Could the Middle East and Asia Pacific Regions Become Two Distinct Theaters of War Simultaneously?

Just after Bush's 2002 State of the Union address where he listed the axis of evil countries, I began a little thought experiment.

Most of the first part of this thread is from a post I made here.

OK, so if you were to try and think like these countries (and Al-Qaeda at the time) that we were supposedly against, what would they do? Or what would you do if you were them?

Before I go any further, I DO NOT wish any of the events I describe below to take place, I am merely describing how I would act if I were the people in question below; only trying to think like them.

Iran and North Korea:

I'll start with the Iran and North Korea idea (again remember these were my thoughts back in early 2002). If I were either nation, I would be working closely and clandestinely with the other on all military and weapons projects and make sure I did nothing until the other did, in fact, my intelligence and military intelligence agencies would be working so close to the other nation's equivalent that any engagement or attack would be coordinated and concerted.

Remember at the time the U.S. were already in Afghanistan and there was strong rhetoric of an Iraq invasion force; this would spread the U.S. forces very thinly and given time, they would be spread thin and weary. That is when both nations would (in my opinion back then) begin attacks in their respective regions in a concerted manner. I expected that Iran would garner support from some Islamic nations in their region and North Korea would perhaps have China's support; don't forget Russia's link to Iran either. In my mind, this seemed like the exact thing I would do if I were a leader of either of those axis nations.

Outcome of this scenario? I think this scenario would cause such chaos that I wonder how well our allied forces could handle it. I don't know. I begun to think this scenario less likely in the last few years but it's always been in the back of my mind and until recently might be a possibility again. I hope not!

Al-Qaeda:

Now this idea came to mind, again not long after 9/11. If I were Al-Qaeda, I would be trying to send agents to western countries from countries/regions that have terrorist training camps and just have them say that they're fleeing worn torn countries and yes most REALLY are, but again, if I was trying to build a militia in western countries this is what I would do and it's more perfect if the vast majority are legitimately fleeing worn torn countries. It's almost the same concept as using human shields.

These groups would then take time to slowly gain supplies; not just weapons but food and other necessities that would be required and hard to come by once any conflict starts.

By the way, just a side note: there have been training camps found by authorities in western countries.

Once ready, these groups would each have zones they are to take and then cordon off. The attacks would need to be many, large (in terms of troops) and concerted (I understand I have a theme of attacks being concerted; that simply makes any response significantly harder). These attacks would all occur in the early hours of the morning so that most are caught off guard.

China and Japan:

Now it's 2013 and we have the China, Japan issue; while I doubt China would want to risk it's current run up to the next world superpower it will also want to save face, much like Japan.

Who are the allies of each nation?

China:
Russia
North Korea (to some degree still)

Japan:
US

Now for the enemies of the US:
Most countries except the US

But seriously; you have Iran, Syria, North Korea and of course China and Russia (to some degree).

Who are the US allies?
Israel (perhaps this relationship has been deteriorating somewhat of late), UK, Australia, NZ, Canada, etc.

So now what do the sides look like?

China, Russia, Iran, Syria and North Korea (to start with) Vs. Japan, US, Israel, UK, Australia, NZ and Canada, etc.

Is this now a possible WWIII scenario? I fear it has the potential.

How does it happen?

- Israel has moved it's dome missile shield to the Syrian border and allegedly attacked Syria already.
- China has "locked" on to Japanese military targets.
- Russia has now allegedly breached Japanese airspace.

I don't think it takes much; one false move could trigger a global conflict that could last many years and kill many thousands or millions of people.

Being and Australian, I will be interested to see which side we actually take. With the US economy on a downturn and so much money in trade with China; there is the faintest chance we end up on China's side. Yes, it is unlikely but I feel it is a distinct possibility.

If war breaks out on two fronts; one in the Middle East with the US, Israel, Syria, Iran, etc and one in the Asia Pacific region with China, Japan, Russia (they might spread into both theaters due to their geography), North Korea and South Korea and Australia. Where does Australia fight? Do we go with our biggest trading partner or become the US of the Asia Pacific?

Lastly, there's also Taiwan, Malaysia and the Philippines to remember but to a lesser degree.

I know this is a long post and I don't expect people to read it all in one go but I feel that there's something brewing.

reply to post by comfortablynumb

Al-Qaeda:

Now this idea came to mind, again not long after 9/11. If I were Al-Qaeda, I would be trying to send agents to western countries from countries/regions that have terrorist training camps and just have them say that they're fleeing worn torn countries and yes most REALLY are, but again, if I was trying to build a militia in western countries this is what I would do and it's more perfect if the vast majority are legitimately fleeing worn torn countries. It's almost the same concept as using human shields.

Sums up britain
This is a training brainwashed place like pakistan and india
Plenty of terrorists in the making, quite scary when you read into it

Uh..yeah...it was called WORLD WAR 2. Japan and the US, and US and Germany. So it already happened.

The reason why scenerios such this are not likely is that the nations involved can not support each other and are all ready surrounded by nations that do not like them. Lets just say Russia, Norh Korea, Iran and Syria all decide to support a Chinese war against Japan. None of them have anything that would help China in that theater of operations.

Russia - Russia's naval and airpower would be forced to defend itself. Russian forces all together are in a bad way not prepared for war with a modern power. They are trying reforms but it will be a long and expensive path. So Russia is bordered by NATO and that is where Russia would focus its forces to defend its territory. So Russia would not be able to anything beyond defend its own borders.

