Volcano Watch , 2013

I have just checked on the infamous search function, so apologies if this has already been posted. I have just been reading an article in New Scientist about the Toba super eruption 75'000 years ago........and there could be some good news regarding super volcanoes for those of us obsessed with the things!

It appears that, climatically at least, there was little global effect following the Toba eruption - meaning that, in theory at least, super volcanoes are not necessarily really bad news for us as a species. Obviously though, that sentence doesn't apply if you happen to be living near one if it blows.

Anyhow, here is the link......

Super Volcanoes may not be so deadly after all

Mt. Cleveland is erupting again.

The current eruption of Cleveland Volcano, which began with an explosion this morning at 5:00 AM AKDT (13:00 UTC), has transitioned into a continuous low-level eruption. The activity is characterized by long duration airwave signals measured on the nearby Okmok seismic network, 120 km (80 mi) to the northeast. Larger discrete explosions occurred at roughly 5:00 AM, 9:17 AM, and 11:44 AM AKDT (13:00, 17:17, and 1944 UTC). Satellite and webcam data suggest continuous low-level emissions of gas, steam, and minor amounts of ash over the past several hours with a faint plume extending eastward below 15,000 ft. Satellite data also show highly elevated surface temperatures at the summit. Sudden explosions of blocks and ash are possible with little or no warning. Ash clouds, if produced, could exceed 20,000 feet above sea level. If a large ash-producing event occurs, nearby seismic, infrasound, or volcanic lightning networks should alert AVO staff quickly. However, for some events, a delay of several hours is possible. Cleveland Volcano does not have a local seismic network and is monitored using only distant seismic and infrasound instruments and satellite data. AVO will continue to monitor the volcano and issue additional information as available.

Alaska Volcano Observatory

Too bad this volcano is almost always obstructed by clouds and its remote location makes it impossible to monitor. Larger eruption could cause problems for Air Traffic, as a lot planes use North Pacific. Its a very active volcano which has erupted at least 22 times in 230 years. Because its very remote, its eruptive history is not very well known, even today its hard to know if its erupting.

reply to post by Thebel


You beat me by three minutes!! I was just entering it into my database.

Does not sound too serious at this stage.

Cleveland Web Cam - a bit black right now.

reply to post by Flavian


OK, so what are they preparing us for?????

Considering the effects of Pinatubo in recent history I am inclined not to believe them............if for no other reason that IF this is correct then the scientists idea of cooling the planet by subjecting us to tons of SO2 is out of the window as it won't work so well, so why are they pursuing it?

Plosky Tolbachik volcano activity intensifies in Kamchatka

Observers in Kamchatka have registered intensification of the activity of the Plosky Tolbachik volcano, the Kamchatka volcano observatory reported on Monday, referring to data of the scientists that work at the Tolud base in the immediate vicinity of the eruption site.

The activity intensification was recorded on May 4 “in the lateral outbreak crater,” the observatory specified. Lava is gushing there, ejected to a height of 100 metres.

According to the Kamchatka branch of the Geophysical Service of the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS), high seismic activity is registered on the volcano - the giant mount with a height exceeding 3.85 thousand metres above sea level, is vibrating with an amplitude of 3.25 microns per second.

The eruption of the Plosky Tolbachik volcano continues for the sixth consecutive month. In the early days of the eruption lava flows from Plosky Toblachik destroyed two bases of the Institute of Volcanology and Seismology that were located in the Tolbachink dale.

Source: Russia and India report

Sounds like the party is going just great and pulling great crowds of sightseers. The volcano is no threat to population other than the SO2 content in the atmosphere of course, but the warmist crowd should be pleased about that element.

reply to post by PuterMan


Hi PuterMan,

What i took from the report was more that super volcanoes are not necessarily anywhere near to ELE type events, as previously suspected. More that in a super volcanic eruption, anyone living within a few hundred kilometres is toast but the wider effects are not necessarily as bad as feared. For example, they seem to be saying that (in the case of Toba) humans in South East Asia had a truly terrible time of it in terms of initial destruction but also in terms of affected climate, etc. However, for the planet as a whole, these climatic effects were more short term. So whilst they would cause huge death and destruction, it would not mean the end of us as a species.

However, i also feel the report is somewhat lacking. I watched an at times excellent and at times basic documentary last week on the BBC about Icelands' volcanoes. They were looking at historic eruptions at various volcanoes and seeing what was ejected and what disruption it may cause today. What was highly interesting was that it is not so much in terms of ash distribution, it was more the gases from certain volcanoes. A couple of the Icelandic volcanoes have an extremely high Sulphur content and have in the past caused serious acid rain and gas clouds in Western Europe leading to huge casualties. They predicted that a similar eruption today from one of these smaller beasts would lead to a death toll over 100'000 in Europe alone (mainly Northern Europe, Britain, Ireland).

