Sequester Was The Right Thing To Do: Dow Just Hit 15,003 : Private Sector Growing Economy

reply to post by OmegaLogos


Oh yes, and the world is going to end because some guy invented derivatives.

Dream on.

Wait so you are telling me that JP morgan's own numbers listing their derivatives exposures are wrong and or don't matter?

this coming from the guy who doesn't even understand what the gross domestic product is or that if you lose 50 thousand 40 hour a week jobs that pay a living wage and replace them with 150 thousand part time jobs that have no benefits and don't pay a living wage that you are creating a seriously economically untenable situation!

Further though ... are you just going to choose to ignore that china has seen a drop in orders from 70% of it's main export partners last month?

Or that the Baltic Dry index is off by a substantial amount?

Or that Oil demand is collapsing worldwide?

Or that the former powerhouse country's whose growth helped the economic ship maintain steerage power in the last blowup are now looking at less than 1% gdp growth per year (see germany and china)

Or that half a trillion of the gdp number you listed got estimated into existence less than a month ago for the US?

I could keep going on and on but realistically you'd have to be blind, stupid, or have an agenda to believe there is not something seriously wrong with the world economy right now!

And btw the indicators you are so proud of are at best tangential to real indicators which are not painting a rosy picture at all!

Most telling of all though is the ongoing adventures of gold and silver in the market.... While I"m far from a gold bug or silver tard (last I checked you couldn't eat gold or silver... nor wipe your fanny with it... nor kill people trying to steal your food and toilet paper with it :lol I do watch the precious metals markets for certain signs assiduously. Do you know why?

Because gold and silver are not investments... they are ways to store and maintain long term real wealth in periods of economic or social chaos! You keep them around so that when things do go back to normal you have something that has been recognized as money for thousands of years with which to start doing business with again while you and society at large pick up the pieces!

That being said though, If you've been watching the gold markets (and no I'm NOT referring to so called paper gold and silver which negates the entire purpose of owning precious metals btw even before you get into the fact that there are a hundred or more shares of gold for every ounce of gold held by these companies! but that's another story for another day) you will see that while in theory gold is at 1470 an ounce according to the stock market... it will be basically impossible to get gold for anywhere near that price if you want to physically hold it yourself... which btw is the only way to own gold that makes any sense at all!

Silver is even worse... with actual prices out the door for physical being quite a bit higher than spot price! Now someone is going to jump in and argue that you will ALWAYS pay a higher price for physical gold or silver because it has to be minted and etc... and yes I am aware of this! However where it gets interesting is that premiums on both metals have spiked quite heavily at most dealers ever since the april takedown .. (which coincidentally was eerily similar to another precious metals takedown awhile ago.... right down to certain key systems locking people out from buying forcing people to short an already dropping price to hedge because they couldn't do what they wanted and actually BUY more while the prices were low!) Now this is interesting because theoretically there has been nothing that has happened recently to necessitate premiums increasing as a matter of fact energy prices are dropping quite a bit and the cost of energy is one of the single largest primary drivers of precious metals cost to produce and deliver!

Premiums have risen however because quite frankly people are WILLING to pay the premium to actually physically have the metal in their hand! As a matter of a fact there is a buying frenzy in many parts of the world that is stressing supply lines quite badly... Remember what I said about precious metals and their usefulness in times of turmoil? Well here's your big hint kids... the big boys are telling you to sell while they buy up every last bit of the stuff they can find!

reply to post by roguetechie


You are assuming a Worst Case Scenario.

Here is a thought: They may actually make a mountain of cash on their derivative plays.

Did that thought ever cross your mind?

reply to post by TauCetixeta


Well sometimes miracles can happen and I hope for our sake that you be right.

Originally posted by marg6043
reply to post by TauCetixeta

 

Well sometimes miracles can happen and I hope for our sake that you be right.

Hallelujah ! I made a breakthrough!

There is a God !

