South China Sea: The Ignored powder keg?

reply to post by jam321


I didnt get that either maybe light can explain in depth what he was getting at for us?

Asia is the fastest growing arms market in the world
with energy and resouce concerns, their is little dobt that
the potential for armed combat breaking out over south china sea is
as likely as that in the middle east. but instead of falling powers being
the main protaginests, it would be those on the rise which makes the dangers
all the higher. the stakes of a nation on the rise are very real as expansion is always
acompainied buy the occasional war.

It is all very well to say the US has all those Carrier Groups to oppose China but I would ask a very serious question here. The way the US economy is going, it will collapse! When it does, those Carrier Groups will sit idle in port because there will be no money to pay for them.

China always takes the long view, always. She is stacking her claim. Think of the situation sans the US Fleet. The whole ball game changes in favor of China. India against China, India would not take the risk, not considering their common border.

Just my opinion.

P

I didn't know China claimed that much sea as theirs. That's hilarious. You could go swimming on the wrong side Malaysia and the Philippines and find yourself an illegal immigrant into china without even leaving the beach

reply to post by pheonix358


That's an interesting view. I was going to post something about the US fleets in the thread but as you can tell or maybe not I left them out.

reply to post by jam321



reply to post by SLAYER69


The UN convention on the Law of the Sea dictates that a countries EEZ (Exclusive economic zone) is 200 nautical miles out from its territory yet China are extending theirs over this point.

Yes, they can do this, and so can Israel continually encroach on Palestinian land despite numerous UN sanctions, but it is unlawful and will eventually be brought to the UN. Sure, for now it's sabre rattling time, flexing some muscle, but eventually it will just go to the UN and sanctions will be put on China for breaking International law. That's my understanding of it.

If they continue to do it, sure, there could be war. China are mighty but are still subject to international relations and most countries will eventually condemn these actions once they are brought before the UN. The US will happily take China to the UN over this regardless of the fact that China has bought much of the US debt, but that means nothing. That's merely an economical side issue that has no real bearing on China's might over the US. The US could just as easily turn around and refuse to pay back any of the debt China has bought. Where will that leave China?

I'm not saying there won't be a fight. I'm saying that unless China physically invade this sea and also the respective owners of these EEZ's then this will be a storm in a tea cup.

Originally posted by LightAssassin
The UN convention on the Law of the Sea dictates that a countries EEZ (Exclusive economic zone) is 200 nautical miles out from its territory yet China are extending theirs over this point.

Right across the front yards of other countries. Those other countries could claim the same amount of space.

So...

Yes, they can do this, and so can Israel

Which is not part of the discussion...........ME Forum That way------->

reply to post by GrandStrategy

I didn't know China claimed that much sea as theirs. That's hilarious. You could go swimming on the wrong side Malaysia and the Philippines and find yourself an illegal immigrant into china without even leaving the beach

Ya ! hah I guess they figure.

We have this much land so.....

We get this much water !

reply to post by SLAYER69


By law they can't extend any more than 200 nautical miles. To do so is unlawful. It will go to the UN. If China don't back down it will be war and sanctions.

Yes, I agree maybe this could be the start of WW3 and not the trouble in the Middle East.

It's a pity you didn't come back with how useless the UN sanctions against Israel have been and how useful they really could be against China.

Maybe China is willing to do it. Maybe they're willing to invade Vietnam and the Philippines. They'll need to in order to claim this area but nevertheless things won't ever be the same again, hence why I agree it is a powder keg and why I agree that China will not back down without a fight, but I do think they'll eventually back down.

reply to post by LightAssassin


If China wants to be seen a true Global power they'll need to learn how to compromise.

Up till now they haven't really had to deal with the outside world so close to their borders in modern times which disagrees with their actions. These countries each in their own right can and will defend themselves and their interests and are not impressed with China's new found wealth nor it's extremely Nationalistic attitude. [One which puts the US's to shame]

Vietnam and China have come to blows in the past so have India and China. Japan is representing itself as well.

reply to post by SLAYER69


And your point?

Either China will compromise and respect the International law or they will go the route of Germany/Israel and illegally expand their borders. Lets hope it's met with the force that Germany were met with rather than the piss weak efforts being made to stop Israel.

It's not a free-for-all. It's China vs the rest of Asia, and then the World.

Somehow I think China are smarter than that.

reply to post by SLAYER69


Its a Powder keg, that's for sure.