These things were nothing like on the scale of super volcanoes so i would imagine that if one of those beasts also has a seriously high Sulphur content then we could all be in trouble.

well looks like the mayon volcano in the Philippines is acting up again. 5 dead in ‘minor’ Mayon volcano explosion.

FOUR GERMAN nationals and a Filipino tour guide yesterday died from an explosion at Mayon volcano, according to the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC).The agency stated in its 5:00 p.m. bulletin that five others were injured from a group of 27 hikers on the volcano that sought help after a portion of the active volcano belted steam that reached about 500 meters above the summit.

Tour guide Jerome Berin, and four unnamed German nationals were killed by the ash explosion.

Another Filipino tour guide, Kenneth Gesalva, three Filipino hikers and one Thai hiker were injured.

The NDRRMC has yet to report on the status of other hikers.

The military has deployed two choppers for rescue operations, while the Philippine National Police has strictly implemented the six-kilometer permanent danger zone.

Albay Governor Jose Ma. Clemente "Joey" S. Salceda has banned activities within the volcano area.

"It rained like hell with stones," local tour operator Marti Calleja quoted an Austrian woman who survived the ordeal as saying.

"The rocks that came crashing down on them were as big as dining [table] sets," he told AFP by phone. - See more at: www.bworldonline.com...

it is blamed on steam with no magma activity. kinda weird but hopefully that's all it is.

Phivolcs Director Renato Solidum explained that the explosion, which reached 500 meters above the summit, was due to steam, usually from rain water, trapped in the volcano that eventually blasts out when pressure rises. "The explosion can bring about steam, which can be suffocating," he said in a separate radio broadcast. "There may also be ash and stones." "The possibility of steam-driven explosion is always there," he added. "However, we cannot say that there will be another explosion." No intensified volcanic activity was observed and Alert Level O, meaning no magmatic eruption is near, is being maintained, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) reported. - See more at: www.bworldonline.com...,-7-injured-&id=69813#sthash.ll8B4S3z.dpuf

Concerns about Yellowstone heating up yet again. The only thing that makes all the worry every few weeks or months noteworthy is the seriousness of a full scale eruption.

SOURCE #1 - Celestial Convergence

SOURCE #2 - KVPI 6 News

GLOBAL VOLCANISM: "Making Us Very Nervous" - Scientists Concerned Over The Future Of Yellowstone As Earthquake Activity Escalates; If It Blows, "It Could Destroy The United States As We Know It"!

May 07, 2013 - UNITED STATES - Sunday night’s earthquake was a reminder that we live in a geologically active zone. As significant as last those events were, another region some 240 miles north of its epicenter has the potential to change the world forever.

It’s not a matter of if, but when Yellowstone erupts and many scientists believe we are due.

Earthquakes are commonplace in Yellowstone. In fact they’ve had at least two earthquakes in the last week. Geologists use these quakes to collect data and they now believe there is a 37 mile long, 18 mile wide tube of magna that runs 3 to 7 miles deep, sitting beneath the park. It’s estimated that when this blows, it will be a thousand times bigger than 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens.

Long Valley Caldera is having a bit of a go in the last few minutes:


source (click on station MMLB)

0.8
3km ESE of Mammoth Lakes, California
2013-05-08 12:49:257.7 km deep
1.6
3km ESE of Mammoth Lakes, California
2013-05-08 12:41:298.3 km deep
1.3
3km ESE of Mammoth Lakes, California
2013-05-08 12:35:267.6 km deep
1.9
7km E of Mammoth Lakes, California
2013-05-08 12:34:158.2 km deep
1.4
3km ESE of Mammoth Lakes, California
2013-05-08 12:32:449.0 km deep
0.8
3km ESE of Mammoth Lakes, California
2013-05-08 12:30:567.9 km deep
0.7
7km ESE of Mammoth Lakes, California
2013-05-08 12:29:540.6 km deep
0.8
4km ESE of Mammoth Lakes, California
2013-05-08 12:29:377.6 km deep
1.3
4km ESE of Mammoth Lakes, California
2013-05-08 12:28:497.8 km deep
1.4
4km ESE of Mammoth Lakes, California
2013-05-08 12:27:498.0 km deep
1.6
4km SE of Mammoth Lakes, California
2013-05-08 12:25:557.9 km deep

list from USGS Beta

A little after the event but this just appeared in Smithsonian

According to NASA Earth Observatory (EO) an image acquired on 7 April from the Advanced Land Imager (ALI) on NASA's EO-1 satellite showed that Mawson's Peak crater on Heard Island had filled and a lava flow had traveled down the SW flank. The lava flow was visible in an image acquired on 20 April and had slightly widened just below the summit.

