Buchanan--How Do We Get Out?

www.amconmag.com...

�Today, we lack metrics to know if we are winning or losing,� wrote Rumsfeld a year ago. �Is our current situation such that �the harder we work, the behinder we get�?� We now have metrics to work with. A year ago, Gen. John Abizaid estimated there were 5,000 enemy fighters. After capturing and killing thousands, officials now estimate there are 20,000 enemy. A year ago, there were two dozen attacks every day on coalition forces. According to Kroll Security International, the number is now 70 a day. A year ago, U.S. troops had the run of the country and the press could travel almost anywhere. Now there are �no-go� zones in the Sunni Triangle, and Sadr City is a scene of daily carnage. Outside the Kurdish north, few provinces are free of daily attacks.

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That the number of enemy and incidence of attacks have multiplied fourfold in a year forces us to one conclusion: we are losing this war. For the guerrilla wins if he does not lose, and the Iraqi insurgents are not losing.

How do we win this war? How do we end it? How do we get out without leaving an Iraq that is a far graver terror threat than any Saddam Hussein ever presented?

The Bush strategy appears to be this. Build up Iraqi forces to lead the assault on enemy sanctuaries in the Sunni Triangle, backed by U.S. forces and firepower. Attack and occupy these cities before January. Hold elections that will, by linking slates of candidates, produce an assembly that will maintain the Allawi government in power. Have the United States then give a date for withdrawal of American forces and begin the pullout of troops�to separate the insurgency from Islamists and foreign fighters whose end goal is an Islamist regime. Continue to build up and train the Iraqi army to where it is so large, powerful, and well equipped it can crush any rebellion. Cede maximum autonomy to Kurds and Shi�ites. And head down the road to Kuwait.

What do you think of his opinion?

Well I'm sorry to say this, but Buchannan is half correct. He is correct with his plan, but it will not be as simple as he plans. You really can't set a true date for the withdrawl of American forces. When the Iraqi army gets strong, we'll still be in there, but we will withdraw some of the troops and keep some in there just in case. Then we'll let the army in charge and after a few months or so if it seems they are able to fight the insurgants and hold their ground, we'll more than likely leave. You can't just leave a country that you just liberated with a weak army. Then it'll be taken over again, and you've accomplished absolutely nothing. That is what the plan is gonna be, and I say that we will be out of Iraq in late summer of 2006.

sounds reasonable & coherent to me

but i'm not a tactician or general

I think the idea of dividing up the Iraq into 3; Kurd, Shiite, Sunni 'States'
is the best strategy.

??Would the USA only be repeating the folly of OBL->Mujahhadeen->AQ
...by arming, training an Iraq army as a 'stand alone' fighting machine?

[I think, all said & done, there will spring up a Caliphate to replace Iraq...]