BREAKING NEWS: NASA/NOAA Sends Geomagnetic Storm "WARNING"

S&F

Just heard of a tornado watch in TN. I believe TN had a small EQ today as well.

3 or 4 EQ's in Texas the last 2 two days and 1 in NM.

Very odd indeed.

I always get skeptical when the source says: "Breaking News, World News, and Prophecy and Predictions" in their banner. All those words don't really belong together.

Guess I'll take off my tinfoil hat now.

It spiked the K index to 7. Doesn't often get over 3.

www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0273117707011519
dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2007.12.004

Advances in Space Research, Volume 42, Issue 9, 3 November 2008, Pages 1601–1613

Solar, geomagnetic and cosmic ray intensity changes, preceding the cyclone appearances around Mexico

J. Pérez-Peraza a,
S. Kavlakov b,
V. Velasco a,
A. Gallegos-Cruz c,
E. Azpra-Romero d,
O. Delgado-Delgado d,
F. Villicaña-Cruz d

a Instituto de Geofísica, Universidad Nacional Autnoma de Mexico, C.U., Coyoacán, 04510 México, D.F., Mexico
b Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Galileo Galilei Str. 17/B, 1113, Sofia, Bulgaria
c UPIICSA, I.P.N., Depto. de Ciencias Básicas, Té 950, Iztacalco, 08400 México, D.F., Mexico
d Centro de la Atmósfera, Universidad Nacional Autnoma de Mexico, C.U., Coyoacán, 04510 México, D.F., Mexico

Abstract

Recently it has been suggested that there exist specific changes in the cosmic ray intensity and some solar and geomagnetic parameters during the days, preceding the hurricane appearances over the North Atlantic Ocean. To understand better these phenomena, data for all hurricanes born not only over the Atlantic but also over the Pacific waters in the last 55 years that hit the Mexican borders were elaborated. As basic hurricane parameters the maximum rotational velocity and the estimated total energy were used. To avoid any interference all hurricanes, overlapping the preceding ones with more than 20 days were not included. Then the behavior of the cosmic ray (CR) intensity, the sunspot (SS) numbers, and the geomagnetic parameters (AP) and (KP) in 35 days prior and 20 days after the cyclone start were investigated. The CR, SS, AP and KP showed much more intensive disturbances in the periods preceding and following the hurricane appearance. For SS this disturbance gradually increase with the hurricane strength. A characteristic peak in the CR intensity appears before the hurricane start. But its place varies between 5 and 20 days before that start. Specific changes were observed in the SS. For major hurricanes they begins sometimes more than 20 days in advance. The AP and the KP show series of bursts, spread over the whole period of 30 preceding days. The obtained results from the performed correlational analysis are enough interesting to motivate a further statistical analysis with more precise techniques: in particular a common periodicity of 30 years found in the number of tropical storms landing into Mexico, the averaged rotational wind velocity and the ACE must be studied in connection with the solar Hale cycle. Using coherence wavelet spectral analysis we present a comparative study between one terrestrial and one cosmophysical phenomena that presumable influence hurricanes development: African dust outbreaks versus cosmic rays for all North Atlantic tropical cyclones. It is shown that the cosmophysical influence cannot be considered as a negligible effect.

Keywords

Hurricanes;
Solar activity;
Cosmic rays;
Geomagnetic activity

www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364682609002429
dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2009.09.012

Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Volume 71, Issues 17–18, December 2009, Pages 2047–2054

A 22 yr hurricane cycle and its relation with geomagnetic activity

Blanca Mendoza a,
Marni Pazos b

a Instituto de Geofisica, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad Universitaria, México D.F., C.P. 04510, México
b Posgrado en Ciencias de la Tierra, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, México, D.F., C.P. 04510, México

Abstract

Applying spectral analysis to the Atlantic and Pacific hurricane time series, we found periodicities that coincide with the main sunspot and magnetic solar cycles. To assess the possibility that these periodicities could be associated with solar activity, we obtain correlations between hurricane occurrence and several solar activity-related phenomena, such as the total solar irradiance, the cosmic ray flux and the Dst index of geomagnetic activity. Our results indicate that the highest significant correlations are found between the Atlantic and Pacific hurricanes and the Dst index. Most importantly, both oceans present the highest hurricane–Dst correlations during the ascending part of odd solar cycles and the descending phase of even solar cycles. This shows not only the existence of a 22 yr cycle but also the nature of such periodicity. Furthermore, we found that the Atlantic hurricanes behave differently from the Pacific hurricanes in relation to the solar activity-related disturbances considered.

