2012: Romney Has "Edge" In Ohio

Originally posted by Tw0Sides

Originally posted by sonnny1
No amount of kool-aid, will get the voters to drink. Especially undecided, or Independent. MHO.

You GOP peeps never mention the "Ron Paul" Factor.....

How many of those Registered Voters will Write in RP, or worse, after the Debacle at the GOP Convention, switch sides.

We don't mention Ron Paul because he is just an afterthought.

If anything Ron Paul takes away from Obama.

When I think Ron Paul, I think anti-war, and pro-drug...which is basically your average Democrat.

Romney Cancels "The View" wife will appear only !

"Romney scheduled the appearance last month, after he was heard on that now infamous “47%” secret video from September saying that he believed going on “The View” was “high risk” because “of the five women on it, only one is conservative, and four are sharp-tongued and not conservative.”

xfinity.comcast.net...

reply to post by searching411


If I had known you were in my neighborhood, I'd've asked you in for a beer. I had neighbors actually laugh at me for working.
"You got a college degree and you work all day, I sit here on my porch all day and drink beer. Who's the smart one?"
uh.. The one who six weeks weeks later, still owns their home?
I don't know why the people you attempted to help refused aid due to not wanting to leave their home. All the porch beer drinkers lost their homes a while back.
I've never seen a more accurate picture of Ohio as your post. The state handshake is to approach someone palm up, asking for something.

I think after this debacle the tide is going to change:

Candy Crowley takes on Romney: Did Obama call Libya attack act of "terror"? - the video title:
www.cbsnews.com...

Republicans point to early vote gains in Ohio Posted by CNN Political Reporter Peter Hamby

Four years ago, Democrats made up about 42% of the early and absentee vote while Republicans made up 22% - a dismal 20-point deficit that contributed to Sen. John McCain's defeat in Ohio.

Through Wednesday, however, the margin has narrowed: Democrats account for 36% of the early and absentee vote while Republicans make up for 29%.

Ohio Is Closer than You Think By Josh Jordan

Romney is up big with independents: In 2008 Obama beat John McCain by 8 percent among independents in Ohio. Of the seven current RCP polls that give independent numbers, Romney is up by an average of 8.7 percent:

That’s a 16 percent swing in independents toward Romney from 2008′s numbers. If you assume equal turnout in 2012 as 2008 (using my number from above) but take Obama’s 8 percent edge with independents and give it Romney, that 4.6 percent 2008 margin becomes a tie. At that point, Romney would win if he chips away at the five-percent turnout advantage from 2008.

The current poll samples have Democratic turnout matching or exceeding 2008 levels: Of the seven current RCP polls in Ohio, the average Democratic advantage in party ID is 5.5 percent. That is, if we assume 2008 advantage was D+5, as explained above, then the average poll in Ohio right now assumes a 2008-level turnout. While anything is possible on November 6, there are not many people on either side thinking Obama can match his 2008 turnout advantage.

Early voting is not as positive for Obama as it was in 2008: This is the last point, but a huge one. Take this quotation, from CNN today: “Four years ago, Democrats made up about 42 percent of the early and absentee vote while Republicans made up 22 percent. Through Wednesday, however, the margin has narrowed: Democrats account for 36 percent of the early and absentee vote while Republicans make up for 29 percent.” The current polls have been seriously inflated for Democrats because they’re reporting Obama with 30+ percent leads in early voting (which is then automatically counted in “likely voter” samples), which seems to be vastly overestimating the Democratic advantage among these voters. As CNN explains, Romney is making huge gains from 2008.

Looks like the president is having a tough time selling himself to Ohioans.

Latest Ohio Polls Show Dead Heat:

Latest Ohio Polls Show Dead Heat

reply to post by alternateuniverse

012: Romney Has "Edge" In Ohio

That's because his family has stake in the voting machines, especially Tagg Romney.

I'm in Ohio, ALL I SEE ARE OBAMA signs....with a couple Ron Paul signs.

Anyone remember Ohio in 2004?

Want to bet that the Feds will do jack squat should Romney steal it?

Obama's "firewall" is becoming smaller and smaller. Romney doesn't need Ohio to get to 270. Obama does. Ohio is in the bag for Romney...YES, you heard it here first.

Originally posted by alternateuniverse
Obama's "firewall" is becoming smaller and smaller. Romney doesn't need Ohio to get to 270. Obama does. Ohio is in the bag for Romney...YES, you heard it here first.

This is exactly the opposite.

Romney is the one that absolutely needs Ohio, Obama doesn't.

Obama can take:
WI, MI, IA, NV, PA and VA = 272
WI, MI, FL, PA = 276
WI, MI, IA, NH, VA, NV, VA = 285

Romney doesn't have those paths because Obama pretty much has WI, MI, NH and PA locked down despite what polls are saying in NH.

So Romney's only path is:
FL, VA, IA, CO, NV, and OHIO = 287

Iowa and Nevada is going to be very very hard for Romney to get as well.

Romney needs Ohio to become POTUS.

If we're going to discuss Ohio polls, let us look at current numbers.
www.politico.com...

Seems the Romney surge has all but ended and that Ohio is still within our preisent's grasp

reply to post by spinalremain


Looks like Obama needs Ohio badly.

REPORT: Vanloads of Somalians driven to the polls in Ohio...