If the US economy was doing good, I wouldn't be getting the feeling that we're about to take an even bigger hit than before. Gold is at the lowest it's been in 2 and a half years, but guess what? The price is still high as # at ~1400/oz, what does that tell you? Right now we're at a point where faith in our currency and faith in precious metals is stable, with our currency winning the battle at the moment. Precious metals have taken a big hit recently in April, and they've been on a steady decline since late 2012. Coincidentally this started happening during and after the election, I do not believe in coincidences anymore, something fishy is going on. I wouldn't be all, it's finally over or whatever, I'd just be glad we have more time prepare ourselves, stock up on precious metals, and learn to live more locally.

Originally posted by TauCetixeta

Originally posted by mactheaxe
All I got to say is, batten down the hatches. When this falls, its gonna hurt.

There will be no fall. The Stock Market is being held up by the Federal Reserve.

Haven't you been paying attention?

Yes I have, have you? The reason it falls is because the Federal Reserve, is going to fall. Australia, china, and maybe more are starting to drop the dollar for international trade. The value of a dollar atm is around .04 cents. Cmon man, get out there and look this stuff up. like seriously, go to youtube, go to google, make sure its credible, and type this stuff in. Because if you see what i see when i type it in, then you would know what I am saying is true. This is a injection of money(last ditch effort) to keep it afloat a little longer. Next time, they wont be able to stop it.

Weve had housing bubbles pop, many times. the car dealerships and manufacturers have all been bailed out. some closed up shop. When this money credit bubble pops, it is going to be the last one to do so. It is going to be devastating to our economy, and the worlds. Unfortunately, in all my research on this, this is what I have found to be the most likely scenario.

This thread is the equivalent of Sisyphus cheering because he's rolled the rock partway up hill.

The rock in this case is the international reserve currency war combined with the fallout from the banking corruption of the past 20 years.

At some point that rock will grow so large it's going to roll back down right on top of Sisyphus and drive him into the ground like a tent peg.

We'll be damn lucky to get out of this without another World War at this point. As smart as we seem to think we are we also sure seem to like repeating history and right now the rest of the World looks a lot like pre-WW2 Germany and America looks a lot like, well pre-WW2 America.

That's not even getting into the 1 World Govt conspiracies and how amazing it is that events seem to fall in place that match it like miracles from the sky.

If/ When Gold hits 7k per ounce we'll know we're well and truly #ed.

The biggest problem (and reason) that the economy is growing so well, is that businesses are still operating in a "we are in a recession" mode. Employees still feel a sense of fear.. that there are no jobs, and that they have to be happy with whatever their employer gives them, while companies rake in huge piles of $$$.

Originally posted by TauCetixeta
The private sector is growing the U.S. Economy at an acceptable rate. Reigning in spending

with the Sequester was the right thing to do. As of April 2013 the U.S. GDP = $16 Trillion !

The USA is an economic superpower.

Write this down: U.S. Stock Market jumps over 15,000 on May 3, 2013.

Fox Business Confirms it!

sorry to burst your bubble pal but I dont think anybody is buying what your selling

Bettr run back to your masters and tell them the peons are waking up. But you know how well they take bad news right so i wouldnt stick around too long if I were you lol good luck.

My opinion, they're getting as much money thrown in the system as they can before it crashes. Im willing to bet even, Its a planned event, they know when. That's just my opinion though.

reply to post by TiM3LoRd


I tell you, is so easy for the government to manufacture data is not funny, many are forgetting that the latest scam against the working class is been played with the immigration bill.

If the governmentt is trying to sell to the unemployed legal citizens in Americans that we need 13 million illegals to get legalized as citizens it can not have the unemployment numbers in the crapper.

Because what the bill also have is the benefit of 33 million work permits for the ones that will not qualified for legal status but live in the US.

Now you have it.

Ok maybe you just don't get it...

THing is about ALL financial instruments like derivatives is that for One group to win and "make a pile of money" other groups must "lose a pile of money".

