Sunspot Region AR1620 Doubles in Size - Behemoth is Almost 10 Times as Wide as Earth

At first we were warned that the 2012/2013 solar max would be a near record breaker. Then they backed down and said it would be no biggie. Now it is starting to look like they were right the first time.

SOURCE

BIG SUNSPOT KEEPS GROWING: Sunspot AR1620 doubled in size again yesterday. It is now a behemoth almost 10 times as wide as Earth. A movie from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory shows the sunspot materializing over the past 48 hours. So far the sunspot has been relatively quiet, producing no strong flares. However, the sunspot's magnetic field is rapidly changing as the sunspot grows, and rapidly-changing magnetic fields have a tendency to reconnect and erupt. NOAA forecasters estimate a 35% chance of M-class eruptions in the next 24 hours.

Pictures and video at the source link...

Now it is starting to look like they were right the first time.

Not sure what you mean. The very early predictions were for a high sunspot number at solar maximum. Current predictions are for a low sunspot number. The predictions have/had nothing to do with the size of any sunspots or the intensity of solar activity.

While 1620 is large, it is not really unusually large. Certainly no record breaker.

reply to post by happykat39


This is somewhat old news as it happened almost 48 hours ago. Not only that but the sunspot is almost rotated to the opposite side of the solar disk and gone from view.

reply to post by happykat39


This sunspot only has hours left until it is entirly not earth facing, so although rapidly growing I'd say we here on earth won't even get a wicked light show even if it were to burp a CME at this point, maybe at best a glancing blow to the magnetosphere that has already been taking a bit of an uptick as of late.

But although big I'd say this one is also another none event.

SDO 48 hour HMI Magnetogram

Bottom right corner of video shows it working across the disk, and about to turn the corner for Stereo B to keep an eye on

SaneThinking

indeed, it may explode when the sunspot was already back to earth face..but nice find OP

I just saw a new post on it at another site and thought it was current. But you are right and it is fading into the sunset. Even though, it is one huge sucker and did have some serious potential for causing trouble.

Originally posted by cheesy
indeed, it may explode when the sunspot was already back to earth face..but nice find OP

As big and active as it is you may just be right and instead of "old news" this post would become ahead of it's time. The rotational period in relation to the earth is about two weeks and that big sucker just might last that long and still pose a problem.

reply to post by happykat39


Suns rotational period is just over 25 days at the equater and just over 33 days at the poles, and if that one made it back around it would be a miracle but hey stranger things have happend. If you check the link or google search recent large sunspots you'll see that although big we have had some that dwarf this one in the past few months. So large yes but par for the course so to say with the way things have been. Space weather dot com I find sensationalizies things pretty good.

SaneThinking

I keep tabs with this guy on youtube www.youtube.com...
He let's us know daily about what the sun has been upto every 24 hours, also how the sun is affecting the earth i.e earthquakes and volcanic activity. He's worth subscribing to for factual knowledge regarding the sun and its solar flares/cme's.

reply to post by Mrskyblueworld

Except that the Sun doesn't really affect earthquakes or volcanoes.

reply to post by Mrskyblueworld


This guy as well Tellicurrent does a wicked job for all the sun watchers out there works sort of with SuspiciousObserver it would seem good group of guys I must agree. Part of my coffee routine in the morning before work.

SaneThinking

reply to post by Phage


That as we have seen from many of your posts Phage is your opinion, and the world will go on with or without it.

There are many theories proven and some unproven that hold water, if you have an open mind, but I guess since you are the final say on the topic we should just take it for what it is????

I prefer to dig for myself, and as far as I am concerned it is a topic up in the air with many in the scientific community, not sure what side of the fence to actively pursue. So until concrete, proven otherwise I am willing to look at the plausibility of all theories especially ones that deal with what our sun dishes out and what effect it may or may not have on us.

SaneThinking

reply to post by SaneThinking

It's a good idea to examine straight forward empirical evidence as well.
www.abovetopsecret.com...

reply to post by Phage

I disagree!
It's quite simple - shock waves. A solar flare eruption is like a huge earthquake on the sun. When you consider that the sun's mass is 1.1 million times larger than Earth's mass, one solar flare alone has the capacity to dose Earth in shock waves a minimum 10 to 1000 times in coverage. Shock waves are defined as a propagating disturbance and similar to an ordinary wave, a shock waves carries energy that can propagate through a medium (solid, liquid, gas or plasma...ie everything Earth consists of!) or in some cases in the absence of a material medium through a field such as the electromagnetic field (hence, why we see auroras). Shock waves are characterized by an abrupt nearly discontinuous change in the characteristics of the medium (ie earthquakes and the creation of storm cells). Across a shock there is always an extremely rapid rise in pressure, temperature and density of the flow (eg evidenced by volcanoes on Earth...and nore and more are erupting as we experience more and more solar flare activity as the sun heads towards the solar maximum). In supersonic flows, expansion is achieved through an expansion fan (ie the typical "angel" formation plasma cloud from a solar flare). A shock wave travels through most media at a higher speed than an ordinary wave (shaking poor little Earth as the plasma clouds carry on to the outer planets in our solar system and further into space). Unlike solitons (another kind of nonlinear wave), the energy of a shock wave dissipates relatively quickly with distance (which is why poor little Earth gets struck so often - it is close to the sun). Also, the accompanying expansion wave approaches and eventually merges with the shock wave, partially cancelling it out. When a shock wave passes through matter, the total energy is preserved but the energy which can be extracted as work decreases and entropy increases (ie in other words, the further out the shock wave goes, the less likely it is for the plasma to seed storm cells and for the shock wave itself to create earthquakes and other seismic activity). Earth, being one of the closest planets to the sun in our solar system, is in the direct firing line of shock waves shaking our little planet around like a bean in a paper cup in a gale force wind. Some peoples observations clearly show that any M-class solar flare (CME) is likely to cause an earthquake on Earth that registers a 6 plus magnitude earthquake. Any areas of seismic fragility (ie any current cracks on little Earth) are, with solar flare shock waves striking Earth, susceptible to cracking wide open. . During the solar maximum, there will be more earthquakes and volcano eruptions on Earth as a direct result of more solar flares on the sun

reply to post by Mrskyblueworld

During the solar maximum, there will be more earthquakes and volcano eruptions on Earth as a direct result of more solar flares on the sun

One would think so, if there were much of an effect. However evidence does not indicate such.
www.abovetopsecret.com...

reply to post by SaneThinking


Thank you, I have subscribed and was planning on going to bed but these types of videos interest me too much to sleep

reply to post by Phage


I see your point, nice thread by the way, i'll look forward to reading it, thanks

If ya thought 1620 was a doozy check out what just crested the limb in 1623 which has the chance of being labeled as two serperate spots as it forms more in the coming days she's a big one and going to be directly earth facing soon you can use the same SDO links from above.

SaneThinking

Things are just amazing to watch when you start clicking on all the filters, pretty awesome what our sun does...