It looks like you're using an Ad Blocker.
Please white-list or disable AboveTopSecret.com in your ad-blocking tool.
Thank you.
Some features of ATS will be disabled while you continue to use an ad-blocker.
Originally posted by CaticusMaximus
The numbers of meteors being reported is up almost 600% since 2005 ...
While these numbers are posted elsewhere, a thread on the subject I think is needed
Originally posted by Chrisfishenstein
with a little fear-mongering included.....
Originally posted by alfa1
Originally posted by CaticusMaximus
The numbers of meteors being reported is up almost 600% since 2005 ...
What procedure did you use to decouple that increase with the increase of internet users in that timeframe?
And also, the expanding knowledge of the capabilities of the net (the increase in number of existing users who learn about the reporting website) for users already active in that timeframe?
In any case, I'd be more impressed if it could be shown that amateur astronomers interested in meteor sighting have also noticed an increase.
Originally posted by C.H.U.D.
Originally posted by apacheman
reply to post by C.H.U.D.
With all due respect, from where does your assertion derive? You cite no authority, so I assume that it is your opinion that it is a matter of more people watching.
I can understand your skepticism. It's not just my opinion, but my opinion based on over a decade of observing, studying, and talking with both amateur and professional researchers. The same opinion is also held by meteor scientists.
The next logical question is what is causing the apparent increase in fireballs
seen this month? The key word here is apparent. It could very well be that there is no increase at all, but rather a marked increase in the number of reported fireballs. Mr. Hankey
has worked with the AMS in providing an easy way to report fireball sightings
and the general public has responded with a record
number of reports so far in January. If you look through the last five years
that the AMS has available, you will see an increase in
every year. The increase is certainly not as dramatic as January 10 vs. January
11, but that again can be attributed to the recent
change in format. I am also confident that no matter the number of NEO's in
January 2012, there were still be more fireball reports
in January 12 vs. January 11.
Interesting subject and I appreciate the contributions of Dirk, Mike, Wayne, and
Carl!
Bob Lunsford
Source: click here
Bob Lunsford is the Operations Manager/Journal Editor of the AMS.
Most large fireballs are green. And it certainly is not clear to me that we
are seeing any statistically significant increase in fireball activity. Like
so much in nature, meteor frequencies are described by Poisson statistics,
and that means we'll naturally see periods of increased activity and periods
of decreased activity. Our brains want to connect this to something
physical, but I doubt anything is really there.
Chris
Source: click here
Chris L Peterson runs the Cloudbait Observatory which is a dedicated meteor camera observatory.
Originally posted by apacheman
reply to post by C.H.U.D.
We aren't discussing an increase in reports, but rather an increase in incidents. Reports per incident have also increased, both due to more people watching, and the larger sizes impacting, creating more discernable fireballs.
Well the majority of fireballs and meteors are unseen by people - two thirds of Earth's surface is ocean, and much of the remainder is sparsely populated, plus many meteors are missed due to daylight, and the fact that most people are tucked up in bed during the best time to see them (night). Many are also hidden by the weather (clouds), and in today's society when people are outdoors they are usually busy rushing about and not concentrating on looking at the sky.
If most meteors are missed, then it follows that an increase in the number of people looking for them will result in an increase of meteors reported. You said yourself there are more reports per incident. That can only mean that more people are reporting them and/or looking for them. If there are more people reporting/looking for them then meteors and fireballs that were previously not witnessed/reported will start being reported, even if the rate of events remains constant.
Originally posted by apacheman
reply to post by C.H.U.D.
But don't just take my word for it: go look at the data you obviously haven't seen yet, or you'd know that what you've asserted is nonsense.
nonsense?
The only thing that makes no sense here is basing your speculation on raw fireball report data. There are factors you have to take into account, or the conclusion will be invalid.
You are assuming I have not looked at fireball data before, but I have, and I have also seen (with my own eyes) nothing of the increase in fireballs that you are suggesting in many 100s of hours spent observing the sky for meteors.
I am certainly not taking your word for it. My opinion is based on experience of the subject and observation over a fairly long period of time. Can you say the same?
Originally posted by FireballStorm
The trouble with doing that is that no statistical analysis has been done which takes into account all the other factors that will affect the conclusion. Without having taken into account these factors the results/conclusion is almost bound to be misleading.
Originally posted by CaticusMaximus
But there is no result or conclusion presented
Youtube is causing all the meteors!
So, when people saw "fireballs", not streaks in the sky before the last couple of years they weren't reported? Of course they were.
Fireballs have increased, the question is why, and anyone who would have you thinking fireballs have increased because of YouTube or iphones could be part of an extremely well co-ordinated agenda to keep the masses from learning "the why".
Originally posted by InfaRedMan
There are more people and more resources dedicated to looking for them every year. The data does not necessarily mean that there are more pieces of rock & ice hurtling around our little neighbourhood.
IRM