That is the thing you are not getting and are refusing to get! That and the fact that by creating these massive bets like this the ONLY and I mean ONLY real solution is going to be to print enough money to cover at least some of the bets when the piper comes calling....

Now genius riddle me this... If the entire GDP of the US is sitting at a notional 16 trillion dollars and we have to print another 100 trillion dollars in liquidity to paper over yet another market explosion... did any more TANGIBLE GOODS AND SERVICES MAGICALLY COME INTO BEING DUE TO THIS 100 TRILLION DOLLAR BET?

If you answered no you'd be correct!!!

Now .... what this means in REAL terms, as in for the guy on the street, is that in one pen stroke every dollar you have in your pocket will buy between 1/7 and 1/8 as much crap because there is now 8 times as many dollars out there but STILL THE SAME AMOUNT OF STUFF!!

Do you see the problem here? Do you think your boss is going to wake up that day and give you a 700% raise?

Have actual hard dollar wages even come close to keeping up with inflation since the 1990's?

I'll give you a hint... the answer to all of these is NO!!!

I'll give you an example... in the tech support industry the starting wages at most companies for an entry level tech were around 11 dollars an hour in the area I lived in... now at that time gas was .89 cents a gallon for a couple weeks a year in mid january and NEVER more than a buck fifty a gallon the rest of the year. Now do you know what the starting wage for tech support jobs in that area is? 10 dollars an hour!

Yes that's right pookie the actual dollars per hour for the job has dropped by a little under ten percent while staple goods like gasoline have more than TRIPLED IN PRICE!!

I mean I got pages and threads ago that the crux of your argument basically came down to ... I don't understand the actual realities of the situation therefore the realities are not important! But that is not any way to live a life, run a business, or ensure your long term survival.

Oh and for everyone that is saying consumers are more confident in dollars than gold.... think again boyo's!!

When was the last time you went to the bank and they told you "oh I'm sorry due to increased demand we can no longer supply $50 or $100 dollar bills!" Now contrast this with the gold and silver markets where there are entire classes of gold and silver that they are having to stop production of to focus on meeting the over the moon demand for their most profitable mintings! Now if you are saying stupid people and or the masses may be more confident in gold than the dollar... you could almost be on to something (but not really even there!) But need I remind you that these are the people that took a shearing for the .com burst the real estate bubble and the other great pump and dumps that have happened in the last twenty years?

And you know what? People like that are ONCE AGAIN stepping up to the table to place their bets at the most crooked casino on earth!!

Realistically if you have ten thousand dollars to spend right now on trying to make more money and you have a choice between playing the stock market and playing low stakes games at a non indian casino ... you'd be a FREAKING MORON to plunk your cash down with wall street!

At least when the casino takes your money they give you free booze on the way down! Oh and hey if you lose enough with them ... they'll give you a place to stay for the night FREE OF CHARGE!

Contrast this with wall street which has finagled the laws in much of the country to where if you default on a primary debt or primary residence they can also seize a secondary residence to help "defray the costs of your writedown!" That's right Pookie! Not only does wall street not give you free booze or a place to crash for the night but they will ACTIVELY take everything you have and get you to believe they were justified in doing it because MSNBC said this is the only way to "force accountability on investors" well that is unless you're too big to fail that is....

Originally posted by roguetechie
Now genius riddle me this... If the entire GDP of the US is sitting at a notional 16 trillion dollars and we have to print another 100 trillion dollars in liquidity to paper over yet another market explosion... did any more TANGIBLE GOODS AND SERVICES MAGICALLY COME INTO BEING DUE TO THIS 100 TRILLION DOLLAR BET?

If you answered no you'd be correct!!!

Now .... what this means in REAL terms, as in for the guy on the street, is that in one pen stroke every dollar you have in your pocket will buy between 1/7 and 1/8 as much crap because there is now 8 times as many dollars out there but STILL THE SAME AMOUNT OF STUFF!!