Is voter fraud being committed in Ohio? By: Sara Marie Brenner 10/26/2012 09:25 PM

Two volunteer poll workers at an Ohio voting station told Human Events that they observed van loads of Ohio residents born in Somalia — the state is home to the second-largest Somali population in the United States — being driven to the voting station and guided by Democratic interpreters on the voting process. No Republican interpreters were present, according to these volunteers.

A source, who wishes to remain anonymous, is a volunteer outside the Morse Road polling center. She has witnessed Somalis who cannot speak English come to the polling center. They are brought in groups, by van or bus. The Democrats hand them a slate card and say, “vote Brown all the way down.” Given that Sherrod Brown is the incumbent Democrat Senator in Ohio, one can assume that this is the reference.

The logical follow-up question is whether a non-English speaking person is an American citizen. Although Republican leadership in Ohio passed a voting reform law, it was repealed by the legislature itself after the Democrats threatened a referendum. According to the Ohio Secretary of State’s web site, someone wanting to vote early in Ohio must supply one of the following in writing on the absentee ballot form, whether voting early by mail or in person: an Ohio driver’s license number; the last four digits of the social security number; or a copy of a current and valid photo identification, military identification, or a current — within the last 12 months — utility bill, including cell phone bill, bank statement, government check, paycheck, or other government document that shows the person’s name and address in addition to the voter registration acknowledgement.

Obama's Behind in Ohio, Here's Why:

Obama's fuzzy Ohio early vote math By ADRIAN GRAY | 10/26/12 3:18 PM EDT

At this point in an election cycle, many campaign staffers are busy fighting the press on what they call “process stories.” The candidates and their staffs want to talk about their plans and policies while reporters covering them find their audiences demand a play-by-play of the horse race.

There are normally three signs you know a campaign metrics memo is purely spin.

1. Anecdotes: “We have seen groups as big as 100 voters going to vote in Athens, Ohio.” Only 604 democrats have voted in person in the entire county and no more than 40 in a single precinct (that would be Athens 3-5, for those scoring at home).

2. Unverifiable Data: “Precincts that Obama won in 2008 are voting early at a higher rate”: This is unverifiable and misleading because there is no such thing as an “Obama precinct.” Every ten years, the entire country rebalances its voting districts based on a constitutionally mandated census. In 2010, this process redrew the lines of reportable voting areas that were used in 2008. So this year, we have entirely new precincts, thereby making it impossible to validate their claim.

3. Cherry-picking random sub-poll data: “Time poll shows the President up 60-30” among early voters. That sub-sample was asked of 145 people and was one of many of similar ilk (with a huge variation in results). Their central data argument is that 43 more people told Time’s pollster over a two-day window they supported Obama. If that is their best claim to a lead in Ohio, it is a troubling picture for the president.

Bottom Line:
220,000 fewer Democrats have voted early in Ohio compared to 2008. At the same time 30,000 more Republicans have cast their ballots. Obama won by 260,000 in 2008. Momentum isn't on Obama's side.

Rescuing the auto companies produced 400 of the 112,000 new jobs in Ohio. That's right 400 jobs out of 112,000. Less than 1% (0.357%) of total new jobs created in Ohio were from the bailouts.

Kasich, a Republican and supporter of Mitt Romney, said that the rescue of auto companies accounted for just 400 of the 112,000 new jobs that have come to Ohio since early last year.

“We did not grow Ohio’s economy just by relying on one industry, or just one sector,” Kasich said on NBC’s “Meet the Press.” “We’ve done it by diversifying Ohio, and make it safe for people to come in here.”

Ohio’s unemployment rate is now down to 7 percent, from 8.6 percent a year ago. Kasich said that the state’s recovery had been fueled by other sectors, like information and technology, financial services and healthcare.

Gov. Kasich downplays role of auto bailout in Ohio’s recovery
By Bernie Becker - 10/28/12 10:58 AM ET

It would be absolutely stunning if the commies and takers in Ohio voted for Romney.

Ohio: Romney 50%, Obama 48% (Rasmussen)

Among all Ohio voters, Romney now has a 12-point lead over the president in voter trust – 53% to 41% - when it comes to the economy. Last week, he had just a seven-point advantage among voters in the state when they were asked which candidate they trusted more to deal with the economy.

Romney’s also trusted more by eight points in the areas of job creation and energy policy but leads Obama by just two when it comes to housing issues.

National security has been an area where the president has typically had an advantage over Romney this year. But, the Republican challenger now has a 52% to 42% advantage on the issue.

Obama carried Ohio by a 51% to 47% margin in 2008, but just 46% of the state’s voters now approve of the job he is doing. Fifty-one percent (51%) disapprove. This includes Strong Approval from 29% and Strong Disapproval from 44%, giving the president a slightly worse job approval rating in Ohio than he earns nationally.

Forty-seven percent (47%) have a favorable opinion of the president and 52% have an unfavorable view. Those figures include 32% with a Very Favorable opinion and 42% who have a Very Unfavorable view of him.

Romney is viewed favorably by 53% and unfavorably by 45%, including 40% with a Very Favorable opinion of the former Massachusetts governor and 32% with a Very Unfavorable one.

Election 2012: Ohio President Ohio: Romney 50%, Obama 48%

reply to post by alternateuniverse


Nice Cherry Pick.

The reason you are so concerned about Ohio is that you know Romney loses without it, and it isn't looking good at all for Romney.

So you pick one out of the 10 most recent polls that shows Romney winning. Unfortunately, he is losing in 7 of those 10 polls.

Obama will most likely carry Ohio by a very very slim margin.

reply to post by Taiyed


I'm not concerned.