Astrophysicist Predicts X-Flare Similar to Carrington Event on 12/18/12 that will hit Earth 12/21/12

reply to post by flexy123


Read the data before responding. You make no sense otherwise.

reply to post by Phage


Okey, glad we could agree on that so we can put it behind us.

I'm just a layman and understood only half of what that guy said but he doesn't appear to me to be a doomsday fanatic or some nutjob with a Youtube video. If he is he's an intelligent nutjob. I don't buy into World destruction on Dec. 21st but I do find it interesting that this could occur anywhere close to the date. That's quite a coincidence but I suppose it's possible. I predict an earthquake on Dec. 21st and there will be one somewhere so maybe this is the same type of thing. But the end of the World doesn't need to come from anything apocalyptic. What if we were to have our electrical grids damaged severely and satellites and all the things that keep us alive and kicking. People in cold climates freezing to death, access to our money? If you can't get to your money or to a store to get something due to no electricity then what? Take from people that do have it for survival leading to civil unrest? Does that make me a nutjob to even think this way?

Well at least "thebarcaroller" states that he thinks the whole end of the world event is "ridiculous" approximately 4:40 in his video. he is just stating a theory of likelihood that an x-class flare and/or earthquakes are likely to happen. We don't have long to wait at least to put his (and others) theories to rest.

reply to post by curiouswa

Not a "Harvard Study", it's from India. But...

Our investigation preliminarily shows that each earthquake under study was preceded by a solar flare of GOES importance B to X class by 10-100 hrs. However, each flare was not found followed by earthquake of magnitude ¡Ý4.0

A correlation is found when an earthquake sometimes follows a flare within a range of 10-100 hours? Shower syndrome.

Our detailed study of 50 earthquakes associated with solar flares observed by SOXS mission and other wavebands revealed many interesting results such as the location of the flare on the Sun and the delay time in the earthquake and its magnitude.

They then hand pick 50 of those "correlations" to study in detail?

Sorry. Not a lot to go on.


That second article is interesting but it is not talking about a causal relationship between solar activity and earthquakes. It is talking about the fact that statistically both seem to follow the same sort of semirandom patterns and therefore may be caused by the same underlying phenomenon, a build up then release of pressure. In the case of solar activity it would be the release of magnetic forces. In the case of earthquakes, tectonic forces.

Here we present evidence that the same empirical laws widely accepted in seismology characterize, surprisingly, also the size and time occurrence of solar flares. In particular
the same temporal clustering holds both for earthquake, where it is known as the Omori law, and solar flare catalogues: a mainflare triggers a sequence of afterflares.

It is about using this as a possible way of predicting solar activity.

This could greatly improve the prediction of violent space weather and the understanding of the physical processes behind solar events.

arxiv.org...

reply to post by Batfink420


That's exactly the point made here. Our power grid system is vulnerable to a few events that will disable it for an unknown period of time.

No one can predict solar flares. No one ever has been able to predict a solar flare. Solar flares are natural events that happen at random. We do get more flares during the solar cycle maximum which is coming in 2013, but you can't predict when they will occur. It doesn't matter what your credentials are.

Yes and in June 15, 2013 soforth Why Dates? So we get hit by a solar flare, can you stand up and stop it? Has the Earth been hit before? Many times!!!
Sad part is we have broken the rules of Mother Nature and if a good one hits it will cause more damage then just your Elect power! Elect Power is just an convence and nothing more! Will you die if theres no Power? Nope, just no more TV and the like!
Now as for more damage, take all the oil we have used up on this Earth, what does oil do, COOLS! So now this planet heats up inside and begains to melt inside out! Is it possible we created our own pole shift?

Can we get the 2minute news guy to weigh in on this,,,if he says yes, I am packing a BOB

Ey This is so AWESOME! Ladies and gentlemen,, get ready for a '___' experience? I dono bro. I hate getting disappointed.

ETA: Lol...I just realized that today is the 1st wow we got 3 weeks.. feel so weird.

reply to post by curiouswa


I am assuming if there is no spots earth facing the flare would not be earth directed and I believe there is no way to predict where the solar spots will be.

reply to post by curiouswa


That's all good but I am pretty sure there is no way to predict solar flares. You can chart activity and possibly predict times of more or less activity but to say you can predict a flare is stretching it.

And even if the sun gave off an extremely strong flare it still has to be "aimed" at the earth and hit it. There are many, many flares that go off into space.

Unfortunately, there are natural phenomena that occur all the time, but we have yet to devise a way to measure them, if we even know about them. From a scientific standpoint at least. Science is great in its methodology, because of what it has done for us, but it is rather flawed when it comes to other aspects of our natural world.

I think there is enough evidence to suggest that planetary alignments can have affects on other planetary bodies. We know for a fact that earthquake activity increases during certain alignments, and I would not doubt that a solar flare could be released due to the changing gravity and orientation of the elements reacting inside the sun. That is not to say it is fact, but it is at least possible. However, there is not really any point attempting to scare everyone with talk of doom, as what will happen will happen. Some people will choose to prepare for a certain type of event, others for just about any type of disaster, and then some will not prepare at all. Who is correct?

If nothing happens, it is the person who prepped who looks foolish, as they have wasted much time and money for basically no reason. Some may disagree however. But on the other hand, if something does happen, the preppers are still going to look stupid because everyone is going to come after them...lol, just kidding. I think it is fine to prepare for any type of disaster, but as far as a solar flare, there are way worse things that could happen. Civilization has endured for how long now without technology?

reply to post by watchitburn


We can barely predict the "11 year cycle"

This was from science.nasa.gov in 2006...
"I expect to see the first sunspots of the next cycle appear in late 2006 or 2007—and Solar Max to be underway by 2010 or 2011." "...a storm is coming"

Turns our things aren't what they were expecting as we head in to 2013 with no sign of any real solar maximum

Originally posted by cavalryscout
This sounds bad. Better check on your end of the world supplies! All I have is beer and potato chips and a couple girlie mags but that's all I need.

Cigarettes, check.
Bourbon, check.
Enough food to last me and four adolescent Cambodian boys, check.

...Maybe uhh, just ignore that last part. I was thinking out loud

I think were all getting a little Jaded on all the Doom predictions, I mean we have all been drowned in them. Enough is enough. And when new years comes, what new dire end of the world prediction will we find? We're running out of famous and infamous authors.... Oh I suppose we can do earthquakes and volcano's maybe throw in a Tsunami. Oh wait, a sinkhole causes earth to turn into a black hole ....and.... ... ..

Hmmm.
I believe if a flare was the strength of the "Carrington" event
It would not take two days.. more like less than 24 hours

Phage?

Originally posted by Lil Drummerboy
Hmmm.
I believe if a flare was the strength of the "Carrington" event
It would not take two days.. more like less than 24 hours

Phage?

edit on 1-12-2012 by Lil Drummerboy because: (no reason given)

From August 28, 1859, until September 2, numerous sunspots and solar flares were observed on the sun. Just before noon on September 1, the British astronomer Richard Carrington observed the largest flare,[3] which caused a major coronal mass ejection (CME) to travel directly toward Earth, taking 17 hours. Such a journey normally takes three to four days. This second CME moved so quickly because the first one had cleared the way of the ambient solar wind plasma.[3]

en.wikipedia.org...

For the life of me I can't figure out why so many people think radiation jetted from the Sun, or other stars, is going to magically make you a more spiritual person. Awaken your Chakras and your third eye? O.o Might I suggest meditation instead.

It could happen, the dating seems convenient. If I were TPTB I would false-flag a big CME and just turn that power off. I hope it does go off. I'm so sick of people with smartphones.. worth it.