Do you see the problem here? Do you think your boss is going to wake up that day and give you a 700% raise?

No. But printing the money doesn't affect all prices equally, because the velocity of that new money is low. It isn't being used for the goods/services/wages economy. Inflation in the real-world sector has not been high, and median wages have been deflating.

This is the obvious evidence the loads of cash are not entering the real-world economy.

I'll give you an example... in the tech support industry the starting wages at most companies for an entry level tech were around 11 dollars an hour in the area I lived in... now at that time gas was .89 cents a gallon for a couple weeks a year in mid january and NEVER more than a buck fifty a gallon the rest of the year. Now do you know what the starting wage for tech support jobs in that area is? 10 dollars an hour!

Yes that's right pookie the actual dollars per hour for the job has dropped by a little under ten percent while staple goods like gasoline have more than TRIPLED IN PRICE!!

Indians are making more money. They are competing for tech support jobs and buying cars. There you go.

Realistically if you have ten thousand dollars to spend right now on trying to make more money and you have a choice between playing the stock market and playing low stakes games at a non indian casino ... you'd be a FREAKING MORON to plunk your cash down with wall street!

Quite the contrary. The liquidity from the Fed's intervention is not generally flowing into the transactional day-to-day hard goods economy, because if it were, general inflation would be higher and so would be wages. It isn't.

The liquidity is going into the stock markets. The evidence is all around you. The 0.1% will benefit. You can too, a tiny bit. I don't understand some people. They complain that the ultimate conspirators of the "Powers That Be" are trying to lower the gold market and increase the stock market. OK, but in that case, why buy gold and sell stocks? Simple masochism? I'm not going to fight the Fed.

I'm not saying I agree with this policy, but it is the reality. By contrast, if the Fed printed money and actually gave it to regular people, instead of giving it to banks and letting them borrow at 0%, the effect on the real-world economy would have been much greater. They could have used much less monetary stimulus with far greater effect. The problem is political. It would have to be implemented as permanent monetizing of temporary tax cuts---for example, the U.S. Treasury refunding sales taxes for a certain time, issuing bonds for the extra debt and having the Fed monetize them (i.e. buy bonds for cash and return to Treasury without demanding payment). Republicans would have hated it. (They oppose tax cuts which benefit ordinary people vs ones which predominantly benefit the rich).

Bernanke in his academic days talked about the helicopter-drops of money. That would have worked better. I mean, real literal helicopters with rotors dropping money made of printed cotton rectangles. Instead we got digital helicopters landing only at the banks and offloading the vaults.

Originally posted by thelongjourney
The responses to this thread reveal why conspiracy theorists are never taken seriously. The economic worldview is always the same: conspiracy theorists always believe that we are just moments away from economic collapse. No objective point of data matters except when it supports that thesis. Any evidence in favor of economic growth is always attributed as being a government conspiracy, made up, etc.

If you go back and look at posts on these boards from 2005 and 2006, when the economy was booming, it was the same thing. Its always the same thing, because believing economic collapse is nigh is central to conspiracy culture. When we hit DOW 30,000 and 5% unemployment - and we will eventually as all business cycles have booms - people will still be on here claiming its all a lie and were in a depression.

The whole reason why we are not in an economic implosion is cause of lies and deceptions! The same reason
why the economy did not implode in 2007- 2008! Now the feds can keep this up indefinitely but the real effects will still hit middle America with a vengeance! Real wages and inflation will take their toll on us, why do you think the feds are trying so hard to get rid of guns! once the guns are gone they will let food and fuel prices rise unobstructed! If you think they are costly now wait till guns are gone! when that day comes we will have nothing but torches and pitchforks to march on DC!
This is the future I predict will happen in less then a decade! You can call me a doom and gloomer all you want but America's prosperity is over! You can spout off all the irrelevant data you want but you can't stop regression!