That nationalist ill-will is not just confined to those in the corridors of power. In a survey published last week, the Pew Global Attitudes Project found that 62% of Chinese hold an “unfavorable” view of India

The Sino-Indian War: 50 Years Later, Will India and China Clash Again?

I agree, calling the South China Sea a powder keg is accurate. The one poster who mentioned an acquaintance who said there is a likely timeline for China to invade Japan is off-putting to say the least. I can't see what China would gain here. It's not likely that it would just be a China-Japan war, it would involve other countries as well. I can see Vietnam, Philippines, and others joining in with Japan against China. And I could see the USA playing a big role as well.

I find it odd that China is pushing so hard with these territorial claims, it's as if they really don't expect to be called out on it.

As a side note, it was shown that the exclusive economic zone extends from a countries land border out to sea to about 200 miles(?) but yet the US drone that was allegedly shot down by Iran was only about 15 miles from Iran's coast. I presume there is a large overlap between exclusive economic zone and what is called International Waters.

Originally posted by LightAssassin


Somehow I think China are smarter than that.

I don't.

They have taken advantage of situations in the Past. With the Cuban Missile Crisis engulfing the World, they attacked India and took Aksai Chin.


Calculated, yes. Smart, No. Old wounds don't heal, in that neck of the woods.

Originally posted by LightAssassin
reply to post by SLAYER69

 

And your point?

Either China will compromise and respect the International law or they will go the route of Germany/Israel and illegally expand their borders. Lets hope it's met with the force that Germany were met with rather than the piss weak efforts being made to stop Israel.

It's not a free-for-all. It's China vs the rest of Asia, and then the World.

Somehow I think China are smarter than that.

imo the above is a censored weak attempt at derailing a thread about the imperial aspirations of China.

The only countries that is the topic here is China, and those effected by Chinas expansion.

reply to post by neo96


Thanks for that useless piece of drivel Neo.

I'm keeping on topic but suggesting that I hope their plans are met with force rather than weak and useless UN sanctions which, in Israels case, clearly have no effect.

If this is the route the World takes, via UN economic sanctions, in dealing with China then China will take that sea and land and there will be war. If the World react with force China will back down. China really don't have that many allies that I'm aware of.

I've said previously, I agree it is a powder keg, yes, I agree. I'm not denying that. I'm saying that this, though, is a big action to take. It involves many countries and their respective allies. It involves International shipping lanes.

Unless China physically invade all those countries they will not get what they want.

reply to post by LightAssassin


My point being is that many who have watched this situation develop are not surprised by China's actions. Give them some money and the first thing out of the gate they try to do is bully their neighbors. But this time these neighbors are not poor little popper states.

They are growing economic powers in their own right. The little dragons can and will stand up to China. Throw their US Allie into the mix and they become a much more formidable force.

Originally posted by LightAssassin
reply to post by SLAYER69

 

By law they can't extend any more than 200 nautical miles. To do so is unlawful. It will go to the UN. If China don't back down it will be war and sanctions.

Yes, I agree maybe this could be the start of WW3 and not the trouble in the Middle East.

It's a pity you didn't come back with how useless the UN sanctions against Israel have been and how useful they really could be against China.

Maybe China is willing to do it. Maybe they're willing to invade Vietnam and the Philippines. They'll need to in order to claim this area but nevertheless things won't ever be the same again, hence why I agree it is a powder keg and why I agree that China will not back down without a fight, but I do think they'll eventually back down.

What you and many others are missing is that China claims sovereignty over most of the islands in the area and thus claims the seas around them as an economic zone.

The claims to those islands is of course disputed but that does not stop China from making the claim. Even if the island is a few square meters of dirt or rock, owning it gives you the right to the economic zone. The map used by the OP does not show all of the tiny islands and thus it is hard to understand the claims that China makes.

The area is named 'The South China Sea' for a good reason, that reason being steeped in history. Note carefully that it is not called the Philippine sea or the Indian sea or the Sea of Vietnam. Chinese claims have validity as do some of the other nations but many are spurious and based on rhetoric. On the other hand so are some of the Chinese claims.

P

reply to post by SLAYER69


So what do you propose will be the outcome other than reiterating what I have already stated?

reply to post by pheonix358


Thankyou Pheonix. That certainly explains a little more about the situation and China's standpoint.

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So who has a real legitimate claim to the land? Any? None? Maybe China are within their rights to be doing this.

reply to post by SLAYER69


guys, this is unrealistic. China can't seriously be considering taking on all those countries with the US in the wings.

This is a ploy; probably some distraction. I wouldn't be surprised if the US & China were in bed together on this

At any rate, something's up