North Korea - They could invade the South in hope of drawing off US forces that would oppose China but, South Korea with the US forces already in the South are now more than a mach for the North. It would be bloody but would not effect the over all conflict one way or the other. In fact China would be forced to send troops to keep the North from falling and that is the last thing China wants to be doing at the time.

Iran - Iran could mine the gulf and launch some raids in the region but, the Arab States are than capable of containing Iran until a later date. Again nothing that would help China.

Syria - Syria is fighting for its life against is own people. Nothing they could do either.

Al Quida or other terror groups would be dealth with local security forces and would not effect the outcome of any conflict.

China - A war with Japan would lead to a few choices. none of them good. If they want to hit Japan they will be able to, at least at first but they would suffer high losses in both air and naval power and complere losses once US forces arrived in greater numbers. The other option would be to pull in its navy and airforces and just lob missles at Japan and try hold of Japanese and US air and missle strikes that would follow. Either war and ivasion of Japan is beyond China's abilities. And China would find itself cut of from global trade with a naval embargo they could do nothing to break. China also would face open hostilities from ASEAN and other Asian states. With India, Vietnam and Burma on its borders all with large armies that could pose a threat China's large static Army would be streched thin.

So what we have is a bunch of nations that can not effect nor aid each other. They also would place their own nations at massive risk with no chance of reward. China will mess with Japan and at worst they will have a minor skirmish at sea but China has nothing to gain and everything to lose to allow that to expand any further. While China and Russia do have some common causes they also are rivals in many areas. Nothing you read about in the West but they have lots issues in competing for power postitions in the former Soviet states in the area. They also have very close ties with US in many areas. While they may posture and lock politcal horns with US over things like Syria they have no interest in it ever going anywhere beyond words.

reply to post by comfortablynumb

Being and Australian, I will be interested to see which side we actually take. With the US economy on a downturn and so much money in trade with China; there is the faintest chance we end up on China's side. Yes, it is unlikely but I feel it is a distinct possibility.

China is also Canada second largest trading partner, and we have some deep economic ties with them, in oil, gas, mining, and forestry. And our economics are based on our resources.

It would break Canada to go to war with them.
We might have to remain neutral, and stay out of it

Originally posted by snowspirit
reply to post by comfortablynumb

 

Being and Australian, I will be interested to see which side we actually take. With the US economy on a downturn and so much money in trade with China; there is the faintest chance we end up on China's side. Yes, it is unlikely but I feel it is a distinct possibility.

China is also Canada second largest trading partner, and we have some deep economic ties with them, in oil, gas, mining, and forestry. And our economics are based on our resources.

It would break Canada to go to war with them.
We might have to remain neutral, and stay out of it

Maybe that could work.. unless things start to go bad,and then canada might be annexed. My is fallout 3 coming to pass? If the chinese invade alaska maybe

reply to post by MrSpad


Star for your reply sir. The thing I realise about this topic is that once you begin, it goes deeper, that is, the links and hidden links and like I said, they were only some possibilities that had been in my head unraveling over many years.

I think you're right that the likelihood for global conflict is low, I also think that. However I also think that the probability of global conflict increases significantly with seemingly little events here and there. It only takes a wrong move by one nation to draw many into it.

For instance:
South Korea Readies Army For North Korean Nuke Test

I know, they're all just little things but it seems there has been many more in the last month or two.

DPRK aka North Korea and Iran are working with each other, China has a spat with Japan over some little rock, Egypt Syria Iran Turkey Jordan all have a deal to settle with Israel. Pakistan Iraq Afghanistan all want US/NATO to leave Russia has a spat with US, India wants china out of Pakistan. Australia want US to leave Did i forget any country if so they have not been in the news lately, But this how it will come down US/NATO will face a mid east war US Japan Australia South Korea will face DPRK/ CHINA, Russia will sit back and wait for the dust to settle, but will side with NATO/US in the long run,staying out of mid east but coming in for the spoils of China

You forget a key detail that could play into Iran and DPRK's hands. America and Europe are about broke. If war kicks off, it could cause these countries' economies to finally collapse. With America, how can it mobilize its huge army if it cannot pay the soldiers to run it? America's Army is an army of state sponsored mercenaries and mercenaries get paid.

In fact if America's and Europe's economies collapse they may have their hands full handling their own populations that suddenly aren't getting their entitlements. They wouldn't be able to deal with problems abroad when their own people are rioting in the streets.

reply to post by Krazysh0t
you for get the US is based on the MIC or better known as the Military Industrial Complex, aka MIC.

If war does break out, then this is what TPTB want, if it needed the draft will be enacted, we are looking at history repeat it self as was the world prior to WW2 so is the world now... same major players US Japan China and Russia, the only difference is, the trouble making, saber rattling country's DPRK Iran Egypt Syria Turkey Israel India and Pakistan. Money is not the only driving force, war is too... only bigger

Originally posted by Krazysh0t
You forget a key detail that could play into Iran and DPRK's hands. America and Europe are about broke. If war kicks off, it could cause these countries' economies to finally collapse. With America, how can it mobilize its huge army if it cannot pay the soldiers to run it? America's Army is an army of state sponsored mercenaries and mercenaries get paid.

In fact if America's and Europe's economies collapse they may have their hands full handling their own populations that suddenly aren't getting their entitlements. They wouldn't be able to deal with problems abroad when their own people are rioting in the streets.

You are forgetting something. It is a volunteer army not mercenaries. The pay is just a bonus. In WW2 they were paid with other things than money until they got back to the states. And also who do you think they will blame when the economy breaks due to another country? They will take it out on that country in blood and treasure. The US is usually a nice place with mostly friendly people..well until you piss them all off.

Because using nuclear weapons on The NKs is gonna be hard or expensive?????