Beijing’s DPRK Expert: Chance of War “70 to 80%”

Source: oden-hunter.com (pdf document)
I am trying to find some supporting articles for this claim as I don't know anything about the Olsen-Hunter Group and/or it's credibility. They appear to be a security/intelligence firm but that doesn't mean what they say is correct!

Based on his analysis of the successive stages of regime maneuvers and regime, China’s foremost DPRK expert Zhang Liangui judged today that the probability of the outbreak of war on the peninsula is between “70 to 80%.” With the historic Songun “task” being the reunification of the Korean Peninsula, Prof. Liangui writes that Kim Il-sung “founded the task” and Kim Jong-il built a military strong enough to accomplish it.

There is also some other info in the document that is worth a read. What they are reporting does sound logical and accurate... at least to me.

On my part - a 70-80% chance of war seems about right. I'm still not sure on the reasons why the DPRK has 'ratcheted up their rhetoric' lately (like my use of MSM phrases ). I believe that Un is attempting to gather strong support from the citizens of North Korea... but if that is all he is trying to do then he must be careful not to go too far. If he goes to the brink and then pulls back - his plan would likely backfire.

So then I think maybe he is trying to get concessions from the west by pressuring them... but I think he is smart enough to know that simply won't work. So what is left? Maybe he really is looking for a war. Maybe he is simply following in the footsteps of his father and grandfather by executing a plan laid out long ago?

I think the defensive steps taken by the US, South Korea, Japan etc. prove tensions are higher than they have been in a long time. I also believe the US is making preparations without being so verbal about it after reading this a week or so ago - CNN: U.S. reducing rhetoric that feeds North Korean belligerence.

"We accused the North Koreans of amping things up, now we are worried we did the same thing," one Defense Department official said.

This does not imply they are not going to prepare, it just means they are going to be much quieter about it!

Well thats the first analysis that apears to have some validity.......well have to hang on and see what they do and say for the next few days.......
The NKs seem to be willing to go the distance though......so i agree with the % as well................

I hope there wrong. the korean war the USA lost over 200,000 men. Millions of civilians died and Korea was not even as densely populated as it is now.

reply to post by camaro68ss

I hope they are wrong too. Hate to see so many people calling for war (especially here on ATS). A new war on the Korean peninsula would certainly cause massive casualties - military and civilians alike. Sometimes I think Un wants a war but doesn't have the nerve to start it. I believe he is waiting for someone else to make a move they can misconstrue as aggressive so that they can 'retaliate'.

I really, really hope that they're wrong. We really don't need to be fighting anyone, let alone N. Korea and possibly Iran.

This whole thing with N. Korea is giving me deja vu. I am reminded of the build up to the invasion of Iraq. The build up went on for so long that people I knew were actually gunning for us to topple Saddam. People seemed to be so sick of hearing about it that they just wanted the US government to "get it over with".

I hope that's not going to be the case this time. We all deserve a break from wars. It's time to put the weapons down.

This 70-80% chance of war seems to me to indicate that the North truly wants re-unification and believes it can only be accomplished through bloodshed, or the taking by force. With China mobilizing on the Northern border, and with their presence in the Korean conflict originally, it seems obvious to me their intentions.
My father fought in that war. He was seriously wounded twice in it nearly dying the second time.
He never talked of it save for one time. Mentioning only that the enemy could rarely be seen. He had no idea if he had fired at a Chinese soldier or a North Korean. How many had he killed? Unknown.
Now today......Storing away his Purple heart and the Oak Leaf Cluster, I recently got it back out to look at it. Couldn't bear it....gave it to my son. War is not like some distant dream. It is real, and real people die.
My father recently passed on,;
I looked at those medals, and at this 70-80% comment, and it causes me great concern.
I pray this man is wrong; Very wrong.
No one knows what the little fat guy is thinking, or if he is even in control, but one thing for sure.

A re-unified Korea is of no use to anyone if the area is uninhabitable.
I do not like the odds this man is making on this. I don't like them at all.