Keywords

Hurricanes;
Geomagnetic activity;
22 yr cycle;
Solar–terrestrial relations

reply to post by wujotvowujotvowujotvo

So the first study talks about a 30 year cycle and the second one talks about a 22 year cycle.

But its place varies between 5 and 20 days before that start. Specific changes were observed in the SS. For major hurricanes they begins sometimes more than 20 days in advance.

Five to twenty days or more, and they see a causal relationship? Interesting.
www.sciencedirect.com...

Furthermore, we found that the Atlantic hurricanes behave differently from the Pacific hurricanes in relation to the solar activity-related disturbances considered.

Perhaps because there isn't really any causal relationship.
www.sciencedirect.com...

We are all here to discuss it,no?

I had thought at one time those cme's could cause eq's till I compared the earthquakes with strong cme's.
There was no correlation.

Don't have those gif's since ATS changed the media format and was lost.

Learned how to save all that stuff now.

www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2011/2011GL048851.shtml
dx.doi.org/10.1029/2011GL048851

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 38, L19401, 5 PP., 2011
doi:10.1029/2011GL048851

Solar motion and discharge of Paraná River, South America: Evidence for a link
Key Points

First evidence for a link between solar motion and South American rivers
We support the hypothesis that solar motion could affect regional climate
Our results could help to improve long-term forecasts of river discharge

A. Antico

CONICET, Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias Hídricas, Universidad Nacional de Litoral, Santa Fe, Argentina

D. M. Kröhling

CONICET, Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias Hídricas, Universidad Nacional de Litoral, Santa Fe, Argentina

A link between climate and the motion of the Sun around the barycenter of the solar system has been suggested, mostly on the basis of interannual cycles observed in climatological data from the Northern Hemisphere. This study provides empirical evidence for a connection between this solar motion and discharge of the Paraná River, which has the second largest drainage basin of South America. Solar motion is described here by the absolute value of the time derivative of solar angular momentum (∣τ∣). For the time period 1904–2008, the time evolution of both ∣τ∣ and river discharge is dominated by cycles with periods between 7 and 9 yr. Within this frequency band, a statistically significant anticorrelation is found between ∣τ∣ and river discharge with minima of ∣τ∣ coinciding with increased river discharge.

Received 9 July 2011; accepted 14 September 2011; published 13 October 2011.

Citation: Antico, A. and D. M. Kröhling (2011), Solar motion and discharge of Paraná River, South America: Evidence for a link, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L19401, doi:10.1029/2011GL048851.

reply to post by wujotvowujotvowujotvo

Interesting idea but it has nothing to do with geomagnetic or Solar activity.
And, of course, correlation does not imply causality. Something that people trying to make connections between Solar activity and earthquakes, etc. seem to have a hard time understanding.
rationalwiki.org...

Considering the Carrington event of 1859 was considered a G5 ...... AT THAT TIME...... did serious damage.

The solar storm of 1859, also known as the 1859 Solar Superstorm,[1] or the Carrington Event,[2] was a powerful solar storm in 1859 during solar cycle 10. It produced the largest known solar flare, which was observed and recorded by Richard C. Carrington.

From August 28, 1859, until September 2, numerous sunspots and solar flares were observed on the sun. Just before noon on September 1, the British astronomer Richard Carrington observed the largest flare,[3] which caused a major coronal mass ejection (CME) to travel directly toward Earth, taking 17 hours. Such a journey normally takes three to four days. This second CME moved so quickly because the first one had cleared the way of the ambient solar wind plasma.[3]

On September 1, 1859, Carrington and Richard Hodgson, another English amateur astronomer, independently made the first observations of a solar flare. Because of a simultaneous "crochet" observed in the Kew Observatory magnetometer record by Balfour Stewart and a geomagnetic storm observed the following day, Carrington suspected a solar-terrestrial connection. Worldwide reports on the effects of the geomagnetic storm of 1859 were compiled and published by Elias Loomis which support the observations of Carrington and Balfour Stewart.

