Washington Whispers Never-Wrong Pundit Picks Obama to Win in 2012

Originally posted by queenannie38
Source

Allan Lichtman, the American University professor whose election formula has correctly called every president since Ronald Reagan’s 1984 re-election, has a belated birthday present for Barack Obama: Rest easy, your re-election is in the bag.

“Even if I am being conservative, I don’t see how Obama can lose,” says Lichtman, the brains behind The Keys to the White House.

Lichtman’s prediction helps to explain a quirk in some polling that finds that while Americans disapprove of the president, they still think he will win re-election.

Working for the president are several of Lichtman’s keys, tops among them incumbency and the scandal-free nature of his administration.Undermining his re-election is a lack of charisma and leadership on key issues, says Lichtman, even including healthcare, Obama’s crowning achievement.

Lichtman developed his 13 Keys in 1981. They test the performance of the party that holds the presidency. If six or more of the 13 keys go against the party in power, then the opposing party wins.“The keys have figured into popular politics a bit,” Lichtman says. “They’ve never missed. They’ve been right seven elections in a row. A number that goes way beyond statistical significance in a record no other system even comes close to.”

Very interesting. Not a poll but just one man's system that has not yet failed but has so far a 100% accuracy rate!

Here are the 13 keys...for descriptions of each, please see the source link:

1. Party mandate
   
2. Contest
   
3. Incumbency
   
4. Third Party
   
5. Short term economy
   
6. Long-term economy
   
7. Policy change
   
8. Social unrest
   
9. Scandal
   
10. Foreign/military failure
    
11. Foreign/military success
    
12. Incumbent charisma
    
13. Challenger charisma

The ones in bold are the ones that Lichtman gives Obama a win on...the others are either undecided or a loss.

edit on 10/10/2012 by queenannie38 because: (no reason given)

Lot of people say Bush lost his re-election. I would say the post has not been very turbulent with high turnover rates, which makes testing his theory difficult. Only President who did not win re-election was Bush Sr.

I guess we shall see!

Originally posted by macman
reply to post by karen61057

 

Ah....Never mind.
I don't have an hour free to type all the issue and scandals that are circling around his highness.

Hey that sounds like your sides battle cry. Theres just so much that we dont have time to spell it out for you. Perhaps when you do have time then......

Originally posted by beezzer

Originally posted by karen61057
reply to post by beezzer

 

Beezy old friend. that sounds more like a wish than a conviction.

Edited to add, all hail the bunny. I still remember my friend.

edit on 10-10-2012 by karen61057 because: (no reason given)

In other threads I was quite exhaustive in my reasoning for Romney winning.

Bottom line, the polls are skewed, biased and people aren't telling the truth. There is almost a desparation in the re-election of Obama.

I see the same look on Obama-supporters faces that I see on people who buy lottery tickets.

Thanks ma'am.

I read this twice and I still am not sure if there is agreement or angst here.

reply to post by Awen24


You know a scandal we dont?

The closest thing to a scandal in this administration, that I can recall, is that mess with the Secret Service guys and the prostitute at the hotel, etc.

What else can anyone come up with?

Hows about Fast & Furious? Oh wait that's right the media has been keeping the lid on that one and so has Obama by using executive privelage.

reply to post by hangedman13


Define scandal.

That is not a 'scandal.'