A possible impact of a comet with Mars in 2014

Some news from Leonid Elenin:

Today, at the ISON-NM observatory, new astrometric measurements were received for this comet. Based on the existing measurements, more accurate orbital elements were calculated. The results of the second calculation for the close approach show that the comet might pass just 41,000 km (0.000276 a.u.) from the planet’s centre, that is less than 37,000 km from its surface!

Considering the size of the coma, which should exceed 100,000 km near the perihelion of its orbit, it can be said with 100% certainty that the planet will pass through the gaseous envelope of the comet C/2013 A1. Having a very tenuous atmosphere, the surface of the red planet will be subject to intensive bombardments by microparticles which, among other things, might cause malfunction of the space probes currently there.

Observations continue, and will be stopped only in late spring due to small elongation of the comet. In the second half of summer observations will be resumed and we will continue to specify the parametres of the close approach of the comet C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring) and Mars.

spaceobs.org...

If his calculations are correct, this places the close approach an awful lot nearer than the JPL trajectory. Hopefully other astronomers and observatories will chip in.

reply to post by wildespace

That's interesting. With 134 observations (up to the 20th) the close approach was at 0.0007 AU. Now a single additional observation puts it at less than half that?

Doesn't seem right.

Originally posted by iforget
Hmm first Jupiter now Mars what comes next in that list? You're standing on it....

Those are only practice shot our in Dec 2013
Finsh your bunker yet

How many additional observations have been used to determine this updated close approach distance of 0.000276AU?

reply to post by Mogget


I got this reply: Leonid made 3 observations on Feb 27th. Leonid's latest observations and computations extended the observation arc from 74 days (through Feb 20th) to 81 days (through Feb 27th). Remember that this is just the nominal (best-fit curve) to the known observations. Further observations may move the nominal trajectory outwards. At this time he used raw observations (including his recent measurements) to calculate nominal orbit. Previously he used orbit from JPL.

JPL and MPC have just updated the trajectory. Nominal distance from Mars is now 0.00035AU (half the previous distance!), and the maximum distance has reduced to just over 0.002AU (from 0.0079 AU). So Leonid Elenin wasn't that far off.

JPL

In kilometers, this makes the nominal distance about 46,000 km above the surface of Mars. Based on the ephemeris generated by JPL/HORIZONS, the comet's total magnitude will reach -9.67 and the nuclear magnitude -3.13, as seen from Mars.

From SpaceObs ~~ Late at night, we received information what found two another archival observations (October 4, 2012) by Pan-STARRS. Now, arc of observations increased to 148 days! Based on the new data, calculations was restarted again. The collision probability decreased in 2.5 times. Neither clone from a sample of 1,000 virtual particles not collided with Mars. Final calculation is based on a sample of 10,000 clones! It shown that only 8 virtual objects will be collide with the Red Planet, i.e. probability of this event fell from 0.2% to 0.08%, but still high enough for the events of such scale. Minimal distance of close approach, according nominal orbit solution is 0.00039 AU or ~58,000 km. - See more at: spaceobs.org...

I can't get Stellarium to work is there a trick to it, i am running Windows 7 and can't even get the shortcut to open after downloading?

reply to post by whatnext21


Funny you should mention it, I just installed Stellarium on my new Windows 7 machine last night. No problems and it runs just fine. Is it possible you installed the wrong version? 32 bit instead of 64 bit or vice versa? Do you get any error messages?

reply to post by FireballStorm


I installed 64 bit, i know my machine is 64 bit cause my hard drive died a little over a month ago and know that they re-installed the 64 bit version. When i double click on the icon it does nothing. i r eally wanted to test it out but can't get it to work.

Newly Discovered Comet may Impact Mars in 2014

Elenin said that since C/2013 A1 is a hyperbolic comet and moves in a retrograde orbit, its velocity with respect to the planet will be very high, approximately 56 km/s. “With the current estimate of the absolute magnitude of the nucleus M2 = 10.3, which might indicate the diameter up to 50 km, the energy of impact might reach the equivalent of staggering 2×10¹º megatons!” An impact of this magnitude would leave a crater 500 km across and 2 km deep, Elenin said.

