

Stay safe folks ... keep an eye on the sky.

Thanks for the heads up.
I am in Austin right now.

I'll keep my eyes peeled. Hopefully nothing will go down.

It's cloudy right now, been thinking it would rain for the last few hours.

Here's your link: link

I am hoping and praying this doesn't turn out bad. Everyone stay safe today.

This is crazy weather that we've been having these past few days. Everyone, please stay safe and keep a watchful eye on the weather.

Remember, you can never tell your loved ones enough how much you love them.

reply to post by ConstantConfusion3


Thank you Constant. I have a new laptop and I think it's just being stupid and refusing to let me click on the "link" tab above. Maybe I need restart my laptop and that will fix the issue. Thanks again

NOAA Storm Prediction Center

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0747 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0812 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN OK AND NRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 211312Z - 211445Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONGOING STORMS EXTENDING FROM EAST CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL OK TO WRN NORTH TX TO BECOME SURFACE BASED LATER THIS MORNING. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE ONGOING ACTIVITY...WITH AN INCREASE IN THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LATER THIS MORNING...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A NEW WW. DISCUSSION...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY THE LAST FEW HOURS INDICATED TSTMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL...ERN OK INTO WEST CENTRAL AR...WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED SWWD THROUGH SWRN OK TO WRN N TX. THE ENTIRE EXTENT OF THE TSTM ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ELEVATED INCLUDING THE LATTER SWRN OK/WRN N TX STORMS THAT HAVE TENDED TO BECOME UNDERCUT BY A SWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL WAA OVER N TX AND SRN OK WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS MORNING. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR ABUNDANT SURFACE HEATING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER...WHICH WILL FURTHER BOOST AN ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO BECOME SURFACE BASED. FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF WSWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS/BULK SHEAR WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TROUGH WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION. SWLY SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE ONGOING STORMS AND NEW DEVELOPMENT WILL FAVOR LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /NEAR 9 C PER KM ON THE 12Z FORT WORTH TX SOUNDING/ SUGGESTS HAIL WILL BE A THREAT AS WELL. THE LAST SEVERAL HRRR RUNS FORECAST UPSCALE GROWTH FOR ONE OR MORE QLCS STRUCTURES ACROSS SRN OK AND N TX LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ..PETERS/KERR.. 05/21/2013

NOAA MESO

reply to post by watchdog
Fortunately I'm too far south to be in the tornado zone today; we are only expected to get a bit of rain and wind (the wind has been blustering for a few days). We will only get the tail end of the system. For everyone "in the zone" stay safe!

You can keep check on the development of thunderstorms on the KCBD Interactive Radar. It automatically updates every few minutes.

There is also an option to stream live video from storm chasers' dashboard cams for anyone interested

YEs I love rain! Will it hit San marcos?

Originally posted by Casualboy100
YEs I love rain! Will it hit San marcos?

This is more than just rain, this has potential to drop tornadoes.

reply to post by Havox


It's been hot all week! At least we get cold air now instead of hot winds.

Originally posted by Casualboy100
reply to post by Havox

 

It's been hot all week! At least we get cold air now instead of hot winds.

And possibly this..

Vast Oklahoma Tornado Kills at Least 91

A giant tornado, a mile wide or more, killed at least 91 people, 20 of them children, as it tore across parts of Oklahoma City and its suburbs Monday afternoon, flattening homes, flinging cars through the air and crushing at least two schools.

Stay safe.

I'm in the Denton area, north of Dallas and about 30 mins from the Oklahoma border. I also have friends in Moore, OK and Granbury, TX - both targets for F-4s this week. Watching all the coverage from Moore and Newcastle yesterday... a 2 mile diameter tornado, that's wild. I've lived in Texas for 21 years of my life and I've seen maybe 2 tornadoes here, both mostly harmless. Considering I'm right in the target zone, I'm ready for anything today.

This afternoon and early evening is when ya'll in the path really need to keep an eye on the radar closely.

Even though your TORCON rating might not be high, if a tornado does form, it has a strong chance of being quite dangerously large.

I'm in the upper Midwest now, but used to be stationed in both TX and LA. Seen some bad storms in my day, but nothing as heart wrenching as all of those fallen kids yesterday in OKC.

Please stay safe!

Peace

Here is another link some may want to follow.

www.livewxradar.com...

I'm in west Texas, south of the panhandle. We have weird ingredients in the air today, all which will slide east / northeast. Much colder air, more moisture, and very blustery.

What happens here tends to go eastward. If it's slightly dicey here, it can become explosive as it goes off the caprock into the more moisture-laden air to the east.

The daytime heating will make these storms pop, particularly in the afternoon and early evening. Keep aware!

Stay safe, y'all.

reply to post by watchdog


I'm hoping that this makes it deep into Texas. I'm in Austin and continually watch these systems fall apart before getting to the areas that really need the rain.

When I moved to Texas from Missouri one of the first differences that I noticed was the type of preparedness down here. There really isn't much. We tried to find a house with a basement to no avail. An interior closet is about as safe as it gets down here.

Anywho, I leave you guys with my favorite link for watching it roll in www.goes.noaa.gov...

Originally posted by Casualboy100
YEs I love rain! Will it hit San marcos?

I guess I should've answered your question as well..

www.weather.com...

... EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS POISED TO ERUPT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...

Stay safe.

There is the possibility for some very strong thunderstorms today. The CAPE, LI index, lapse rates, and upper level winds seem perfect for powerful thunderstorms. There probably will be some tornadoes as well.