Source: NASA Earth Observatory

Smithsonian link

Break out the tinnies and watch the show Oz.

reply to post by generik


Smithsonian had this to say (which seems tame considering 5 people died)

PHIVOLCS reported that a small phreatic eruption from Mayon occurred at 0800 on 7 May and lasted for 2 minutes and 26 seconds. A gray-to-brown ash cloud rose 500 m above the crater and drifted WSW. Ash fell in areas WNW, affecting the barangays of Muladbucad (10 km WSW), Guinobatan (11 km SW), Nabonton (10 km W), Nasisi (11 km W), Basag (10 km W), Tambo, Ligao City (19 km WSW), Albay (19 km SW), and areas upslope of these barangays. One rockfall was detected. Seismicity and gas emissions remained within background levels and indicated no intensification of activity. The Alert Level remained at 0 and the public was reminded not to enter the 6-km-radius Permanent Danger Zone (PDZ).

According to a news article, the eruption ejected large "room-sized rocks" towards about 30 climbers, killing five and injuring eight.

www.volcano.si.edu...

reply to post by happykat39


This is not directed at you HappyCat


Dr Kaku is an American theoretical physicist, the Henry Semat Professor of Theoretical Physics at the City College of New York.

He is NOT a seismologist and I wish to hell and back that he would STOP pontificating in his usual scaremomgering fashion about things that are not his subject.

Why in heavens name the media keep on asking him these questions is beyond me.

The man may be brilliant in his own field but as far as the rest goes he is an idiot.




If you want to know if scientists are concerned about Yellowstone contact the people who deal with it - the YVO and do not listen to Dr Michio (the media's answer to everything) Kaku.

There has just been a 4.2 in Iceland and appears to be close to Grimsvotn volcano ......?

www.emsc-csem.org...

reply to post by Flavian

So whilst they would cause huge death and destruction, it would not mean the end of us as a species.

Indeed. To be honest I don't actually think that anyone, who is qualified to make such statements, ever stated that a super-volcano eruption was a potential ELE. This is something that has been popularised in the media and other such disinformation services.

Toba was by all accounts a narrow squeak for humanity, but there are one or two more of us now than there were then so survival of the species is more likely. I still wonder what they are preparing us for as I have obviously been on ATS too long!

reply to post by PuterMan


I agree, Dr Kaku is just one of the "out of his field" scaremongers who keep on warning us that "the end is near" every time that Yellowstone snores a little too loudly for them. That is why I worded my intro the way I did.

Originally posted by slidingdoor
There has just been a 4.2 in Iceland and appears to be close to Grimsvotn volcano ......?

www.emsc-csem.org...

edit on 9-5-2013 by slidingdoor because: to add link

That quake was approx. 306km SW of Grimsvotn, so given Iceland is only 525km coast to coast not really "close to Grimsvotn"
You getting your volc's mixed up?
There has been a series of mag 4's ( and smaller ones) there 9-10/05/2013, NW of Reykjaneshryggur sub marine system, with that many mag 4's in such a short time I'd say it is erupting now.

Here is the latest download data I have mapped and graphed for May from the Icelandic Meteorological Office.
Zoom in to the SW corner once you get to the interactive map to see the mag 4's.

[color=8BB381](click image for myIceland Maps and Graphs, opens in new tab/window)

The submarine Reykjaneshryggur volcanic system off the SW tip of Iceland is part of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, which is exposed subaerially in Iceland. Numerous submarine eruptions at Reykjaneshryggur dating back to the 12th century have been observed during historical time, some of which have formed ephemeral islands.
Source: Smithsonian

Thanks for that info Muzzy - think I did a quick search on nearest volcano to Keflavik using the location from EMSC's data , thought it was nearer than that - ooops - but summit must be brewing or brewed by now


Kinda reminds me of all the canary island action when an island eventually popped up

reply to post by slidingdoor


I would not worry about the Reykjanes area. That kind of activity is nothing like El Hiero. It is pretty much all tectonic in that area, with the odd steam induced bump closer to Reykjavik.

Okay, kayaking next to lava flowing into the ocean from a safety point is extremely dangerous & most likely a very stupid thing to do. But these risk takers did get some pics that would be enjoyed by some of us in this thread. Enjoy this link: petapixel.com...
Don't know whether to give them props for having the balls or
the motherly instinct says what the hell were you thinking...

Pavlof Volcano Alaska Raised to Orange Alert



Link: www.avo.alaska.edu...