In all seriousness....given the potential amount of energy/force an impact would generate on Mars, what are the chances that:

1) An impact could change Mar's orbiting position/orbit?

2) Change the Tilt of the planet?

reply to post by Melbourne_Militia

1) An impact could change Mar's orbiting position/orbit?

2) Change the Tilt of the planet?

1) A chance of an imperceptible change.
2) A chance of a barely perceptible change

But I'd say a greater chance of neither.

Originally posted by Phage
reply to post by Melbourne_Militia

 

1) An impact could change Mar's orbiting position/orbit?

2) Change the Tilt of the planet?

1) A chance of an imperceptible change.
2) A chance of a barely perceptible change

But I'd say a greater chance of neither.

This. Even though the energy release is stupendous in human terms, when you look at the relative masses involved it's just a bug-splat on the windshield.

Thankyou for your responses....what brought me to the questrion was there was some talk when the Boxing Day Tsunami Quake that was a 9.0 near Sumatra hit, some scientists stated that it move the earth...only very slightly but a litle non the less.

One of the projected reports IF there was an impact of this comet stated that impact strength could be compared to a Magnitude 12 quake.

Mars is slightly smaller than earth from memory so putting 2 and 2 together I thought the effect might be greater.

Ofcourse this is a worst case scenario speculation.

reply to post by Melbourne_Militia

To clarify the effects of strong earthquakes. They don't cause a change in the rotational axis of Earth. They cause a movement of the figure axis. This affects the "wobble" of Earth on its axis a very small amount. But other things (like tides, and air movements) cause the same sort of effects on a greater scale on a regular basis.

A very large impact could affect the actual rotational axis. It would have to be a very massive object to do so however.

Originally posted by whatnext21
I can't get Stellarium to work is there a trick to it, i am running Windows 7 and can't even get the shortcut to open after downloading?

Maybe try running it as the Administrator? Windows 7 is notorious for restricting what programs can do on your computer. This doesn't happen if you install into Program Files instead of Program Files (x86).

Also make sure you downloaded the correct version for your processor and operating system.

Stellarium simulation, with an image of comet Lulin used for C/2013 A1. Although I imagine the coma and tail will look much bigger, occupying most (or all) of the sky. Simulation is based on the current MPC data, but that will obviously change with further observations.

reply to post by wildespace


Here's my analysis of the impact risk. I concur that it is a low chance event, but Mars is located close to the center of the uncertainty region so it's definitely not out of the question. Though it may currently be something like a 0.07% chance of happening, as the uncertainty region tightens Mars will continue to remain inside of it for some time I suspect (which will probably lead to at least a temporary increase in the odds of impact as the probability density increases around Mars).

reply to post by whatnext21


It would be very interesting and the last images from Curiosity would be rather special!

That said, i am actually a bit concerned about this. I realise i probably shouldn't be but would we not be potentially at risk from any ejecta from an impact that large? The maths and science involved is light years beyond me, to be honest (which just leaves me with an imagination often prone to flights of fancy!).

reply to post by wildespace


You have to wonder the following: could an impact of THAT magnitude affect the orbit of Mars, which in turn could influence the Earth gravitationally?,it is a small mass but that's an incredible release of kinetic energy, and I too wonder if we could get hit with any large, I.E. 1 km range ejecta? We saw what even a small object can do in Russia last week, imagine a rain of thousands of such objects in the form. Of ejection debris that strays into our orbit.... kind of scary to think about. We may potentially still be affected by this even though its not hitting us. Assuming of course the comet does hit Mars.

reply to post by openminded2011

You have to wonder the following: could an impact of THAT magnitude affect the orbit of Mars,

No. It's sort of like a fly vs. 18 wheeler.

or could we get hit with any large ejecta

That's possible, but it wouldn't get to us for a very long time.