On September 1–2, 1859, the largest recorded geomagnetic storm occurred. Aurorae were seen around the world, even over the Caribbean; those over the Rocky Mountains were so bright that their glow awoke gold miners, who began preparing breakfast because they thought it was morning.[3] People who happened to be awake in the northeastern US could read a newspaper by the aurora's light.[4]

Telegraph systems all over Europe and North America failed, in some cases shocking telegraph operators.[5] Telegraph pylons threw sparks and telegraph paper spontaneously caught fire.[6] Some telegraph systems continued to send and receive messages despite having been disconnected from their power supplies.[7][/b/]

IMHO, we don't know sh#t about CME's, and THAT'S the bottom line. S&F to the OP for calling attention to a possible situation.

Originally posted by Phage
reply to post by solarstorm

 

Only from hearing people talk about geomagnetic activity causing earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, hurricanes, tornadoes, or any other weather fluctuations.

So Phage, as much as I respect and admire you, do you have any facts to back up you points? Hearsay is like gossip, don't mean a thing. I would like to see your facts because a CME is pretty destructive, and we haven't really proven we can forsee it. Definitely can't prevent it. And yet at a certain level that we have already experienced, a greater part of the world was effected, so we are at risk.

Originally posted by Phage
reply to post by wujotvowujotvowujotvo

 

Interesting idea but it has nothing to do with geomagnetic or Solar activity.
And, of course, correlation does not imply causality. Something that people trying to make connections between Solar activity and earthquakes, etc. seem to have a hard time understanding.
rationalwiki.org...

edit on 10/1/2012 by Phage because: (no reason given)

It's a prediction tool.
Changes in the ionosphere prior to a quake,not to be mistaken as a cause.
It's is used to determine certain changes preceding a M8 quake.

igmass.com...

reply to post by Gridrebel

I would like to see your facts because a CME is pretty destructive, and we haven't really proven we can forsee it.

Yes.
A CME can interfere with communications and in severe cases cause problems with the power grid. That is not the same as causing earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, hurricanes, tornadoes, or any other weather fluctuations.

We cannot forecast the occurrance of a CME with much accuracy but once one happens we can make a pretty good call on if and how much effect it will have on us. This past event was forecast three days ago and the forecast was quite accurate.

By late on day two, active levels with a chance for minor to major storm periods are expected due to the arrival of the Earth-directed CME observed early on 28 September. On day three (01 October), continued minor to major storm conditions are expected early in the day, decreasing to mostly quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active periods as effects from the CME wane.

www.swpc.noaa.gov...

reply to post by kdog1982

It's a prediction tool.
Changes in the ionosphere prior to a quake,not to be mistaken as a cause.

I'm aware of that but that is not what the article I was talking about is talking about.

reply to post by Phage


My purpose for this night's posting of studies is because you hide the status of the scientific debate found in the literature on the topic.

Recently NASA gave merit to the scientific hypothesis when it cited 1 paper for a report on Hurricanes as a possible influence among many.

NASA/TP—2011–216466

An Estimate of the North Atlantic Basin
Tropical Cyclone Activity for the 2011
Hurricane Season

Robert M. Wilson
Marshall Space Flight Center, Marshall Space Flight Center, Alabama

June 2011

ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/20110012694_2011013238.pdf

(...)

Since about 1995 (16 seasons), the yearly frequency of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic Basin has been greater, on average, than during the earlier interval 1950–1994 (45 seasons).1–14 In particular, the mean yearly (seasonal) frequency of tropical cyclones is now about 54% greater than what occurred during the earlier interval, the mean yearly frequency of hurricanes is about 41% greater, the mean yearly frequency of major or intense hurricanes is about 63% greater, and the mean yearly frequency of land-falling hurricanes along the coastline of the United States (U.S.) is about 30% greater. How long this current interval of increased yearly frequencies will persist is unknown, possibly being related to whether the increased activity is due to a natural multidecadal-scale variation, the result of ongoing climatic change (i.e., the warming of the Earth’s atmosphere and ocean temperatures), or a combination of both.15–38

During the 2010 hurricane season,39 19 tropical cyclones formed in the North Atlantic Basin, including 12 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes (i.e., those of category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale, which have a sustained peak wind speed (PWS) ≥96 kt, or ≥111 mph). Fortunately, no U.S. land-falling hurricanes occurred, with the year 2010 becoming the 5th year since 1995 and the 13th year since 1950 that had no tropical cyclones striking the U.S. coastline as hurricanes.

(...)

38. Mendoza, B.; and Pazos, M.: “A 22 Yr Hurricane Cycle and Its Relation with Geomagnetic Activity,” J. Atmos. Solar-Terr. Phys., Vol. 71, p. 2047, 2009.

Your single sentence does little to disprove them without fulltext, I will get them after the end of the posts.

