MASSIVE new sunspot rotating into view! (Number 1654?)

We had a M 1.2 class solar flare before hour probably coming more of M class soon ..

Max 11/0911 M1.2 Int 9.4e-03 J m-2

www.swpc.noaa.gov...

Communication between sunspot groups, they are connected by a tubular bridge of magnetism ..

and another one, m1 this time

Solar Update / Solar Activity is Moderate
Active Sunspot cluster 1654 continues to produce C-Class and low level M-Class solar flares. Region 1654, now classified as a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic group, produced a moderate M1.2 solar flare at 09:11 UTC, followed by a long duration M1.0 event peaking at 15:07 UTC Friday. This region will continue to be a threat for moderate to strong solar flares within the next 24-48 hours.

I am surprised that no one is talking about this....

Spaceweather.com Update:

INCREASING CHANCE OF FLARES:
Big sunspot AR1654 is growing more active. It is now crackling with M-class solar flares, such as this one recorded by NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory this morning at 09:11 UT:
R1654 is getting bigger as it turns toward Earth. Not only is the chance of flares increasing, but also the chance of an Earth-directed eruption.This could be the sunspot that breaks the recent lengthy spell of calm space weather around our planet

SOURCE

Spaceweather Update:

ACTIVE SUNSPOT: Big sunspot AR1654 is crackling with C- and M-class solar flares, and it poses a threat for even stronger eruptions. NOAA forecasters estimate a 5% chance of X-flares today. Explosions are illuminating the sunspot's magnetic canopy like flash bulbs at a rock concert; the phenomenon is evident in this 37-hour extreme UV movie from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory

SOURCE

Im wondering what kind of flashes there were 2000 years ago and back. We are here now.

Originally posted by kako187
I am surprised that no one is talking about this....

Spaceweather.com Update:

INCREASING CHANCE OF FLARES:
Big sunspot AR1654 is growing more active. It is now crackling with M-class solar flares, such as this one recorded by NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory this morning at 09:11 UT:
R1654 is getting bigger as it turns toward Earth. Not only is the chance of flares increasing, but also the chance of an Earth-directed eruption.This could be the sunspot that breaks the recent lengthy spell of calm space weather around our planet

SOURCE

The mainstream news doesn't usually report potential X-flares, but usually only the ones that actually occur -- such as the ones that occurred this past July and in a big one in March. The one in mid-July was aimed at earth and caused some temporary communications blackouts, so it was more newsworthy.

It's difficult to gauge how strong a flare will be until after it happens, so reporting that there is a big sunspot with a potential for substantial X-flares may be premature.

It is getting coverage on outlets such as 'spaceweather.com', which is the place for this sort of news.

Originally posted by Soylent Green Is People

Originally posted by kako187
I am surprised that no one is talking about this....

Spaceweather.com Update:

INCREASING CHANCE OF FLARES:
Big sunspot AR1654 is growing more active. It is now crackling with M-class solar flares, such as this one recorded by NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory this morning at 09:11 UT:
R1654 is getting bigger as it turns toward Earth. Not only is the chance of flares increasing, but also the chance of an Earth-directed eruption.This could be the sunspot that breaks the recent lengthy spell of calm space weather around our planet

SOURCE

The mainstream news doesn't usually report potential X-flares, but usually only the ones that actually occur -- such as the ones that occurred this past July and in a big one in March. The one in mid-July was aimed at earth and caused some temporary communications blackouts, so it was more newsworthy.

It's difficult to gauge how strong a flare will be until after it happens, so reporting that there is a big sunspot with a potential for substantial X-flares may be premature.

It is getting coverage on outlets such as 'spaceweather.com', which is the place for this sort of news.

edit on 1/12/2013 by Soylent Green Is People because: (no reason given)

that and the fact that it isnt something to be particularly concerned about...


Im loving all the recent (magnetic?) images above, very cool!

reply to post by MariaLida


I LOVE that picture! I could use that as my profile back ground and be happy.

Anyway, saw another thread about the Mclass flares today and linked them here, so any new info would be greatly appreciated. Is anyone with some knowledge and insight available to comment?

Thanks in advance.

reply to post by antar


Before 30 min one more flare of M 1.0 class but from 1652 ..

Max 13/00:50 M1.0 Int 2.0e-03 J m-2 ..

This sunspot is really cool to look at, but thats it people. It is big, but not scary.

It is not even a delta class. Beta gamma is just not a bad boy...at all! Relax, breathe, and enjoy the pretty pictures.

Here is the classifications for these things. Again, not bad.

www.spaceweatherlive.com...

Peace

One more flare of M 1.7 class ..

Max 13/0838 M 1.7 Int 3.0e-03 J m-2

Also from 1652 ..

www.swpc.noaa.gov...

reply to post by kako187


im getting a 10% x-flare probability now

Flare probabilities
C- 95%
M-60%
X-10%
proton-5% (will look up proton after posting this)

SCIENCE WORLD REPORT :

A massive sunspot known as AR1654 recently unleashed a M1-class flare into space, only one classification under the most severe X-class. The sunspot, which previously faced away from Earth, is now slowly turning toward it. Stretching about 112,000 miles, the sunspot is equivalent of 14 Earth diameters from end to end. Although most solar flares are usually nothing to worry about, M-class flares and above could cause brief radio blackouts at the poles and minor radiation storms that could endanger astronauts. These massive explosions on the sun's surface hurl electromagnetic particles into space.

SOURCE

reply to post by kako187

The M1 flare occurred on the 13th. The CME associated with it is expected to arrive on the 17th. It's a pretty slow CME so not much geomagnetic activity is predicted.


I have to say it's pretty ridiculous to say:

only one classification under the most severe X-class.

The classifications are based on a logarithmic scale so saying that is like saying a 7.0 earthquake is only one classification below an 8.0 earthquake. An X1 flare (the lowest of the class) is 10 times stronger than an M1.

Originally posted by Phage

I have to say it's pretty ridiculous to say:

only one classification under the most severe X-class.

Right.

And, if I may add, even if we do have an X-flare, not all X-flares are catastrophically destructive -- not even when they are aimed at earth.

In fact, Earth was hit by an X-Flare (and later a CME) back in July, and most people never even noticed:

www.spaceweather.com...

There were some minor communication blackouts and such, but an X-flare is not always something that affects everyone, nor something that people should necessarily worry about. Sure -- they COULD do catastrophic damage to satellites and the power grid, but they usually do not.