Papers from the past 3 years are published and haven't received much attention.

There are differences in the statistical methods, different cycles, and qualitative behaviour.

You also skipped the previous sentence from your second study criticism, there is a strong qualitative link; unlike most of the published studies, it makes that one unique.

Most importantly, both oceans present the highest hurricane–Dst correlations during the ascending part of odd solar cycles and the descending phase of even solar cycles. This shows not only the existence of a 22 yr cycle but also the nature of such periodicity.

With the upmost of respect, in my opinion, there isn't sufficient cause
to say with certainty; Solar winds, CME's, and Geomagnetic storms
have zero effect on weather. Let alone other Earth phenomena.


I'll go away now

reply to post by Phage


you can't really prove geomagnetic activity doesn't effect those things now can you???

A little bone to throw to ya.

VLF Waves, the Ionosphere, and Earthquakes

There is some intriguing research about whether large earthquakes are associated with ionospheric changes caused by electromagnetic signals released by the crushing of rock crystalline structures. If so, then this might be a mechanism for major earthquake prediction. One of the primary researchers in this area is Friedemann Freund, of NASA Ames. He has written several articles introducing the concept of ionospheric and atmospheric changes as earthquake precursors:

According to Freund, "Earthquake forecasters can also watch for changes in the ionosphere by monitoring very-low-frequency (3- to 30-kilohertz) and high-frequency (3- to 30-megahertz) radio transmissions. The strength of a radio signal at a receiver station changes with the diurnal cycle: it is greater at night than in daylight... The altitude of the ionosphere, which moves lower as the positive holes [positively-charged atoms in stressed rock] migrate to the surface, also has an effect on radio signals; the lower the ionosphere, the stronger the signals. So at dawn on an earthquake day, a curve drawn to represent the drop-off in radio signal strength will appear markedly different from the normal curve for that signal at that location." (Earthquake Predictor) That is, Fruend believes that the dawn-dusk signatures will be different for a particular instrument, perhaps even the signal strength as monitored during the day, on the day of a major earthquake.

solar-center.stanford.edu...

For folks who may be interested, I have some things I can offer for the discussion. The first three are charts I carry on one of my sites. 2 are static I picked up along the way from public domain collections or sources and the 3rd is a recent projection/recorded event chart





and, personally I'm not in the mood just recently to do a lot of research involving time spent, but here is a list of major solar storms going back to the 1850's, descriptions of what they did as well as how they impacted things and in many cases with links to much more detailed references on each. One could probably take dates from the link, compare with the charts and see what might make sense for known major disasters that have happened. The few that come to mind seem to have been quiet periods, actually...

Major Solar Storms - 1859 to 2003

Hope that helps a bit.

Originally posted by solarstorm

Originally posted by Phage
reply to post by jassie51289

 

Geomagnetic storming reached G3 levels and subsided about 15 hours ago.
Geomagnetic activity does not cause earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, hurricanes, tornadoes, or any other weather fluctuations.

How about headaches, stomach aches, flatulence, vomiting or any other bodily fluctuations?

edit on 1-10-2012 by solarstorm because: (no reason given)

Dangit! I just farted. Curse you geomagnetic storms!

Originally posted by wujotvowujotvowujotvo
USSR experiments in what is today Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan showed that electricity can increase background seismicity rates/statistics.

The technology used was electricity generated by a Magnetohydrodynamic machine apparatus.

It was physically pumped into the ground via cables, space weather is not fully researched for there to be 100% claim no effect is possible.

That's more like it!! Would explain the ringing in the ears the last day too...

People read one person say there is no connection and they run with it..maybe because its easier than actually doing some testing like the USSR...

They are so far ahead in Tesla technology...they got past the denial and actually started to test...meanwhile some countries just say nope nothing to see here...carry on....meanwhile electromagnetic fields and the associated energy is invisible to the human eye...some people might as well just stick their head in the sand and wait for someone to kick them in the a..s/s..

Its scary dealing with the unknown but the dynamics should be taken seriously...and once they become known we can manipulate them for human kinds betterment...

But then again if people are kept in the dark(pun intended)...they are easier to manipulate to other ends...

BTW we sensitives can feel this...don't tell us otherwise...its like a blind person telling us that light doesn't exist...this is almost literal...how much of the magnetic spectrum do people see with their eyes?? Hmmm what about the 3rd eye and the 2 hemispheres above it...

WAKE UP...RANT OFF...